Will the property market correct 50% or more in the months ahead?

[lifeafter41]

As the Singapore economic situation deteriorates as the months passes. Will private property correct 50% or more from the 2007/08 peak?.

 

[silverfox@]

As the Singapore economic situation deteriorates as the months passes. Will private property correct 50% or more from the 2007/08 peak?.

FYI,
07 was a good year.
08 private transactions were actually much worst than the 97 Asian Financial Crisis and Sars period.

Not going to go into details because I don't have the crystal ball. :p
My opinion is it will go down to 06 levels before it flies.

 

[snooker]

As the Singapore economic situation deteriorates as the months passes. Will private property correct 50% or more from the 2007/08 peak?.

Yes, because this financial crisis is global, worst than Asian financial crisis...it will last around 2 years...

if the gov don't pump $$ n takes drastic measures..property will plunge n lose 60-70% in value:(

 

[lifeafter41]

Yes, because this financial crisis is global, worst than Asian financial crisis...it will last around 2 years...

if the gov don't pump $$ n takes drastic measures..property will plunge n lose 60-70% in value:(

60-70% is pretty drastic. Prices will even be at pre 1997/98 levels?.

 

[shOUTloud]

60-70% is pretty drastic. Prices will even be at pre 1997/98 levels?.

Yeah lor, for an unit worth one million, 10% is 100k leh. 60-70% is 600-700k. anyway shoot off mouth. At that kind of market correction, everyone will jump off building leow. 20-30% would be extreme leow.

 

[eeoror88]

As the Singapore economic situation deteriorates as the months passes. Will private property correct 50% or more from the 2007/08 peak?.

I would say yes only for the very top end developments.

 

[snooker]

Yeah lor, for an unit worth one million, 10% is 100k leh. 60-70% is 600-700k. anyway shoot off mouth. At that kind of market correction, everyone will jump off building leow. 20-30% would be extreme leow.

Look at this thread again by early or mid 2010...most people won't believe in US property slump prediction before this financial crisis, which now devalued by almost 80%.

A $300 psf property has been speculated till $1000 psf by speculator n developer (price check - SEP 08), what do u think will happen when more people lose their jobs in the coming months n banks reluctant to lend out large sum of $?

unless there's gov intervention, sin property will plunge like african currency..

 

[silverfox@]

Look at this thread again by early or mid 2010...most people won't believe in US property slump prediction before this financial crisis, which now devalued by almost 80%.

A $300 psf property has been speculated till $1000 psf by speculator n developer (price check - SEP 08), what do u think will happen when more people lose their jobs in the coming months n banks reluctant to lend out large sum of $?

unless there's gov intervention, sin property will plunge like african currency..

Do you actually know what kind of development comprise of $300 psf?

 

[lifeafter41]

Do you actually know what kind of development comprise of $300 psf?

I was about to ask the same question too.

 

[silverfox@]

I was about to ask the same question too.

I think want to find $300psf can find, but example is Chempaka Kuning area with approx around there or now maybe $400+.

Before everyone become very happy, it has roughly about 30 years left on its lease and this kind of development definitely wouldn't fly to $1000psf. or even $800psf.

For a $800+psf apt to drop to 06 levels would be around $450+ psf.
Landed market, not possible to see this kind of drop. Those who buy landed have quite strong holding power compared to those who buy condo.

$300+psf was in the year 05/06, i have to buy a pc of bare land with an old single storey bungalow, subdivide it, tear down rebuild to build 4 semi-ds.

I don't think I will ever see this kind of price ever again, though I would wish to.

 

[0939]

Its only a paper loss, unless you are speculating.

 

[snooker]

I was about to ask the same question too.

My place (12 units apartment) at upper paya lebar was en-block at 298 psf in 2004(freeehold) now developer asking for $900-1200 psf(depends on size)

within 5 years a $300 psf property, due to market speculation n developer's had made the price jump to approx $1000 psf.. isn't it ?

 

[silverfox@]

My place (12 units apartment) at upper paya lebar was en-block at 298 psf in 2004(freeehold) now developer asking for $900-1200 psf(depends on size)

within 5 years a $300 psf property, due to market speculation n developer's had made the price jump to approx $1000 psf.. isn't it ?

Bro,

when you said $300psf speculated by speculator and developer.
You must understand calculation based on GFA or your unit size. Though your unit is Freehold, but yours is not landed but just an old apartment(most probably walk up)

Given that its at $300psf, for a speculator or developer to sell at its 12 unit condition (as-it-is), it is not possible to hit $1000psf.

The developer that bought over your place definitely tear down, rebuilt the whole place either into landed or apts.
Rebuilding, construction, piling, stamp duty, all are costs. Make it nice, beautiful and then sell again.

If you think your developer makes a lot, then you passed the opportunity to buy up your whole estate to redevelop. Even if you say sell $800psf, I think you will still make money. It's all business.

BTW, when you say you let it go at 298psf, may I know what was the launching price you got for your old apartment? Don't tell me you lost money from the enbloc.

30 years ago, 1 landed terrace 2000sqft only $30K. 30 years later, 1.3million.
How many folds increase is that? Do you think in 30 years time, it will drop anywhere near $30K or even $300K?:o

 

[VIBGYOR]

Basic principle of investing...for a perfect market...

Sell High Buy Low!!

 

[numero uno]

Look at this thread again by early or mid 2010...most people won't believe in US property slump prediction before this financial crisis, which now devalued by almost 80%.

A $300 psf property has been speculated till $1000 psf by speculator n developer (price check - SEP 08), what do u think will happen when more people lose their jobs in the coming months n banks reluctant to lend out large sum of $?

unless there's gov intervention, sin property will plunge like african currency..

very possible. UK home prices have drop 40% in 6 months only!!!!!!!!! USA home prices on the whole have drop 30%-50% in past one year and in some counties have drop 80% or even more so much that the value of the property is less than the value of the outstanding mortgage i.e. negative equity!!!! in Spain the properties have crashed 40% in two months. That's why they called it subprime crises.
In Singapore this would be worse and if you read the papers esp the shitty times and read the "in between" lines you get the hint that the government is NOT going to support the property business anymore as It is a very bad and expensive mistake all the countries are learning from .
A high property price means a high mortgage which means a higher salary as disposable income is limited and in times like these with retrenchment and inflation, the govt just do not have the resources to pump in money to prop up a dying market as they ahve to ration out welfare to the poor. they just cannot let the property prices go up as it means more unhappiness and more wage increases and price singapore out of the world competitiveness markets. all these talk about asset enhancement is just hog wash as you cannot eat a house nor make money out of it when the economy is bad(already rentals are falling 20-30%). whether your HDB flat is worth $200K or #$300K is immaterial as you still have to stay in it. if you downgrade who is going to buy unless you have a steady stream of foreigers or PR but in a worsening economy they are leaving not coming in!!!
just think about it. it's not so simple as the previous model of high property prices is what drag USA, UK, Japan,HK, singapore etc into BIG trouble. all these subprime crises benefit only a very few people like the property agents and developers but ultimately bankrupt the nation and the common people. that's why malboro tan told that simon chap and REDAS guys to go fly kite when they ask govt to prop up the market.

 

[silverfox@]

very possible. UK home prices have drop 40% in 6 months only!!!!!!!!!
it's not so simple as the previous model of high property prices is what drag USA, UK, Japan,HK, singapore etc into BIG trouble. all these subprime crises benefit only a very few people like the property agents and developers but ultimately bankrupt the nation and the common people. that's why malboro tan told that simon chap and REDAS guys to go fly kite when they ask govt to prop up the market.

In 05/06 period alone, when I was out sourcing for lands, it was very funny. The property market was weak. Though not as weak as now, but when I go viewing, it is a very common sight. You see couples viewing as well.

Everytime I went, I sure see couple discussing that though they like the place, they gonna wait for market to drop further as it is buyers market. I start to think why these people keep procrastinating about such things if they are seriously looking for a home. For me, its work, its more important for us to buy it cheap so that my company can redevelop or purchase for our group of investors. I should be the one procrastinating or think more.

People don't buy or don't dare to buy, we buy. 06, we bought quite a few pieces of land, redevelop and by 07, many were out for launches. The funny part was when my agents appointed by my company to do the marketing, they come tell me, they got buyers who have seen the same place in 05/06, that time very cheap.

That time very cheap why don't buy, no point procrastinating 2 years later come and say this house last time sell so cheap. I redevelop, I sell, I will want to make a profit.

I am not saying now is a time to buy, but now is a time to shop around for a feel of the market. Buy if can hold, if cannot hold, don't buy property and invest. And by the end of the discussion, what I am trying to say is no one will know when the market will down or when the market will go up.

BTW, marlboro tan can go fly kite. When the share market is on a bull run, the property market will move up. His HDB flats can sell better only when pte market is high, if now pte market goin to drop, 4 months after that, HDB prices will climb down the staircase too,

 

[snooker]

very possible. UK home prices have drop 40% in 6 months only!!!!!!!!! USA home prices on the whole have drop 30%-50% in past one year and in some counties have drop 80% or even more so much that the value of the property is less than the value of the outstanding mortgage i.e. negative equity!!!! in Spain the properties have crashed 40% in two months. That's why they called it subprime crises.
In Singapore this would be worse and if you read the papers esp the shitty times and read the "in between" lines you get the hint that the government is NOT going to support the property business anymore as It is a very bad and expensive mistake all the countries are learning from .
A high property price means a high mortgage which means a higher salary as disposable income is limited and in times like these with retrenchment and inflation, the govt just do not have the resources to pump in money to prop up a dying market as they ahve to ration out welfare to the poor. they just cannot let the property prices go up as it means more unhappiness and more wage increases and price singapore out of the world competitiveness markets. all these talk about asset enhancement is just hog wash as you cannot eat a house nor make money out of it when the economy is bad(already rentals are falling 20-30%). whether your HDB flat is worth $200K or #$300K is immaterial as you still have to stay in it. if you downgrade who is going to buy unless you have a steady stream of foreigers or PR but in a worsening economy they are leaving not coming in!!!
just think about it. it's not so simple as the previous model of high property prices is what drag USA, UK, Japan,HK, singapore etc into BIG trouble. all these subprime crises benefit only a very few people like the property agents and developers but ultimately bankrupt the nation and the common people. that's why malboro tan told that simon chap and REDAS guys to go fly kite when they ask govt to prop up the market.

from your view, I can tell u are well traveled person... good luck to those that listen to housing agent n developer's bullshitt about buying now as it's gonna be expensive next year...

In fact, I expect some developer to declare bankruptcy by end of the year:p

 

[holyman]

Facts:

(1) go along sixth avenue quite a number of units going for sale.

(2) several global billionaires have committed suicide what say the slightly above average in income.

(3) most likely large numbers of foreigners will be retrenched...this means no HDB rental income for some to pay/topup for loan on condo or house...what if these people have a pay freeze, cut or even retrenched...they will have to let go at a lower price and downgrade, at least 20% lower...

(4) banks unwilling to lend...i am 32 and can plonk down $100K in cash for a $500K condo and service $2000 cash a month, but I only earn $3K plus...dont think they will lend...heard that even angmoh earning $10K a month in MNC cannot get $40K car loan from my agent fren...

 

[2lanu]

If anyone still remember Old Lee said not long ago, he said that SG is no longer the same compared to 10 years ago. Now it is going to be a vibrant city with hubs, leisure, work and have fun something like that.

Of course with so many "factor" plug into this tiny dot, the land price will shoot up esp in the boom time. And now during gloomy time like this grave one, people will "discount" these "factor" value by a lot more.

How much more depend on individual.

 

[lifeafter41]

Facts:

(1) go along sixth avenue quite a number of units going for sale.

(2) several global billionaires have committed suicide what say the slightly above average in income.

(3) most likely large numbers of foreigners will be retrenched...this means no HDB rental income for some to pay/topup for loan on condo or house...what if these people have a pay freeze, cut or even retrenched...they will have to let go at a lower price and downgrade, at least 20% lower...

(4) banks unwilling to lend...i am 32 and can plonk down $100K in cash for a $500K condo and service $2000 cash a month, but I only earn $3K plus...dont think they will lend...heard that even angmoh earning $10K a month in MNC cannot get $40K car loan from my agent fren...

At 32, don't even have 10k, much less 100k.