Jamus is concerned about inflation.
9 hrs ·
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’d probably be aware that things have been getting more expensive lately (if still
In doubt, scroll through your friends’ social media feeds for complaints about overpriced “economy” rice). What has made stuff pricier of late? Global events, like disruptions in food production due to the war in Ukraine, or supply chain breakdowns from lockdowns in Chinese factories play a part. So do tight labor markets, as workers bid up wages. But no small part of it is due to expectations itself. Inflation is a funny thing. It isn’t just due to real changes in demand and supply. It can spike because everyone thinks it will, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
That part is scary, since it can go on longer than we think it should. But such price increases may actually be somewhat illusory; if everything just becomes twice as expensive (including your salary), it’s not such a big deal. The trick is to make sure that if this happens, our wages keep up with rising prices. Usually, labor markets are pretty good about doing so (especially when you kaopeh your boss for a raise because, well, inflation), after some time. Financial markets do a decent job too, as long as they’re allowed time to work. If traders think the business-as-usual rate of inflation is going to be 4 percent instead of 2, they’ll eventually price in this higher “inflation premium.”
This issue is for those who happen to live on fixed incomes. Without an adjustment, the real savings of retirees or assistance received for those on financial aid will permanently buy less than before. These folks need help now. Thankfully, such an adjustment exists: it’s called the interest rate. Higher interest rates pass along the somewhat artificial price increases to you and I, and ensures that, if you’re a saver, you don’t inadvertently lose purchasing power. Problem is, CPF rates—which are tied to local banks’ interest rates—haven’t adjusted upward. But in the meantime, costs are rising. It seems fair for the government to make up for higher inflation faced, with temporarily higher CPF rates.
Will this be costly? In the very short run, sure. But governments aren’t supposed to be saving money because they end up paying a reduced interest bill due to inflation. That would amount to a stealth tax. Rather, they should increase CPF interest payouts to keep accountholders whole, at least temporarily. And when financial markets eventually price in this inflation premium into government debt, this will automatically be reflected in their (higher) borrowing costs.
Incidentally, if you’re a borrower, higher CPF rates could have implications for you, too. Those with mortgages on their flats may face higher monthly payments, since HDB loan rates are tied to the CPF rate. To limit the impact of this policy for those with outstanding mortgages with HDB, the government could temporarily lock in the current low rate for HDB loans, for say 6 months. This will give some breathing space for households already struggling with high costs of living.
Now, you may also protest: whether you’re rich or poor, almost everyone that is part of the Singaporean core will have a CPF account. So as long as you’re a saver, you’ll benefit from higher returns, regardless of your wealth. But for almost all of these folks, the higher rate will simply be an adjustment to the fact that everything has risen in price. Put another way, this move seeks to restore everyone’s purchasing power, to what it was before the inflation surge. If we wish to tax wealth, we should do it explicitly (as the
#workersparty has called for), not do it with a stealth inflation tax. It ensures accountability, while ensuring that those least able to afford it do not bear the burden of higher prices not of their own doing.
#makingyourvotecount
Postscript: the magic of this proposal is that it need not entail much fiscal outlay at all. Higher CPF rates can be funded by higher rates paid by Special Singapore Government Securities (SSGS), which is how the government pays CPF. Then, if our sovereign wealth funds are doing their job, they would be investing in foreign bonds, which have been faster in pricing in this inflation premium. They also invest for the long run, where returns will likewise do the same. They should earn back what they are giving out now. Even locking in HDB loan rates for borrowers could entail minimal costs. The government just needs to issue all required debt for the future now, at current rates. They won’t be making money, but they shouldn’t, when things are so difficult for the people now.