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Punggol Gold Cup - Notice to punters
- Thread starter scroobal
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given rivervale fiasco and mike dipping into oyster which is not his plus our other problems: high cost, fts, stress, corruption, racism, etc etc.
but given the oppos cannot pakat and choose one oppo candidate, the itch in my testicles says:
pap: 41%
WP: 30%
RP: 15%
SDA: 10%
4% spoiled voters cos they write sdp, bodoh thot csj got his act together.
but given the oppos cannot pakat and choose one oppo candidate, the itch in my testicles says:
pap: 41%
WP: 30%
RP: 15%
SDA: 10%
4% spoiled voters cos they write sdp, bodoh thot csj got his act together.
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preliminary round of coffee sessions does indicate that to me as well... let's see :p:p:p
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wp-49%
Pap -48%
rp-2%
sda-1%
Pap -48%
rp-2%
sda-1%
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Don't wanna guess PAP and WP but RP 0.001% SDA same
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The current 4CF in Punggol East allows testing of an interesting hypothesis.
There is generally widespread agreement that KJ and DL are likely to lose deposit. It is how few votes each candidate will pull that is of interest.
Conventional wisdom is that both candidates are likely to poll 3% to 5%.
I hold the minority view that the publicity generated by SDP has significantly raised the issue of split Opposition votes and how the PAP could steal the election. Because of this, I expect most voters who desire an alternative to vote for the strongest Opposition candidate which in this case is WP's LL. My expectation is that DL and KJ are likely to poll about 1,000 votes or around 3%. WP therefore need to convert only about 2,300 swing voters to win Punggol East.
If my hypothesis is correct, this will have far reaching consequences for GE 2016. After the success in the Presidential Elections, the PAP is expected to use the split vote strategy to retain seats in the face of fading popularity and weakening demographics. If Singapore voters demonstrate that that they are able to vote strategically after awareness is raised on the dangers of a split Opposition vote, then we have a powerful new weapon against the PAP's last hope to stay in power.
There is generally widespread agreement that KJ and DL are likely to lose deposit. It is how few votes each candidate will pull that is of interest.
Conventional wisdom is that both candidates are likely to poll 3% to 5%.
I hold the minority view that the publicity generated by SDP has significantly raised the issue of split Opposition votes and how the PAP could steal the election. Because of this, I expect most voters who desire an alternative to vote for the strongest Opposition candidate which in this case is WP's LL. My expectation is that DL and KJ are likely to poll about 1,000 votes or around 3%. WP therefore need to convert only about 2,300 swing voters to win Punggol East.
If my hypothesis is correct, this will have far reaching consequences for GE 2016. After the success in the Presidential Elections, the PAP is expected to use the split vote strategy to retain seats in the face of fading popularity and weakening demographics. If Singapore voters demonstrate that that they are able to vote strategically after awareness is raised on the dangers of a split Opposition vote, then we have a powerful new weapon against the PAP's last hope to stay in power.
Agreed. It will be like PE in reverse.
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After reveiwing what happeened over the weekend, the following is my projection
WP 51%
PAP 43%
RP 2%
SDA 1%
Spolit 3%
The loss of Punggol East will spark the realisation within the PAP they might actually lose in 2021. Thedemographics in Punggol East is reflective of the P65 generation that will the overwhelming majority by 2021.
WP 51%
PAP 43%
RP 2%
SDA 1%
Spolit 3%
The loss of Punggol East will spark the realisation within the PAP they might actually lose in 2021. Thedemographics in Punggol East is reflective of the P65 generation that will the overwhelming majority by 2021.
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There is a growing democracy in Singapore.
Your prediction(s) may be realizable.
However, at this stage, I believe that the PAP may lose a few more seats at the next general elections, but may not lose enough seats at GE 2021 not to form the government. Hopefully by 2026, there will be a tidal change.
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