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Will the property market correct 50% or more in the months ahead?

numero uno

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from your view, I can tell u are well traveled person... good luck to those that listen to housing agent n developer's bullshitt about buying now as it's gonna be expensive next year...

In fact, I expect some developer to declare bankruptcy by end of the year:p

you are right. seen and travelled the whole world and this recession is the worst. The crappy thing is the shitty times is hiding all these bad news as SPH obviously has alot of vested interests. Go overseas and read their local papers and they are far more objective. almost all countries overseas have their property market down by 30-50 % average and the most frightening thing is the rate of fall ie all happening in 4-6 months!!!! singapore is no exception and with an open economy probably worst and the fall might be 50-70%. this is not an unrealistic figure. afterall in 2006 if you tell local people that 2008 and 2009 would see the worst recession, bankers and property agenst would laugh at you for being "unrealistic" with all the IR hype ongoing(even las vegas sands shares has drop 95% and nobody foresee it).
it is so bad that you have alot of rich people in europe and US literally killing themselves(suicides) and the newspapers only published the famous and very rich ones. you don't hear of suicides in the 96/97 ccrises, 2000 dot com bust, 2003 post 911 crash but you hear of suicides now almost every week of some people in europe, HK, USA and soon singapore when alot of speculators are going to get hit very hard.
here expects the tsunami to hit hard with minus 5% growth and expected 300,000 people unemplyed/retrenched. one by one the category COEs are dropping to $2 and $200. soon the big category COEs would hit $1. all the signs are there and you still have local property agents and house sellers talking crap and asking unrealistic prices.
 

Mee Poh Man

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Look at this thread again by early or mid 2010...most people won't believe in US property slump prediction before this financial crisis, which now devalued by almost 80%.

A $300 psf property has been speculated till $1000 psf by speculator n developer (price check - SEP 08), what do u think will happen when more people lose their jobs in the coming months n banks reluctant to lend out large sum of $?

unless there's gov intervention, sin property will plunge like african currency..

it is mid 2010. any comments from the floor?
 

Charlie258

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Loyal
it is mid 2010. any comments from the floor?

All predictions are correct. It is just the timing that is always a little bit off.

Singapore property will crash lower than Phnom Penh or Zimbabwe. But only after hitting S$2,500 psf. Savvy investors will all have gotten out with huge profits. The wet-behind-the-ears amateurs will be left holding the big bag of sh*t!!!
 

longbow

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Loyal
No dramatic correction lah. Maybe for the upper end but HDB and condos catering to upgraders should remain strong. Singapore is the only market outside of N Korea where the Gov controls 90 percent of housing stock. So they can easily adj regulation to support market.

Question to ask is how did the Gov create so many jobs! Read that there are 200K Indian Ft in Singapore. OK maybe 120K working as labourers but what about the 80K? As an indication - DBS, the largest local bank alone only employs 14K people. So who is employing the 80K FT indians. What about the white collar FT PRC. What about white collar Ang Mor, Filipinos. We must be attracting a lot of companies to set up operations here in Singapore and that is generating the jobs. Maybe we offer a lot of tax savings as well as shield HNW from taxes.

As long as jobs are there, market should remain vibrant. Every body needs a place to sleep at night!
 

besotted

Alfrescian
Loyal
maybe correct 5%

westernised youngsters hoping to slack will be dissapointed

must make sure they work 30 years to pay off their mortgage

otherwise they think the whole world owes them a living

that s why i love this country - we value hard work
 

longbow

Alfrescian
Loyal
Come to think of it. Ang Mor buy nice car, after 1 year, abruptly leaves, what can the bank do? He tells the bank sorry, got laid off got to leave.

It is pointless for the bank to try and sue him in his country. That is probably why they do not want to loan for cars.
 

Brightkid

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Loyal
Looking at the bigger picture, the question that begs an answer may be :

What competitive advantage does Singapore has over her neighbours and how long it will last ? Is it difficult at all to study and improve on Singapore's model to create their own competitive edge ?

Further, with the world economic powers such as US, Europe, Japan and recently China may be facing un-reported fundamental economic problems, how will Singapore be impacted ?

With the bulk of private/public housing projects coming into TOP in 2011 through 2015, there bound to be selling pressure especially when interest rate shoots up. Most project that went/going TOP now was bought around $600-$700psf. Now reselling at $1000psf to even $1500psf. So market correction of up to 50% is not impossible as these seller do not loose $ still.

Just waiting for a correction. A really big one, imo.
 

longbow

Alfrescian
Loyal
Looking at the bigger picture, the question that begs an answer may be :

What competitive advantage does Singapore has over her neighbours and how long it will last ? Is it difficult at all to study and improve on Singapore's model to create their own competitive edge ?

I am trying to get grips on Singapore's model of success. It has managed to find jobs for the hundreds of thousands of FT. Singapore is not a cheap place to live so these are good jobs that we are talking about. So big question is what are the businesses coming over to Singapore?? A large project like Sands only needs 5K workers. And we have brought in many hundreds of thousands. amazing right.

Once we know what attracts these businesses then we can see if Singapore is vulnerable.
 

Brightkid

Alfrescian
Loyal
I am trying to get grips on Singapore's model of success. It has managed to find jobs for the hundreds of thousands of FT. Singapore is not a cheap place to live so these are good jobs that we are talking about. So big question is what are the businesses coming over to Singapore?? A large project like Sands only needs 5K workers. And we have brought in many hundreds of thousands. amazing right.

Once we know what attracts these businesses then we can see if Singapore is vulnerable.

Good question in the red highlighted sentence. I have not really come across big business that hired lots of people. Maybe I missed them out.

You will be able to find many threads in this and all other forums that when a FT Head of department/regional biz is hired, you can bet a sure-win bet that many local VERY likely will be forced out (not using label of retrenched) to make way for the villages of FTs to come in.

To MOM, these positions were 'created' after the local were 'forced' to leave, one way or another.

This scenario can be seen in many organisations, especially foreign MNCs.

Amd I am only talking about skilled and managerial positions which many local can do the job but were displaced.

Can you vouich that no Singaporean can do secretary, marketing, or department manager roles and require FTs to do it ?

I do not dispute in areas of constructions, tough work conditions industries, that Singaporean really shunts, we need the FW (note difference between FW and FT!)
 
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