My Predictions

[GoldenDragon]

Think maybe EC and Fengshan will fall. Not sure about MP. WP will hold on to their current seats. That makes only 12 MPs. Not sure Dr Chee gonna make it either.

Good chance MP and MacPherson will go to WP. 18?

 

[THE_CHANSTER]

After a slow start, SDP is starting to catch fire. Their team and message have found fertile soil in Holland-Bukit Timah because of the unique demographic characteristics of that GRC. Consequently, the probability that SDP will win Holland-Bukit Timah is now > 50%.

I think the possibility of the SDP winning the Holland-Bukit Timah GRC is wishful thinking. No doubt CSJ has made inroads into PAP territory but the voters in this GRC are predominately the rich affluent and middle class income earners with their top schools and landed properties and condos investments.

Contest maybe close but I just can't see CSJ beating VB. A lot will depend on the undecided 'swing' voters in this constituency.

But I'll be happy to eat my words on Sept 12th.

 

[groinroot]

The PAP appears to be in disarray.

Their initial campaign was to focus on WP which was perceived to be the biggest threat. The campaign started with the PAP conceding the WP held SMCs and GRCs. Fengshan was carved out of East Coast GRC to give East Coast a fighting chance. McPherson was taken out of Marine Parade to preserve a pre-65 rich SMC for future use. Marine Parade was made into a dumping ground for Geylang, Joo Chiat and other hostile polling districts. While it would be nice if Marine Parade could be retained, there would be no real tears if it was lost as it contained a stubborn old man who refused to leave the stage when he was supposed to.

As the campaign got underway, this carefully laid plan started to go awry. It started with the larger that expected attendances at the first WP rally. This quickly snowballed and they began to receive feedback of massive anger and resentment. Using rally size as a proxy, it became likely that WP might manage a swing of 8 to 10%. Based on the polling results of GE 2011, this would mean that WP would win 27 out of 28 seats contested.

To prevent this from happening, the PAP therefore concentrated all fire on the town council issue, hoping that it would create doubt in the mind of the swing voters. This tactic did not appear to have the intended effect. The WP rallies grew in size and there was a strong social media backlash. The assault ended in a PAP rout with the WP "surprise" counnter attack using the Punggol East town council accounts.

While the PAP focused on the WP, they ignored the SDP. From a slow start with a crowd of less than 5,000, CSJ emerged to become the "Nicole Seah" of GE 2015. The crowd at SDP rallies have now surged past the 20,000 mark. After the rallies, supporters queue for as long as 1.5 hours to shake CSJ's hand and buy his books. On social media, CSJ has reached the levels Nicole Seah achieved in 2015. Given the demographic mix of Holland-Bukit Timah, this means that there is a high chance that the SDP will be able to make a GRC breakthrough.

After an unprecedented Sunday rally "break" by the PAP, there is therefore a noticable shift in focus away from WP to SDP. In doing so, the PAP appears to be conceding the 27 seats to WP. Stopping the SDP has now become their top priority. Beyond the loss of the 2/3 majority, the emergence of SDP in Parliament would mean the birth of a potential WP-SDP coalition that can challenge the PAP for control of the government in 2020.

There are now just 2 days of campaigning left. The completely unexpected emergence of SDP under CSJ makes it extremely difficult for the PAP to come up with any well thought out plan. Based on Monday's rallies, their strategy appears to be to use personal attacks and character assassination to try and stop CSJ. It is uncertain if this will be effective. CSJ has emerged from his years of exile with a stillness of heart. His response to the attacks appears to be the Biblical teaching of "turning the other cheek" while gently rebuking the PAP in the errors of their ways. This approach seems be very effective in winning CSJ a great deal of respect from Singaporeans. By attacking him viciously, the PAP will reinforce the widespread perception that the PAP is an aggressive, oppressive "bully".

Excellent observation.

 

[Cosmos10]

I think the possibility of the SDP winning the Holland-Bukit Timah GRC is wishful thinking. No doubt CSJ has made inroads into PAP territory but the voters in this GRC are predominately the rich affluent and middle class income earners with their top schools and landed properties and condos investments.

Contest maybe close but I just can't see CSJ beating VB. A lot will depend on the undecided 'swing' voters in this constituency.

But I'll be happy to eat my words on Sept 12th.

Originally, I thought the same way as you.

I have two close upper-class relatives, both husband and wife, living in Holland Bukit Timah GRC.

For the last few weeks, I was very hesitant to bother them, thinking that they would be voting for the PAP.

Two nights ago, I told myself that since election is such an important matter, and if it is for the good of Singapore, why should I be afraid to talk to them.

So, I called them, I was surprised to learn that they have already decided (before my phone call) to vote for the SDP!

So, two extra votes for Dr Chee and Dr Paul and team! SDP boleh!

 

[aerobwala]

A big chunk of votes are with uncles and aunties doing Big Walk with THP.
CSJ needs to persuade and convince this group of voters.

Rich and wealthy in Holland Bt Timah had already display displeasure of PAP in 2011, its the HDB dwellers there that tipped the balance.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

The PAP appears to be in disarray.

Their initial campaign was to focus on WP which was perceived to be the biggest threat. The campaign started with the PAP conceding the WP held SMCs and GRCs. Fengshan was carved out of East Coast GRC to give East Coast a fighting chance. McPherson was taken out of Marine Parade to preserve a pre-65 rich SMC for future use. Marine Parade was made into a dumping ground for Geylang, Joo Chiat and other hostile polling districts. While it would be nice if Marine Parade could be retained, there would be no real tears if it was lost as it contained a stubborn old man who refused to leave the stage when he was supposed to.

As the campaign got underway, this carefully laid plan started to go awry. It started with the larger that expected attendances at the first WP rally. This quickly snowballed and they began to receive feedback of massive anger and resentment. Using rally size as a proxy, it became likely that WP might manage a swing of 8 to 10%. Based on the polling results of GE 2011, this would mean that WP would win 27 out of 28 seats contested.

To prevent this from happening, the PAP therefore concentrated all fire on the town council issue, hoping that it would create doubt in the mind of the swing voters. This tactic did not appear to have the intended effect. The WP rallies grew in size and there was a strong social media backlash. The assault ended in a PAP rout with the WP "surprise" counnter attack using the Punggol East town council accounts.

While the PAP focused on the WP, they ignored the SDP. From a slow start with a crowd of less than 5,000, CSJ emerged to become the "Nicole Seah" of GE 2015. The crowd at SDP rallies have now surged past the 20,000 mark. After the rallies, supporters queue for as long as 1.5 hours to shake CSJ's hand and buy his books. On social media, CSJ has reached the levels Nicole Seah achieved in 2015. Given the demographic mix of Holland-Bukit Timah, this means that there is a high chance that the SDP will be able to make a GRC breakthrough.

After an unprecedented Sunday rally "break" by the PAP, there is therefore a noticable shift in focus away from WP to SDP. In doing so, the PAP appears to be conceding the 27 seats to WP. Stopping the SDP has now become their top priority. Beyond the loss of the 2/3 majority, the emergence of SDP in Parliament would mean the birth of a potential WP-SDP coalition that can challenge the PAP for control of the government in 2020.

There are now just 2 days of campaigning left. The completely unexpected emergence of SDP under CSJ makes it extremely difficult for the PAP to come up with any well thought out plan. Based on Monday's rallies, their strategy appears to be to use personal attacks and character assassination to try and stop CSJ. It is uncertain if this will be effective. CSJ has emerged from his years of exile with a stillness of heart. His response to the attacks appears to be the Biblical teaching of "turning the other cheek" while gently rebuking the PAP in the errors of their ways. This approach seems be very effective in winning CSJ a great deal of respect from Singaporeans. By attacking him viciously, the PAP will reinforce the widespread perception that the PAP is an aggressive, oppressive "bully".

Yes, CSJ is a real dark horse. I never expected him to shine in this manner. Many people who were formerly stanch critics of CSJ or who dismissed him outright in the past have warmed up to him.

WP will hold to all its existing seats and possibly win Fengshan and EC. If EC falls it will be a fantastic day for everyone. Finally the clown will be voted out.

NSP will perform badly due to its fiasco.

 

[nato33]

Prof GMS and team should be able to garner 30-35%. Won't lose deposit but result will be one that no one will shout about. Hope he goes into retirement after this GE.

GMS lacks charisma and appeal to voters. Dr Chee's public persona, speaking skills are what GMS aspire for but will never achieve. GMS is better off being an activist instead of trying to play the role of Mentor Politician. Its really hard listening to him speak when his speech comes in drips and draps. Sadly, the pauses are not for effect but lost of words.

However good his intentions are, he will not be a Politician that commands the respect and votes of the majority.

 

[mojito]

GMS lacks charisma and appeal to voters. Dr Chee's public persona, speaking skills are what GMS aspire for but will never achieve. GMS is better off being an activist instead of trying to play the role of Mentor Politician. Its really hard listening to him speak when his speech comes in drips and draps. Sadly, the pauses are not for effect but lost of words.

However good his intentions are, he will not be a Politician that commands the respect and votes of the majority.

Public speaking can train one. He just has other priorities, like criticizing WP.

 

[Huat-Ah]

Originally, I thought the same way as you.

I have two close upper-class relatives, both husband and wife, living in Holland Bukit Timah GRC.

For the last few weeks, I was very hesitant to bother them, thinking that they would be voting for the PAP.

Two nights ago, I told myself that since election is such an important matter, and if it is for the good of Singapore, why should I be afraid to talk to them.

So, I called them, I was surprised to learn that they have already decided (before my phone call) to vote for the SDP!

So, two extra votes for Dr Chee and Dr Paul and team! SDP boleh!

Power lah !

Opposition got hope !

Cheers SDP !

 

[eErotica69]

Good chance MP and MacPherson will go to WP. 18?

Unlikely, TPLworked hard since 2011.

TPL also got a big boost from NSP's Cheo for his motherhood statement cum calling Chen "inexperience". Cheo sealed it for TPL

 

[mojito]

Unlikely, TPLworked hard since 2011.

TPL also got a big boost from NSP's Cheo for his motherhood statement cum calling Chen "inexperience". Cheo sealed it for TPL

He is mole.

 

[Charlie99]

Originally, I thought the same way as you.

I have two close upper-class relatives, both husband and wife, living in Holland Bukit Timah GRC.

For the last few weeks, I was very hesitant to bother them, thinking that they would be voting for the PAP.

Two nights ago, I told myself that since election is such an important matter, and if it is for the good of Singapore, why should I be afraid to talk to them.

So, I called them, I was surprised to learn that they have already decided (before my phone call) to vote for the SDP!

So, two extra votes for Dr Chee and Dr Paul and team! SDP boleh!

Delighted to read your update.
How I wish, other Singaporeans will contact their friends and relatives residing in Holland-Bukit Timah to urge them to consider and vote for Dr. Chee Soon Juan.
Please apologize for interrupting their time, but inform them that Singaporeans are relying on them to "make the necessary changes" to have a voice in Parliament.
I am neither related / affiliated to / with Dr. Chee Soon Juan and the SDP.
Thank you.

 

[virus]

I suspect Paul Thambyah will play a key role in neutralising the Chee baggage of the past. That is why I placed them in the second tier. Hope you are right on the 50-50 for the 3 SMCs. I would love to be proven wrong.

you overestimated ms vivian. i heard his rating is horrid of horrible.

FAP may used to hold 1/3 steadfast support but that has been eroding at 2-3% per annum over the years and likely to have fallen to as low as 21%. it is likely they would have also over estimated the fact new citizens supported them wholeheartedly who are more demanding, more assertive n less patient, less compromising.

 

[JOKERCHEW]

Power lah !

Opposition got hope !

Cheers SDP !

.




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[Dinkum]

Delighted to read your update.
How I wish, other Singaporeans will contact their friends and relatives residing in Holland-Bukit Timah to urge them to consider and vote for Dr. Chee Soon Juan.
Please apologize for interrupting their time, but inform them that Singaporeans are relying on them to "make the necessary changes" to have a voice in Parliament.
I am neither related / affiliated to / with Dr. Chee Soon Juan and the SDP.
Thank you.

Am residing in Holland vicinity and 6 votes from my family will go to Dr Chee and his team.

Checked with my close friends in Namly Gardens and they're all voting for CSJ.

Also my very old friend who lives in University Rd has told me that he and all his neighbors are voting for SDP.

From my conversations with these folks from Holland - Bukit Timah GRC, they're mostly motivated by Dr Tan Cheng Bock whom they believe is voting for CSJ.

I am optimistically confident that Dr Chee Soon Juan will pull through this time.

 

[JohnTan]

Am residing in Holland vicinity and 6 votes from my family will go to Dr Chee and his team.

Checked with my close friends in Namly Gardens and they're all voting for CSJ.

Also my very old friend who lives in University Rd has told me that he and all his neighbors are voting for SDP.

From my conversations with these folks from Holland - Bukit Timah GRC, they're mostly motivated by Dr Tan Cheng Bock whom they believe is voting for CSJ.

I am optimistically confident that Dr Chee Soon Juan will pull through this time.

Ah Bock was one of the vocal PAP members who called Chee a liar. He vote for Cheebye Chee?

We grassroots and PAP folks will hang Ah Bock from the street lamp with one of escher's piano wires!

 

[Charlie99]

Am residing in Holland vicinity and 6 votes from my family will go to Dr Chee and his team.

Checked with my close friends in Namly Gardens and they're all voting for CSJ.

Also my very old friend who lives in University Rd has told me that he and all his neighbors are voting for SDP.

From my conversations with these folks from Holland - Bukit Timah GRC, they're mostly motivated by Dr Tan Cheng Bock whom they believe is voting for CSJ.

I am optimistically confident that Dr Chee Soon Juan will pull through this time.

Good Day,
Thank you very kindly for the update.
I am planning to contact my classmate, who resides at Bukit Timah, within a short walking distance from the then SU campus,
to urge their family to consider voting for CSJ, because there is unlikely to be any negative consequences for them.
Cheers. Good health and God Bless.

 

[GoldenDragon]

NSP will perform badly due to its fiasco.

A pity we wont see Lim Tean in parliament.

 

[Charlie99]

A pity we wont see Lim Tean in parliament.

I hope he considers another political party after this GE.

 

[GoldenDragon]

Ah Bock was one of the vocal PAP members who called Chee a liar. He vote for Cheebye Chee?

We grassroots and PAP folks will hang Ah Bock from the street lamp with one of escher's piano wires!

Ah Bock was at WP rally in Yio Chu Kang. Had one SO with him. Strange.