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I believe the recession is already happening in Singapore
- Thread starter lifeafter41
- Start date
Asia will not be as hard hit as Europe and USA. asian banks are relatively unscathed from the credit issues.
it is a world turning event as credit will now flow from west to east. the east is triumphant once more and the sun arises in the east...
it is a world turning event as credit will now flow from west to east. the east is triumphant once more and the sun arises in the east...
Firstly, note the difference between the finance sector and the real sector. It is inevitable that the finance sector will affect the real sector.
Secondly, some finance sectors in some Asian countries will be affected more than others.
Thirdly, some real sectors in some Asian countries will be affected more than others. Take Singapore for example.
- It is a small open economy reliant on exports, tourism, FDIs and individual wealth funds.
- It has no large domestic market.
- It doesn't produce its own food.
- It has reserves invested in the most affected countries/currencies.
- Its equity market is dominated by hedge funds, foreign funds, futures, warrants, etc.
- The people's wealth are locked in properties.
- Their retirement savings are locked away and invested in high risk assets.
Isn't it true Singapore is the first country to experience a technical recession (not verified)?
Secondly, some finance sectors in some Asian countries will be affected more than others.
Thirdly, some real sectors in some Asian countries will be affected more than others. Take Singapore for example.
- It is a small open economy reliant on exports, tourism, FDIs and individual wealth funds.
- It has no large domestic market.
- It doesn't produce its own food.
- It has reserves invested in the most affected countries/currencies.
- Its equity market is dominated by hedge funds, foreign funds, futures, warrants, etc.
- The people's wealth are locked in properties.
- Their retirement savings are locked away and invested in high risk assets.
Isn't it true Singapore is the first country to experience a technical recession (not verified)?
If I were you, I would rather take business advice from experts in BusinessWeek than from the local Business and Straits Times. ST and BT and the SPH business section in all languages are unreliable as they are politicised newspapers entirely.
Reading them will only increase ignorance and stupidity. So its better to stick to worldwide publications like Business Week and FORTUNE for business/financial news. That's how I got the feeling since 2007 that Singapore would be in deep trouble after the first bubble burst in New York back then.
Oh yeah, something from Thomas Friedman, NY Times columnist about greed and lust in the financial markets in general..
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/opinion/12friedman.html?em
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
October 12, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
The Post-Binge World
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
My friend Rob Watson, the head of EcoTech International, has a saying about Mother Nature that goes like this: “Mother Nature is just chemistry, biology and physics. That’s all she is.” And because of that, says Rob, you cannot spin Mother Nature. You cannot bribe Mother Nature. You cannot sweet talk her, and you cannot ignore her. She’s going to do with the climate whatever chemistry, biology and physics dictate. And Mother Nature always bats last, and she always bats a thousand.
There is a parallel with markets. At their core, markets are propelled by fear and greed. They’re just the balance at any given moment of those two impulses. Over the long run, you cannot spin the market. You cannot sweet talk it into going up or beg it not to go down. It’s going to do whatever it’s going to do — whichever way greed and fear tug it. And the market always bats last and it always bats a thousand.
What am I saying? We are where we are today because we went on a credit binge and we’re now paying the price. Because it was the biggest credit binge the world has ever been on, a lot of wealth is going to be wiped out. Now what you’re witnessing is the market re-evaluating and re-pricing every asset in the world, without mercy, telling each stock, bond and bank what its value is in a post-credit binge world.
So why, despite the Congressional bailout, haven’t banks started lending again?
You have to go back to the beginning of the problem. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, virtually every economy in the world moved to a capitalist system, which eventually made the world awash with money looking for investments. It didn’t take long for financial engineers to figure out how to move home mortgages and commercial loans from a transaction between you and your local bank — or between your company and a syndicate of banks — to something much more diffused and fragmented. While your bank may have initiated the mortgage or the corporate loan, it was quickly sold to an aggregator who turned these different loans into bonds and then sold them all over the world in small pieces to banks and money market and pension funds.
The good news about this democratization of finance is that it powered enormous growth around the world. More people than ever grew out of poverty faster — or got rich faster. But the process became so lucrative that people — imbeciles — who should not have been selling these things got into the food chain of selling them. Banks and insurance companies that should not have even nibbled on them, gorged on them. And companies that should not have been dependent on raising capital through them became dependent.
So when some of these loans inevitably turned bad, the whole financial system got infected. Eventually everyone stopped lending to everyone else because no one knew what the other bank’s assets were worth. Indeed, if all the banks were really honest about the value of these toxic assets on their balance sheets, many of them would be under water.
The whole story of the last few months has been about different government plans to get the banks lending again. But the market is not waiting. It just keeps saying to the big banks and insurance companies: “We think you’re carrying a lot of junk on your books, and if you don’t mark it all the way down and re-price it to what it is really worth today, we will re-price you — fairly or not.” The market is going to do what it is going to do.
So what could ease this crisis? “There is going to have to be a workout,” said the financial strategist David Smick, author of “The World Is Curved,” a book about the hidden dangers in today’s global economy. “There will have to be a restructuring of all these institutions to clean up their balance sheets and recapitalize them.” Banks and insurance companies will have to be reconstituted, merged or left to die, until these toxic assets are properly priced and off the books.
The government’s job — which it is still trying to figure out exactly how to do — will be to provide a safety net of guarantees for the surviving banks, so they will be honest about pricing their assets, and then, once they have been, to help recapitalize them. “Government’s other job,” added Smick, “is to quickly establish the new rules of the road for truth-in-lending on a global basis. We still need these kind of lending facilities if the economy is going to grow again.”
This workout promises to be painful, complicated and protracted. Government will have to do its part. But it must regulate the excesses without smothering the underlying innovative, entrepreneurial and risk-taking attributes of our economy, which are what will ultimately bail us out — as they always have.
“I have no idea what the stock market is going to do next month or six months from now,” Warren Buffett told CNBC on Friday. “I do know that the American economy, over a period of time, will do very well, and people who own a piece of it will do well.”
--Copyright owned by New York Times newspaper--
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/opinion/12friedman.html?em
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
October 12, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
The Post-Binge World
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
My friend Rob Watson, the head of EcoTech International, has a saying about Mother Nature that goes like this: “Mother Nature is just chemistry, biology and physics. That’s all she is.” And because of that, says Rob, you cannot spin Mother Nature. You cannot bribe Mother Nature. You cannot sweet talk her, and you cannot ignore her. She’s going to do with the climate whatever chemistry, biology and physics dictate. And Mother Nature always bats last, and she always bats a thousand.
There is a parallel with markets. At their core, markets are propelled by fear and greed. They’re just the balance at any given moment of those two impulses. Over the long run, you cannot spin the market. You cannot sweet talk it into going up or beg it not to go down. It’s going to do whatever it’s going to do — whichever way greed and fear tug it. And the market always bats last and it always bats a thousand.
What am I saying? We are where we are today because we went on a credit binge and we’re now paying the price. Because it was the biggest credit binge the world has ever been on, a lot of wealth is going to be wiped out. Now what you’re witnessing is the market re-evaluating and re-pricing every asset in the world, without mercy, telling each stock, bond and bank what its value is in a post-credit binge world.
So why, despite the Congressional bailout, haven’t banks started lending again?
You have to go back to the beginning of the problem. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, virtually every economy in the world moved to a capitalist system, which eventually made the world awash with money looking for investments. It didn’t take long for financial engineers to figure out how to move home mortgages and commercial loans from a transaction between you and your local bank — or between your company and a syndicate of banks — to something much more diffused and fragmented. While your bank may have initiated the mortgage or the corporate loan, it was quickly sold to an aggregator who turned these different loans into bonds and then sold them all over the world in small pieces to banks and money market and pension funds.
The good news about this democratization of finance is that it powered enormous growth around the world. More people than ever grew out of poverty faster — or got rich faster. But the process became so lucrative that people — imbeciles — who should not have been selling these things got into the food chain of selling them. Banks and insurance companies that should not have even nibbled on them, gorged on them. And companies that should not have been dependent on raising capital through them became dependent.
So when some of these loans inevitably turned bad, the whole financial system got infected. Eventually everyone stopped lending to everyone else because no one knew what the other bank’s assets were worth. Indeed, if all the banks were really honest about the value of these toxic assets on their balance sheets, many of them would be under water.
The whole story of the last few months has been about different government plans to get the banks lending again. But the market is not waiting. It just keeps saying to the big banks and insurance companies: “We think you’re carrying a lot of junk on your books, and if you don’t mark it all the way down and re-price it to what it is really worth today, we will re-price you — fairly or not.” The market is going to do what it is going to do.
So what could ease this crisis? “There is going to have to be a workout,” said the financial strategist David Smick, author of “The World Is Curved,” a book about the hidden dangers in today’s global economy. “There will have to be a restructuring of all these institutions to clean up their balance sheets and recapitalize them.” Banks and insurance companies will have to be reconstituted, merged or left to die, until these toxic assets are properly priced and off the books.
The government’s job — which it is still trying to figure out exactly how to do — will be to provide a safety net of guarantees for the surviving banks, so they will be honest about pricing their assets, and then, once they have been, to help recapitalize them. “Government’s other job,” added Smick, “is to quickly establish the new rules of the road for truth-in-lending on a global basis. We still need these kind of lending facilities if the economy is going to grow again.”
This workout promises to be painful, complicated and protracted. Government will have to do its part. But it must regulate the excesses without smothering the underlying innovative, entrepreneurial and risk-taking attributes of our economy, which are what will ultimately bail us out — as they always have.
“I have no idea what the stock market is going to do next month or six months from now,” Warren Buffett told CNBC on Friday. “I do know that the American economy, over a period of time, will do very well, and people who own a piece of it will do well.”
--Copyright owned by New York Times newspaper--
As the slow down hits the broader economy of Singapore. Retailers will be hit and there goes the REITs.
Isn't the Singapore REIT owned by Temasek? I'm pretty sure it does..I read it somewhere online that Temasek does own the local REIT.
What difference does it make?Peasants are fucked no matter which way the economy goes.
That's why the peasants would prefer recession. All suffer together. So silly, this cuntry. Uncohesive, stupid, sheeps. When it comes to voting, you will see all the sheeps cohesively doing the stupid thing.
Anyway, don't have to fucking talk alredy. Just shut the fuck up and enjoy! The last elections, you all murdered whats left of the opposition.
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