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Thailand is burning
- Thread starter myo539
- Start date
It's just not tourism alone - the whole economy could be affected. The rich guys in the anti-govt demo can afford it - they have the money - to pay allowances for the ruffians to create havoc, to pay for the food and drinks for the thousands, etc they have tons of money - from don't know where.
Do the ordinary Thais deserve it? Do you think these so-called civilised hijackers deserve more grenades?
Wah in India, they hijack hotels and kill hostages, in Somalia they hijack ships and kill hostages, in Bali they simply bomb the tourists, but in Thailand they hijack airports and sell food and drinks to hostages.
Anyone been to Golden Mile lately? What's the mood there? Are most Thais here for or against the Demo headed by the tycoon Limthongku? Will the pro and anti-govt Thai fight it out at Golden Mile? Or are they simply bochap and trying to earn an honest living here to feed their family back home?
let analyse what will happen next
RED grenade YELLOW
YELLOW shoot RED
ARMY COUP GOV
RED attack ARMY
muslim south sense the chance , strike the army
cambodia sense the chance, strike the army
red continue to kill YELLOW
no tourists will come
investor withdraw their money
baht collapse into worthless note
whole country bankrupt
meanwhile red and yellow continue to kill each other
THIS IS THE WORSE possible scenario
what does people think about my crystal ball??
RED grenade YELLOW
YELLOW shoot RED
ARMY COUP GOV
RED attack ARMY
muslim south sense the chance , strike the army
cambodia sense the chance, strike the army
red continue to kill YELLOW
no tourists will come
investor withdraw their money
baht collapse into worthless note
whole country bankrupt
meanwhile red and yellow continue to kill each other
THIS IS THE WORSE possible scenario
what does people think about my crystal ball??
The Thai King's birthday is on the 5th December.
Wonder this time what kind of celebrations they going to have in the Kingdom.
:o
Wonder this time what kind of celebrations they going to have in the Kingdom.
:o
Donations are being forwarded by those supporters and food from food establishment (supporters) are donated to them.
This is a clear example of a sinkie who knows nothing and sprout nonsense here. One addition to sinkie behavior thread. Thank you.
Pathetic fako thai citizen. Si mi also sinkie here sinkie there. You really need to be on medication or see a psychiatrist. :o
Sometimes I don't know whether to be sarcastic to you here or pity you.
You have let your hatred boil to an extent where you no longer are able to differentiate what is right thing to do and what is wrong.
Yes, you can say PAD are right to storm the airport demanding that the govt comes down. So? Let's say they get their own way.
Then PAD gets a new govt consisting of the people they want. How about Thaksin's supporters who decide to follow what PAD did. Will you agree what these supporters did are going to be right as to what PAD did?
You should take a serious look at the last telephone call which Thaksin made to Thailand. close to 100,000 supporters.
A majority are all still in provinces with support for him. No matter how much the PAD hates him, compared to what Thaksin has done for the people, (even if he is corrupted), what has the PAD done except to request for re-election after election? The only thing they did was to act like terrorist invading govt house, invading airports, making many thai people with no jobs, and many of them are going to be jobless, and no money.
I couldn't have said this better! Kudos to u. This chap sh have been born illiterate. He is classic example of what a little education can make an ass-hole like this.
You forget to add that Thailand will have 5 million more cheap prostitutes.
bro silverfox,
no need try to talk sense to thai pimp..
he just know how to sinkie here n there.. not long ago he was commending thais for getting rid of thaksin.. it would be bloody ironic if the thais want thaksin back now..
wonder what excuse would thai pimp cook up if this really happens..
thai pimp tonygay :oIo: dun talk cock, join the thais to protest in airport, get a thai citizenship and rot there..
no need try to talk sense to thai pimp..
he just know how to sinkie here n there.. not long ago he was commending thais for getting rid of thaksin.. it would be bloody ironic if the thais want thaksin back now..
wonder what excuse would thai pimp cook up if this really happens..
thai pimp tonygay :oIo: dun talk cock, join the thais to protest in airport, get a thai citizenship and rot there..
The majority will want Thaksin back. If Thaksin is allowed to form a new party to go for elections. He has won landslide victories in elections 4 times. Not once not twice. Some people simply do not understand.
If Thaksin was around the helm, he would have handled this case with an iron fist and the situation would never escalate to such an extent as to causing the airport to be closed for almost a week and still counting.
It's like terrorists attacking the airport. Just that this time, its those people who said they did this for love. They are going to cripple it further by going at the port harbours.
It's like a love lorn psycho sick man who says he kills all those man who wink at his girlfriend. He can even explain he did all these because of his love. That is why I say these people are mentally sick.
The Reds will be marching to the airports to beat up the Yellows. As most are blue collar workers and farmers, you will imagine the Yellows will cry mummy and scream genocide. The police or army will then move in.
End of Chapter 1.
The King will step in and say.. we are all Thais, let's not fight. The Red and Yellow leaders, with Army and Police Chiefs will prostrate in front of the King to seek forgiveness and end violence.
End of Chapter 2.
New Elections will be called. PPP will be re-elected. PPP will attempt to show they are willing to share power with other parties. Will PAD accept this?
Start New Book.
End of Chapter 1.
The King will step in and say.. we are all Thais, let's not fight. The Red and Yellow leaders, with Army and Police Chiefs will prostrate in front of the King to seek forgiveness and end violence.
End of Chapter 2.
New Elections will be called. PPP will be re-elected. PPP will attempt to show they are willing to share power with other parties. Will PAD accept this?
Start New Book.
29 November 2008
Politics airport-style
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seizing an airport and stranding a reported 90,000 travellers in Bangkok with no way to fly out of the city is certainly headline-grabbing. News media tell the story in many ways, from political moves to inconvenienced-man-in-the-street tales, but I see very little that attempts to explain the bigger picture.
PAD supporters occupy the passenger terminal of Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi airport
Part of the reason why it may be hard, at least for formal media organisations, to tell the story is because it involves the royal family and Thailand's strict lese majesté law makes it a crime to mention royalty in unflattering light. Like Singapore's use of defamation suits and more recently contempt of court laws, the lese majesté law has the effect of creating self-censorship.
What is happening in Thailand this year is really a war of succession. This is a classic kind of conflict that arises when a political era has ended or is coming to an end and various powers jostle to seize the upper hand for the next period. The era that is ending is the reign of King Rama IX (Bhumibol Adulyadej), but apparently, you're not even supposed to insinuate that!
For much of his reign, Thailand has been ruled alternately by military dictatorships and short-lived parliamentary governments. Whether one or the other, generals, politicians and senior civil servants have been drawn from the social elite, who have mostly served the interests of their own class. Thailand is relatively business-friendly because this class owns a lot of businesses. Development is centred on Bangkok, because this class is mostly based in the capital, while much of Thailand remains dirt-poor. The wealth gap between those who live in upscale Suan Phlu condominiums and their maids' families back in a rural village is shocking.
A typical villager's house in Surin province, Thailand
Despite these tensions, social peace has been maintained through a triad of reasons:
Firstly, Thai governments, whatever their ilk, have not done absolutely nothing for the provinces; they have done at least the minimum, such as extending the electrical grid, building roads and providing schools, that provides a semblance of progress.
Secondly, Bhumibol is genuinely popular. He spent many years criss-crossing the country listening to country folk and it is largely through his personal influence that Thai governments have not completely neglected the provinces. (But see also the box at right.)
Thirdly, Thai culture is not yet fully modern. It sees social stratification as normal and people accommodate themselves to this fact of life through a complex system of patronage. Higher-ups are respected for the gifts that they occasionally shower on poorer folk, who return the favour with loyalty; at no time do people question why some chaps are rich and powerful enough to dispense patronage and why others must remain receivers of charity.
While respect for the king is definitely genuine, it should also be noted that there has been a huge amount of propaganda over the decades building up the image of the monarchy. In Thailand, one is frequently struck by the excessive, usually obsequious, display of engineered adulation.
Despite the spread of schools, educational standards are still poor and (I believe) a majority of children in the provinces do not finish middle school. What is produced is a large pool of minimally-educated workers who are able to staff the production lines, restaurants and hotels of booming Bangkok and its industrial estates, but who do not expect the social mobility to ever challenge the place of the elite.
Then came the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and Thaksin Shinawatra. The first felled many rich Thais who had over-extended themselves by borrowing abroad (at fixed exchange rates) to fund their domestic investments. The moment the Thai central bank could not maintain the exchange rate and was forced to devalue the baht, whole swathes of rich Thai society were financially crippled. Large projects in Bangkok stood unfinished. Suddenly, the upper class of Thai society did not look so permanent after all.
Thaksin after an election victory
Into this situation burst Thaksin Shawatra, who was already a tycoon before he entered politics. In 2001, he won the general election -– then considered one of the most open, corruption-free elections ever held -- becoming prime minister. His government promptly instituted a series of populist measures, including the 30-baht healthcare scheme that brought state healthcare within reach of many rural families for the first time.
With his popularity so cemented, he proved he could win successive elections. In 2005, his Thai Rak Thai party swept 374 seats in the 500-seat lower house. This model for winning elections -– appealing to the interests of the provincial masses -– would prove highly threatening to the Bangkok elite. For the first time, they had to contemplate a government that did not depend on them, or on the royal court, for favours.
Accusations were hurled at him about corruption, vote-buying, and so on, and possibly some of the charges may well be true, though in the present charged, partisan atmosphere, it is difficult to get an impartial view as to the real facts.
Sondhi Limthongkul
Before long, Sondhi Limthongkul, a media magnate, emerged as the point man for the anti-Thaksin campaign. From the beginning, Sondhi and his People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) were reputed to enjoy support from not only a cross section of the Bangkok elite, but from the court as well.
Propelling his campiagn was a sense that the political equation in Thailand had changed. The docile masses had tasted the power of their voting rights, and would in time become more and more assertive. Through Thaksin's party, they would become the new permanent majority in Thailand's politics, sidelining the old order.
So came the coup of September 2006 and a short period of military rule. Yet, it changed nothing, for when elections under a new constitution were held again in December 2007, the People Power Party (PPP), the successor to the banned Thai Rak Thai, became the largest party in parliament, and with a few allies, formed the post-coup government.
That's when the PAD changed its tune. From asserting that its campaign was against Thaksin's corrupt politics, it finally came out to say that its aim was to rewrite the constitution to make future parliaments 70 percent appointed. The masses were not to be trusted with the vote because, according to Sondhi, they were "ill-educated" and prone to selling their vote.
This is an admission that one leg of the triad that kept the old order in place has been knocked out. The masses have been empowered through their experience of Thaksin-style populism and they are not likely to go back to their meek selves.
But who would be doing the appointing of the 70 percent? Nobody ever details that.
Another leg is cracking too. King Bhumibol is now frail. He will turn 81 next month. The crown prince enjoys nothing like the same reverence that the old king does. When Bhumibol goes, the second leg of the triad goes too.
That this prospect figures strongly in the PAD's calculations was seen when -- I wish I had kept the quote and reference -- Sondhi let slip that the matter was urgent: The problem had to be solved before the royal succession.
Everybody in Thailand knows, but no one is saying it: The royal court is one of the key parties behind the PAD. Why? They need to institutionalise their grip on power before the informal influence wielded by the old king fades into history. At the same time, this faction has wide support among the Bangkok elite because they too see their interests threatened when future governments are beholden to the provincial masses rather than to them.
This is why I say it's a classic war of succession. Who would hold sway over the future of Thailand post-Bhumibol? As the king's health deteriorates, the battle becomes ever more desperate -- to the extent of seizing the airport and cutting off Bangkok from the rest of the world. The PAD and its backers see it as an existential struggle. That being the case, it hardly matters whether Thailand's economy is destroyed in the process, because if they fail, they'd be destroyed.
Singaporeans might ask the question: when will it be our turn?
© Yawning Bread
Politics airport-style
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seizing an airport and stranding a reported 90,000 travellers in Bangkok with no way to fly out of the city is certainly headline-grabbing. News media tell the story in many ways, from political moves to inconvenienced-man-in-the-street tales, but I see very little that attempts to explain the bigger picture.
PAD supporters occupy the passenger terminal of Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi airport
Part of the reason why it may be hard, at least for formal media organisations, to tell the story is because it involves the royal family and Thailand's strict lese majesté law makes it a crime to mention royalty in unflattering light. Like Singapore's use of defamation suits and more recently contempt of court laws, the lese majesté law has the effect of creating self-censorship.
What is happening in Thailand this year is really a war of succession. This is a classic kind of conflict that arises when a political era has ended or is coming to an end and various powers jostle to seize the upper hand for the next period. The era that is ending is the reign of King Rama IX (Bhumibol Adulyadej), but apparently, you're not even supposed to insinuate that!
For much of his reign, Thailand has been ruled alternately by military dictatorships and short-lived parliamentary governments. Whether one or the other, generals, politicians and senior civil servants have been drawn from the social elite, who have mostly served the interests of their own class. Thailand is relatively business-friendly because this class owns a lot of businesses. Development is centred on Bangkok, because this class is mostly based in the capital, while much of Thailand remains dirt-poor. The wealth gap between those who live in upscale Suan Phlu condominiums and their maids' families back in a rural village is shocking.
A typical villager's house in Surin province, Thailand
Despite these tensions, social peace has been maintained through a triad of reasons:
Firstly, Thai governments, whatever their ilk, have not done absolutely nothing for the provinces; they have done at least the minimum, such as extending the electrical grid, building roads and providing schools, that provides a semblance of progress.
Secondly, Bhumibol is genuinely popular. He spent many years criss-crossing the country listening to country folk and it is largely through his personal influence that Thai governments have not completely neglected the provinces. (But see also the box at right.)
Thirdly, Thai culture is not yet fully modern. It sees social stratification as normal and people accommodate themselves to this fact of life through a complex system of patronage. Higher-ups are respected for the gifts that they occasionally shower on poorer folk, who return the favour with loyalty; at no time do people question why some chaps are rich and powerful enough to dispense patronage and why others must remain receivers of charity.
While respect for the king is definitely genuine, it should also be noted that there has been a huge amount of propaganda over the decades building up the image of the monarchy. In Thailand, one is frequently struck by the excessive, usually obsequious, display of engineered adulation.
Despite the spread of schools, educational standards are still poor and (I believe) a majority of children in the provinces do not finish middle school. What is produced is a large pool of minimally-educated workers who are able to staff the production lines, restaurants and hotels of booming Bangkok and its industrial estates, but who do not expect the social mobility to ever challenge the place of the elite.
Then came the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and Thaksin Shinawatra. The first felled many rich Thais who had over-extended themselves by borrowing abroad (at fixed exchange rates) to fund their domestic investments. The moment the Thai central bank could not maintain the exchange rate and was forced to devalue the baht, whole swathes of rich Thai society were financially crippled. Large projects in Bangkok stood unfinished. Suddenly, the upper class of Thai society did not look so permanent after all.
Thaksin after an election victory
Into this situation burst Thaksin Shawatra, who was already a tycoon before he entered politics. In 2001, he won the general election -– then considered one of the most open, corruption-free elections ever held -- becoming prime minister. His government promptly instituted a series of populist measures, including the 30-baht healthcare scheme that brought state healthcare within reach of many rural families for the first time.
With his popularity so cemented, he proved he could win successive elections. In 2005, his Thai Rak Thai party swept 374 seats in the 500-seat lower house. This model for winning elections -– appealing to the interests of the provincial masses -– would prove highly threatening to the Bangkok elite. For the first time, they had to contemplate a government that did not depend on them, or on the royal court, for favours.
Accusations were hurled at him about corruption, vote-buying, and so on, and possibly some of the charges may well be true, though in the present charged, partisan atmosphere, it is difficult to get an impartial view as to the real facts.
Sondhi Limthongkul
Before long, Sondhi Limthongkul, a media magnate, emerged as the point man for the anti-Thaksin campaign. From the beginning, Sondhi and his People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) were reputed to enjoy support from not only a cross section of the Bangkok elite, but from the court as well.
Propelling his campiagn was a sense that the political equation in Thailand had changed. The docile masses had tasted the power of their voting rights, and would in time become more and more assertive. Through Thaksin's party, they would become the new permanent majority in Thailand's politics, sidelining the old order.
So came the coup of September 2006 and a short period of military rule. Yet, it changed nothing, for when elections under a new constitution were held again in December 2007, the People Power Party (PPP), the successor to the banned Thai Rak Thai, became the largest party in parliament, and with a few allies, formed the post-coup government.
That's when the PAD changed its tune. From asserting that its campaign was against Thaksin's corrupt politics, it finally came out to say that its aim was to rewrite the constitution to make future parliaments 70 percent appointed. The masses were not to be trusted with the vote because, according to Sondhi, they were "ill-educated" and prone to selling their vote.
This is an admission that one leg of the triad that kept the old order in place has been knocked out. The masses have been empowered through their experience of Thaksin-style populism and they are not likely to go back to their meek selves.
But who would be doing the appointing of the 70 percent? Nobody ever details that.
Another leg is cracking too. King Bhumibol is now frail. He will turn 81 next month. The crown prince enjoys nothing like the same reverence that the old king does. When Bhumibol goes, the second leg of the triad goes too.
That this prospect figures strongly in the PAD's calculations was seen when -- I wish I had kept the quote and reference -- Sondhi let slip that the matter was urgent: The problem had to be solved before the royal succession.
Everybody in Thailand knows, but no one is saying it: The royal court is one of the key parties behind the PAD. Why? They need to institutionalise their grip on power before the informal influence wielded by the old king fades into history. At the same time, this faction has wide support among the Bangkok elite because they too see their interests threatened when future governments are beholden to the provincial masses rather than to them.
This is why I say it's a classic war of succession. Who would hold sway over the future of Thailand post-Bhumibol? As the king's health deteriorates, the battle becomes ever more desperate -- to the extent of seizing the airport and cutting off Bangkok from the rest of the world. The PAD and its backers see it as an existential struggle. That being the case, it hardly matters whether Thailand's economy is destroyed in the process, because if they fail, they'd be destroyed.
Singaporeans might ask the question: when will it be our turn?
© Yawning Bread
I recall Thaksin won in 2001 and 2005, twice. How did you count 4 times?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaksin_Shinawatra
2001
2005
2006 House dissolution and the April 2006 Legislative Election
Thaksin announced a House dissolution on 24 February 2006. General elections were scheduled for 2 April.
Thaksin's TRT Party won a victory in the boycotted elections, with 462 seats in Parliament with ratio of voters to no-voters of 16-10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_2007
2007
The junta had canceled general elections scheduled for October 2006 and promised new elections within 12 months. The junta then outlawed the Thai Rak Thai party, the largest political party in Thailand, and banned TRT executives from contesting in the elections for five years. After their political party had been dissolved, the former TRT members regrouped under the band of People's Power Party (PPP) led by Samak Sundaravej, the seasoned politician.
PPP is the proxy for Thaksin.
one try not to say nasty things to allies and friends.
A Tale Of A City In Four Colors
Bangkok is now developing into battlezone formation. Hoardes of Red PPP supporters are moving into the city centre, outnumbering those Yellow PAD supporters still there. So they beat a retreat to their two airport strongholds. The Brown police has apparently straddled themselves somewhere in between while the Green army still has the entire Bangkok outskirts surrounded.
(Background soundtrack - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgmoEHnUpjk)
Bangkok is now developing into battlezone formation. Hoardes of Red PPP supporters are moving into the city centre, outnumbering those Yellow PAD supporters still there. So they beat a retreat to their two airport strongholds. The Brown police has apparently straddled themselves somewhere in between while the Green army still has the entire Bangkok outskirts surrounded.
(Background soundtrack - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgmoEHnUpjk)
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