PAP believes it will win with 60% vote share

[Rimururu]

one small step at a time, Mr. Chiam was a lonely voice for 27 years too and he never gives up. Even if only Aljunied and Hougang falls while the rest stays in PAP hands, i consider it a victory and the beginning of reclaiming our own country back.

Please do not say that. I will feel heartbroken for my hero Chiam See Tong. :(

 

[BBSEE]

Please do not say that. I will feel heartbroken for my hero Chiam See Tong. :(

my head says WP but my heart says SPP, losing the Lion of Singapore's voice in parliament will be our biggest loss! :(

 

[Rimururu]

my head says WP but my heart says SPP, losing the Lion of Singapore's voice in parliament will be our biggest loss! :(

I doubt he will lose in B-TP, considering the 'popularity' of Wong Kan Seng, Ng Eng Hen and Josephine Teo.

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

anything below 60% will be an excellent result for the oppos...hv my doubts though as things can swing either way especially after LHL's mea culpa...somehow s'poreans hv soft hearts wif no brains when this type of emotional tugstring approach is used...like i said in another thread everything now depends on tonight's 2nd n last tv political party broadcasts...both LHL n the oppo hv a heck of alot riding on this one...may tip the balance either way...stay tuned at 10pm tonight chaps n hope for the best!

 

[papfuckoff]

The rest of the Singaporeans will not be taken in by anything said by them, or purportedly leaked by them.
Since when had you known them to tell us the raw truth?

Other than during the days of the old guards like Toh Chin Chye , Goh Keng Swee, have PAP in last twenty years being known
for keeping their promises and telling us true things?

So why believe in the rubbish that they get 60%?

That as best is what they hope for.

We , with our ballots, will make sure they get 45% or less

And let the wind of changes blow fresh air into Singapore.

 

[Gallego99]

I feel depressed after reading the assessment.

So many Sinkies still believe in the PAP. OK so Aljunied may fall.

Plus Hougang. That makes it a miserable 6 Opposition MPs.

What kind of voice is that in Parliament?!

I give up on my own country liao. I just do not understand my fellow Sinkies.

Very disappointing indeed.

I do not even want to cast my vote now becos it would not make a difference.

Dun give up. Do you see Chiam giving up? Press on and let as many people know why voting for the opposition is the way forward.. Merdeka!!!!

 

[Talking Donkey]

Hi..!

There was apparently a very high level meeting within the PAP top echelons between midnight and 2.30 am today morning to make the final assessment. I would have loved to be the fly on the wall at such a meeting. Based on my sources, here's the PAP assessment:

1. 
   The worst case scenario for PAP is actually 56% +/- 3% vote share.
   
2. Aljunied is a lost case for PAP, though apparently the grassroots believe that during the last 3 days, GY's sympathy appeal has endeared him to the younger generation and he may scrape through. The older generation still likes GY. It is the younger generation which will be the swing factor for WP.
   
3. The TPY-Bishan will go down the wire. The consensus is that PAP will win this GRC with a 53% +/- 3% margin.

Apparently all the "sorry speeches" and the "tears" had some effect. Many of the voters who were fence sitters, seem to have bought into the PAP humility and a lot of them will vote for the PAP. If it was not for the tears and the sorry speeches, PAP would have lost one more GRC (TPY-Bishan) and one SMC at least. The sorry speeches and tears has a 1.5-3.5% swing appeal.

A lot of Ministers are actually chewing their nails (VB, WKS) though MBT is pretty confident of getting more than a 60% share. MBT is pretty smug.


PAP has lost the mind share of the younger generation (21-35 yrs). The overall mind share loss is 62.5% ( i.e 62.5% do not believe /subscribe to the PAP's views / theories) as against 56% in the last GE. That's a big swing. It is unfortunate that the Opposition did not do a great job in connecting with this generation.
WP is gaining strength across all age/income groups. It's best supporters are the 21-35 age group (60%) as against the strength that it has (51.5%) in 2006. Clearly Sylvia and LTK has appealed to this target group.

SPP seems to become history. Even in PP, his wife gets a lot of sympathy, but it is unlikely to convert that into vote

56% will be the magical mark for PAP
44% for the opposition parties.

My prediction.
Aljunied will fall to WP
Holland/Bukit Timah..SDP to win by a nose
Hougang..WP to retain easily
Mountbatten..NSP to win

Hearbreaking scenario.
Potong Parsir to fall to PAP in a close finish
Bishan/Toa payoh another very close finish

Tampines...sadly for GMS he will have to continue dreaming of winning a GRC but he can have the consolation that he can be proud of his performance by garnering at least 40% t0 45% vote
Marine Parade..Nicole factor did cause a slight dent but it is still a PAP stronghold.

 

[Talking Donkey]

A more happy outcome i would have wish for..

Opposition 56%
PAP 44%

Oppo to win
Aljunied
Holland/Bukit Timah
Tampines
Hougang
Potong Pasir
Mountbatten

And i love to see a giant killing act in
Marine Parade
Sembawang

This is my wish for the above..

Boss can you please delete my post on tat running naked thing,i regret n promise not to post silly again..much appreciated.

 

[papfuckoff]

go talk with strangers when you go for dinner at your hawker center

You will be delighted

Have no fear what the 8th will bring us

 

[bluewolf]

PAP has developed its own prediction model using a standard data mining tool. The model tool was developed by guys in the PAP with some outside help in 2001 and refined in 2006. Now they believe that with all the improvements they have made in the last couple of years, it is a good tool as better as any.

ANY data mining tool, or prediction model, is only as good as the way the data was sampled. I would suspect that a majority of those polled would not tell the truth, especially the opposition voters.

If they are relying on these predictions, I think PAP is a goner.

 

[LeMans2011]

60% no 2/3 majority. No government!

Bro
The % always refers to votes, not seats

 

[cass888]

Although unlikely, I won't be surprise to see the following potential freak result/upsets:
Lina Chiam in PP
Nicole Seah in MP
Gerald Giam in EC

Don't be daft. Very Unlikely that Aljunied would go to WP if PP goes to PAP. More likely combinations:

PAP - 87
PAP - 86 WP - 1 (Hougang)
PAP - 86 SPP - 1 (Potong Pasir)
PAP - 80 WP - 6 (Hougang, Aljunied) SPP -1 (Potong Pasir)
PAP - 75 WP - 6 (Hougang, Aljunied) SPP - 6 (Potong Pasir, Toa-Payoh Bishan)

There is no way that SPP can take TPB without retaining PP. Marine Parade? East Coast? Do dream on. GCT and LSS are juggernauts that even LTK or CST wouldn't go near to, let alone a mere Gerald Giam or Nicole Seah.

NSP may not even get NCMP seats which are likely to go to SDP.

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

i shall hv a catastrophic orgasm if that happens....yes please!!

Don't be daft. Very Unlikely that Aljunied would go to WP if PP goes to PAP. More likely combinations:

PAP - 75 WP - 6 (Hougang, Aljunied) SPP - 6 (Potong Pasir, Toa-Payoh Bishan)

.

 

[cass888]

i shall hv a catastrophic orgasm if that happens....yes please!!

Impossible combinations:

SPP winning Bishan Toa Payoh but losing Potong Pasir

Implausible combinations:

WP winning Aljunied but losing Hougang.

 

[serenditpity]

Hi locke:

I think you understood it correctly. In singapore context, it is still not clear how much swing in votes will translate into votes as there is no historical data. Hence the model is very weak here.

Dear Seren

Lets summarize the following data points. In essence if they started of at 63+-3 best case then worst case would have been 59 +-3 . Your final reading last nite gives us a shift of three points to the 63 to 53 range after nine days of campaigning.

If we take the middle point. It becomes 61 best case start or 58 worst case end. Honestly at 61 I would have given Georgie a 50 50.survival chance. if 58 george goes and quite a few smcs and Grcs are at risk n become 50 50 fights. Every percentage below puts more into the at risk portion because of a national swing.


Thanks

Locke

 

[wwabbit]

ANY data mining tool, or prediction model, is only as good as the way the data was sampled. I would suspect that a majority of those polled would not tell the truth, especially the opposition voters.

If they are relying on these predictions, I think PAP is a goner.

That's correct, but mathematically if you have enough data from previous elections, you can also account for the 'fear factor' in the prediction model.

 

[giggity_shit]

Impossible combinations:

SPP winning Bishan Toa Payoh but losing Potong Pasir

Implausible combinations:

WP winning Aljunied but losing Hougang.

That would really blow our minds.

 

[papfuckoff]

See this survey done
http://ge2011.iblogger.org/strawpoll_results_at_20110506_2100hrs.pdf

Much better than those crap with pretended savvy by pretending people how PAP get 60%

They will be lucky to get 45%.
I revise my estimate now that the PAP lucky to get 40%

Good riddance to the nightmare that tried to rob us of our country turning it to their personal corporation and fiefdom, with us as their serfs.

 

[moolightaffairs]

I feel depressed after reading the assessment.

So many Sinkies still believe in the PAP. OK so Aljunied may fall.

Plus Hougang. That makes it a miserable 6 Opposition MPs.

What kind of voice is that in Parliament?!

I give up on my own country liao. I just do not understand my fellow Sinkies.

Very disappointing indeed.

I do not even want to cast my vote now becos it would not make a difference.

look at Chiam See Tong, u dare to say such thing? fuck you man! useless man! when the going get tough, the tough get going! this is just a stupid prediction by a stupid system. every vote count! must go tell your relatives and friends to vote for oppositions!!! not sit here and whine!!! the polling not even start yet and let along result!!! u r really a sinkie that we despise in this forum. if u r in ancient military in China, u will be beheaded for demoralizing the army before the war!!! then they will use your blood and head to pray to the flag!!!

 

[kingrant]

Tks for the story.

I'd prefer yr first para of cos and hope that the model screws up. It is going to be a real disappointment that MBT could still be smug. Here Mah didnt win; GMS lost his way. He did not capitalise fully with all his resources and org.

I was also hoping that WKS is another victim - that bastard is lucky if he really escaped the noose.

I expected VB to also fall. He's anotehr cocky guy. I thot VW's team with TJS and AYG and ML was quite good. Just hope the inexactness of this science proves itself.

PP losing is a pity. But paradoxically, the constituents may well benefit and be the ultimate winners as the PAP tries harder to woo them back for the next GE. They can still vote out PAP after getting the goodies if a good strong successor to CST emerges.

There may well be some musical chairs dont you think, as the newbies may regroup into a new party or switch horses?

Well, poll prediction is an inexact science, more so in singapore when they keep redrawing boundaries and people dont give honest views. And the short time given to campaigning and the various issues contributing to swing makes it difficult.

But fm whatever I have seen in 2006 and now briefly, it is a reasonably well designed model