Liar = 145 Votes Strategy - A lesson in running a low profile campaign

[scroobal]

As I pointed our earlier, in April the PAP made the decision to focus on 2 main targets - retention of East Coast and the recapture of Aljunied. They had intentionally written off Hougang. This was borne out by the majority of the cabinet not participating or commenting "at all". More importantly the fixers and shakers amongsts the grassroots from other areas were not deployed in Hougang unlike in the past.

More importantly, the decision was made not to taint the expected PM designate Ng Eng Hen.

So the CEC left it to TCH and he decided that he will try and show his prowess and it backfired dramatically.

I could not help but come to conclusion that LTK is well aware of what is going in PAP inner circles. He nailed TCH to the flagpost. The comments about the abuse of MSM, govt resources, the return to the 80s etc are strong and significant allegations.

A gain of 145 votes after Yawgate is quite telling. This was not a by elections held to cover the death of a sitting MP. It was a by elections held to cover the sacking of a sitting MP by its own party. There are 2 significant issues with this - the comment by a translator suggesting that she did it to retain her job and the failure for an elected MP refusing to turn up for an inquiry for his own party which throws the notion of accountability to the dogs. Something which the WP uses in its campaigns against the PAP. In such an event, WP should have lost a lot of votes with all things being equal.

So why the gain of only 145 votes?

1. The conduct of PAP as a govt of the people continues to be an issue
2. Character assasination, smearing is no longer an acceptable campaign tool.

Both the above seemed to have overcomes whatever Yawgate had to offer to the PAP and GMS.

 

[oppoibchief]

PAP has to uproot and get rid of all these good for nothing members. First and foremost, all these RC DOGS on the ground who behaves badly and think that they are gods sent by PAP to knock your door so hard when they are distributing leaflets.

IF the PAP is serious about chnaging, CHANGE THESE DOGS. There are lots of them, EVEN IN NTUC leadership and down the ranks. THEY REALLY GIVE PAP A BAD NAME OVER YEARS.

 

[coolguy]

U forgot to mention one important point.

3. The transparency and accountability of the WP in response to queries, allegations and conduct issues
of it's own members.

The voters of today are different. They are not blind followers for nothing.
Nothing can be taken for granted.

Eh. PM designate NEH? Not TCH?
TCH kena pawned for nothing. lol.

 

[scroobal]

I agree. I wondered why NTUC made the press release on pay upgrade 2 days before the polls. NTUC, PA, SPH etc have been indentified with the PAP and not with Singapore as a country. They continue to be the prostitutes and whores of the ruling party. It has come to a stage where they are serious liability to the PAP.

Take SPH for example. It has been voted 154th by its own professional peers from around the world. The whole world cannot be wrong. It was also not one single year. It has been going on for years. Till today, I would meet SPH present and ex-journalist, editorial and management staff. Every single one of them claims that he is the exception and we laugh about it on the surface. Only Cheong and Peter have been honest about their place in the game.

Lets see what happens in the next 4 years. I am sure there is going to be radical makeover by the PAP. I have heard 2 different people that SPH is in line for a change but there is resistance from the family.

PAP has to uproot and get rid of all these good for nothing members. First and foremost, all these RC DOGS on the ground who behaves badly and think that they are gods sent by PAP to knock your door so hard when they are distributing leaflets.

IF the PAP is serious about chnaging, CHANGE THESE DOGS. There are lots of them, EVEN IN NTUC leadership and down the ranks. THEY REALLY GIVE PAP A BAD NAME OVER YEARS.

 

[elephanto]

For sincerity to be demonstrated, pap must have the security n courage to reform and slay sacred cows chief of which is GRASSROOTS ADVISOR MUST BE SITTING MP, AND PA BE PEOPLE'S not PA bastardiszed short form for PAP minus the Party.

desmond for all his low profile sincerity strategy shows deeds and words do not match.

Note since GE 2011, he, working under HQ advice, invite HDB to take over municipal common space authority so asnto create obstacles for WP activists in Hougang.

For all his professed desire to serve HG residents, will he in his capacity as grassroots advisor there assent to HG- Aljunied Town Council's neighbourhood renewal proposals and all the various national schemes,

Or will he continue to squirm and block and play spoiler?

FOR INCLUSIVE TO BE TRULY INCLUSIVE IT MUST BE TOTALLY INCLUSIVE NO IFS AND BUTS.

IF NON PAP VOTERS IN PAP WARDS ARE ALSO SERVED, THEN PAP VOTERS IN NON PAP WARDS MUST ALSO BE SERVED, RATHER THAN ONLY IF U VOTE PAP THEN I WONT PUT U LAST ....

WHATEVER POLITICAL AFFILIATION, ALL VOTERS ARE CITIZENS AND ARE ENTITLED - not be served only if they know which side of their bread is buttered.

Hardball is counter productive in this day and world.

 

[kingrant]

This BE will see TCH burying himself. LTK and WP have emerged stronger even tho the margin slipped 2% from Yaw's. Given the strong gains and exuding confidence, LTK had strong words for the media. It's been a long time now the press has been a political tool for the PAP. We are beginning to see LTK coming out openly to come down on the press and media. I believe he and all of us have been waiting for the chance to say it. His timing is perfect. He did what JBJ, FS, CSJ could not have done better, at the press conference after the BE. The international press is also watching. Really shrewd. I respect him for his craft.

PAP's source of power (Old Man) is on the wane, the PAP rot has started, a younger educated electorate, and an old boys' network who knew all the evil PAP's past who will help spread the venom and spill the beans on the dirty past, WP must hold steady at the helm to bear the flag for a First World parliament that the PAP has managed to deny Singaporeans for nearly 40 years.

In such a scenario, the rest of the Opposition parties can also emerge like WP if they put their act together. There's no better time. The sun is rising on them. make hay while the sun shines!

Huat ah!

 

[jixiaolan]

Let's not talk about whether PAP has run a good campaign. Only the result matters. I would like to remind you that you have predicted a 30% margin win for WP, that is 65 to 35 which is even slightly higher than what YSL had garnered in GE2011. Now you say PAP had run a bad campaign and that WP should have lost more votes due to YSL scandal (but earlier you also said it was a private matter between 2 consenting adults).

Alot of people in this forum including myself have hold you in high regard and value reading your posting. I am sure you did this out of mischief but pls do not do this again.

As I pointed our earlier, in April the PAP made the decision to focus on 2 main targets - retention of East Coast and the recapture of Aljunied. They had intentionally written off Hougang. This was borne out by the majority of the cabinet not participating or commenting "at all". More importantly the fixers and shakers amongsts the grassroots from other areas were not deployed in Hougang unlike in the past.

More importantly, the decision was made not to taint the expected PM designate Ng Eng Hen.

So the CEC left it to TCH and he decided that he will try and show his prowess and it backfired dramatically.

I could not help but come to conclusion that LTK is well aware of what is going in PAP inner circles. He nailed TCH to the flagpost. The comments about the abuse of MSM, govt resources, the return to the 80s etc are strong and significant allegations.

A gain of 145 votes after Yawgate is quite telling. This was not a by elections held to cover the death of a sitting MP. It was a by elections held to cover the sacking of a sitting MP by its own party. There are 2 significant issues with this - the comment by a translator suggesting that she did it to retain her job and the failure for an elected MP refusing to turn up for an inquiry for his own party which throws the notion of accountability to the dogs. Something which the WP uses in its campaigns against the PAP. In such an event, WP should have lost a lot of votes with all things being equal.

So why the gain of only 145 votes?

1. The conduct of PAP as a govt of the people continues to be an issue
2. Character assasination, smearing is no longer an acceptable campaign tool.

Both the above seemed to have overcomes whatever Yawgate had to offer to the PAP and GMS.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

LTK is not afraid to press all the buttons now because he knows he has built a solid base. WP speeches during the rally also touched on the system of politics itself -- people's association, grassroots, MSM, etc, and not just bread and butter issues like public transport. Pritam virtually did a Wijeysingha when he turned back the history pages during his first speech. That to me was a very positive sign. It shows they are spreading their wings and the people are ready to understand such issues.

Frankly speaking, I expected it to lower than my initial prediction of 62-35 for WP-PAP. It turned out to be 62-38 which was better than what I expected. All the usual PAP tactics have lost their effect on residents in HG. Even a philandering cockster could not put more than a 2% dent in the vote count in favour of WP. It shows HG residents are not political kids who are liable to get distracted easily by fleeting issues. Lets hope Aljunied and eventually east coast residents will also develop the same level of political maturity.

I could not help but come to conclusion that LTK is well aware of what is going in PAP inner circles. He nailed TCH to the flagpost. The comments about the abuse of MSM, govt resources, the return to the 80s etc are strong and significant allegations.

A gain of 145 votes after Yawgate is quite telling. This was not a by elections held to cover the death of a sitting MP. It was a by elections held to cover the sacking of a sitting MP by its own party. There are 2 significant issues with this - the comment by a translator suggesting that she did it to retain her job and the failure for an elected MP refusing to turn up for an inquiry for his own party which throws the notion of accountability to the dogs. Something which the WP uses in its campaigns against the PAP. In such an event, WP should have lost a lot of votes with all things being equal.

So why the gain of only 145 votes?

1. The conduct of PAP as a govt of the people continues to be an issue
2. Character assasination, smearing is no longer an acceptable campaign tool.

Both the above seemed to have overcomes whatever Yawgate had to offer to the PAP and GMS.

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

wat is most obvious n damning fm this by-elec is tat to quote alex au, "the pap has not changed"...not only TCH has big egg on his face, so too KBW n even LHL n HC to a certain extent as their presence was felt both physically n in spirit...oh yes not forgetting so called politico anlaysts like GMS, Eugene Tan, Zukilfi etc as these twats hv lots of egg on their faces as well...prolly suboos n those toady rotarians as well...

kudos to Low, SL, Png n co...stayed the course n came out trumps...just gotta luv Low's classic post election press conference performance...medals definitely went up a notch r two...great tweet on the telly as well when Low was asked abt Secret Squirrel he said maybe there wld a Secret Monkey next!!...

PAP headhonchos were fools...they sld hv taken a leaf out of Sitoh's book n left Desmond n his activists to themselves...prolly wld hv crossed the 40% threshold applying Sitoh's GE 11 PP strategy...

finally i salute the voters of Hougang...u guys hv done all singaporeans proud...

 

[QXD]

By NEH are we talking Ah Neh or Bargain Hen?

:p

U forgot to mention one important point.

3. The transparency and accountability of the WP in response to queries, allegations and conduct issues
of it's own members.

The voters of today are different. They are not blind followers for nothing.
Nothing can be taken for granted.

Eh. PM designate NEH? Not TCH?
TCH kena pawned for nothing. lol.

 

[TwitSeng]

2011 GE
YSL -- WP -- 14,850 -- 64.8%
DC -- PAP -- 8,065 -- 35.2%
Eligible voters -- 24,560
Turnout -- 23,176
Spoilt votes -- 261

2012 BE
PEH -- WP -- 13,447 -- 62.09% (decrease -- 1,403 -- 2.71%)
DC -- PAP -- 8,210 -- 37.91% (increase -- 145 -- 2.71%)
Eligible voters -- 23,368 (decrease -- 1,192 -- 4.854%)
Turnout -- 21,951 (decrease -- 1,225 -- 5.286%)
Spoilt votes -- 294 (increase -- 33 -- 12.64%)

 

[borom]

Of these 145 voters, how many were born in PRC, Malaysia, India, Philippines and Myanmar?

If most or all of these voters were NOT LOCAL born, there is in fact no drop in local votes at all.

Need to find out the proportion of foreign born voters as part of election strategy as most if not all of these foreign born(with fake qualificationns to boot ) will likely vote for the party that open doors to them at expense of locals.

 

[brocoli]

Let's not talk about whether PAP has run a good campaign. Only the result matters. I would like to remind you that you have predicted a 30% margin win for WP, that is 65 to 35 which is even slightly higher than what YSL had garnered in GE2011. Now you say PAP had run a bad campaign and that WP should have lost more votes due to YSL scandal (but earlier you also said it was a private matter between 2 consenting adults).

Alot of people in this forum including myself have hold you in high regard and value reading your posting. I am sure you did this out of mischief but pls do not do this again.

this guy has no credibility ... he is no different from GMS.....


during Yaw saga he flip more prata than anything .....

NEH will never be PM.. if they wan to make him PM... he will already be DPM now...

his style will not go well with sgporeans... he fuck thing up in education and he fuck things out when he organise last yr GE.... this guy will even fuck up a cup of KOpi....

mostly tharman will take over...

 

[murphy]

this guy has no credibility ... he is no different from GMS.....


during Yaw saga he flip more prata than anything .....



NEH will never be PM.. if they wan to make him PM... he will already be DPM now...

his style will not go well with sgporeans... he fuck thing up in education and he fuck things out when he organise last yr GE.... this guy will even fuck up a cup of KOpi....

mostly tharman will take over...

U are trash, but i have to agree with u here. the TS is trash.

 

[ahkow]

U are trash, but i have to agree with u here. the TS is trash.

NEH will never be able to make it as PM. After more than ten years in politics, I think he has low credibility and recognition. LHL is actually trying to protect him by putting him in defence instead if some trying portfolio. He is now as quiet as a church mouse in parliament.

TCH after this by election virtually have egg on his face and reputation severely dented.so far, it seems that only Tharman is left unscathed provided he does not make stupid statements again.

 

[kukubird58]

hahaha...why u peasants doubt my idol, the cockeral....
he has all the inside news...inner circle, inner cabinet, inside the bedroom news......
if he said NEH is PM designate.....it must be so.......lol.

 

[lockeliberal]

Dear Scroo

I started at 59 plus minis 0.5 and dropped my bet to 54 +- 0.5 midway as the attacks by TCH grew and when the PM started giving his 2 cents worth about a fresh start. TCH practically threw everything but the kitchen sink and the vote still held strong.

The amount of firepower poured into the fight, personal endorsements, showing face etc etc bore no resemblance to the actual importance for Hougang for the PAP and for the PM. I mean whether DC looses badly or well, if TCH or the PM had not made the BE such a serious issue , no one would have suffered either way. The Nos in parliament stay the same, etc etc, so what is the threat and why the expenditure of "intel" and "face".

a. A PAP victory or near victory, means a direct slap in the face for LTK and a reduction in the intensity in the challenge from the WP in the next round in key areas like Aljunied. A loss or near loss might aggravate the split in the party with more divisions appearing in public. What was interesting was the endorsements by both senior and non senior PAP individuals and there was a tendency for PAP figures facing a stronger WP threat taking a more active role in the campaign for HG. DC because of Moulmien Kallang, KBW facing WP next door, TCH as well, Lim Swee Say at high risk at East Coast.

b. LTK is teflon, bullet proof, nothing sticks, TCH is probably hitting his knees everynite hoping the hougang spirit does not spread to Aljunined, East Coast and Pasir Ris Punggol, that Hougang is special that Aljunied does not become special and that East Coast MP, Pasir Ris Punggol do not all start becoming a little special.

c. Whatever flaws there are in the methodology of Low, whatever criticisms may exists, it will be silenced because nothing succeeds like success.

d. With such a result the WP will be less inclined to give space to any other opposition party in the next round and rightly so.




Locke

As I pointed our earlier, in April the PAP made the decision to focus on 2 main targets - retention of East Coast and the recapture of Aljunied. They had intentionally written off Hougang. This was borne out by the majority of the cabinet not participating or commenting "at all". More importantly the fixers and shakers amongsts the grassroots from other areas were not deployed in Hougang unlike in the past.

More importantly, the decision was made not to taint the expected PM designate Ng Eng Hen.

So the CEC left it to TCH and he decided that he will try and show his prowess and it backfired dramatically.

I could not help but come to conclusion that LTK is well aware of what is going in PAP inner circles. He nailed TCH to the flagpost. The comments about the abuse of MSM, govt resources, the return to the 80s etc are strong and significant allegations.

A gain of 145 votes after Yawgate is quite telling. This was not a by elections held to cover the death of a sitting MP. It was a by elections held to cover the sacking of a sitting MP by its own party. There are 2 significant issues with this - the comment by a translator suggesting that she did it to retain her job and the failure for an elected MP refusing to turn up for an inquiry for his own party which throws the notion of accountability to the dogs. Something which the WP uses in its campaigns against the PAP. In such an event, WP should have lost a lot of votes with all things being equal.

So why the gain of only 145 votes?

1. The conduct of PAP as a govt of the people continues to be an issue
2. Character assasination, smearing is no longer an acceptable campaign tool.

Both the above seemed to have overcomes whatever Yawgate had to offer to the PAP and GMS.

 

[insignia]

All the other opposition parties are just a waste of time. There is no need for WP or Low to 'give face' to them. They are not credible, poorly organised and poorly marketed, and therefore have no chance of winning. Why should you give way to someone who has zero chance of winning?

At the end of the day, Singapore only needs 3 political parties to represent the entire spectrum of sentiments:

PAP - for conservatives, those who want to keep the status quo, and those who want "stability"
WP - for reform-minded centrists, those who want "stability" but are upset with the current state of affairs and want more fairness in society and in politics
SDP - for liberals, radicals and human rights activists, those who believe that the system is totally rotten and who want plural democracy

All other parties are superfluous - NSP is just a copycat of WP and RP is just a copycat of SDP. As for SPP, they are a party that purely focuses on Potong Pasir municipal affairs, and they will become completely irrelevant once Potong Pasir is drawn into a GRC.

 

[nato33]

Did PAP redraw any boundaries for Hougang? Surprised that the number of eligible voters dropped by 1192 in just 1 year.

2011 GE
Eligible voters -- 24,560
Turnout -- 23,176

2012 BE
Eligible voters -- 23,368 (decrease -- 1,192 -- 4.854%)
Turnout -- 21,951 (decrease -- 1,225 -- 5.286%)

 

[scroobal]

Bro, don't take this wrongly and it is also not out of mischief.

Both PP and Hougang elections are not localised events. Once they crossed the threshold and become opposition wards, the residents take on the role of custodians of the country for the sake of holding the PAP on the straight and narrow. How else would one explain their attitude of giving up upgrades for 2 decades.

I predicted 30% which is less than one percentage point increase from the elections. In essence I took it as a national referendum. I felt than as I feel now that PAP has not shifted it atitude one iota from their past. So no shift.

The point I am making is that if the PAP was on par with WP on sentiments, Yawgate would have seen a massive swing. The translators comment to the Chinese press was not of that of consenting adults. As somone closer than most to WP, you would have realised that this was indeed the straw that broke the camel's back. WP leadersh acted swiftly. I am absolutely certain that if Yaw had been screwing 10 more, it would still not be an issue. Just as the PAP stables have seen adultery many times including a a near open gay affair involving a cabinet minister. You do realise that many MNCs dismiss seniors for having affairs with their direct subordinate even if they did not make comments like the translator did. SAF did that with a Colonel about 2 years ago. I have no idea if translator was telling the truth or embelished it to avoid a trashing from her husband.

In essence, my point is that PAP image is worse than what occurred with Yaw. I thus gave a 30 % margin, 0.4% shift upwards from the previous margin of 29.6%. Thus no shift from the past.

Let's not talk about whether PAP has run a good campaign. Only the result matters. I would like to remind you that you have predicted a 30% margin win for WP, that is 65 to 35 which is even slightly higher than what YSL had garnered in GE2011. Now you say PAP had run a bad campaign and that WP should have lost more votes due to YSL scandal (but earlier you also said it was a private matter between 2 consenting adults).

Alot of people in this forum including myself have hold you in high regard and value reading your posting. I am sure you did this out of mischief but pls do not do this again.