Jamus discusses carbon tax.
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The idea of a carbon tax often strikes most people as a necessary evil: an added cost to businesses that use a lot of dirty energy sources, so that they reduce their usage and transition to cleaner sources. On its face, this is true. And while more sophisticated approaches (such as cap-and-trade, which is basically a plan that fixes an amount of pollution per firm, then allows them to exchange obligations among themselves) exist, the simplicity of a carbon tax is particularly appealing. But what is sometimes forgotten is that carbon taxes are a transition tool: a way to get to a low-carbon economy. If they succeed, the economy will run efficiently on green energy, and the tax won’t be needed anymore. Just as important, we’d like to see the revenue from a carbon tax be deployed toward further greening our economy in the meantime; providing subsidies for firms and households and workers to adopt green technologies and invest in green initiatives.
Now, if we accept that a carbon tax is valuable, the question is how we would go about it. This is a question of practical implementation, and an important one. The government plan is to roll out an incremental increase in the tax, over the next few years. The
#workersparty is on record about our desire to have a higher average rate than the government (they’re at $50-80; we’re at $58-133). Given that end goal, we nevertheless believe that we can exercise some flexibility in getting there, especially with respect to economic conditions.
This means a time-varying carbon tax. While this may sound complicated, it really isn’t. Policymakers often implement policies that cater to where we are in the business cycle, such as altering the interest rate or government spending (we call this monetary or fiscal policy). Stabilization policies aren’t limited to these traditional ones. Something like a carbon tax can be adapted to make things easier for businesses and households during, say, a recession (and vice versa tame exuberance during a boom).
Does this throw businesses off, since they value predictability? I don’t think so, for a couple of reasons. Businesses routinely deal with fluctuations in macro policies, such as changes to the interest or exchange rate (or even the CPF employer share). Indeed, if you offer relief during a tough time, they may appreciate it more than the certainty, per se, even as they know they’ll need to make up for it when times are better (that’s what insurance does). And the notion that a fixed carbon tax is less volatile is itself questionable; a fixed dollar tax per ton is actually more volatile than one that rises and falls according to profit or income, resulting in a stable tax *rate*.
What about other transition tools? Well, MAS is—insofar as central banks are concerned—pretty progressive when it comes to the environment. But one suggestion is to weave green objectives into their day-to-day, such as targeting green bonds in open market operations. Another idea is to set up an export-import bank, targeted at small and medium enterprises, with financing for green projects as part of its mandate. This would assist SMEs not just with internationalization and digitalization, but with environmentalism.
The government had previously considered an ExIm bank, but ruled it out given how EnterpriseSG already fulfilled some of these functions. We actually think that available programs don’t quite serve smaller SMEs that well, nor are green initiatives prioritized. Since meeting environmental goals are already inherently cross-border in nature, enfolding these into trade-related lending is the natural next step, one that may be considered in the context of an ExIm bank here.
#makingyourvotecount
Postscript: Someone recently suggested that I was being inconsistent, having argued for an environmental tax on SIA during the pandemic, but now advocating flexible support for businesses in the rollout of the carbon tax. I went back and looked at my post (you can too, if you wish… I’ll wait). I was gratified to see that my arguments then remain true. Back then, I stressed my belief in both the need for a national airline, as well as the importance of helping our struggling businesses.
But I also said it shouldn’t occur at a cost to the environment. This is the case now, too—I’m not advocating that the carbon tax be dropped for businesses—but that they be adjusted to provide them breathing room during tough economic times. And back then, when SIA was being bailed out, I supported the move; but I believed that environmental taxes that could be passed on to the rich (the kind that would blow money on flights to nowhere) was better than using taxpayer money from the relatively less well-off. Getting those who are richer—whether households or firms—to bear a greater burden for public goods is also a consistent theme of mine. More generally, I think we can go behind simplistic debates where tax = bad, and pay more attention to redistributive effects of taxation.