Jamus suggests alternatives to raising GST.
11 h ·
This month, Parliament debated amendments that would raise the GST, from the current 7, to 9 percent. The
#workersparty opposed the bill, and we have explained why we think alternative revenue sources are available. Now, even if you disagree that we should tap on these alternative revenue sources, it should at least be evident that raising the GST at this time seems to be a pretty bad idea. After all, inflation is still high and rising. This is especially the case for essentials: food—which has jumped by almost 7 percent compared to last year—and energy, which has gone up by more than a quarter.
Raising the GST now is likely to add fuel to the inflation flame. In similar episodes elsewhere in the world, increases in sales taxes have either been inflationary, or neutral at best. At the very least, prices on GST-applicable items are almost certain to jump. With no clear downward trend in inflation, and the virtual impossibility in distinguishing between general price increases and those from profiteering using the GST as an excuse, it’s hard see how a GST now hike wouldn’t make things worse.
We aren’t in dire need for revenue. Existing taxes, levied as a percentage of income or spending, will automatically bring in more as prices rise. And long-term our healthcare spending—the justification for the hike—is increasing only slowly. The effects from the inflation-GST hike double whammy would also hit middle-income families the hardest. These households get the least help from government packages, while facing unavoidable price rises as they spend on necessities.
This makes a strong case for us to consider a temporary exemption on GST for such essential items. The government has previously argued that such a system would be complex and costly to administer. But would it, relative to the system we have now? I’m not so sure. Currently, we have an unwieldy mix of subsidies, credits, vouchers, and rebates. You can call these targeted. But it’s much harder to say that they’re simpler than a GST exemption on essentials. Besides, saying it can’t be done because it’s too complex strikes me as selling ourselves short. Such differentiated GST regimes have been rolled out in Australia, Canada, the UK, and U.S.; it’s even done in developing countries like India and Indonesia!
One final point worth considering: rolling out a temporary exemption for essential items offers an opportunity for us to critically evaluate whether such a regime could work for Singapore. Make it temporary, evaluate its efficacy, then decide whether to keep it or not. The government likes to say that we are pragmatic, and policies must work in our unique setting. But without the data and analysis, how can we know for sure this policy isn’t a good thing? As folks know, the 1 percent GST hike will go ahead next year, as planned. I see this as a lost opportunity for us to roll out a policy that could be very attractive in the long run, while offering precious relief now.
#makingyourvotecount