Jamus is concerned about inflation.
13 h ·
It doesn’t take a genius to observe that stuff is still frighteningly expensive. August’s inflation clocked in at a scorching 7.5 percent. If inflation were to persist at this rate, prices would double in less than a decade. This makes us poorer. Over the past 6 years, inflation was sufficiently contained that our real wages grew by almost 3 percent annually. But if inflation had grown at the rate it did this past 6 months, our incomes would have shrunk instead.
What can MAS do? It’s in a bit of a bind. It just tightened monetary policy again, but it was half-hearted. That’s because the Sing dollar has already strengthened against its main trading partners by 5%, even while it weakened against the U.S. dollar by almost 6%. Further tightening monetary policy also has consequences for unemployment. As it stands, it seems unlikely that the U.S. will be able to pull off the fabled “soft landing” of the economy, where inflation is tamed without triggering a recession.
The situation looks to be the same here. Tighter monetary policy will likely raise unemployment. This would mean a double whammy for our workers: a right jab from rising prices, a left hook from lost jobs. If we add to this potent mix another GST hike in January, we risk this being a shoryuken move that could well kick our economy into recession (yes, I was a child of the 80s, and Street Fighter references are not beyond me).
But there is a solution: take the windfall tax revenues the government raked in last year (an increase of more than 22%) and rebate those back to the people. Beyond natural justice (government should not be making money while citizens suffer), this also gives a nice little boost from expansionary fiscal policy. DPM Lawrence Wong had previously assured us that the government will address the inflation threat, should it get worse. It is now worse, so it makes sense for the government to act.
Earlier this month, I proposed some options in Parliament for what could be done. The fiscal package announced in June was $1.5 billion, which still leaves more than $7 billion is extraordinary surplus on the table. We can (and should) make use of this.
One approach—which is elegant and straightforward to implement—is to use the amount to postpone the GST increase. This can buy us two whole years, precious breathing room for the economy. Another option is to distribute this amount as GST vouchers. The government had promised, when it announced the GST hike, that such vouchers would cover GST expenses for between 2.5 and 20 years (depending on your income). But inflation has eroded the value of the original vouchers, by between 1 and 12 months. Giving out more GST vouchers restores the government’s original promise. A third way is to roll out another off-budget support package. This gives support to all, which is fair: we are all affected by higher inflation, regardless of income.
Yesterday, the government announced that it would make a special cost of living payment, albeit with different payout amounts for different income groups. I’m glad it has chosen to do so.
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