My Predictions

[Cufflinks]

To be honest, not true... be careful, don't underestimate opponent, this Chinese helicopter is cunning.

Yes agree, if he wasn't cunning, he wouldn't have been able to last so long just spouting nonsense. hahaha

 

[Sideswipe]

what is the bookies' odds on the election ?

 

[GOD IS MY DOG]

Hougang, Punggol East, Aljunied, East Coast, Fengshan, Potong Pasir - to the Opposition

MacPherson, Mountbatten, Sengkang West, Holland-BT, MP - very close fights, likely 47% and above

Bishan-TP, Moulmein-Kallang, Bishan-TP, Jurong, Nee Soon, Tg Pagar, Jalan Besar - decent showing, above 42%

All others- No comments

hello..............still got Kallang-Moulmein meh ?

 

[Alantis]

My prediction:

Would be happy that EC fall into WP hands, that is the only possible chance.

The rest will be close fight.. Koh may stand a chance because Lam is hugely unpopular.

Unless even the heaven is helping...like another mrt breakdown...that's another story.

 

[Poomer]

what is the bookies' odds on the election ?

Tiakong SDA in Pasir Ris Punggol is eat 3.5 goals...

 

[Ambulance]

Predictions like this has been done before. Turns out only 1 or 2 fell in the end. What makes it so special this time?

halo lee gung leow tio siang zway jit eh grc jit eh smc jin kek sim si boh

 

[mojito]

This WP Team for Marine Parade GRC certainly give you value for money if you vote for them.

If WP can't win this time, we can still hope for a by-election.

 

[makapaaa]

Your predictions are really pessimistic to say the least. Yes, a credible opposition slate is important. It's undeniably a "pull factor". However, token appeasement by the pap (as you mentioned : making changes here and there) has been going on for the past few elections, yet their support has been chipping away. I believe most people started to realise the pap will never change after GE2011. They lost Aljunied, yet pressed on with importing more FTs, more unfavourable policies, still being arrogant and elitist, smiling hypocrites. These are the "push factors". GE2011 was their "another chance" to make further improvements.

This cannot be further from the truth. Just look at how the FAP tried to push the pro-foreigner agenda by training the camera on a PRC even during NDP! And how they 'ga-ga' support a New Citizen to run for the election. Their recalcitrance is far worse that what many SGs can imagine. And that means that many SGs will vote for the FAP with the misguided idea that they 'have changed', only to be shocked when they re-open the floodgate and go back to their ruthless and sucking ways after the GE. Short of the FAP losing 2/3 majority, NOTHING WILL CHANGE. Instead, if the FAP wins a super majority again, expect them to double up replacing SGs with New Citizens, so that SGs will never have a chance to kick them out of power again. This GE is REALLY the last opportunity for SGs to - like what the WP says - EMPOWER THEIR FUTURE!

 

[Victory2016]

I Expect a 4% swing only......

Means East Coast remains in PAP's claws......51%/49%

Sorry to bust all your bubbles......

 

[JohnTan]

If WP can't win this time, we can still hope for a by-election.

That will only happen if the entire GRC team is decimated. No by-election as long as one member out of 4,5 or 6 is still left standing.

 

[aurvandil]

After a slow start, SDP is starting to catch fire. Their team and message have found fertile soil in Holland-Bukit Timah because of the unique demographic characteristics of that GRC. Consequently, the probability that SDP will win Holland-Bukit Timah is now > 50%.

On Lina Chiam, there is some speculation that she will not be able to recapture Potong Pasir due to the low key nature of her campaign. The probability of her being able to win remains unchanged. The sympathy vote for Mr Chiam is strong. There were a lot of guilty consciences in Potong Pasir after the narrow loss in 2011. With the P65 demographic change and opposition renaissance led by WP, the probability that Chiams will be able to reclaim Potong Pasir stands at above 50%.

Mounbatten SMC is another SMC that is slowly coming into play. Jeannette has been running a decent campaign but she has been overshadowed by the gains made by WP and SDP. The demographic characteristics for Mountbatten SMC are similar to that of Holland-Bukit Timah. While she is still behind at the moment, the gap is so small that it can be easily closed.

Based on the above, the probability that the PAP will lose the 2/3 majority is now > 50%.

 

[gingerlyn]

sure or not mr vandil.
you sound like an indian.

 

[enterprise2]

After a slow start, SDP is starting to catch fire. Their team and message have found fertile soil in Holland-Bukit Timah because of the unique demographic characteristics of that GRC. Consequently, the probability that SDP will win Holland-Bukit Timah is now > 50%.

On Lina Chiam, there is some speculation that she will not be able to recapture Potong Pasir due to the low key nature of her campaign. The probability of her being able to win remains unchanged. The sympathy vote for Mr Chiam is strong. There were a lot of guilty consciences in Potong Pasir after the narrow loss in 2011. With the P65 demographic change and opposition renaissance led by WP, the probability that Chiams will be able to reclaim Potong Pasir stands at above 50%.

Mounbatten SMC is another SMC that is slowly coming into play. Jeannette has been running a decent campaign but she has been overshadowed by the gains made by WP and SDP. The demographic characteristics for Mountbatten SMC are similar to that of Holland-Bukit Timah. While she is still behind at the moment, the gap is so small that it can be easily closed.

Based on the above, the probability that the PAP will lose the 2/3 majority is now > 50%.

Really! Just thought EC and Fengshan will fall and even that is 50:50!

 

[aurvandil]

The PAP appears to be in disarray.

Their initial campaign was to focus on WP which was perceived to be the biggest threat. The campaign started with the PAP conceding the WP held SMCs and GRCs. Fengshan was carved out of East Coast GRC to give East Coast a fighting chance. McPherson was taken out of Marine Parade to preserve a pre-65 rich SMC for future use. Marine Parade was made into a dumping ground for Geylang, Joo Chiat and other hostile polling districts. While it would be nice if Marine Parade could be retained, there would be no real tears if it was lost as it contained a stubborn old man who refused to leave the stage when he was supposed to.

As the campaign got underway, this carefully laid plan started to go awry. It started with the larger that expected attendances at the first WP rally. This quickly snowballed and they began to receive feedback of massive anger and resentment. Using rally size as a proxy, it became likely that WP might manage a swing of 8 to 10%. Based on the polling results of GE 2011, this would mean that WP would win 27 out of 28 seats contested.

To prevent this from happening, the PAP therefore concentrated all fire on the town council issue, hoping that it would create doubt in the mind of the swing voters. This tactic did not appear to have the intended effect. The WP rallies grew in size and there was a strong social media backlash. The assault ended in a PAP rout with the WP "surprise" counnter attack using the Punggol East town council accounts.

While the PAP focused on the WP, they ignored the SDP. From a slow start with a crowd of less than 5,000, CSJ emerged to become the "Nicole Seah" of GE 2015. The crowd at SDP rallies have now surged past the 20,000 mark. After the rallies, supporters queue for as long as 1.5 hours to shake CSJ's hand and buy his books. On social media, CSJ has reached the levels Nicole Seah achieved in 2015. Given the demographic mix of Holland-Bukit Timah, this means that there is a high chance that the SDP will be able to make a GRC breakthrough.

After an unprecedented Sunday rally "break" by the PAP, there is therefore a noticable shift in focus away from WP to SDP. In doing so, the PAP appears to be conceding the 27 seats to WP. Stopping the SDP has now become their top priority. Beyond the loss of the 2/3 majority, the emergence of SDP in Parliament would mean the birth of a potential WP-SDP coalition that can challenge the PAP for control of the government in 2020.

There are now just 2 days of campaigning left. The completely unexpected emergence of SDP under CSJ makes it extremely difficult for the PAP to come up with any well thought out plan. Based on Monday's rallies, their strategy appears to be to use personal attacks and character assassination to try and stop CSJ. It is uncertain if this will be effective. CSJ has emerged from his years of exile with a stillness of heart. His response to the attacks appears to be the Biblical teaching of "turning the other cheek" while gently rebuking the PAP in the errors of their ways. This approach seems be very effective in winning CSJ a great deal of respect from Singaporeans. By attacking him viciously, the PAP will reinforce the widespread perception that the PAP is an aggressive, oppressive "bully".

 

[GoldenDragon]

The PAP appears to be in disarray.

Their initial campaign was to focus on WP which was perceived to be the biggest threat. The campaign started with the PAP conceding the WP held SMCs and GRCs. Fengshan was carved out of East Coast GRC to give East Coast a fighting chance. McPherson was taken out of Marine Parade to preserve a pre-65 rich SMC for future use. Marine Parade was made into a dumping ground for Geylang, Joo Chiat and other hostile polling districts. While it would be nice if Marine Parade could be retained, there would be no real tears if it was lost as it contained a stubborn old man who refused to leave the stage when he was supposed to.

As the campaign got underway, this carefully laid plan started to go awry. It started with the larger that expected attendances at the first WP rally. This quickly snowballed and they began to receive feedback of massive anger and resentment. Using rally size as a proxy, it became likely that WP might manage a swing of 8 to 10%. Based on the polling results of GE 2011, this would mean that WP would win 27 out of 28 seats contested.

To prevent this from happening, the PAP therefore concentrated all fire on the town council issue, hoping that it would create doubt in the mind of the swing voters. This tactic did not appear to have the intended effect. The WP rallies grew in size and there was a strong social media backlash. The assault ended in a PAP rout with the WP "surprise" counnter attack using the Punggol East town council accounts.

While the PAP focused on the WP, they ignored the SDP. From a slow start with a crowd of less than 5,000, CSJ emerged to become the "Nicole Seah" of GE 2015. The crowd at SDP rallies have now surged past the 20,000 mark. After the rallies, supporters queue for as long as 1.5 hours to shake CSJ's hand and buy his books. On social media, CSJ has reached the levels Nicole Seah achieved in 2015. Given the demographic mix of Holland-Bukit Timah, this means that there is a high chance that the SDP will be able to make a GRC breakthrough.

After an unprecedented Sunday rally "break" by the PAP, there is therefore a noticable shift in focus away from WP to SDP. In doing so, the PAP appears to be conceding the 27 seats to WP. Stopping the SDP has now become their top priority. Beyond the loss of the 2/3 majority, the emergence of SDP in Parliament would mean the birth of a potential WP-SDP coalition that can challenge the PAP for control of the government in 2020.

There are now just 2 days of campaigning left. The completely unexpected emergence of SDP under CSJ makes it extremely difficult for the PAP to come up with any well thought out plan. Based on Monday's rallies, their strategy appears to be to use personal attacks and character assassination to try and stop CSJ. It is uncertain if this will be effective. CSJ has emerged from his years of exile with a stillness of heart. His response to the attacks appears to be the Biblical teaching of "turning the other cheek" while gently rebuking the PAP in the errors of their ways. This approach seems be very effective in winning CSJ a great deal of respect from Singaporeans. By attacking him viciously, the PAP will reinforce the widespread perception that the PAP is an aggressive, oppressive "bully".

Easily the best post for GE 2015. Congrats.

 

[dancingshoes]

fully agree that pap is a oppressive bully.

 

[fupikee]

Easily the best post for GE 2015. Congrats.

Looks like it is desperate situation for FAP.

There may be still a trick up their sleeves ....a 319 incident aka Chen Sui Bian shooting or similar false flag ops.

Look out for it in the next three days....hopefully it is not done, else the oppo is fucked!!!!

Go back read with Catherine wrote in her last open letter to pinky...

Now, what can Singaporeans do then???

 

[THE_CHANSTER]

Easily the best post for GE 2015. Congrats.

aurvandil is the only GE commentator in this forum I will take seriously.

 

[GoldenDragon]

aurvandil is the only GE commentator in this forum I will take seriously.

Sadly, he does not post regularly. Maybe 3-4 more bros just as good.

A pity scroobal and Ramseth no longer here. Easily the 2 most prolific contributors to this forum. Neither chose to be Mr Popular or to form alliances. Standards dropped when they left. This post will sure invite lots of comments! Hahahahaa. I am waiting ..................

 

[Reddog]

Wah Aurvandil, very perceptive. Great analysis.

The PAP appears to be in disarray.

Their initial campaign was to focus on WP which was perceived to be the biggest threat. The campaign started with the PAP conceding the WP held SMCs and GRCs. Fengshan was carved out of East Coast GRC to give East Coast a fighting chance. McPherson was taken out of Marine Parade to preserve a pre-65 rich SMC for future use. Marine Parade was made into a dumping ground for Geylang, Joo Chiat and other hostile polling districts. While it would be nice if Marine Parade could be retained, there would be no real tears if it was lost as it contained a stubborn old man who refused to leave the stage when he was supposed to.

As the campaign got underway, this carefully laid plan started to go awry. It started with the larger that expected attendances at the first WP rally. This quickly snowballed and they began to receive feedback of massive anger and resentment. Using rally size as a proxy, it became likely that WP might manage a swing of 8 to 10%. Based on the polling results of GE 2011, this would mean that WP would win 27 out of 28 seats contested.

To prevent this from happening, the PAP therefore concentrated all fire on the town council issue, hoping that it would create doubt in the mind of the swing voters. This tactic did not appear to have the intended effect. The WP rallies grew in size and there was a strong social media backlash. The assault ended in a PAP rout with the WP "surprise" counnter attack using the Punggol East town council accounts.

While the PAP focused on the WP, they ignored the SDP. From a slow start with a crowd of less than 5,000, CSJ emerged to become the "Nicole Seah" of GE 2015. The crowd at SDP rallies have now surged past the 20,000 mark. After the rallies, supporters queue for as long as 1.5 hours to shake CSJ's hand and buy his books. On social media, CSJ has reached the levels Nicole Seah achieved in 2015. Given the demographic mix of Holland-Bukit Timah, this means that there is a high chance that the SDP will be able to make a GRC breakthrough.

After an unprecedented Sunday rally "break" by the PAP, there is therefore a noticable shift in focus away from WP to SDP. In doing so, the PAP appears to be conceding the 27 seats to WP. Stopping the SDP has now become their top priority. Beyond the loss of the 2/3 majority, the emergence of SDP in Parliament would mean the birth of a potential WP-SDP coalition that can challenge the PAP for control of the government in 2020.

There are now just 2 days of campaigning left. The completely unexpected emergence of SDP under CSJ makes it extremely difficult for the PAP to come up with any well thought out plan. Based on Monday's rallies, their strategy appears to be to use personal attacks and character assassination to try and stop CSJ. It is uncertain if this will be effective. CSJ has emerged from his years of exile with a stillness of heart. His response to the attacks appears to be the Biblical teaching of "turning the other cheek" while gently rebuking the PAP in the errors of their ways. This approach seems be very effective in winning CSJ a great deal of respect from Singaporeans. By attacking him viciously, the PAP will reinforce the widespread perception that the PAP is an aggressive, oppressive "bully".