Scroobal,
This is strategy analysis, not statistical analysis...
Goh Meng Seng
Hougang residents got balls and are well-known hardcore loyalists of WP. Provened over the past 20 years even when LTK was alone and internet hardly send shock wave into PAP camp, Hougang residents held hard and fought back to keep at least one opposition in parliament while majority of Singaporeans were afraid to vote for opposition. Time has changed for the worse of PAP when more worms are being exposed, more than YSL saga, I see no reason or the capability of PAP to swing huge votes, not even more than 5%. Look at MBT who had caused massive grievances and making HDB unaffordable across the society, what was his percentage vote swing in the last election and why was it that he still maintained his seat in parliament while you are still here with every Singapore issue standing in your favour? If you are a strategist we expected MBT to be out from parliament.
As much as your analysis tried to presume human are rationale, I doubt it stands because of the behavourial pattern and 60% of our population are still "mentally challenged" to see through PAP agenda. Fortunately Hougang residents have clear mind as far back as 20 years ago when many Singaporeans failed to see.
I can bet with you that WP will win, whoever stands, even when there is 3-corner fight. WP brand in hougang has rooted so deep that it captured Aljunied ground and extending towards other eastern region of Singapore. The only way to uproot WP in Hougang, is to uiproot its residents. If PAP captured it, it will be merged with other GRC. Similarly, I see Potong Pasir SMC will be uprooted by merging with Kallang-Molmein or Bishan GRC in the next election. This part requires no thinking head if you know PAP well.