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Economic News
- Thread starter FHBH12
- Start date
US economic growth gauge rises to highest since April 2010: ECRI
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 06, 2013
[NEW YORK] A measure of future US economic growth strengthened last week to its highest level in three and a half years, while the annualized growth rate ticked higher, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said that in the week ended Nov 29 its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.8, its highest since April 2010, from a revised 132.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 132.5.
The index's annualized growth rate increased to 2.9 per cent, its highest since early October, from a revised 2.6 per cent a week earlier. The growth rate was originally reported at 2.7 per cent. - Reuters
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/bre...-gauge-rises-highest-april-2010-ecri-20131206
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 06, 2013
[NEW YORK] A measure of future US economic growth strengthened last week to its highest level in three and a half years, while the annualized growth rate ticked higher, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said that in the week ended Nov 29 its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.8, its highest since April 2010, from a revised 132.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 132.5.
The index's annualized growth rate increased to 2.9 per cent, its highest since early October, from a revised 2.6 per cent a week earlier. The growth rate was originally reported at 2.7 per cent. - Reuters
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/bre...-gauge-rises-highest-april-2010-ecri-20131206
US: Stocks surge on upbeat jobs report
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 06, 2013
[NEW YORK] US stocks bounced higher in opening trade on Friday after a better-than-expected labor report showed solid job creation in November.
At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 54.90 points (0.35 per cent) to 15,876.41.
The broad-based S&P 500 advanced 9.79 (0.55 per cent) to 1,794.82, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 35.71 (0.89 per cent) to 4,068.87. - AFP
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/bre...s/us-stocks-surge-upbeat-jobs-report-20131206
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 06, 2013
[NEW YORK] US stocks bounced higher in opening trade on Friday after a better-than-expected labor report showed solid job creation in November.
At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 54.90 points (0.35 per cent) to 15,876.41.
The broad-based S&P 500 advanced 9.79 (0.55 per cent) to 1,794.82, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 35.71 (0.89 per cent) to 4,068.87. - AFP
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/bre...s/us-stocks-surge-upbeat-jobs-report-20131206
Very good economic data is coming out of US now. Singapore and Malaysia economies are likely to surge next year. And where does the extra money likely to go? I suppose into stocks and properties. On property front, Singapore's cooling measures are over-done, so unlikely we get to see prices increasing generally. So I think more money will flow into overseas properties.
With a buoyant us economy likely there will be some offset effect from the fed tapering.. Funds will see more opportunities overin US.
There will likely be an outflow of funds from Asia. Local Assets prices will not raise in response to a resurgent US.
There will be pressure to increase interest rates over here which might further dampen the local property market.
I am generally not really looking forward to a strong US economy in the short term
I think US is still keen to keep interest rate low as e debt level is too high next year. I think buying power will improve once US economy improves. QE is a drug that shd be gradually removed. I have faith in US tt it will phase out QE painlessly by mid of next year.
Haha. Good to hear alternative view.
But i think that Singapore and Malaysia will likely face some slow down generally from the property sector as some funds will start to see more opportunities overseas then here.
This might be offset by the China giant investment. But generally asset prices here are high and the US and euro is depressed. Once signs show improvement guess where the money will flow to.
Either Singapore and Malaysia will continue to flat line or come down toa level that is attractive to foreign investment then it will start to move in the right direction again.
That's just how I see the situation.
But i think that Singapore and Malaysia will likely face some slow down generally from the property sector as some funds will start to see more opportunities overseas then here.
This might be offset by the China giant investment. But generally asset prices here are high and the US and euro is depressed. Once signs show improvement guess where the money will flow to.
Either Singapore and Malaysia will continue to flat line or come down toa level that is attractive to foreign investment then it will start to move in the right direction again.
That's just how I see the situation.
US Fed's stimulus likely to end soon
Expectations rise after new jobs report points to growing economic momentum
BY LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 11, 2013
FOR the first time since President Barack Obama declared in the aftermath of the Great Recession that the American economy was on its way to recovery, it now seems that the American economy is, well, on its way to recovery. Really.
At least, that is the way it looks if you examine the new jobs data that was released on Dec 6. It showed that the unemployment rate fell to 7 per cent in November, the lowest level since 2008 and the first inauguration of Mr Obama when the unemployment rate was at 7.3 per cent. The improvement on the jobs front reflects stronger hiring by the private sector with around 203,000 jobs added across almost all sectors of the economy, including in agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare and the service industries.
The official US unemployment rate has been falling steadily, but very slowly, in the last four years from its high of 10 per cent on October 2009. Hence a year later, in November 2010, the unemployment rate was still stuck at 9.8 per cent.
And, while the White House has been trying to put a positive spin on the declines in the unemployment rate that took place under Mr Obama, much of what seemed to be good news on the jobs front actually reflected bad news: the rise in the number of American workers who were giving up looking for a job and exited from the labour market.
But the new jobs report points out to growing economic momentum and surprised many observers who had expected that the shutdown of the federal government in October, coupled with the continuing legislative stalemate on the budget in Washington, would create a sense of uncertainty in the private sector and discourage employers from hiring new workers.
In fact, not only did the private sector hire more workers in November, the average job growth in the last three months has been revised higher by the US Labor Department in its Friday report.
Adding to the sense of rising optimism about the American economy have been other reports that show an increase in consumer confidence and spending in the last three months.
And there are even some signs that members of the political class in Washington are starting to get their act together.
No one is of course expecting that the White House and the Republicans on Capitol Hill would succeed in concluding a so-called "grand bargain" on fiscal policy that would involve taking major steps towards reducing the US deficit, and would require large cuts in the government financed retirement and health insurance programmes (a necessary Democratic concession) in return for increasing government revenue by raising taxes (a needed Republican concession).
But it seems that Republican and Democratic lawmakers negotiating behind the scenes in recent weeks may be close to reaching an agreement that would lead to a cease-fire in the fiscal battles in Washington, allowing for new government spending in the next two years (around US$1 trillion a year) and averting another threat of government shutdown and new uncertainty about whether Congress would extend the US debt limit.
In a way, this kind of temporary fiscal cease-fire reflects the recognition by the Congressional Republicans, who have been on the receiving end of a lot of criticism, including from their allies in the business community, for engineering the recent government shutdown, that they have no choice but to embrace a more pragmatic approach.
At the same time, the White House and the Democrats have concluded that they don't have the votes needed to pass new fiscal stimulus programmes, and that this political reality would probably not change after next year's mid-term Congressional elections that are expected to preserve the current status quo.
But the good news on the economic front could have an effect on the policies of one leading player in Washington. Indeed, there are growing expectations that in light of the improving economic conditions and the fiscal cease-fire in Washington, the Federal Reserve would finally start winding down its monetary stimulus programme under which it has been pumping US$85 billion a month into the economy through its massive bond-buying operations.
A decision by the Fed to scale back on the programme could come in the next policymaking meeting on Dec 17-18, or could be made during the first meeting next year.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/pre...ion/us-feds-stimulus-likely-end-soon-20131211
Expectations rise after new jobs report points to growing economic momentum
BY LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 11, 2013
FOR the first time since President Barack Obama declared in the aftermath of the Great Recession that the American economy was on its way to recovery, it now seems that the American economy is, well, on its way to recovery. Really.
At least, that is the way it looks if you examine the new jobs data that was released on Dec 6. It showed that the unemployment rate fell to 7 per cent in November, the lowest level since 2008 and the first inauguration of Mr Obama when the unemployment rate was at 7.3 per cent. The improvement on the jobs front reflects stronger hiring by the private sector with around 203,000 jobs added across almost all sectors of the economy, including in agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare and the service industries.
The official US unemployment rate has been falling steadily, but very slowly, in the last four years from its high of 10 per cent on October 2009. Hence a year later, in November 2010, the unemployment rate was still stuck at 9.8 per cent.
And, while the White House has been trying to put a positive spin on the declines in the unemployment rate that took place under Mr Obama, much of what seemed to be good news on the jobs front actually reflected bad news: the rise in the number of American workers who were giving up looking for a job and exited from the labour market.
But the new jobs report points out to growing economic momentum and surprised many observers who had expected that the shutdown of the federal government in October, coupled with the continuing legislative stalemate on the budget in Washington, would create a sense of uncertainty in the private sector and discourage employers from hiring new workers.
In fact, not only did the private sector hire more workers in November, the average job growth in the last three months has been revised higher by the US Labor Department in its Friday report.
Adding to the sense of rising optimism about the American economy have been other reports that show an increase in consumer confidence and spending in the last three months.
And there are even some signs that members of the political class in Washington are starting to get their act together.
No one is of course expecting that the White House and the Republicans on Capitol Hill would succeed in concluding a so-called "grand bargain" on fiscal policy that would involve taking major steps towards reducing the US deficit, and would require large cuts in the government financed retirement and health insurance programmes (a necessary Democratic concession) in return for increasing government revenue by raising taxes (a needed Republican concession).
But it seems that Republican and Democratic lawmakers negotiating behind the scenes in recent weeks may be close to reaching an agreement that would lead to a cease-fire in the fiscal battles in Washington, allowing for new government spending in the next two years (around US$1 trillion a year) and averting another threat of government shutdown and new uncertainty about whether Congress would extend the US debt limit.
In a way, this kind of temporary fiscal cease-fire reflects the recognition by the Congressional Republicans, who have been on the receiving end of a lot of criticism, including from their allies in the business community, for engineering the recent government shutdown, that they have no choice but to embrace a more pragmatic approach.
At the same time, the White House and the Democrats have concluded that they don't have the votes needed to pass new fiscal stimulus programmes, and that this political reality would probably not change after next year's mid-term Congressional elections that are expected to preserve the current status quo.
But the good news on the economic front could have an effect on the policies of one leading player in Washington. Indeed, there are growing expectations that in light of the improving economic conditions and the fiscal cease-fire in Washington, the Federal Reserve would finally start winding down its monetary stimulus programme under which it has been pumping US$85 billion a month into the economy through its massive bond-buying operations.
A decision by the Fed to scale back on the programme could come in the next policymaking meeting on Dec 17-18, or could be made during the first meeting next year.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/pre...ion/us-feds-stimulus-likely-end-soon-20131211
Najib lauds Iskandar's tourism, business success
This is reflected by the opening of Traders Hotel, Puteri Harbour Indoor Theme Park and Legoland
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 12, 2013
[ISKANDAR] The opening of Traders Hotel, Puteri Harbour Indoor Theme Park and Legoland Resort Malaysia reflects the success in developing Iskandar Malaysia as a tourism and business destination, said Prime Minister Najib Razak yesterday.
Since their opening in June, Traders Hotel and the Puteri Harbour theme park have welcomed 90,000 visitors, according to Malaysian daily Business Times.
The Legoland Malaysia Theme Park, which opened more than a year ago, has played host to about two million visitors, Mr Najib said when opening the 283-room Traders Hotel.
Traders Hotel is owned and developed by Destination Resorts and Hotel Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Khazanah Nasional Bhd.
Earlier, Mr Najib, who is also Khazanah chairman, chaired the 69th Khazanah board of directors' meeting at Traders Hotel.
Meanwhile, in his speech at the opening of the 249-room Legoland Hotel, Mr Najib said Iskandar Malaysia has recorded committed investments of almost RM130 billion (S$51 billion) in various sectors as at October. Of the total of RM129.44 billion investments, 35 per cent are from foreigners.
His speech was read by Johor Menteri Besar Mohamed Khaled Nordin.
The manufacturing sector contributed RM45.68 billion, followed by properties (RM33.66 billion), government spending (RM8.31 billion) and others, including utilities, emerging technologies, tourism, education, healthcare, finance, logistics, retail and industry (RM41.78 billion).
Mr Najib said the huge amount of foreign investments is a testament of the growing trust and confidence in the various projects' sustainability and Malaysia's stability.
"I am also pleased to announce that 44 per cent of the total committed investments, or RM56.32 billion, have been realised up to October this year.
"A lot have been achieved but much more needs to be done if Iskandar Malaysia is to achieve its 2025 target of having a population of three million, 1.46 million jobs and a cumulative investment of RM383 billion over 20 years.
"The federal government is committed to ensuring the success of Iskandar Malaysia and we are working with the Johor government, the private and public sectors, and the people of Johor to ensure the economic region's growth."
He said he is thankful that Iskandar Malaysia is well and truly off the ground and that people are starting to see growth taking shape in the economic region.
"It is vital to ensure that projects are successfully completed on time and within the budget to build investor and public confidence in Iskandar Malaysia and attract more investments.
"This will generate a momentum that will bring about multiplier effects and sustainable economic activities."
The development of Iskandar Malaysia is now into the second phase of its 20-year development period.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/pre...s-iskandars-tourism-business-success-20131212
This is reflected by the opening of Traders Hotel, Puteri Harbour Indoor Theme Park and Legoland
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 12, 2013
[ISKANDAR] The opening of Traders Hotel, Puteri Harbour Indoor Theme Park and Legoland Resort Malaysia reflects the success in developing Iskandar Malaysia as a tourism and business destination, said Prime Minister Najib Razak yesterday.
Since their opening in June, Traders Hotel and the Puteri Harbour theme park have welcomed 90,000 visitors, according to Malaysian daily Business Times.
The Legoland Malaysia Theme Park, which opened more than a year ago, has played host to about two million visitors, Mr Najib said when opening the 283-room Traders Hotel.
Traders Hotel is owned and developed by Destination Resorts and Hotel Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Khazanah Nasional Bhd.
Earlier, Mr Najib, who is also Khazanah chairman, chaired the 69th Khazanah board of directors' meeting at Traders Hotel.
Meanwhile, in his speech at the opening of the 249-room Legoland Hotel, Mr Najib said Iskandar Malaysia has recorded committed investments of almost RM130 billion (S$51 billion) in various sectors as at October. Of the total of RM129.44 billion investments, 35 per cent are from foreigners.
His speech was read by Johor Menteri Besar Mohamed Khaled Nordin.
The manufacturing sector contributed RM45.68 billion, followed by properties (RM33.66 billion), government spending (RM8.31 billion) and others, including utilities, emerging technologies, tourism, education, healthcare, finance, logistics, retail and industry (RM41.78 billion).
Mr Najib said the huge amount of foreign investments is a testament of the growing trust and confidence in the various projects' sustainability and Malaysia's stability.
"I am also pleased to announce that 44 per cent of the total committed investments, or RM56.32 billion, have been realised up to October this year.
"A lot have been achieved but much more needs to be done if Iskandar Malaysia is to achieve its 2025 target of having a population of three million, 1.46 million jobs and a cumulative investment of RM383 billion over 20 years.
"The federal government is committed to ensuring the success of Iskandar Malaysia and we are working with the Johor government, the private and public sectors, and the people of Johor to ensure the economic region's growth."
He said he is thankful that Iskandar Malaysia is well and truly off the ground and that people are starting to see growth taking shape in the economic region.
"It is vital to ensure that projects are successfully completed on time and within the budget to build investor and public confidence in Iskandar Malaysia and attract more investments.
"This will generate a momentum that will bring about multiplier effects and sustainable economic activities."
The development of Iskandar Malaysia is now into the second phase of its 20-year development period.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/pre...s-iskandars-tourism-business-success-20131212
KL industrial production in October better than expected
BY S JAYASANKARAN IN KUALA LUMPUR
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 12, 2013
MALAYSIA'S industrial production posted a better than expected showing in October, growing 1.7 per cent year on year as opposed to the street's 0.8 per cent forecast, and mirroring the month's 9.8 per cent surge in exports.
But economists warned that the key challenge next year would be inflation. The government has raised fuel prices 10 per cent immediately after the May general election and will hike electricity tariffs on Jan 1 by almost 15 per cent.
The Bank of America-Merrill Lynch thinks that fuel prices will be increased again next year. That's why its economist Chua Hak Bin raised his inflation assessment of Malaysia. "We are raising our average inflation forecast to 3.6 per cent (from 3.2 per cent previously) in 2014 and to 4.5 per cent (from 3.6) in 2015, because of the electricity tariff hikes," Mr Chua said in a report released yesterday.
The even greater jump in 2014 is because the economists are factoring a 6 per cent goods and services tax that the government intends to implement in April next year. "The GST will impact inflation by about 1.4 percentage points," Mr Chua estimated.
The numbers underline the challenge facing the government of Prime Minister Najib Razak. Mr Najib could conceivably increase giveaways to the poor: Petronas is likely to generate substantial savings from the hike in energy tariffs and so could increase its dividends to the government.
Barclays thinks that with Malaysia's continuing growth momentum with its implied threat of inflation, the central bank would tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates by 25 basis points early next year.
Merrill's Mr Chua thinks so as well but expects a rate hike later in the year. "BNM will next meet on Jan 29, 2014," he noted in his report yesterday. "We expect BNM to stay on hold at the January meeting, but are pencilling in a 25 basis point hike in the second half of 2014 to 3.25 per cent given our expectation of a pick-up in inflation pressures."
For all that, Malaysia continued to chart a growth trajectory. Industrial production in October was led by manufacturing (3.3 per cent) and electricity (4.8 per cent). Mining continued to contract (minus 3.6 per cent) for a third consecutive month although Barclays said that the drag was less steep (minus 4.3 per cent in September).
The pick-up in both industrial production and exports served to confirm the fact that Malaysia was starting to benefit from firmer global demand, including for electronics. "We expect the manufacturing and export recovery to continue," Mr Chua said.
Merrill forecast gross domestic product growth of 4.6 per cent this year and 5 per cent next year. Said Mr Chua: "Strengthening exports would offset fiscal consolidation, supporting growth in 2014. Private consumer spending and investment will likely remain healthy, even as public spending eases."
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/pre...l-production-october-better-expected-20131212
BY S JAYASANKARAN IN KUALA LUMPUR
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 12, 2013
MALAYSIA'S industrial production posted a better than expected showing in October, growing 1.7 per cent year on year as opposed to the street's 0.8 per cent forecast, and mirroring the month's 9.8 per cent surge in exports.
But economists warned that the key challenge next year would be inflation. The government has raised fuel prices 10 per cent immediately after the May general election and will hike electricity tariffs on Jan 1 by almost 15 per cent.
The Bank of America-Merrill Lynch thinks that fuel prices will be increased again next year. That's why its economist Chua Hak Bin raised his inflation assessment of Malaysia. "We are raising our average inflation forecast to 3.6 per cent (from 3.2 per cent previously) in 2014 and to 4.5 per cent (from 3.6) in 2015, because of the electricity tariff hikes," Mr Chua said in a report released yesterday.
The even greater jump in 2014 is because the economists are factoring a 6 per cent goods and services tax that the government intends to implement in April next year. "The GST will impact inflation by about 1.4 percentage points," Mr Chua estimated.
The numbers underline the challenge facing the government of Prime Minister Najib Razak. Mr Najib could conceivably increase giveaways to the poor: Petronas is likely to generate substantial savings from the hike in energy tariffs and so could increase its dividends to the government.
Barclays thinks that with Malaysia's continuing growth momentum with its implied threat of inflation, the central bank would tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates by 25 basis points early next year.
Merrill's Mr Chua thinks so as well but expects a rate hike later in the year. "BNM will next meet on Jan 29, 2014," he noted in his report yesterday. "We expect BNM to stay on hold at the January meeting, but are pencilling in a 25 basis point hike in the second half of 2014 to 3.25 per cent given our expectation of a pick-up in inflation pressures."
For all that, Malaysia continued to chart a growth trajectory. Industrial production in October was led by manufacturing (3.3 per cent) and electricity (4.8 per cent). Mining continued to contract (minus 3.6 per cent) for a third consecutive month although Barclays said that the drag was less steep (minus 4.3 per cent in September).
The pick-up in both industrial production and exports served to confirm the fact that Malaysia was starting to benefit from firmer global demand, including for electronics. "We expect the manufacturing and export recovery to continue," Mr Chua said.
Merrill forecast gross domestic product growth of 4.6 per cent this year and 5 per cent next year. Said Mr Chua: "Strengthening exports would offset fiscal consolidation, supporting growth in 2014. Private consumer spending and investment will likely remain healthy, even as public spending eases."
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/pre...l-production-october-better-expected-20131212
I'm expecting property buying momentum to resume in Q1 2014 after a cooling period in Q4 2013 due to the cooling measures. Money is flowing into Malaysia and Singapore, driven by strong economic recovery in US and China. 2014 will be a very good year.
China, advanced economies to lead 2014 growth
ADB: In Q3, S Korea and India strengthened while HK and Taiwan slowed
BY ANTHONY ROWLEY IN TOKYO
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 12, 2013
IN a reversal of roles, Asia's developing economies will be piggy-backing on renewed vitality in advanced economies in 2014, as they have done for much of this year, the Asian Development Bank said in a report published yesterday.
The exception is China, which should perform strongly enough in 2014, thanks largely to infrastructure investments which will raise its own growth rate and that of East Asia as a whole by 0.1 per cent, the report suggested.
In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook Update for 2013, the ADB said that growth momentum is likely to continue picking up in the US and Japan over the coming year, while the euro area will continue to drag on overall industrialised nation performance.
Data on gross domestic product (GDP) through the third quarter suggests that the major industrial economies are on track to meet the 0.9 per cent growth rate forecast for 2013, the ADB said.
The bank retained its growth forecast for US GDP in 2013 at 1.7 per cent but adjusted its 2014 projection for US growth upward to 2.6 per cent, while warning that fiscal policy in the US "remains a risk".
The euro area, meanwhile, "appears to have turned the corner, pulling out of recession as a whole in the second quarter of 2013, but the outlook remains fragile".
For Japan, the ADB has scaled down its growth forecast for 2013 by 0.2 per cent to 1.7 per cent. "Calls for fiscal consolidation mean that Japan's growth in 2014 will have to rely on sources outside of the public sector (and) weakening external demand is a concern."
In the case of China, the ADB has raised its forecast for 2013 by 0.1 per cent to 7.7 per cent in 2013 and to 7.5 per cent in 2014, thanks mainly to public investment in infrastructure.
"Elsewhere in East Asia, (South) Korea posted in the third quarter its strongest growth since the first quarter of 2011 thanks to robust private consumption and machinery investment.
"In contrast, growth slowed in the third quarter in Taiwan and Hong Kong as slower export growth and internal factors dragged on these two economies."
South-east Asia's growth forecast is tempered for 2013 and next year, the ADB said. "Typhoon damage will moderate rapid growth in the Philippines before major reconstruction gets under way, and the political turmoil in Thailand is expected to undermine its growth."
South Asia, on the other hand, "is on track to meet growth expectations of 4.7 per cent in 2013 and 5.5 per cent in 2014".
"After bottoming out in the first fiscal quarter, India's economy seems to have recovered on the back of rebounding exports and higher industrial and agricultural output," it said.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/pre...-advanced-economies-lead-2014-growth-20131212
ADB: In Q3, S Korea and India strengthened while HK and Taiwan slowed
BY ANTHONY ROWLEY IN TOKYO
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 12, 2013
IN a reversal of roles, Asia's developing economies will be piggy-backing on renewed vitality in advanced economies in 2014, as they have done for much of this year, the Asian Development Bank said in a report published yesterday.
The exception is China, which should perform strongly enough in 2014, thanks largely to infrastructure investments which will raise its own growth rate and that of East Asia as a whole by 0.1 per cent, the report suggested.
In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook Update for 2013, the ADB said that growth momentum is likely to continue picking up in the US and Japan over the coming year, while the euro area will continue to drag on overall industrialised nation performance.
Data on gross domestic product (GDP) through the third quarter suggests that the major industrial economies are on track to meet the 0.9 per cent growth rate forecast for 2013, the ADB said.
The bank retained its growth forecast for US GDP in 2013 at 1.7 per cent but adjusted its 2014 projection for US growth upward to 2.6 per cent, while warning that fiscal policy in the US "remains a risk".
The euro area, meanwhile, "appears to have turned the corner, pulling out of recession as a whole in the second quarter of 2013, but the outlook remains fragile".
For Japan, the ADB has scaled down its growth forecast for 2013 by 0.2 per cent to 1.7 per cent. "Calls for fiscal consolidation mean that Japan's growth in 2014 will have to rely on sources outside of the public sector (and) weakening external demand is a concern."
In the case of China, the ADB has raised its forecast for 2013 by 0.1 per cent to 7.7 per cent in 2013 and to 7.5 per cent in 2014, thanks mainly to public investment in infrastructure.
"Elsewhere in East Asia, (South) Korea posted in the third quarter its strongest growth since the first quarter of 2011 thanks to robust private consumption and machinery investment.
"In contrast, growth slowed in the third quarter in Taiwan and Hong Kong as slower export growth and internal factors dragged on these two economies."
South-east Asia's growth forecast is tempered for 2013 and next year, the ADB said. "Typhoon damage will moderate rapid growth in the Philippines before major reconstruction gets under way, and the political turmoil in Thailand is expected to undermine its growth."
South Asia, on the other hand, "is on track to meet growth expectations of 4.7 per cent in 2013 and 5.5 per cent in 2014".
"After bottoming out in the first fiscal quarter, India's economy seems to have recovered on the back of rebounding exports and higher industrial and agricultural output," it said.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/pre...-advanced-economies-lead-2014-growth-20131212
Closer to home, the fastest growing property market might be Vietnam mid of next year, but I think it is risky. Iskandar is still a much safer bet, as Singapore cooling measure stabilises the market and Singaporeans/PRs look forward to a cheaper and less stressful place for weekend leisure.
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Abt 7yrs.. time for Bank loan interest rate to up liao..
Yes, New Zealand is expected to up the rates slightly after so many years. I think by end of next year, rates will be up slightly for Singapore as banks widen their margin.
Optimism on the rise: MAS survey
Forecasters point to outlook in industry, trade
BY KELLY TAY [email protected]
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 12, 2013
[SINGAPORE] Things are looking as good as they can get, for now: Growth projections are up, inflation forecasts are down, and economists are more optimistic about the Singapore economy than they were three months ago.
Professional forecasters, polled by the Monetary Authority of Singapore from late-November, now expect the Republic's economy to expand by 3.8 per cent in 2013 - up from the 2.9 per cent median forecast seen in September's survey.
This puts growth just above the mid-point of the government's projection of 3.5-4 per cent, which was raised last month from an earlier forecast of 2.5-3.5 per cent.
Noting how that itself was the product of another upward revision in August, economists told The Business Times that it is unsurprising that forecasters are now even more optimistic, given the recent upturn seen in manufacturing.
Said DBS economist Irvin Seah: "It's likely the market was overly cautious earlier this year, because pessimism from a bad 2012 might have spilled over... But lately we've seen external demand pick up. September was the turning point, where manufacturing indicators really did much better than expected."
Indeed, surprise and hearty showings in key economic indicators - like the purchasing managers' index and industrial production - have laid the foundation for more sanguine expectations.
Just last month, another double-digit (22.8 per cent) jump in electronics output boosted Singapore's manufacturing performance in October; this built upon September's robust showing, which had already exceeded expectations.
Said Barclays economist Joey Chew: "Mathematically, forecasters are following in line with higher growth numbers that came out for Q3. Logically, as well, I think this is supported by the fact that global indicators have been holding up pretty well - especially the purchasing managers' index (PMI) in the US."
The forecasters' upgrade for 2013 was led by rosier outlooks for the manufacturing and the wholesale and retail trade sectors. The former is now expected to grow 1.4 per cent, up from just 0.2 per cent in the previous survey; the latter is expected to rise 5.3 per cent, higher than the 3.3 per cent in September's poll.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX), however, are expected to contract more sharply by 3.9 per cent this year, compared to a 0.7 per cent contraction in the previous poll.
Sluggish domestic exports for much of the year prompted a hefty downgrade last month in Singapore's official NODX growth forecast - a contraction of 4-5 per cent is now expected this year, from an earlier projection of a zero to 1 per cent fall.
On the inflation front, the 21 private-sector economists and analysts who responded to the central bank's quarterly survey believe headline inflation will edge down to 2.4 per cent this year, compared to the 2.5 per cent reported in the earlier poll.
"It's been a good year in that growth has surprised on the upside, while inflation has surprised on the downside," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin, noting that the 2.4 per cent figure is even lower than the official forecast range of 2.5-3 per cent.
Added Ms Chew: "So far it's been more moderate than we expected, so it looks like inflation expectations have been pushed back for now. But it's only a matter of time (before inflation picks up), given (the economy's) stronger growth and tight labour market."
Indeed, moving into 2014, forecasters expect headline inflation to head northwards to come in at 2.8 per cent, and core inflation at 2.3 per cent.
Added Mr Seah: "I think inflation is going to pick up to above 3 per cent, and it's just a matter of how high it will be. March will also show us how the (new certificate of entitlement) recategorisation will affect (car) prices."
As for next year's growth prospects, forecasters expect the Singapore economy to expand by 3.9 per cent in 2014, even as they flag regional emerging market risks with the prospect of quantitative easing tapering off in the US.
Economists also pointed to ongoing shifts in neighbouring countries, such as the recent political unrest in Thailand, Indonesia's upcoming elections, and Malaysia's fiscal consolidation.
Said Mr Chua: "Compared to where we were 12 months ago - when our neighbourhood was in a stronger place and countries outside Asean were softer - now Asean is a bit more sketchy while the US, Europe, and Japan are looking firmer."
An improvement in global sentiment may not automatically provide a substantial lift to Singapore, either: "Even if global demand picks up, can Singapore capitalise on the upswing as it has historically? Given existing labour constraints, it's unclear whether firms will be able to take advantage of that, even if demand improves," added Mr Chua.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/top-stories/optimism-rise-mas-survey-20131212
Forecasters point to outlook in industry, trade
BY KELLY TAY [email protected]
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 12, 2013
[SINGAPORE] Things are looking as good as they can get, for now: Growth projections are up, inflation forecasts are down, and economists are more optimistic about the Singapore economy than they were three months ago.
Professional forecasters, polled by the Monetary Authority of Singapore from late-November, now expect the Republic's economy to expand by 3.8 per cent in 2013 - up from the 2.9 per cent median forecast seen in September's survey.
This puts growth just above the mid-point of the government's projection of 3.5-4 per cent, which was raised last month from an earlier forecast of 2.5-3.5 per cent.
Noting how that itself was the product of another upward revision in August, economists told The Business Times that it is unsurprising that forecasters are now even more optimistic, given the recent upturn seen in manufacturing.
Said DBS economist Irvin Seah: "It's likely the market was overly cautious earlier this year, because pessimism from a bad 2012 might have spilled over... But lately we've seen external demand pick up. September was the turning point, where manufacturing indicators really did much better than expected."
Indeed, surprise and hearty showings in key economic indicators - like the purchasing managers' index and industrial production - have laid the foundation for more sanguine expectations.
Just last month, another double-digit (22.8 per cent) jump in electronics output boosted Singapore's manufacturing performance in October; this built upon September's robust showing, which had already exceeded expectations.
Said Barclays economist Joey Chew: "Mathematically, forecasters are following in line with higher growth numbers that came out for Q3. Logically, as well, I think this is supported by the fact that global indicators have been holding up pretty well - especially the purchasing managers' index (PMI) in the US."
The forecasters' upgrade for 2013 was led by rosier outlooks for the manufacturing and the wholesale and retail trade sectors. The former is now expected to grow 1.4 per cent, up from just 0.2 per cent in the previous survey; the latter is expected to rise 5.3 per cent, higher than the 3.3 per cent in September's poll.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX), however, are expected to contract more sharply by 3.9 per cent this year, compared to a 0.7 per cent contraction in the previous poll.
Sluggish domestic exports for much of the year prompted a hefty downgrade last month in Singapore's official NODX growth forecast - a contraction of 4-5 per cent is now expected this year, from an earlier projection of a zero to 1 per cent fall.
On the inflation front, the 21 private-sector economists and analysts who responded to the central bank's quarterly survey believe headline inflation will edge down to 2.4 per cent this year, compared to the 2.5 per cent reported in the earlier poll.
"It's been a good year in that growth has surprised on the upside, while inflation has surprised on the downside," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin, noting that the 2.4 per cent figure is even lower than the official forecast range of 2.5-3 per cent.
Added Ms Chew: "So far it's been more moderate than we expected, so it looks like inflation expectations have been pushed back for now. But it's only a matter of time (before inflation picks up), given (the economy's) stronger growth and tight labour market."
Indeed, moving into 2014, forecasters expect headline inflation to head northwards to come in at 2.8 per cent, and core inflation at 2.3 per cent.
Added Mr Seah: "I think inflation is going to pick up to above 3 per cent, and it's just a matter of how high it will be. March will also show us how the (new certificate of entitlement) recategorisation will affect (car) prices."
As for next year's growth prospects, forecasters expect the Singapore economy to expand by 3.9 per cent in 2014, even as they flag regional emerging market risks with the prospect of quantitative easing tapering off in the US.
Economists also pointed to ongoing shifts in neighbouring countries, such as the recent political unrest in Thailand, Indonesia's upcoming elections, and Malaysia's fiscal consolidation.
Said Mr Chua: "Compared to where we were 12 months ago - when our neighbourhood was in a stronger place and countries outside Asean were softer - now Asean is a bit more sketchy while the US, Europe, and Japan are looking firmer."
An improvement in global sentiment may not automatically provide a substantial lift to Singapore, either: "Even if global demand picks up, can Singapore capitalise on the upswing as it has historically? Given existing labour constraints, it's unclear whether firms will be able to take advantage of that, even if demand improves," added Mr Chua.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/top-stories/optimism-rise-mas-survey-20131212
Price declines predicted in Asia
Dec 12, 2013 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
Respected media company CNBC has reported that 2014 will see lower prices in regional real estate markets, although the predicted declines offered by many will not be as drastic as some market commentators are expecting.
In a media report yesterday it reported: “A taper tantrum won't be the only reason why Asia's property prices will finally cool. Numerous housing curbs unleashed in Singapore, Hong Kong and China over the last few years are slowly wearing down persistent demand, while the prospect of higher interest rates and a flood of new homes hitting the market will inevitably take prices lower.”
The media outlet added that the decline won't be drastic and will likely only be in the single-digit range, given that governments will not allow any kind of drastic drop in prices.
PropertyGuru has already seen predictions of as much as a 15 percent price correction for 2014, although those views are few and far between.
“Time to shop for homes, people,” the CNBC report concluded.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prop...013/12/37026/price-declines-predicted-in-asia
Dec 12, 2013 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
Respected media company CNBC has reported that 2014 will see lower prices in regional real estate markets, although the predicted declines offered by many will not be as drastic as some market commentators are expecting.
In a media report yesterday it reported: “A taper tantrum won't be the only reason why Asia's property prices will finally cool. Numerous housing curbs unleashed in Singapore, Hong Kong and China over the last few years are slowly wearing down persistent demand, while the prospect of higher interest rates and a flood of new homes hitting the market will inevitably take prices lower.”
The media outlet added that the decline won't be drastic and will likely only be in the single-digit range, given that governments will not allow any kind of drastic drop in prices.
PropertyGuru has already seen predictions of as much as a 15 percent price correction for 2014, although those views are few and far between.
“Time to shop for homes, people,” the CNBC report concluded.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prop...013/12/37026/price-declines-predicted-in-asia
Looking at the jams (again) and the cooling measures in Singapore (again), I think Iskandar will still continue to be hot for quite some time next year.
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