Industry Disputes Morgan Stanley’s Dramatically Lowering Target Prices of SK Hynix and Samsung
- Editor Kim Eun-jin
- 2024.09.18 23:39
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Morgan Stanley released a report drastically lowering target stock prices of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics on September 15.
On September 15, Morgan Stanley released a report drastically lowering SK Hynix's target stock price by 54%, from 260,000 won (approximately $200) to 120,000 won, and adjusting Samsung Electronics' target stock price downward by 27.6%, from 105,000 won to 76,000 won. The reasons cited were a decrease in demand for general DRAM due to reduced smartphone and PC demand and an oversupply of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to price drops. Morgan Stanley also downgraded its investment opinion on the Korean tech sector from “neutral” to “cautious.”
The report, titled "Winter Looms," follows last month's "Prepare for the Peak," which warned of an AI bubble. It consistently took a pessimistic view of Korean memory semiconductor companies, citing sluggish demand for general DRAM and an oversupply of AI-specific HBM.
Morgan Stanley predicts that next year, the supply of HBM by memory companies will reach 250 billion gigabits (Gb), exceeding the demand (150 billion Gb) by 66.7%. It also forecasts that Samsung Electronics' full-scale entry into the HBM market will be a major cause of the oversupply.
The semiconductor industry views this outlook as excessively pessimistic. They argue that Morgan Stanley ignored the characteristics of the HBM market, which produces customized products with customer approval. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have publicly announced that "HBM volumes are sold out until 2025."
Critics also argue that Morgan Stanley underestimated the AI investments by big tech companies, which are the basis for HBM demand. The report predicts that the AI investment growth rate of 10 major tech companies will drop significantly from 52% this year to 8% next year.
This contrasts with Bloomberg's forecast of a 33.7% increase this year and a 13.4% increase next year for 13 major tech companies. Mizuho Securities also stated, "The HBM market will continue to grow as AI server investments increase."
Morgan Stanley also expects general DRAM to peak in the fourth quarter of this year and decline from next year until 2026, citing the lack of recovery in IT product consumption that uses semiconductors.
The global PC and smartphone markets are indeed sluggish, with reports indicating that the pre-order volume for Apple's 'iPhone 16' series during the first weekend of its release decreased by 13% compared to its predecessor.
However, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stated, "The demand for memory for smartphones and PCs is neither decreasing nor increasing."
Many believe that Morgan Stanley's outlook on the general DRAM market is overly pessimistic about the "mismatch between supply and demand." Morgan Stanley cited next year's memory capital expenditure reaching $100 billion (about 133 trillion won) as one of the reasons for the oversupply. However, considering that semiconductor companies are focusing on high-value products like HBM and enterprise SSDs, many analysts believe that the possibility of an oversupply of general DRAM is low.
Morgan Stanley's dismissal of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's claim that "focusing on HBM production will inevitably reduce the supply of general DRAM" as "baseless" also lowers the credibility of the report. Additionally, the report omitted the growing market for AI PCs and AI phones, which use more than twice the amount of general DRAM and NAND flash as regular products.
An industry insider criticized, "Morgan Stanley has often shown an ‘Indian rain dance’ behavior, continuously issuing negative reports until the market downturn."
Kim Eun-jin
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