I believe the recession is already happening in Singapore

[lifeafter41]

In singapore, the development of these condos would not stop. If you go other countries, the development of condos will stall as developers go bankrupt.

During the 1997 economic downturn, the big boys continued to hold on to those units that are not sold. They didn't even considered putting the price down to sell them off. They could have done that to make money than to leave it empty. Instead they lease them out or prefer to keep them when there is demand or when the price moves up. You don't believe? Far East tried selling me units empty since 97, at the year 07. 10 years and they kept it empty. The price was not even low when they tried selling me. Don't even try of making them a low offer, they wouldn't even consider. This kind of trick go overseas, the developer salivate liao:o

I have a bad feeling that things are going to be very different this time round.

 

[SIFU]

LHL : lets fight recession.. 1st we start by raising PUB bill 20%.. hee..hee..

 

[silverspoon]

I mentioned in the old forum that a world recession would pan out after the Beijing Olympics and US Presidential Election.

I didn't see the huge impact of the sub-prime problem and the recession to come so soon. I thought a recession would be triggered by empty hotel rooms and contruction tail-offs in China and the deficits in US.

Well, at least I was right in predicting that low-end HDB flats price rise would continue despite the sub-prime problem (because of influx of new migrants). Indeed both events have taken place.

Nonetheless, I think the world is on track for a recession. The China slowdown and US deficits are still as relevant. Singapore's GDP growth will likely decline by double digits in many quarters to come (year on year). GDP numbers driven by petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals work both ways. They can cause GDP growth to swell by double digits; they can also cause GDP growth to plunge by double digits.

A recession is extremely healthy and a welcomed break for the peasants living on fixed income or on savings. They will actually see their real income/savings increase due to the cessation of inflation. There is also a lesser likelihood of another GST hike.

The people who will suffer are those basking in the current golden period. They may turn brown getting their fingers burnt.

I welcome a prolong recession for personal reasons. I think Singapore will be less crowded and expensive.

True bro....this time round...i some how more ready for this recession...infact i am actually looking forward to it....not sure why....some how i feel that this recession is needed for this country

 

[lifeafter41]

True bro....this time round...i some how more ready for this recession...infact i am actually looking forward to it....not sure why....some how i feel that this recession is needed for this country

I share the same sentiments as you do.

 

[pia]

True bro....this time round...i some how more ready for this recession...infact i am actually looking forward to it....not sure why....some how i feel that this recession is needed for this country

True true.. in spite of the sufferings, somehow I feel a recession comes around once in a while to eradicate out-of-control greed and other vices akin the biblical Sodom and Gomorrah.:(

 

[newyorker88]

Recession will happen worldwide. But how much will the impact affect each and every country. There are many countries going to be heavily impact more than Singapore.

Malaysia, Thailand, USA

Malaysia and Thailand, both have unstable governments and it will take a while before they structure the economy. Meanwhile they have a lot of inner fighting among them. So by the time they fight finish, which don't know when, they would absorb a lot of impact as they spend their time fighting instead of thinking of solutions.

USA is just another arse where they are busy topping up their pitholes with sand. All the problems are created by them. Oil issues, subprime are all just idiotic issues they created

I beg to differ, countries like Malaysia, thailand and Indonesia have resources and the population to sustain themselves in a GLOBAL meltdown. Their internal eonomy can make things around.

Singapore is dependent on global market, and with a PURE singkee populaton of 2.6 million? and the rest being PRs, FTs, and not local born, I dare to say that singapore will be much worst off than the rest. Except for the rich.

 

[newyorker88]

True true.. in spite of the sufferings, somehow I feel a recession comes around once in a while to eradicate out-of-control greed and other vices akin the biblical Sodom and Gomorrah.

Not much will change, PAP and scums will still rise GST and ERP. Cut in minister's pay? Only to be increased verry soon, after the "storm is over" fromt their defination.

A recession and boom time is part of cycle in life and business. You cant go against the tide.

 

[tonychat]

LHL : lets fight recession.. 1st we start by raising PUB bill 20%.. hee..hee..

Good for you. You got to pay more, that is the life of a sinkie. Enjoy while you last.

 

[phouse3]

Singapore will be the hardest hit among all Asian countries. The economy will collapse due to:

* ridiculous over-construction in businesss and financial district, integrated resorts, shopping centres, offices, transport infrastructure, factories, housing, etc.
* bursting of over-inflated property values caused by over-speculation
* stale overseas investments at a fraction of its invested value (our external wing is bigger than those of Pterosaurs)
* an export market that is going to crash like a ton of rocks
* an over-churned financial market due to the conscientious nurturing of hedge funds, foreign funds, covered warrants, index futures, etc.
* reverse outflow of hot funds procured from overseas under the aegis of private banking

 

[newyorker88]

Singapore will be the hardest hit among all Asian countries. The economy will collapse due to:

* ridiculous over-construction in businesss and financial district, integrated resorts, shopping centres, offices, transport infrastructure, factories, housing, etc.
* bursting of over-inflated property values caused by over-speculation
* stale overseas investments at a fraction of its invested value (our external wing is bigger than those of Pterosaurs)
* an export market that is going to crash like a ton of rocks
* an over-churned financial market due to the conscientious nurturing of hedge funds, foreign funds, covered warrants, index futures, etc.
* reverse outflow of hot funds procured from overseas under the aegis of private banking

You forgot to add on BURDEN OF GST AND ERP and other misc against local people.

 

[The_Latest_H]

You forgot to add on BURDEN OF GST AND ERP and other misc against local people.

Pretty much sums it up in regards to Singapore. I have put up warnings since last year warning of an inevitable recession in the old forum- because the signs are there.

And at that time, I didn't want to believe in LKY or LHL's words either. I just knew they are bluffing and bluffing badly. If anything, if you had read Businessweek, Fortune and Harvard Business Review through 2007, you would have realised that analysts in those publications had said that a recession, or at least a slowdown was imminent.

So I didn't need to read what LKY was stating. I knew both were lying through their teeth.

 

[newyorker88]

Pretty much sums it up in regards to Singapore. I have put up warnings since last year warning of an inevitable recession in the old forum- because the signs are there.



So I didn't need to read what LKY was stating. I knew both were lying through their teeth.

I agree, since end of last year, business are slowing and signs of property bubble took place. My clinet orders for factory goods slowed down, and talks were in the air about how long the shit is going to last, especially the oil prices. anyone with some brains will know that high oil prices will lead to slower growth and the economy is definately affected.

Commodities prices are sky rocketing and my friends doing them are saying that the demand is not there. In short, simply, people are speculating.

Metal prices are at all time high and we know that the Olympic effect worn off early this yearr, when construction demand for that event stops.

I do not need some economist nor politicans to tell me how good the economy is. All I need is some statistics from the market and the prices my buyers offer. That is good enough for me to guage.

Although I may not be in all types business to know the economy, business talks and market sentiments will paint the picture for you.

In Singapore where property prices and demand do not match, singkees are getting a rotten deal. 97 is a good example when PRs and FTs( hong Kees) leave, the market will correct itself, and the correction will be more painful this round, if the posting by makapa is correct.

 

[lifeafter41]

I agree, since end of last year, business are slowing and signs of property bubble took place. My clinet orders for factory goods slowed down, and talks were in the air about how long the shit is going to last, especially the oil prices. anyone with some brains will know that high oil prices will lead to slower growth and the economy is definately affected.

Commodities prices are sky rocketing and my friends doing them are saying that the demand is not there. In short, simply, people are speculating.

Metal prices are at all time high and we know that the Olympic effect worn off early this yearr, when construction demand for that event stops.

I do not need some economist nor politicans to tell me how good the economy is. All I need is some statistics from the market and the prices my buyers offer. That is good enough for me to guage.

Although I may not be in all types business to know the economy, business talks and market sentiments will paint the picture for you.

In Singapore where property prices and demand do not match, singkees are getting a rotten deal. 97 is a good example when PRs and FTs( hong Kees) leave, the market will correct itself, and the correction will be more painful this round, if the posting by makapa is correct.

But I still see in the Straits Times property section, the prices are holding pretty well though there is a lot of so call claimed "fire sale" advert.

 

[toolanliao]

Good for you. You got to pay more, that is the life of a sinkie. Enjoy while you last.

yaaawwwnnn... get over it, will you?

 

[The_Latest_H]

But I still see in the Straits Times property section, the prices are holding pretty well though there is a lot of so call claimed "fire sale" advert.

You forgot that it was printed by SPH's ST. So its not the right reflection on the ground itself. Certainly local property prices cannot stay the same levels, when everywhere else is still dismal.

And if the banks get into trouble from giving away too many loans to young couples who cannot pay, then they are in deep trouble. Very deep trouble. Already there are many reports even on ST that is saying that local banks have overexposure to potential bad debts.

 

[bushtucker]

We can now start laughing at those couples who feature their pigeon holes on Sunday Times, valuating their own unit at $650k when they only paid $400+K for the unit and $50+K for renovations.

 

[phouse3]

In the near future, REITs will be the next "mini-bombs".

As a student long ago, I learned that REITs are risky instruments because in a downturn, the underlying assets (buildings) will fall in value and rental streams shrink. Perhaps I have been reading rubbish because I keep hearing the experts preach REITs are safe and you can achieve high returns in a low interest environment. Financial journalists from the 154th ranked have been saying the same thing.

 

[chinkangkor]

Financial journalists from the 154th ranked have been saying the same thing.

They are trying hard to make it look like S'pore is in the golden period.

 

[lifeafter41]

In the near future, REITs will be the next "mini-bombs".

As a student long ago, I learned that REITs are risky instruments because in a downturn, the underlying assets (buildings) will fall in value and rental streams shrink. Perhaps I have been reading rubbish because I keep hearing the experts preach REITs are safe and you can achieve high returns in a low interest environment. Financial journalists from the 154th ranked have been saying the same thing.

REITs are just another avenue to squeeze money from the tenants and inadvertently the consumers.

Think of the high rentals charged by those mall trust, food court fare has become very expensive. Usually at 2.50 to 3.00 the food court will charge 4.00 to 5 dollars. Just imagine how much goes to paying the rentals.

 

[phouse3]

Finally, one financial journalist started to sing the blues. Hedge fund may be the next to fall.

I have been reading with great amusement over the last few years that Singapore aspires to be a hedge fund hub and fund management hub (in addition to wondrous aspirations like furniture design hub). Very often we read that the trading volume of covered warrants are higher than stocks.

The property market has been manipulated. The government wanted to sell land at good prices, the property developers wanted to bring up the value of their land bank and housing stocks (unsold or to be sold units), the banks wanted to lend their excess funds and the wealthy brought from the region through private banking wanted to churn the market.

(URA has unloaded $8 billion worth of land for the year ended 31 March 2008 on the back of integrated resort hype.)

Construction excesses will show (white elepants will appear).

Electronics exports will fall after the infamous duo Ps (pills and plastics).

GIC's and Temasek's investment portfolio will shrink through capital losses (though partly offset by more investments).

Each of the 6 factors that I think will cause Singapore's economic downfall points in one direction - leveraging of Singapore's future. Of course, we know the reverse story of leveraging. The higher you climb, the harder you fall.