Chitchat What happened in Saudi Arabia in the last 3 days ?

gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

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aurvandil · Dec 18, 2017

As things stand, Saudi Arabia does not have the ability to declare war on Iran.

As long as Iran does not outright invade Saudi Arabia, the US is not inclined to launch an invasion of Iran.

With these constraints, the provision of such missile technology to proxy players is a valid optimum strategy.

It is also a proven strategy with which the Iranians have a lot of experience with. Note their provision of similar technology to Hezbollah and the Palestinians for use against Israel. While we cannot preclude a MH17 type incident from happening, I think the Iranians have the necessary experience to use this strategy without triggering an outright war.

scroobal said:
But firing that missle escalates the conflict rather than help move to a settlement. No country will accept an immediate neighbour that poses a threat to their core national interest. The Soviets was forced to withdraw their missles from Cuba for the very same reason.

We have a doctrine that is common knowledge - stop our water supply and it will be a devasting pre-emptive strike. There is no second guessing. No settlement or negotiation.

Iran has no business playing in Saudi’s backyard. Anywhere else is fair game.

Thick Face Black Heart · Dec 18, 2017

aurvandil said:
With these constraints, the provision of such missile technology to proxy players is a valid optimum strategy.

It is also a proven strategy with which the Iranians have a lot of experience with. Note their provision of similar technology to Hezbollah and the Palestinians for use against Israel. While we cannot preclude a MH17 type incident from happening, I think the Iranians have the necessary experience to use this strategy without triggering an outright war.

All long as all parties concerned are keeping the region in conflict and fragmented, it plays into the US's geopolitical interest which is to prevent any regional hegemon from emerging and dominating the landscape. The only disaster in recent memory was the Iraqi 2003 invasion under a weak and misguided president.

scroobal · Dec 18, 2017

At this moment in time, no one has a coherent strategy except maybe the Iranians. Trump has singlehandedly wrecked the US Foreign policy and no one knows what he thinks or does save acting in spurts to please his voter base.

For the Saudi’s, they have internal and external challenges created by themselves within a short span in time. Their Yemen war has been a military, political and humanitarian disaster.

Turkey’s leader has become highly volatile and I am sure everyone is taking turns to make use of him for their own ends.

With Syria and Libya is shambles, everyone is watching what next?

In essence, a great unknown.

Even Tillerson is lost on a daily basis.

gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

This is a very long investigative piece in 3 parts - it presents a fascinating different perspective on what Hezbollah as an organisation have evolved into since the days of Israeli resistance..

The secret backstory of how Obama let Hezbollah off the hook - Part 1
A global threat emerges
How Hezbollah turned to trafficking cocaine and laundering money through used cars to finance its expansion.

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gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

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gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

The secret backstory of how Obama let Hezbollah off the hook - Part 2
Everywhere and Nowhere
From its headquarters in the Middle East, Hezbollah extends its criminal reach to Latin America, Africa and the United States.

gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

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gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

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gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

The secret backstory of how Obama let Hezbollah off the hook - Part 3
A battle against enemies far and near
As negotiations for the Iran nuclear deal intensify, the administration pushes back against Project Cassandra.

gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

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gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

McMaster’s influence on the strategy is clear as it relates to Russia and China. The national security advisor has consistently viewed both countries as offering serious challenges to U.S. security that must be met with diplomatic tools on a par with military deterrence, including alliances, technology, education and economic power. However, when it comes to the administration’s views of Turkey and Qatar, the influence of what can be termed the Kushner bloc—alluding to the President’s influential advisor, son-in-law Jared Kushner—is evident. McMaster has tagged both nations as key sources of funding for the spread of extremist Islamic ideology. It’s a view that runs counter to both the State Department and the Pentagon, but is in line in line with the Kushner influence that has aligned the White House closely with Saudi Arabia at a time—not by coincidence—of unprecedented instability and tension in the Gulf region. That realignment can also be seen is the administration’s deepening involvement in the disastrous war in Yemen, with the White House now saying it will support Saudi plans to ‘escalate in order to de-escalate.’

gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

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gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

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gatehousethetinkertailor · Dec 18, 2017

Another long read - but this long devastating article received a response from Former Obama officials Rob_Malley and StephenPomper respond to devastating - both admit that Obama lethal strike program made tragic mistakes; small steps taken to improve it were't enough. Welcome honesty and time for serious reckoning.