hi there
1. bro, well said.
2. may i add onto your statement.
3. go and suck on a cold cucumber.
-
IP addresses are NOT logged in this forum so there's no point asking. Please note that this forum is full of homophobes, racists, lunatics, schizophrenics & absolute nut jobs with a smattering of geniuses, Chinese chauvinists, Moderate Muslims and last but not least a couple of "know-it-alls" constantly sprouting their dubious wisdom. If you believe that content generated by unsavory characters might cause you offense PLEASE LEAVE NOW! Sammyboy Admin and Staff are not responsible for your hurt feelings should you choose to read any of the content here. The OTHER forum is HERE so please stop asking.
PAP believes it will win with 60% vote share
- Thread starter serenditpity
- Start date
hi there
1. bro, well said.
2. may i add onto your statement.
3. go and suck on a cold cucumber.
The assessment is very much in line with my own although I am pretty disappointed GMS can't kick MBT out. I think GMS made a serious mistake by not concentrating his A-listers all in Tampines. I still think if he had put himself, Steve Chia, Nicole, one of the Tans and a minority into Tampines, they would have made MBT sweat, A LOT!!!!
Although unlikely, I won't be surprise to see the following potential freak result/upsets:
Lina Chiam in PP
Nicole Seah in MP
Gerald Giam in EC
Although unlikely, I won't be surprise to see the following potential freak result/upsets:
Lina Chiam in PP
Nicole Seah in MP
Gerald Giam in EC
yah.....should whack that shorty hard. to be honest his policy is not at all popular among everyone of us.
PAP has developed its own prediction model using a standard data mining tool. The model tool was developed by guys in the PAP with some outside help in 2001 and refined in 2006. Now they believe that with all the improvements they have made in the last couple of years, it is a good tool as better as any.
Well, poll prediction is an inexact science, more so in singapore when they keep redrawing boundaries and people dont give honest views. And the short time given to campaigning and the various issues contributing to swing makes it difficult.
But fm whatever I have seen in 2006 and now briefly, it is a reasonably well designed model
But fm whatever I have seen in 2006 and now briefly, it is a reasonably well designed model
If you are talking abt a data mining tool, then the most advanced data source are the various surveys they did round about 2nd half of 2010. I remember Amy Khor coming out to share some of the results. I remember the results were quite positive and did not in any way suggest what we have seen the last 2 weeks.
If the PAP top people is using this forecast what the election results are going to be, they might as well go toss a coin since the data for the model is hopelessly outdated.
More so if after refinement, all we can manage is a range of 53% to 63%.
Dear Electorates,
all of us can do our part by sharing what we all know as Intelligent Singaporeans to our family, our friends, and our relatives...
We can swing the votes to Opposition Favour... do your part... but do it gently, with wisdom... do not fight... I am sure you intelligent Electorates know what to do...
33% or more seats for Opposition is all we need to block the PAP FT policies, and any other stupid policies that they may imagine.
all of us can do our part by sharing what we all know as Intelligent Singaporeans to our family, our friends, and our relatives...
We can swing the votes to Opposition Favour... do your part... but do it gently, with wisdom... do not fight... I am sure you intelligent Electorates know what to do...
33% or more seats for Opposition is all we need to block the PAP FT policies, and any other stupid policies that they may imagine.
<iframe width="640" height="510" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/L4tUBcyC8co?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Thanks Bro, very helpful.
Dear Seren
Lets summarize the following data points. In essence if they started of at 63+-3 best case then worst case would have been 59 +-3 . Your final reading last nite gives us a shift of three points to the 63 to 53 range after nine days of campaigning.
If we take the middle point. It becomes 61 best case start or 58 worst case end. Honestly at 61 I would have given Georgie a 50 50.survival chance. if 58 george goes and quite a few smcs and Grcs are at risk n become 50 50 fights. Every percentage below puts more into the at risk portion because of a national swing.
Thanks
Locke
Lets summarize the following data points. In essence if they started of at 63+-3 best case then worst case would have been 59 +-3 . Your final reading last nite gives us a shift of three points to the 63 to 53 range after nine days of campaigning.
If we take the middle point. It becomes 61 best case start or 58 worst case end. Honestly at 61 I would have given Georgie a 50 50.survival chance. if 58 george goes and quite a few smcs and Grcs are at risk n become 50 50 fights. Every percentage below puts more into the at risk portion because of a national swing.
Thanks
Locke
Hi..!
There was apparently a very high level meeting within the PAP top echelons between midnight and 2.30 am today morning to make the final assessment. I would have loved to be the fly on the wall at such a meeting. Based on my sources, here's the PAP assessment:
- PAP will win this GE with a 60% +/-3% overall share. Their original (optimistic) assessment was that they would win this with a 63%+/- 3%share. The worst case scenario for PAP is actually 56% +/- 3% vote share.
- Aljunied is a lost case for PAP, though apparently the grassroots believe that during the last 3 days, GY's sympathy appeal has endeared him to the younger generation and he may scrape through. The older generation still likes GY. It is the younger generation which will be the swing factor for WP.
- Hougang will be retained by WP with a much slender margin.
- The TPY-Bishan will go down the wire. The consensus is that PAP will win this GRC with a 53% +/- 3% margin.
Apparently all the "sorry speeches" and the "tears" had some effect. Many of the voters who were fence sitters, seem to have bought into the PAP humility and a lot of them will vote for the PAP. If it was not for the tears and the sorry speeches, PAP would have lost one more GRC (TPY-Bishan) and one SMC at least. The sorry speeches and tears has a 1.5-3.5% swing appeal.
A lot of Ministers are actually chewing their nails (VB, WKS) though MBT is pretty confident of getting more than a 60% share. MBT is pretty smug.
So, in all PAP expects to lose just 1 GRC and 1 SMC. Anything more than that, would mean PAP will have to redraw their prediction model. Their prediction model worked well in 2006 and hence there is only some marginal changes done to the model.
Based on data set briefly that was used for the prediction model as of 3rd May midnight here's the qualitative assessment:
PAP has lost the mind share of the younger generation (21-35 yrs). The overall mind share loss is 62.5% ( i.e 62.5% do not believe /subscribe to the PAP's views / theories) as against 56% in the last GE. That's a big swing. It is unfortunate that the Opposition did not do a great job in connecting with this generation.
SDP minus CSJ appeal has gone up marginally. SDP wherever it has contested may get a higher vote share than with SDP+CSJ in the last GE. It may scare VB, but VB will go back to Parliament.
NSP is a non starter. Earlier it was believed that Tampines may be a risk, but last 3 days seems to indicate that PAP will sail through Tampines comfortably.
WP is gaining strength across all age/income groups. It's best supporters are the 21-35 age group (60%) as against the strength that it has (51.5%) in 2006. Clearly Sylvia and LTK has appealed to this target group.
SPP seems to become history. Even in PP, his wife gets a lot of sympathy, but it is unlikely to convert that into votes.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Random thoughts:
There is so much secrecy and conspiracy theories floating around and so much mistrust all over, that the cadres seem to have lost their sense of purpose in many constituencies. So, PAP will make all effort to get the cadres aligned.
The civil service votes (which was always for the PAP) is slowly waking up to the possibility of voting for the Opposition. So, next GE there will be a special "package" for civil service.
There was only one decision maker and in all likelihood one of the 2 king makers who has chosen to operate deftly behind the scenes -- TCH. Watch out!
[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
All the observations/conclusions are drawn after factoring in the conversations, hidden observations and of course some "data"
Now, draw your own inferences
60% no 2/3 majority. No government!
I do not need your $500. Money taken from Singaporeans in the first place and part of the crumbs that you got from them to tell your lies here.
You as part of the PAP slime, your promise is as good as the other promises PAP made.
Totally worthless.
I had lunch in hawker center this afternoon.
I overheard talk of voting from people around a table next to my table, people I never known before.
They felt since the promises from PAP have been empty, the apology they heard was as empty as the promises.
I started to talk with them, a lady and 2 elderly men.
How important the vote against the PAP will be.
I was surprised when I walked away, 4 other tables around us, with about 5-6 people each table, broke out in cheers that wind of changes will come with their votes for opposition.
I never knew any of them. I do not think the people around the tables knew of other tables.
I think that is indicative of the current ground swell.
Leaked talks from PAP that they get 60% are deliberately leaked to try to claw back some votes. Those kind of talks have as much substance as PAP promises, or apology.
At best, just words that they want to put in your ears without any substance to them.
We know the answer on the 8th.
MAJULLAH SINGAPORE
YES WE CAN
The PAP is just trying to give a false image of strength and confidence so as to maintain the climate of fear. It is hard to intimidate people if they think you are going to lose.
They do this through sites like this as well as the infamous bookie odds. Where do you think the bookies get their odds from? Have you seen any bookie doing large scale statistical polling?
Previously, they had played up opposition chances in previous elections because they were playing the "freak" election card. Hence to frighten people, they played up the Opposition changes.
This time round, the spin is strength all the way so you can be sure there are real underlying problems on the ground and they are not confident at all.
I feel depressed after reading the assessment.
So many Sinkies still believe in the PAP. OK so Aljunied may fall.
Plus Hougang. That makes it a miserable 6 Opposition MPs.
What kind of voice is that in Parliament?!
I give up on my own country liao. I just do not understand my fellow Sinkies.
Very disappointing indeed.
I do not even want to cast my vote now becos it would not make a difference.
So many Sinkies still believe in the PAP. OK so Aljunied may fall.
Plus Hougang. That makes it a miserable 6 Opposition MPs.
What kind of voice is that in Parliament?!
I give up on my own country liao. I just do not understand my fellow Sinkies.
Very disappointing indeed.
I do not even want to cast my vote now becos it would not make a difference.
60% of the vote or seats? If seats they will not be able to form a government
hahaha...any analytical model is only as good as the input data......without accurate data, it is guesstimate at best.
many constituencies have not been contested for years......so at best you are talking about using historical data.
let us pray hard and hope for some (pleasant) surprises......
one small step at a time, Mr. Chiam was a lonely voice for 27 years too and he never gives up. Even if only Aljunied and Hougang falls while the rest stays in PAP hands, i consider it a victory and the beginning of reclaiming our own country back.
I am hoping VB goes back to his previous profession. VW, TJS, AYG and ML impresses me with their passion and sincerity. Am very certain they would contribute more compared to VB's team. I am still puzzled why thiis 4 chose to join CSJ's SDP.
Similar threads
