I do not engage politics of envy. There is of course credits due to WP for breaking the first GRC and I have given LTK that for making this breakthrough.
However, as I have said, if you want to know how the future works, you must first understand what doesn't work in the past.
Your argument, at first look, seems to be reasonable but no, if taken into account of the results in other places, it doesn't stand. All other places do not have MBT. MK has Yaacob the flooding minister. East Coast has Raymond Lim the jamming minister. But at least for housing and transport, it affects EVERYONE on this island, regardless where they are.
You are just taking a look at local issues as well as opponent as consideration. But as I have said, support level for opposition depends on many other factors. i.e. The general sentiment due to public policy failures (eg. floods, housing, transport etc), individual candidate's strength, party branding, consistent grassroot/ground work, opponents, campaign messaging etc. What you have stated is only one of the factors. the general sentiment due to policy failures are given at large. WP has put up the best team of individuals, including two MPs plus CSM, WP has the best party branding, WP has consistent ground work in Aljunied (if taken pre-GE2006 into consideration, that is more than 8 years of knocking doors). Something must be missing somewhere.
Goh Meng Seng
P.S. in terms of opponents, actually some of the PAP MPs are known to be bossy and unpopular. Even if you are saying George Yeo is "well liked" but it has already proven in GE2006, without fielding any MP or heavy weight like CSM, WP could already garner 44%. BTW, there aren't any local issues in Tampines and NSP branding is definitely not as top as WP. We do not have extraordinary candidates as well.
U have to really factor in that PAP had the incumbent advantage in Aljunied GRC
Secondly, there isn't much local issue for WP to exploit other than that dormitory issue.
Lastly, unlike Tampines, they don't have unpopular minister and no other heavyweight in the team nor was there any TPL in MP GRC.
Rather than to engage in politics of envy, give credit when it due. 54% is a decent score. I estimated 48-52%.