Jamus is concerned about economic growth.
5 d ·
#Budget2023 debates are about to wrap up in Parliament. Much of the commentary has focused on novel proposals, such as the increase in the CPF ceiling, additional grants for HDB resale, changes to working mothers support. While I had some thoughts about some of these issues (which I shared as well in my speech), much of my budget response focused on the policies proposed that would keep our economy robust in the longer run. These have to do with productivity, labor, and capital.
Singapore’s productivity has languished for a long time. Diagnosing a singular cause of this is hard, but what we can say is that it’s a problem that has been recognized for a long time, but after much study and money and many government agencies later, we remain stuck. The budget’s latest effort is to inject yet more money into a productivity fund, and to an SME coinvestment fund. Public funding for R&D isn’t necessarily bad, but the issue doesn’t seem to be insufficient public spending on innovation. It’s that the private sector—for whatever reason—lags in its R&D expenditures. My sense is that the “D” part of R&D remains underdeveloped (no pun intended), and gaps exist in translating research ideas into marketable products.
Part of this is the need to foster more risk-taking and entrepreneurship, which would be easier if grant money wasn’t always accompanied by annual KPI requirements that tend to create incentives for safer, incremental advances. We want the state to have a share of the upside, without crimping risk-taking too early. To the extent that government gets involved, it could mainly be as a convener. It can host regular sessions and meetups where mature and upstart companies can interact, learn from each other, share ideas, and network. Have officers matchmake. Play the role of Y Combinator.
There are already a number of such efforts, including by Temasek and EDBI. I’ve been told that funding, per se, isn’t the problem; it’s more where it’s being directed to, and the sorts of expectations that accompany taking the cash. In certain areas—where public research institutions like A*Star or our universities a need to be more involved—adopt a public-private partnership (PPP) model. This is especially in biopharma or ICT, where upstream research is more critical.
Related to risk taking is the need for a more durable cushion, should such endeavors fail. That’s where some form of redundancy insurance comes in, as a safety net for involuntary job loss or entrepreneurial failure. There’s actually an interesting analogy between the difficulties faced by folks that have been repeatedly unsuccessful in securing a job, and those who have been made freshly unemployed: you never think it’s gonna happen to you. That’s why insurance, in such instances, is so critical; you don’t need it most of the time, but when you do, you really really need it. And just as redundancy insurance can offer the cash buffer to tide you through till you land on your feet again.
Folks that worry about policy tend to think that such schemes may create perverse incentives to remain unemployed. Setting aside how most people don’t usually want to be dependent on others for a living, it’s still a fair issue to ponder. As it turns out, it’s also not a novel problem. Economists that study this stuff suggest two key mechanisms: keep the payout period brief, but don’t be stingy about the amount of support rendered.
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#workersparty redundancy insurance proposal (broadly) checks these two boxes: our suggested duration of 6 months is about half that common to other countries, while the payout of 40 percent of last drawn salary is pretty decent (it’s almost the same as support the government gave for sectors directly affected by COVID-19, and is above the 25 percent floor everyone got back then. It’s on the conservative side, but we are open to increases contingent on fiscal sustainability and social consensus).
The bulk of the funding would be premia, deducted from wages. At $4-$5 a month, it won’t be onerous, but is nevertheless a strong endorsement of workers taking care of one another. The remainder would be cofunded with government seed capital. If this premium sounds impossibly low, keep in mind the modest payout amounts, how this only covers redundancy (not all unemployment), and the fact that our redundancy rates tend to be quite low, compared to elsewhere.
Finally, what about capital? Like many who have observed that our low labor share of income remains an anomaly for advanced economies, we believe that there is more scope for capital taxation, especially for multinationals (MNCs). Part of this will likely be automatic; we are a signatory of the BEPS treaty, which sets a global minimum capital tax rate for large MNCs, of 15 percent. For now, government has declined to offer much detail on how they will implement BEPS here.
So we are left to make a case in terms of principles. We believe that all MNCs should be treated equally in terms of the corporate tax rate (that’s a big part of what the deal helps countries commit to: avoiding a race to the bottom). We also believe that SMEs should face a substantially lower effective tax burden. Depending on one’s calculations, this isn’t always the case today. This will create a better environment for our local firms to grow and flourish.
Like good food, economic growth is about all the ingredients working together to produce something that is better than just the sum of its parts. Our proposals on labor, capital, and productivity will move us in that direction.
#makingyourvotecount