Hougang By-Eelection & Impact of YSL Saga II

[deepblue0911]

Mr. Goh, lucky you nvr took Political Science in uni. If you write the above article, I guarantee you sit for sub papers.

 

[byleftcan]

I would wish politics is such a simple affair to begin with!

Maybe you have missed the conclusion totally. Simple conclusion, no 3 corner fight, not much of excitement but nervous outcome for WP.

This by-election is more of the future directional indicator rather than the by-election itself. That's the conclusion. How WP fare will influence its behavior and dynamics in future GEs. It would be a bit surprising if WP kena more than 8% vote swing or even lose its seat but that is not totally inconceivable. This is because of the backlash they are experiencing from their weekly Hammer sales which indicated that negative undercurrent of Yaw-gate is quite huge amidst a calm surface projected so far.

Unlike some so call "political analysts", I will not make too bold predictions on this by-election. Even some of my most optimistic WP friends have to admit that there seems to be a tense undercurrent going around. This will keep them in suspense until polling day.

Goh Meng Seng

I don't think WP has to worry too much. They voted for YSL because he is WP, not because they voted for YSL per se. Given their diehard belief in the WP brand, WP will win Hougang SMC. Again. Even if they put a stray cat and say that it is the WP candidate to compete with PAP or another party in an improbable 3-corner fight.

 

[sleaguepunter]

aiya... pap also no action. desmond no where to be seen. even the lackeys still singing karoke in RC. bye eRection more likely.

 

[rusty]

Unlike some so call "political analysts", I will not make too bold predictions on this by-election. Even some of my most optimistic WP friends have to admit that there seems to be a tense undercurrent going around. This will keep them in suspense until polling day.
Goh Meng Seng

Your optimistic WP friends divulging information to you with or without LTK's knowledge?
Do you think it is right for them share WP's internal affairs with you?
In your own opinion, as a political analyst, unlike other so call "political analysts", is it a good practice for a member to share party's thoughts and information with outsiders?

 

[GoldenDragon]

Sebastian and the behind the scene man Chris - will be waiting for the next set of instructions from their handlers.

Witnessed one of them meeting his handler not too long ago.

 

[GoldenDragon]

Believe it or not, such sentiments are fermenting. The most ugly comment I have heard so far is "WP backside hasn't even warm the seat but yet start shitting all over place".

Goh Meng Seng

I rather see shit from one's backside than shit from the mouth. For the latter, no prizes for the right guess.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Actually, if you really want me to say it out plainly, I will just say that Sylvia Lim's provocative remarks about going to Tampines is to get NSP contest in Hougang.

It is NOT the norm for Sylvia Lim or LTK or any key CEC members to talk about next GE moves so early, least about confirming where WP will contest. There is no necessity for Sylvia to confirm WP's intention to contest in Tampines. That is really an odd thing to say in the context of WP.

There is a reason for such desperate premature move; they seriously need a 3 corner fight in Hougang and apparently they have found that the ground isn't that sweet after all.

Considering the fact that Nicole Seah has declared not to contest in Hougang, it would be advantageous for NSP to send anyone else. 3 corner fight with a weak 3rd candidate is normally good for incumbent.

I do not think NSP will take the bait. NSP will back off gracefully and let WP face the situation alone.


Goh Meng Seng

Mr. Goh, lucky you nvr took Political Science in uni. If you write the above article, I guarantee you sit for sub papers.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

That is why WP members like you failed miserably. Why should members like my friends have to report to LTK if they are chatting with me? Get permission to talk? Must well declare everything as TOP Secret.

Goh Meng Seng

Your optimistic WP friends divulging information to you with or without LTK's knowledge?
Do you think it is right for them share WP's internal affairs with you?
In your own opinion, as a political analyst, unlike other so call "political analysts", is it a good practice for a member to share party's thoughts and information with outsiders?

 

[scroobal]

That is really a bizarre comment.

There is a reason for such desperate premature move; they seriously need a 3 corner fight in Hougang and apparently they have found that the ground isn't that sweet after all.


Goh Meng Seng

 

[vamjok]

That is why WP members like you failed miserably. Why should members like my friends have to report to LTK if they are chatting with me? Get permission to talk? Must well declare everything as TOP Secret.

Goh Meng Seng

ai you today eat full nothing to do again is it?

so early wake up first thing is to attack WP. hokkien we call this eat full no shit come out

 

[AhFook]

I am surprised that you can only come up with such nonsense instead of refuting me on the backlash WP has been facing on the ground.

Goh Meng Seng

What negative backlash on the ground WP facing? You know the HG ground, you work the ground recently or you fortune telling? Any reasonable person reading your many posts will easily come to the conclusion what a sourgrape you have turn into. That you are being so hurt that you are sprouting nonsense in your 'expert analysis'. Can't see anyone more thick-skin with so many 'expect analysis' after failing twice in the election bid and 'resigned' from 2 parties in the process. Like a primary 6 kid giving 'expect analysis' on how to the psle after failing twice and changed school 2 times.

 

[methink]

I don't think WP has to worry too much. They voted for YSL because he is WP, not because they voted for YSL per se. Given their diehard belief in the WP brand, WP will win Hougang SMC. Again. Even if they put a stray cat and say that it is the WP candidate to compete with PAP or another party in an improbable 3-corner fight.

Yes agreed.

YSL will not factor in this BE. PAP's blunders - foreigners taking over sinkieland, MRT's woes, high COE, rising costs, jobs, HDB runaway prices, medical care, ministerial pay, MP's arrogance, accountability, etc... will drive this BE.

GSM, there are bigger issues at hand. YSL is history. PAP's intransigence since the last GE and PE will hold centre stage. Hougang BE will be the barometer of PAP's fall in the years to come. Then it is GE 2016. PAP's waterloo.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Dear Scroobal,

Yes, it really sounds bizarre to many people and it takes me a while to understand what Sylvia Lim is trying to do.

With the understanding of the ground backlash, it is really counter-intuitive for Sylvia to make such comment at such "sensitive" time. Ok, imagine that if you know that your opponent is threatening to beat you up at Hougang if you decide to beat him at Tampines and you know that you are already weaken at this moment, would you continue to agitate him at this moment?

At this instance, your bigger opponent is actually fighting you. If you know that by luring this little opponent of yours into the ring, there will be a confusion and you could well get away by letting both of them fight and you sit and win, why not?

Sylvia Lim is doing exactly this. If you have followed WP closely for the past 10 years you would understand that Sylvia Lim and LTK don't really talk nor reply to reporters that easily, unless it suits their agenda. For GE strategy, they would definitely want to keep the cards close to their hearts. For eg, WP has not shown any interests in MK until the very last minute. They didn't even talk about it just months before GE.

Thus for Sylvia Lim to talk about contesting Tampines, there must be an agenda behind it. The key is getting NSP going into Hougang for a 3 corner fight. As I have explained before, NSP may just prevent PAP from getting the Swing Votes; i.e. the swing votes from WP will go to NSP instead of PAP. In this way, WP will still win even if it is to get below 50%.

For English educated people like you, it is understandable that you won't understand such strategy. There is a term in Chinese, jijiangfa. Only Chinese Educated LTK could come up with such strategic move. However, Sebastian Teo is also Chinese educated and I don't think he would be fooled that easily.

Goh Meng Seng

That is really a bizarre comment.

 

[amazonforest]

To GMS,

Do you acknowledge the existence of the "handlers" in NSP since you were ex-Secretary General?

Witnessed one of them meeting his handler not too long ago.

 

[HTOLAS]

Let's say you are right about WP's intentions, and that if the there were a 3-cornered fight, it would split support fot the PAPzis rather than WP, don't you think the WP have taken the most difficult route to achieve their aims? After all, they would have to influence the opinions of the whole CEC of another party over which they have no control.

Wouldn't it be a whole lot easier to pay someone to run as an independent? Indeed, might it not be simpler to provoke an individual (say, a disgruntled 'independent' political anal yst) to take up the role?

Are you trying to write The Romance of the Three Parties?

Dear Scroobal,

Yes, it really sounds bizarre to many people and it takes me a while to understand what Sylvia Lim is trying to do.

With the understanding of the ground backlash, it is really counter-intuitive for Sylvia to make such comment at such "sensitive" time. Ok, imagine that if you know that your opponent is threatening to beat you up at Hougang if you decide to beat him at Tampines and you know that you are already weaken at this moment, would you continue to agitate him at this moment?

At this instance, your bigger opponent is actually fighting you. If you know that by luring this little opponent of yours into the ring, there will be a confusion and you could well get away by letting both of them fight and you sit and win, why not?

Sylvia Lim is doing exactly this. If you have followed WP closely for the past 10 years you would understand that Sylvia Lim and LTK don't really talk nor reply to reporters that easily, unless it suits their agenda. For GE strategy, they would definitely want to keep the cards close to their hearts. For eg, WP has not shown any interests in MK until the very last minute. They didn't even talk about it just months before GE.

Thus for Sylvia Lim to talk about contesting Tampines, there must be an agenda behind it. The key is getting NSP going into Hougang for a 3 corner fight. As I have explained before, NSP may just prevent PAP from getting the Swing Votes; i.e. the swing votes from WP will go to NSP instead of PAP. In this way, WP will still win even if it is to get below 50%.

For English educated people like you, it is understandable that you won't understand such strategy. There is a term in Chinese, jijiangfa. Only Chinese Educated LTK could come up with such strategic move. However, Sebastian Teo is also Chinese educated and I don't think he would be fooled that easily.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[deepblue0911]

That is why WP members like you failed miserably. Why should members like my friends have to report to LTK if they are chatting with me? Get permission to talk? Must well declare everything as TOP Secret.

Goh Meng Seng

If your friends share the privileged information with you, and you actually has no problem revealing it to the public? Where's the integrity you advocate so vehemently?

 

[Zombie]

I am surprised that you can only come up with such nonsense instead of refuting me on the backlash WP has been facing on the ground.
Goh Meng Seng

you give nonsense, you get nonsense in reponse.. what do you expect?

this is my nonsense to you..

 

[sleaguepunter]

Maybe SL don't view nsp as a credible opponent. That why announce tempines early to inform the residents.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Even without a 3 corner fight in Hougang, the extend of the vote swing against WP will dictate on WP's ability and strength of bashing into others' territories. If WP actually loses Hougang (i.e. 15% vote swing) in a straight fight, it would mean that even Aljunied may be in danger in next GE as well. Aljunied GRC has only a margin of less than 5%. A vote swing of more than 8% against WP in Hougang stronghold would imply a disastrous impact on WP's overall party brand image due to Yaw-gate.

The result of Hougang by-election will also be viewed as the judgement of Hougang voters on Low Thia Khiang's legacy and the method he handled Yaw-gate. Hougang is after all LTK's home base to start with. Whether his decades of hard work and legacy in Hougang would be destroyed by Yaw Shin Leong will be reflected by the outcome of Hougang by-electoin.

Goh Meng Seng

Its amazing what passes for political "ANALysis" these days. Or is it just Goh Meng Seng.

You're overdoing it and its obvious. Your painting of the backlash against WP is overblown and reeks of the kind of propaganda I thought only 154th brothel will spin. Unless you're telling me you're a captive now and work in tandem.

I am not at liberty to comment about the hammer sales thing but I'm cock sure you know the truth is not what you said, and by repeatedly bringing up in this forum in a deliberately misleading manner so as to provoke an accidental response is truly despicable of you. Because you know no one will be able to rebut you without compromising certain things.

Your brand of gutter politics ranks you even below SPH.

 

[kingrant]

Aiyah, Capitan,

Sylvia already inside parliament, but you are still outside. Who is more credible to talk? Sudah lah!

If you are as good as you sound, you would be in Parliament and not them liao! People already talking inside there and you are still analising.

Actually, if you really want me to say it out plainly, I will just say that Sylvia Lim's provocative remarks about going to Tampines is to get NSP contest in Hougang.

It is NOT the norm for Sylvia Lim or LTK or any key CEC members to talk about next GE moves so early, least about confirming where WP will contest. There is no necessity for Sylvia to confirm WP's intention to contest in Tampines. That is really an odd thing to say in the context of WP.

There is a reason for such desperate premature move; they seriously need a 3 corner fight in Hougang and apparently they have found that the ground isn't that sweet after all.

Considering the fact that Nicole Seah has declared not to contest in Hougang, it would be advantageous for NSP to send anyone else. 3 corner fight with a weak 3rd candidate is normally good for incumbent.

I do not think NSP will take the bait. NSP will back off gracefully and let WP face the situation alone.


Goh Meng Seng