Jamus discusses cost of living issues.
26 January at 12:32 ·
There was a brief debate (perhaps exchange is more appropriate) on the rising
#CostOfLiving in the most recent Parliamentary sitting, in response to a number of questions filed on inflation, and its impact on Singaporeans. Inflation is one of those interesting beasts that, for the vast majority of the time, people choose to ignore. Not that it’s not there; rather, it tends to stay in the background, and while we complain, we generally accept some degree of price rises. If the central bank—in our case, that’s the MAS—is doing its job, inflation will be low and (largely) predictable, and so we kinda factor it into our day-to-day buying and selling decisions (and when we are negotiating our pay raise or complaining about the lack of it).
But when economists stare at inflation data, we tend to think in terms of underlying drivers. If pricing pressure is due to stuff like food or energy spikes resulting from bad weather or geopolitical turmoil (or even tangled supply chains), we don’t freak out as much. Not that they don’t matter. Rather, it’s because we tend to think that market forces will sort such supply-side aberrations out. In the sometimes-obscure language of central bankers, the effects are “transitory.” Often, the best cure for high prices are, well, high prices.
We get a little more worried when prices rise because workers are insisting on wage hikes, because they are facing steadily rising costs of living. Or when households factor higher prices into their budgets in anticipation of what they need to spend. Such demand-led pressures can get entrenched, in a self-reinforcing spiral of rising wages and prices. When that occurs, the final nail in the coffin is that our expectations of inflation itself becomes “unanchored” from traditional targets (usually around 2 percent).
Are we there yet in Singapore? Thankfully, I don’t think so quite yet. Although inflation is high—4% in the latest December report—it is lower when we take out the costs of food and energy (which are usually more volatile). This so-called “core” inflation is running at 2.1 percent in December. This is hot, but only a little more than the 2 percent target most central banks are comfortable with. But the picture isn’t all peaches and roses. As anyone who drives a car or pays for utilities would have observed, energy prices are up sharply (by more than 10%). And while food costs have not risen as quickly compared to a year ago, they have jumped by close to 4% (on an annualized basis) over the past few months.
When asked about this, the government accepted that there was indeed some inflation. But they stressed the more benign side of the story, and said they believed that price increases would eventually come under control. Personally, I think so too, but I do not think this will happen as quickly as economists (and central bankers) would like. That’s why a policy that allows the Sing dollar to appreciate could help absorb some of the impact of inflation.
We also need to think very seriously about the wisdom of a GST increase. The last few times Japan tried it, they experienced a surge in inflation (which, in their case, was actually welcome because they were facing close to zero inflation). For us, a GST hike would not just add fuel to the fire, it could also shock an economy that is only just on a rebound (Japan’s GDP growth likewise stalled when it put up GST). Sectors that will feel GST most directly (like F&B) remain weak.
Perhaps most importantly, people are also feeling the pain now. The
#workersparty believes that it is possible to make the numbers work without further increasing a regressive tax like GST, and to instead focus on other progressive sources. These include a wealth tax, additional tiers to property taxation, and adjusting the formula for the interest contribution from our reserves. We should also think more carefully about existing taxes on capital. Ultimately, while we agree that changing demographics mean that our expenditures (especially in healthcare) will increase, we think that a different mix to our revenue sources is both possible and desirable.
#makingyourvotecount
Postscript: a commenter shares that core inflation in Singapore excludes not food and energy, but accommodation and transport, which are larger components of most Singaporeans’ spending. This is correct. Nevertheless, the point of core inflation being lower than headline remains, as is the fact that transport and food costs having risen significantly in recent times.