Correct. Still got hope, good chance even of opposition sweeping 1, 2 or 3 GRC and SMC
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PAP believes it will win with 60% vote share
- Thread starter serenditpity
- Start date
Correct. Still got hope, good chance even of opposition sweeping 1, 2 or 3 GRC and SMC
The 60% bandied abt here is always about percetage of popular votes. No need to talk abt seats once the % is settled.
I agree that any strawpoll is largely useless in Singapore not due to gerrymandering but because Singaporeans are fraught to say much truth when it comes to voting the Alternative Parties. If anything, there should be a huge shift in votes towards the Alternative Parties based on any finding from a strawpoll to better predict the final outcome.
My take is either the APs win big or win very small.
New Citizens will largely be cancelled out by voters within the 22-32 age group.
The battle is two-fold with the first within the 66% group from the last election. Have the realised their folly. From my own little experience on the ground, it is a resounding "yes".
I will not talk about the second battle until after polling is closed where I will also put my 2 cents on the expected PAP total percentage of votes.
As long as the battle is on-going, everyone can still do their part to encourage their friends and family members to vote for an honest, caring government. Forget about checks and balances because without honesty, the incumbent won't be telling the truth - so what's the point?
Without a caring government, policies will again be skewed to screw the lower and middle income groups.
Vote wisely means voting for the APs. Vote wisely.
My take is either the APs win big or win very small.
New Citizens will largely be cancelled out by voters within the 22-32 age group.
The battle is two-fold with the first within the 66% group from the last election. Have the realised their folly. From my own little experience on the ground, it is a resounding "yes".
I will not talk about the second battle until after polling is closed where I will also put my 2 cents on the expected PAP total percentage of votes.
As long as the battle is on-going, everyone can still do their part to encourage their friends and family members to vote for an honest, caring government. Forget about checks and balances because without honesty, the incumbent won't be telling the truth - so what's the point?
Without a caring government, policies will again be skewed to screw the lower and middle income groups.
Vote wisely means voting for the APs. Vote wisely.
When this is happening they still believe in 60%????
Wah, if opposition candidates and supporters resort to such tactic when they are vying for power, what will happens to the people when they come into power?
cocksuck PAP bitch Stephanis myo539 chia fails to mention removing of Opposition banners in contested wards hor? Hungry for my white stuff again? Bitch!
i only know more than 50% of my pro-pap people i know had jump ship to any opposition.Including some active army regular.CB they tell me even canteen in camp oso got CHINA FT.
What's wrong with having FTs?
Only the Ah Beng soldiers worry because they have no real skills except cocksucking and can be easily replaced by those FT
Haha
What's wrong with having FTs?
Only the Ah Beng soldiers worry because they have no real skills except cocksucking and can be easily replaced by those FT
Haha
PAP dogs on duty during polling day! hahahaahaha
Eh, this survey results is very skewed lah! Never ask Ah Pek & Ah Soh who never use internet. Its obvious from the first results as it shows age groups are those in their twenties till forties. Then, as they get older, there are fewer folks which means older folks do not use internet. As such, they rely on MSM for their news fodder & believe everything it says. Never understimate the superpower of MSM on these old people.
It is not so much the power of the MSM as it is the credulity and anti-intellectualism of the older generation. Those who dismiss political discourse as "impractical" deserve to have every penny sucked out of their "practical" lives by corrupt governments. I pity the Ah Peks and Ah Mms who virtually kiss the feet of the PAPpies for returning to them 1/10th of the loot
The following is an interesting set of results on the expectations of what will happen today.
http://www.acepolls.com/polls/1202846-on-may-7-pap-win/results
The designer of the poll did a pretty bad job of the categories so that it is hard to read the results. You get a much better picture if your aggregate up the numbers. The expectations are:
PAP wins 87 seats 9.50%
PAP wins 80 seats to 86 seats 11.16%
PAP wins 60 seats to 79 seats 43.39%
PAP wins less than 60 seats 35.95%
Online polls have the problem of being biased to only those that use the internet. This is mainly your P65 group who entered the workforce in 1990. This poll is therefore reflective of those aged 21 to 45.
As can be seen, only a very small minority (about 20%) are expecting the kind of strong PAP wins that have been seen in the past.
Almost 80% of those polled expect the PAP to lose more than 1 GRC.
This of course might not happen. This is because of the pre-65 who are strong PAP supporters currently make up about 50% of the electorate.
If the expectations of the P65 are not met, a large proportion of the P65 are going to feel frustrated and cheated. While we won't see Thai style red shirt street politics, these people will take their frustrations online. This election has resulted in the political awakening of many young Singaporeans. This next 5 years will therefore make the current dissent on the Internet look paltry by comparison. Come 2016 when the pre-65 will make up only 25% of the electorate, the change will happen.
Judgement Day cannot be stopped. It can only be postponed.
http://www.acepolls.com/polls/1202846-on-may-7-pap-win/results
The designer of the poll did a pretty bad job of the categories so that it is hard to read the results. You get a much better picture if your aggregate up the numbers. The expectations are:
PAP wins 87 seats 9.50%
PAP wins 80 seats to 86 seats 11.16%
PAP wins 60 seats to 79 seats 43.39%
PAP wins less than 60 seats 35.95%
Online polls have the problem of being biased to only those that use the internet. This is mainly your P65 group who entered the workforce in 1990. This poll is therefore reflective of those aged 21 to 45.
As can be seen, only a very small minority (about 20%) are expecting the kind of strong PAP wins that have been seen in the past.
Almost 80% of those polled expect the PAP to lose more than 1 GRC.
This of course might not happen. This is because of the pre-65 who are strong PAP supporters currently make up about 50% of the electorate.
If the expectations of the P65 are not met, a large proportion of the P65 are going to feel frustrated and cheated. While we won't see Thai style red shirt street politics, these people will take their frustrations online. This election has resulted in the political awakening of many young Singaporeans. This next 5 years will therefore make the current dissent on the Internet look paltry by comparison. Come 2016 when the pre-65 will make up only 25% of the electorate, the change will happen.
Judgement Day cannot be stopped. It can only be postponed.
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by that time 1 million foreigners would have become citizens and would vote PAP
As for ah peks and ah sohs, let me reproduce a report I made.
4:11 am now and I should be sleeping. But find sleeping difficult.
I earlier said PAP might get 45% of the votes. That was on the premise that 20% will be diehard PAP supporters no matter what. And 15% will leaned to them. I threw in another 10% just in case.
I was being extremely generous to them. When you see the online survey done on well over 800 people, you would have seen 1.38% vote according to upgrading plans their estate will get and 98.6% for more alternate debate in parliament.
In another related poll on who will serve our interests better, only 4% believe in the ruling party, 83% believe in the opposition and 8% are cynics believing in none at all.
The corner of the hawker center I sat in was as random as you can get. What were the chance that 5-6 tables of ah peks and ah sohs be all pro change? I did not know them, and as said before, they probably did not know other tables.
I speak like I write. Articulate enough. In Chinese and English. But I was touched to receive applause from all of them.
What is the percentage of that group voting for change? 100% picked at random.
You seen enough of those figures batted about by PAP doggies as 60% plus minus something stupid to impress you with the range.
But we know how they are like with figures. Didnt we see 100 million for YOG ballooned up to 340++ million?
Didnt we see $8 for heart operation now turning into $25,000?
That is the credibility that they display to all of us.
Will it even be possible that my estimate of 45% was way too much even for them to get?
Might it be possible that some of the PAP candidates might not even get back their deposit?
Let us all make it truly happen. And cleanse our country and our souls.
thanks serendipity bro, you were prophetic and spot on. Hougang and Aljunied fell and PAP did get 60%.
Hi..!
There was apparently a very high level meeting within the PAP top echelons between midnight and 2.30 am today morning to make the final assessment. I would have loved to be the fly on the wall at such a meeting. Based on my sources, here's the PAP assessment:
- PAP will win this GE with a 60% +/-3% overall share. Their original (optimistic) assessment was that they would win this with a 63%+/- 3%share. The worst case scenario for PAP is actually 56% +/- 3% vote share.
- Aljunied is a lost case for PAP, though apparently the grassroots believe that during the last 3 days, GY's sympathy appeal has endeared him to the younger generation and he may scrape through. The older generation still likes GY. It is the younger generation which will be the swing factor for WP.
- Hougang will be retained by WP with a much slender margin.
- The TPY-Bishan will go down the wire. The consensus is that PAP will win this GRC with a 53% +/- 3% margin.
Apparently all the "sorry speeches" and the "tears" had some effect. Many of the voters who were fence sitters, seem to have bought into the PAP humility and a lot of them will vote for the PAP. If it was not for the tears and the sorry speeches, PAP would have lost one more GRC (TPY-Bishan) and one SMC at least. The sorry speeches and tears has a 1.5-3.5% swing appeal.
A lot of Ministers are actually chewing their nails (VB, WKS) though MBT is pretty confident of getting more than a 60% share. MBT is pretty smug.
So, in all PAP expects to lose just 1 GRC and 1 SMC. Anything more than that, would mean PAP will have to redraw their prediction model. Their prediction model worked well in 2006 and hence there is only some marginal changes done to the model.
Based on data set briefly that was used for the prediction model as of 3rd May midnight here's the qualitative assessment:
PAP has lost the mind share of the younger generation (21-35 yrs). The overall mind share loss is 62.5% ( i.e 62.5% do not believe /subscribe to the PAP's views / theories) as against 56% in the last GE. That's a big swing. It is unfortunate that the Opposition did not do a great job in connecting with this generation.
SDP minus CSJ appeal has gone up marginally. SDP wherever it has contested may get a higher vote share than with SDP+CSJ in the last GE. It may scare VB, but VB will go back to Parliament.
NSP is a non starter. Earlier it was believed that Tampines may be a risk, but last 3 days seems to indicate that PAP will sail through Tampines comfortably.
WP is gaining strength across all age/income groups. It's best supporters are the 21-35 age group (60%) as against the strength that it has (51.5%) in 2006. Clearly Sylvia and LTK has appealed to this target group.
SPP seems to become history. Even in PP, his wife gets a lot of sympathy, but it is unlikely to convert that into votes.
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Random thoughts:
There is so much secrecy and conspiracy theories floating around and so much mistrust all over, that the cadres seem to have lost their sense of purpose in many constituencies. So, PAP will make all effort to get the cadres aligned.
The civil service votes (which was always for the PAP) is slowly waking up to the possibility of voting for the Opposition. So, next GE there will be a special "package" for civil service.
There was only one decision maker and in all likelihood one of the 2 king makers who has chosen to operate deftly behind the scenes -- TCH. Watch out!
[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
All the observations/conclusions are drawn after factoring in the conversations, hidden observations and of course some "data"
Now, draw your own inferences
I'm speechless ! :p
So how much did you win with your correct prediction? Put in your signature somemore... hahaha
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