Temasek=Dubai World

[Debonerman]

Botak! When my son becomes the Prime Minister, I am going to fuck you up hard!​

Game plan....Return to Sinapore....Elected to MP by the backdoor of the safest GRC...Senior Minister of State Trade and Industry concurrent Finance......Minister of Defence concurrent Foreign Affairs....Acting Prime Minister....and Voila Prime Minister! All with the help of Holy Gohs!

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

One of the strongest similarities between Dubai and Sinkapore is the way the government is non-transparent in the way it works and how the press in both countries are used entirely to promote positive PR.

The over reliance of FT is but a manifestation of an obsession with growing faster than what the natural inhabitants can provide. In DUbaid's caes there may be better reasons than for Sinkapore as we already have establiesdh ports and a financial infrastructure.

 

[illLEEgal]

SINGAPORE WILL ONLY BE WORST.

BECAUSE DUBAI DON'T HAVE A PAP million$ GOVT.

 

[theblackhole]

minister lim reassured singaporeans our companies in dubai are prepared.....the news is not surprising as singaporean companies have already done what is necessary to avoid financial losses...good for singapore!

so singapore is not hit badly?

 

[lee6100]

minister lim reassured singaporeans our companies in dubai are prepared.....the news is not surprising as singaporean companies have already done what is necessary to avoid financial losses...good for singapore!

so singapore is not hit badly?

Dubai World's CIO was a Singaporean - Dr. Yu Lai Boon. res ipsa loquitur

 

[theblackhole]

so we are well informed? so we're spared the slaughter? so we have more reason to celebrate, spend and rejoice?

merry christmas to all!

 

[longbow]

I suspect that the reason for our high public debt is a matter of accounting.

The Gov borrows pretty much most of the $$$ from CPF and uses it to invest overseas. So that would create a high public debt. But one must take into account what GIC has? My suspicion is that GIC has more than enough to cover CPF liability a few times over.

No US also borrows from its CPF but for them they use the $$ to fund Gov expenditures, Iraq war etc etc.

Our GDP is US$180B so debt is 90+ percent of that. Our GIC portfolio is close to $350B. On top of that remember that Gov also has Temasek which probably holds another $130B in Gov assets. Temasek's funds are internally generated from all the GLC's income (PSA, SIA, Singtel). However, recently they have started borrowing but the amount is small as percentage of portfolio.

 

[longbow]

"Moreover, our reserves are meant for imports as we don't have any natural resources. "

Please lah, although we have no oil, we have the port and our huge neighbor with lots of natural resources (Indonesia). Aside from making money from PSA there are spin off industries like refining (good port helps), trade finance, maritime, supplying ships, bunker fuel, repairs, ..... And this port resource has been making $$$ for Singapore since Raffles stepped ashore.

Also our import figures are skewed. We are major entrepot so our imports are huge because they are not for local consumption but to be reexported. Our reserves are way to high.

I am not concerned at all with currency issue because of capital flight. S$ not commonly traded currency. MAS has billions in reserves and have more than enought money to break the back of any speculator. As for MAS wrong footing traders - make sense right, traders are trying to arbitrage against MAS policy.

We are not Dubai. Dubai spent all they borrowed (short term borrowed from foreigners that can ask for their money back) on glitzy hotels and real estate. Dubai has no resource at all - it does not even have an important port.

Singapore borrows from CPF and that is longgg term and they can change the rules to reduce CPF withdrawal. The borrowed money is used to buy blue chip investments. OK mistakes and poor decisions were made recently but in general GIC investments tend to be solid. To be fair world economy is facing extraordinary times. But on the whole GIC portfolio is a lot better than Dubai.

The collapse of one Pan-El resulted in stock exchanges on both sides of the causeway to shut down. When the economy faces excess capacity, the impact of a crisis of confidence is far more damaging. Everything will fall like dominoes.

When there is a capital flight. Our currency will collapse. Our reserves are peanuts. That why's Singapore need to establish swaps lines with many countries. Even during good times, the MAS has to constantly wrong-foot the currency traders and speak in very opaque manner about the widening and shifting of trading bands.

Moreover, our reserves are meant for imports as we don't have any natural resources. Singapore is also a financial centre with plenty of hot money sloshing around. On top of that, there are many speculators who have invested in properties. Now, we are also a human capital centre, with a potential 2 million human flight or exodus.

You have noticed my careful choice of words - "Singapore" , "Bangkok" and my parallel reference to "Dubai" rather than "Temasek", "Thailand" or "UAE". Unfortunately, the nuances are lost on you.

Athens and Sparta have collapsed but Greece survived. When Bangkok collapsed, Thais went up-country to farm. If Dubai collapsed, the UAE still has oil. We can't say the same about Singapore, a tiny barren city which is also the state. Notice also I talked about Singapore rather than Temasek.

Try harder next time.

 

[halsey02]

Singapore may face excess capacity when all the mega projects are completed.

# mega gambling dens (aka integrated resorts)
# mega shopping malls (ION Orchard, Orchard Central, etc.)
# mega condo and landed projects (Sentosa, Keppel Bay, Marina)
# mega BFC (Business Financial Centre, offices, hotels, etc.)
# mega others

I can see the parallels: Bangkok 1997 that sets off the Asian Financial Crisis; Dubai 2009 that is happening now.

You forgot to add:ies
#mega political cabinet salar

 

[Leongsam]

Please advice, thanks.

Should be "Please ADVISE...".

"Advice" is a noun.

 

[longbow]

You are correct about potential excess capacity. However big difference is that many of these are developed with private money.

Gambling - Sentosa dumped in billions, Sands also dumped in billions but agree that we probably backed some of it when recession hit.

Shopping Mall - Many are developed by foreign and private developers with strong balance sheets. So even is it fails, the Far East, CDL, Capitaland's balance sheet is strong enough to tahan.

And unlike Dubai, every $1 you spend on glitzy project 70 cents already sapu backing into government coffers. For ION project, just imagine how much Gov sapu back in terms of land cost, stamp duty, GST, worker's levy, diesel tax, ERP, property tax, utilities. OK part of it developed by capitaland so from right hand to left hand. The other part by HK developer - money right into Gov pocket.

In Dubai, a lot of the costs of the grandoise projects go straight into foreigner's pockets. Why do you think ang mor so happy. As long as you can sell WOW factor the Emir will want. Problem is now they discover emir is the poor cousin of the Abu Dhabi emir.

Singapore may face excess capacity when all the mega projects are completed.

# mega gambling dens (aka integrated resorts)
# mega shopping malls (ION Orchard, Orchard Central, etc.)
# mega condo and landed projects (Sentosa, Keppel Bay, Marina)
# mega BFC (Business Financial Centre, offices, hotels, etc.)
# mega others

I can see the parallels: Bangkok 1997 that sets off the Asian Financial Crisis; Dubai 2009 that is happening now.

 

[phouse3]

You are correct about potential excess capacity. However big difference is that many of these are developed with private money.

Gambling - Sentosa dumped in billions, Sands also dumped in billions but agree that we probably backed some of it when recession hit.

Shopping Mall - Many are developed by foreign and private developers with strong balance sheets. So even is it fails, the Far East, CDL, Capitaland's balance sheet is strong enough to tahan.

And unlike Dubai, every $1 you spend on glitzy project 70 cents already sapu backing into government coffers. For ION project, just imagine how much Gov sapu back in terms of land cost, stamp duty, GST, worker's levy, diesel tax, ERP, property tax, utilities. OK part of it developed by capitaland so from right hand to left hand. The other part by HK developer - money right into Gov pocket.

In Dubai, a lot of the costs of the grandoise projects go straight into foreigner's pockets. Why do you think ang mor so happy. As long as you can sell WOW factor the Emir will want. Problem is now they discover emir is the poor cousin of the Abu Dhabi emir.

You still don't get it, do you?

A thinking person looks at events and draw lessons. If Sparta can collapse, so can Singapore. It is quite silly to argue on narrow semantics.

Moreover, all of your statements are highly inaccurate. There is no need to go on and on as I am totally unimpressed. In fact, I am a bit amused.

Note how I draw lessons between:
- Dubai and Singapore on "excess-capacity". (I listed the mega projects to show excess capacity, not to do an apple-to-apple comparison)
- ancient Sparta and modern Singapore on "city status". (It is obvious there are no entreports, currency speculation, cheap pension funds to compare.)
- Bangkok and Singapore on "high artificial growth". (Even though I was tacit on it.)

 

[Papsmearer]

I suspect that the reason for our high public debt is a matter of accounting.

The Gov borrows pretty much most of the $$$ from CPF and uses it to invest overseas. So that would create a high public debt. But one must take into account what GIC has? My suspicion is that GIC has more than enough to cover CPF liability a few times over.

No US also borrows from its CPF but for them they use the $$ to fund Gov expenditures, Iraq war etc etc.

Our GDP is US$180B so debt is 90+ percent of that. Our GIC portfolio is close to $350B. On top of that remember that Gov also has Temasek which probably holds another $130B in Gov assets. Temasek's funds are internally generated from all the GLC's income (PSA, SIA, Singtel). However, recently they have started borrowing but the amount is small as percentage of portfolio.

It might be a matter of accounting, but many things do not jive. Firstly, the S'pore govt. has for decades run an operating surplus. Therefore, why the need to borrow. Yes, all sovereign states do borrow and issue treasury instruments, and what not, but very few have such large surpluses over such a long period of time. The Govt. does not itself borrow money from CPF, and the govt. does not invest overseas. I don't know why U don't know this. The govt. sets up a private limited company like Temasek to do this.

The CPF liability has nothing to do with how many times GIC can cover it. Its irrelevant. You are calculating apples and oranges. The CPF is an insurance liability under the MOF. If there is a shortfall, the govt. will cover the diff, not the GIC. The GIC is another entity. The govt. can print more money to cover it if it has to, without selling or dipping into any of the GIC assets. Hence, there will never be a situation where the GIC is called upon to cover any potential CPF shortfall.

By the way, no one knows what the GIC portfolio is. U are only guessing its $350 billion. Most estimates is that its down 40%.

 

[Papsmearer]

" The borrowed money is used to buy blue chip investments. OK mistakes and poor decisions were made recently but in general GIC investments tend to be solid. To be fair world economy is facing extraordinary times. But on the whole GIC portfolio is a lot better than Dubai.

U are joking right? On what basis do you claim that GIC investments are solid? Do you even know what investments GIC owns? Citibank cost them $26 per share, now at around $3.50 a share. Hardly solid. UBS, another couple of billions in losses. GIC lost at least 25%, although some MPs admitted 43% recently. That is roughly down $100 billion. GIC is better off buying a Temasek Bond at 5.5%. Now that would be a "solid investment". By the way, GIC has also invested 11% of its assets in venture capital/private equity funds, hardly solid type sectors.