Punggol Gold Cup - Notice to punters

[nanana1]

This is a very misunderstood by-election and the grounds have been smoked out and difficult to read. Unfortunately for many here, their hopes and aspirations for a WP win have been over-placed and also over-rated.

For me, it's clear that it is a one horse race and it points to a big PAP win that outdo GE2011 for Punggol East this Saturday although many will disagree at this time. Let's see what is the final outcome this Saturday !

 

[CPT (NS) BRANDON]

WP's chances rest in the hands of the hardcore opposition voters.

This group of people (probably 15% of them) are strongly anti-PAP and hate the PAP to the core.

Some of them will feel frustrated by WP's perceived meekness and unwillingness to confront or antagonise the PAP directly. They want to see Opposition MPs like JBJ. He fearlessly grilled the Prime Minister in Parliament even though he was outnumbered. These people may vote for the RP because they think the WP is too mild.

If they really want the PAP to lose this seat then they should all vote tactically for WP, but many won't.

This is why I think RP will garner 6-7% of the votes, and for the PAP's margin of victory over WP to be less than RP's share of the votes.

 

[enterprise2]

U mean hardcore Opp hates WP more than PAP???

 

[sleaguepunter]

going for longshot bet.

pap 45%
wp 48%
RP 6%
sda 1%

 

[wwabbit]

Most of the hardcore opposition members will know that as much as they may hate WP, they hate the PAP even more, and a vote for RP is wasted if they can instead vote for WP to increase the chance of kicking PAP out. So they will vote for WP anyway. There is no way RP+SDA together will get more than the 4.5% that SDA got from GE 2011, and it is likely to be lower, 2-3% probably nearer to 2%.

WP lost 2.8% of the votes in the Hougang BE, and PAP is going to at least lose that same amount too, so the highest they can get is 52%. It's going to be lower than that though for a lot of factors including the AIM issue, by-election effect, etc. The question now is whether they will lose enough such that WP can recover. If RP + SDA add up to 3%, then the winning score is 48.5%

 

[butoh6050]

My sotong was right!

 

[myfoot123]

WP: 60
PAP: 35%

Punggol East residents tolerance are reached. Don't play play. PAP treated them like cat, now is time to show who is the tiger.

Apparently my guess of WP win is close by 5%. Others predicted 45-47%...hehehe

 

[zhihau]

wp:52%
Pap:45%
rp:2%
sda:1%

bro,
you bery the bery the zhun for the top two position

 

[aurvandil]

The sweet feeling of being right !

The most valuable data tonight are the returns for the spolit vote and that received by KJ/DL.

The split vote strategy was PAP's last hope to cling to power. The PAP thinking was that throw a few hundred thousand dollars and the PAP will have a spolier that can secure victory. This election completely destroys this strategy.

 

[watchman8]

The split vote strategy was PAP's last hope to cling to power. The PAP thinking was that throw a few hundred thousand dollars and the PAP will have a spolier that can secure victory. This election completely destroys this strategy.

If the queen is still alive and old man still has the fire in belly, they will come up with some other strategy, like scraping GE, adding in a council of elders to pre approve election candidates like presidential election, or even another ops cold store to arrest WP key members on tramped up charges.

The current bunch of pap ministers don't have the gangster attitude of old man and wife, so unlikely they can find anymore effective solution to onslaught of WP come 2016.

 

[zhihau]

The sweet feeling of being right !
The most valuable data tonight are the returns for the spolit vote and that received by KJ/DL.

the 0.5% and 1% for DL and KJ respectively showed that the electorate had enough. the 1.5% of spoilt votes is quite normal, me think, kindly enlighten how it is significant

 

[aurvandil]

Up till now, we didn't have any reliable data on the effect of nuisance candidates. There was the thinking that such nuisance candidates could grab as much as 5% to 10% of the vote. This campaign shows that once awareness of the dangers of a split vote are raaised, it is possible to get more voters to vote tactically.

The spolit vote is significant because of the demographics of PE. Previously the PAP had sold the snake oil to the middle class that there was no credible alternative to them. The recent scandals have tarnished the PAP brand. If there is the perception that WP is not a viable alternative, there should be a relatively higher incidence of spolit votes. The fact the incidence was so low suggest that since the time IPS did their study, the WP branding has further strengthened.

I got the overall result of a WP majority correct. The PAP vote incidence was also accurate. WP was off because I had overestimated KJ/DL and the spolit vote. For refernce, this is what I called last Monday after the weekend rallies

WP 51
PAP 43
RP 2
SDA 1
Spolit 3

the 0.5% and 1% for DL and KJ respectively showed that the electorate had enough. the 1.5% of spoilt votes is quite normal, me think, kindly enlighten how it is significant

 

[QXD]

Looks like we should have had more faith in our Punggol East Brothers and Sisters!

The PAP brand received a drubbing this time. So much for the putting another high-flier, the younger generation of Singaporeans can't give 2 shits about the old PAP style of thinking they know better because the earn more or are more educated. Fuck you PAP, you deserve this black eye.

WELL DONE WP!

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

The sweet feeling of being right !

The most valuable data tonight are the returns for the spolit vote and that received by KJ/DL.

The split vote strategy was PAP's last hope to cling to power. The PAP thinking was that throw a few hundred thousand dollars and the PAP will have a spolier that can secure victory. This election completely destroys this strategy.

You were right, and you were spot on. WP has won with a convincing majority of 54%.

That was a great call.

 

[mojito]

I am shocked. Shocked! Oh well, it could have been worse.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Eh ... so who won the Gold Cup?

I think a couple of brudders here got is real close.

 

[Fook Seng]

bro,
you bery the bery the zhun for the top two position

Agreed. Percentages also. But could I be the first to give DL a low of 0.5%?

 

[wwabbit]

Wp 49.5%
pap 49.0%
rp 1.0%
sda 0.5%

Looks like I predicted the two dumbfucks really close, but lacked faith in the PE voters support for WP.

 

[Fook Seng]

WP: 50%
PAP: 45.5%
RP: 1%
SDA: 0.5%
Spoilt: 3%

I over-estimated PAP, otherwise I would be very close because I judged the support for the two jokers quite accurately.

 

[zhihau]

Agreed. Percentages also. But could I be the first to give DL a low of 0.5%?

yes, please