Hong Kong's medical services are on par with singkieland,,,and looking at the figures,..HK in general has 600k travellers moving between HK and ah tiong land per day. Singkieland has just flights and maybe cruise ships,,,and the rate of singkieland is higher than in HK....so what gives? Cannot be the detection rates are better than HK,,,HK is not indonland,,,and Vietnam has a lower rate of infection too...It can also mean that the infected is already circulating and its like a normal flu. not a big deal
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
WUHAN CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
Last updated: February 10, 2020, 06:35 GMT
Cases - Deaths - Countries - Death Rate - Transmission Rate - Incubation - Age
Coronavirus Cases:
40,614
of which 6,494
in serious/critical condition
Deaths:
910
Recovered:
3,324
Currently Infected 36,380 Serious or Critical 6,494
(18%)Mild Condition 29,886
(82%)
Cases with Outcome 4,234 Recovered/Discharged 3,324
(79%)Deaths 910
(21%)
The charts above show the cumulative total at the close of the Feb. 9 at GMT+0 midnight time and don't include Feb. 10 count while still in progress. We will publish statistics on severe and recovered cases in the coming days.
Updated section: Coronavirus Mortality Rate.
Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country and Territory
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is affecting 28 countries and territories around the world. Dates below are based on GMT+0. We will start displaying the daily change count for Feb. 10 once Feb. 9 ends in Pacific Time.
The bulk of China's new cases and deaths are reported at about 22:00 GMT (5:00 PM ET) for Hubei, and at 00:00 GMT (7:00 PM ET).
Search:
TRANSMISSION RATE (Ro)
Country,
Territory
Total CasesFeb 9
CasesTotal
DeathsFeb 9
DeathsTotal
RecoveredTotal
SevereRegion China 40,171 +2,973 908 +97 3,280 6,484 Asia Japan 156 +67 4 Asia Singapore 43 +3 6 6 Asia Hong Kong 36 +10 1 Asia Thailand 32 10 1 Asia S. Korea 27 +3 3 Asia Taiwan 18 +1 1 Asia Malaysia 18 +2 3 Asia Australia 15 5 Oceania Vietnam 14 +1 3 Asia Germany 14 Europe USA 12 3 N.America France 11 1 Europe Macao 10 1 Asia U.A.E. 7 Asia Canada 7 N.America U.K. 4 +1 Europe Philippines 3 1 2 Asia India 3 Asia Italy 3 2 Europe Russia 2 Europe Spain 2 +1 Europe Cambodia 1 1 Asia Finland 1 1 Europe Nepal 1 Asia Sweden 1 Europe Sri Lanka 1 1 Asia Belgium 1 Europe
(estimated range)
3 - 4 (?)
(3- 4 newly infected from 1 case)
FATALITY RATE (CFR)
(WHO early estimate)
2% (?)
(more details)
INCUBATION PERIOD
(estimated)
2 - 14 days
(more details)
COUNTRIES AND TERRITORIES
(affected by 2019-nCoV)
28
(full list)
Latest Updates
February 10:
February 9:
- 60 new cases in Japan on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship. Total on ship quarantined in Japanese waters: 130 cases. Rest of Japan: 26 cases.
February 8:
- 3 new cases in Singapore. Out of 43 cases: 6 critical in ICU, 6 discharged.
- 1 new case in the UK. First in London
- 1 new case in Spain
- The novel coronavirus had already overtaken the total case count of SARS (8,096 cases worldwide) on January 30.
February 7:
- With 813 total deaths on February 8, 2020, the novel coronavirus has surpassed SARS (final toll of 774 deaths in 2003).
- 7 new cases in Singapore: information on each of the 40 Singapore cases so far (sex and age, days from onset of symptoms to 2019-nCoV infection confirmation, travel history to China, etc.). Of the 40 cases, 23 are male, 17 female; median age is 41 and five patients are aged 56.
- The US embassy in Beijing confirmed the deaths of a 60-year-old American woman in Wuhan on February 6.
- 5 new cases in France: four adults and a child. None of them severe.
- 3 new cases in Japan on cruise ship, bringing the total on the Diamond Princess to 64.
February 6:
February 5:
- 2 new cases in Canada (British Columbia): a man and a woman in their 30s. The man displayed only mild symptoms. Health officials said that young healthy people can have very mild symptoms that may manifest as a cold.
- 1 new case in Italy: a 29-year-old Italian national repatriated from Wuhan with other 55 Italians. First case of coronavirus in an Italian national (the other two were Chinese tourists visiting Italy).
- Death of Dr Li, the Chinese doctor who warned others to protect themselves, before being summoned and investigated by Chinese authorities for "making false comments" and "spreading rumors" denying the official story that only those who came into contact with infected animals could catch the virus.
- 1 new case in England: a British national who contracted the virus from an Asian country other than China.
- 1 new case in Germany (in Bavaria, bringing the total there to 11): the wife of an employee of the company from the district of Starnberg. Two of the couple's children also tested positive to the coronavirus.
- 1 new case in Australia, a 37-year-old Chinese woman part of the tourist group that was placed in quarantine. This is the 5th case in Queensland. 4 other cases have been confirmed in Victoria, 4 in NSW and 2 in South Australia to date.
February 4:
- 10 additional cases confirmed on board the cruise ship in Japan
- 1 new case in the United States (Wisconsin)
- 1 Japanese man in his 20s who deals with tourists is the 35th case in Japan. He had not been to China recently.
- 3 new coronavirus cases in South Korea; 2 men had traveled to Singapore for conference.
- 4 new cases confirmed in Singapore, including a six-month-old child of an infected couple.
- 2 new cases in Malaysia, 1 new case in Australia (Queensland).
- 1 death reported from Tianjin, China: the patient had developed fever and cough after shopping in a department store on January 22. The patient had a history of type 2 diabetes and hypertension.
China's National Health Commission (NHC) says that:
- Japan has confirmed at least 10 cases of coronavirus from a cruise ship in the port of Yokohama near Tokyo. A 80-year-old Hong Kong man on the ship, who tested positive to the virus, infected a number of other people. Earlier on the day, Japanese authorities had quarantined some 3,700 passengers in an attempt to contain the virus from causing an outbreak.
- 1 new case in Canada (second one in metro Vancouver): a woman in her 50s who had been hosting relatives from the Wuhan area
- Four-year-old in Malaysia is the first case in the country to have recovered after being infected by the coronavirus.
Other cases include:
- about 80% of those who died were over the age of 60.
- 75% had pre-existing conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.
- As they confirm 6 new cases in Singapore, 4 of which did not travel to China. Health official announce first local coronavirus transmissions.
- 2 new cases, both in their 60s, in Hong Kong: Health officials said it was suspected the virus had been transmitted locally.
Timeline:
- 1 new case in Taiwan is a returning evacuee who had displayed symptoms on Feb. 2 on arriving in Taiwan on a China Eastern Airlines charter flight.
- 6 new cases in Thailand.
- 2 new cases in Japan, 1 in Australia (the third in Queensland): an eight-year-old child from Wuhan.
- 1st case of coronavirus confirmed in Belgium (one of the nine repatriated from Wuhan on Feb. 2).
- a 39-year-old man died from the coronavirus in Hong Kong. According to reports, the patient had an underlying illness and had traveled to Wuhan on January 21.
How dangerous is the virus?
- On February 3, two new cases were reported in Germany, one is the children of a family already infected with the virus.
- On February 2, doctors in Thailand said they discovered medical treatment that cured a patient of coronavirus ‘in 48 Hours’
- On February 2, a death in the Philippines marked the first death occurring outside of China. It was a 44-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan who was admitted to the hospital on Jan. 25 with fever, cough, and sore throat, developed severe pneumonia but in the last few days “was stable and showed signs of improvement; however, the condition of the patient deteriorated within his last 24 hours resulting in his demise." reported the Philippine Department of Health.
- On February 2, China shut down another major city as it closed roads and restricted the movement of residents in Wenzhou, a city with a population of 9 million that is located 800 km away from Wuhan, in Hubei province. The Zhejiang province, where Wenzhou is located, has the highest number of confirmed cases outside the Hubei province.
- On February 1, the 8th case in the United States was reported (a male in his 20s, in Boston, MA).
- On January 31, the first 2 novel coronavirus cases in the UK, [18] the first 2 cases in Russia, [20] and the first case in Sweden and in Spain were reported. Canada reported its 4th case.
- On Jan. 31, the United States
- declared Coronavirus a Public Health Emergency
- issued 14 days quarantine rules for US citizens entering the US from China (mandatory if entering from the Hubei province).
- issued an order to deny entry to foreigners who have traveled to China within the past two weeks.
- On January 30, the novel coronavirus total case count surpassed that for SARS (which affected 8,096 people worldwide).
- On January 30, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency.
- On January 30 CDC confirmed the first US case of human to human transmission[17].
- Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the United States have reported cases in patients who didn't personally visit China, but contracted the virus from someone else who had visited Wuhan, China[15]. These cases of human to human transmission are the most worrisome, according to the WHO[16].
- Wuhan (the city where the virus originated) is the largest city in Central China, with a population of over 11 million people. The city, on January 23, shut down transport links. Following Wuhan lock down, the city of Huanggang was also placed in quarantine, and the city of Ezhou closed its train stations. This means than 18 million people have been placed in isolation. The World Health Organization (WHO) said cutting off a city as large as Wuhan is "unprecedented in public health history."[12] and praised China for its incredible commitment to isolate the virus and minimize the spread to other countries.
There are three parameters to understand in order to assess the magnitude of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus:
How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)
- Transmission Rate (Ro) - number of newly infected people from a single case
- Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - percent of cases that result in death
- Determine whether asymptomatic transmission is possible
The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person.
A more recent study is indicating a Ro as high as 4.08.[22]. This value substantially exceeds WHO's estimate (made on Jan. 23) of between 1.4 and 2.5[13], and is also higher than recent estimates between 3.6 and 4.0 and between 2.24 to 3.58 [23]. Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5 [5][6][7]
Based on these numbers, on average every case of the Novel Coronavirus would create 3 to 4 new cases.
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.
Fatality Rate (case fatality ratio or CFR) of the Wuhan Coronavirus
See full details: Wuhan Coronavirus Fatality Rate
The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2%, in the WHO press conference held on January 29, 2020 [16] . However, it noted that, without knowing how many were infected, it was too early to be able to put a percentage on the mortality rate figure.
A prior estimate [9] had put that number at 3%.
Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.
For comparison, the case fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.
Incubation Period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear)
See full details: Wuhan Coronavirus Incubation Period
Symptoms of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 (estimated ranges vary from 2-10 days, 2-14 days, and 10-14 days, see details), during which the virus is contagious but the patient does not display any symptom (asymptomatic transmission).
Age and conditions of Coronavirus cases
According to China's National Health Commission (NHC), about 80% of those who died were over the age of 60 and 75% of them had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.[24]
According to the WHO Situation Report no. 7 issued on Jan. 27:
A study of 138 hospitalized patients with NCIP found that the median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 42-68; range, 22-92 years) and 75 (54.3%) were men.[25]
- The median age of cases detected outside of China is 45 years, ranging from 2 to 74 years.
- 71% of cases were male.
The WHO, in its Myth busters FAQs, addresses the question: "Does the new coronavirus affect older people, or are younger people also susceptible?" by answering that:
Patient who died in the Philippines was a 44-year old male
- People of all ages can be infected by the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
- Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.
The patient who died in the Philippines on February 2, in what was the first death occurring outside of China, was a 44-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan who was admitted on Jan. 25 after experiencing fever, cough, and sore throat, before developing severe pneumonia. In the last few days, “the patient was stable and showed signs of improvement, however, the condition of the patient deteriorated within his last 24 hours resulting in his demise." according to the Philippine Department of Health.Serious Cases of 30 year old patients in France
As of Jan. 29, according to French authorities, the conditions of the two earliest Paris cases had worsened and the patients were being treated in intensive care, according to French authorities. The patients have been described as a young couple aged 30 and 31 years old, both Chinese citizens from Wuhan who were asymptomatic when they arrived in Paris on January 18 [19].
Age and Sex of the first deaths as reported by the China National Health Commission (NHC)
The NHC reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm on January 22, 2020. The deaths included 13 males and 4 females. The median age of the deaths was 75 (range 48-89) years.[21]
WHO Risk Assessment: Global Emergency
See full details: WHO coronavirus updates
On January 30, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency.
For more information from the WHO regarding novel coronavirus: WHO page on Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Comparisons:
Novel Coronavirus Worldometer Sections:
- Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
- SARS (November 2002 to July 2003): was a coronavirus that originated from Beijing, China, spread to 29 countries, and resulted in 8,096 people infected with 774 deaths (fatality rate of 9.6%). Considering that SARS ended up infecting 5,237 people in mainland China, Wuhan Coronavirus surpassed SARS on January 29, 2020, when Chinese officials confirmed 5,974 cases of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). One day later, on January 30, 2020 the novel coronavirus cases surpassed even the 8,096 cases worldwide which were the final SARS count in 2003.
- MERS (in 2012) killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected (fatality rate of 34.4%).
Then also need to compare to Japan which is no.2 right now for nCov cases. Found some stats that about 8.3million Chinese visited Japan annually. It's about 3.5m for Singapore. They have roughly similar detection rates as us based on Chinese visitors annually
So maybe there's a breakdown in HK health care system and their detection rates. This is speculative of course. But with HK society so fractured and their medical workers on strike recently, this remains a possibility.
But as u said, agree that the infection could have been circulating already like the normal flu.
