HSR and RTS Discussion

[FHBH12]

Korean consortium among parties interested in HSR

TODAY reports: A consortium of 50 public and private South Korean firms have expressed interest to join a market-sensing exercise for the Kuala Lumpur- Singapore high-speed rail project.

By Amanda Lee, TODAY
POSTED: 17 Oct 2015 00:24

SINGAPORE: A Korean mega-consortium comprising 50 public and private enterprises are among the parties that have registered their interest to participate in the joint market-sensing exercise for the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) project.

Responding to TODAY’s queries, a spokesperson from South Korea’s Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) said the Korea Rail Network Authority (KR) has applied to take part in the Request for Information (RFI) exercise, on behalf of the Korean consortium.

Parties were encouraged to register their interest by Friday (Oct 16). TODAY reported that as of noon on Thursday, about 70 parties, based in Singapore, Malaysia and overseas, had already done so. Those found to be eligible will then submit their responses to the RFI documents by 12pm on Nov 18.

The Korean consortium consists of seven big construction companies as construction investors, five railway system suppliers, 29 railway design engineers and two financial institutions as financial investors.

Some of the public enterprises in the consortium include KR, Korail, Korea Land and Housing Corporation, Korea Railroad Research Institute and Korea Transport Institute. There are also plans to include more companies in the consortium “as soon as possible”.

Commenting on its HSR, the spokesperson said South Korea has developed the world’s fourth-fastest high-speed train and launched the Honam Korea Train Express (KTX) in April this year through its own technology. “Furthermore, not a single casualty has been caused by rail accidents during the 11-year history of Korea’s HSR,” said the spokesperson.

The RFI exercise was launched by Malaysia’s Land Public Transport Commission and LTA to gauge market sentiment on the project as well as gather industry opinions on its commercial and technical aspects. When contacted on Friday for an update, the LTA said it would give one at a later date.

The HSR link aims to cut the travel time between the two cities to 90 minutes, with terminus stations in Kuala Lumpur’s Bandar Malaysia and in Singapore’s Jurong East.

The spokesperson from MOLIT said the length of the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore HSR is “very similar” to Korea’s first HSR, the Gyeongbu HSR, which travels from Seoul to Busan.

“In this regard, I believe that the Korean consortium can provide the most efficient and optimal business model for the Malaysia-Singapore HSR project,” added the spokesperson.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/korean-consortium-among/2198378.html

 

[jasonjst]

This is a "market sensing exercise" and is basically part of the feasibility study to study the sustainability of the proposed system.
Building the system is a one off affair which may involved hundreds of millions but its the sustainability that the LTA needs to know.
I had mentioned earlier on the Taiwan HSR which ran on losses for years despite the feasibilities studies suggested otherwise so our Mr Khaw needed a double confirm to proceed.

No need feasibility study , confirm loss making one .

 

[freekazoid]

No need feasibility study , confirm loss making one .

prophet jasonjst has spoken!

 

[Tekkun]

prophet jasonjst has spoken!

This is actually why HSR is being explored.

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/t...-kunming-by-high-speed-rail-in-10-hours-video

 

[jasonjst]

prophet jasonjst has spoken!

I no prophet lah , can get their world best known Bomoh to make the feasibility study also.

 

[Manhattan]

Loss or profit, we have to move forward. Sitting there worrying about making loss is not our style. The only way for sg to prosper for another 50 yrs is to pull the entire peninsula along.

 

[Tekkun]

This is actually why HSR is being explored.

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/t...-kunming-by-high-speed-rail-in-10-hours-video

China has got the Thailand rail line and now got the Indonesian HSR. They will win the last leg of Singapore Malaysia HSR even if it means that they have to buy it.

 

[FHBH12]

'Shinkansen' operation a flop in Taiwan

November 5, 2015 7:00 pm JST

Japan and China have been fiercely vying to win contracts for high-speed rail projects in Asian countries.

For years, Taiwan has been operating a high-speed train service based on Japan's bullet train system. It is Japan's first shinkansen export. But saddled with huge losses, the Taiwanese high-speed rail operator has recently decided to accept a government bailout in hopes of turning its troubled business around.

Yet, the railway's financial health is increasingly uncertain.

Taiwan High Speed Rail has been in service since 2007, connecting the island's northern city of Taipei with the southern city of Kaohsiung in as little as an hour and a half.

A consortium of seven Japanese companies, including trading house Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, worked together to deliver the system to Taiwan.

The rolling stock is based on N700 series used in Tokaido and Sanyo shinkansen.

Taiwan High Speed Rail prides itself on its smooth service and a comfortable ride experience. Yet it has been in deep financial trouble.

A Taiwanese general contractor and other businesses formed a consortium and later incorporated as THSR to build and operate the railway for 35 years. After that, the company is to concede operations to Taiwan authorities under a build-operate-transfer scheme.

The venture has shouldered total costs of 480 billion New Taiwan dollars ($14.6 billion), half of which covers civil engineering expenses. Depreciation and interest payments have been weighing heavily on the company. "Observers have noted that it would be difficult to turn a profit anytime soon, whoever undertook the project," said a Japanese company representative familiar with the matter.

What's worse, poor passenger traffic estimates have damaged the company's balance sheet. Based on a consultancy's survey results and other data, the company expected 240,000 passengers a day in 2008. In 2014, daily passenger traffic came to just over 130,000, far below the initial estimate.

With bleak prospects for a turnaround, THSR has turned to the government for a bailout. The company reduced its capital by 60% at the end of October and has set out to eliminate cumulative losses worth as much as NT$47.2 billion as of the end of June. A government-affiliated investment fund and other businesses will inject NT$30 billion into the company at the end of this year. The move will boost the government's stake to about 64% from about 37% currently.

In September, THSR's financial restructuring plan was approved at an extraordinary shareholders meeting. "This will help solidify the foundations of our long-lasting management," THSR Chairman Liu Wei-chi said at the meeting. Some investors, angry that the capital reduction will cause them losses, tried to shout him down.

The company in December will likely have to cut fares by nearly 10% in exchange for the financial bailout. "In the future, THSR will need to get approval from the Yuan, Taiwan's legislature, when it wants to raise fares," said professor Chang Sheng-hsiung of Tamkang University. "That will make it more difficult to put the company's troubled finances back in order."

Some observers point out that the railway has been politicized from the start. When the Kuomintang, the current ruling party, was in opposition from 2000 to 2008, it clashed with the then ruling Democratic Progressive Party over a proposed THSR management improvement plan.

Analysts predict that the DPP will likely replace the Kuomintang in a presidential election slated for January. When that happens, THSR's management could face still more uncertainty.

(Nikkei)

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Shinkansen-operation-a-flop-in-Taiwan

 

[cow138]

China has the financial muscle to pull it off.
Malaysia don't have much bargaining leverage.
They'll agree to terms if China is willing to provide financial assistance. This will be a lifeline that the govt desperately needs.

 

[freekazoid]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015...ina-idUSKCN0SB01C20151017#0YTXfyeqLljX4jDw.97

Just like this....china consortium financing proposal to California HSR

 

[Tekkun]

China has the financial muscle to pull it off.
Malaysia don't have much bargaining leverage.
They'll agree to terms if China is willing to provide financial assistance. This will be a lifeline that the govt desperately needs.

If China cannot get the HSR, they will buy the contract.
Cheque book diplomacy.

 

[freekazoid]

http://www.propertyguru.com.my/prop...ala-lumpur-singapore-hsr-to-cost-rm65-billion

Works on the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail may start in early 2018, with the cost expected to reach RM65 billion, reported The New Straits Times.

Notably, the current estimated cost per kilometre of the HSR systems and track stands at US$10 million (RM42.6 million).

“This means, for a total length of 350km, the systems and track works would cost RM15 billion. Civil infrastructure cost is about three times more than the systems and track works so we are looking at RM45 billion,” said the sources.

“We also estimate that there should be at least 60 four-car train sets, with 30 sets each to serve the express and transit services. The cost to purchase the 60 sets would be about RM5 billion.”

“These are the current estimates for the HSR project based on today’s market price for raw materials and the value of the Ringgit versus the US dollar.”

In fact, private parties have proposed to build the HSR link in exchange of a 50-year concession, said the source.

“That is how long it would take for them to recover their investment in the HSR project should it cost RM65 billion. Both Malaysia and Singapore are still in discussions over how to implement the project,” stated the source.

“It could be on a government-to-government business model where the Japanese or Chinese can come up with the money and fund the development. Nothing is fixed yet.”

Recently, Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Razali Ibrahim revealed that only four percent of the rail will be in Singapore.

Besides reducing travel time between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur to 90 minutes, the HSR is also set to contribute RM100 billion to the gross domestic product of the country.

Meanwhile, Malaysia High-Speed Rail Corp Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Mohd Nur Ismail Mohamed Kamal reportedly said that the bilateral agreement for the project is expected to be signed in early-2016.

“Once the agreement is signed, it would take about one year or so for tenders to come out. We are fine-tuning details of the proposed alignment and design. We are open to bids from various parties,” he said.

Image: Sourced from Free Malaysia Today

 

[xebay11]

http://www.propertyguru.com.my/prop...ala-lumpur-singapore-hsr-to-cost-rm65-billion

Works on the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail may start in early 2018, with the cost expected to reach RM65 billion, reported The New Straits Times.

Notably, the current estimated cost per kilometre of the HSR systems and track stands at US$10 million (RM42.6 million).

“This means, for a total length of 350km, the systems and track works would cost RM15 billion. Civil infrastructure cost is about three times more than the systems and track works so we are looking at RM45 billion,” said the sources.

“We also estimate that there should be at least 60 four-car train sets, with 30 sets each to serve the express and transit services. The cost to purchase the 60 sets would be about RM5 billion.”

“These are the current estimates for the HSR project based on today’s market price for raw materials and the value of the Ringgit versus the US dollar.”

In fact, private parties have proposed to build the HSR link in exchange of a 50-year concession, said the source.

“That is how long it would take for them to recover their investment in the HSR project should it cost RM65 billion. Both Malaysia and Singapore are still in discussions over how to implement the project,” stated the source.

“It could be on a government-to-government business model where the Japanese or Chinese can come up with the money and fund the development. Nothing is fixed yet.”

Recently, Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Razali Ibrahim revealed that only four percent of the rail will be in Singapore.

Besides reducing travel time between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur to 90 minutes, the HSR is also set to contribute RM100 billion to the gross domestic product of the country.

Meanwhile, Malaysia High-Speed Rail Corp Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Mohd Nur Ismail Mohamed Kamal reportedly said that the bilateral agreement for the project is expected to be signed in early-2016.

“Once the agreement is signed, it would take about one year or so for tenders to come out. We are fine-tuning details of the proposed alignment and design. We are open to bids from various parties,” he said.

Image: Sourced from Free Malaysia Today

Start then report, 2018 is a long way off in Malaysia time.

 

[snowbird]

Start then report, 2018 is a long way off in Malaysia time.

The report said "may start in early 2018", not expected to start, not scheduled to start, not even very likely to start, which means it may not even start in 2018!

 

[Funniman]

The report said "may start in early 2018", not expected to start, not scheduled to start, not even very likely to start, which means it may not even start in 2018!

Wait till Malaysian General Elections in 2018 and see if Najib still win.

 

[snowbird]

Wait till Malaysian General Elections in 2018 and see if Najib still win.

That too, but if they can't settle the bilateral agreement on the HSR by next year, everything will be pushed back further.
The HSR was proposed at a time when the oil price was around US$120 which contributed about RM65 billions or 35% of govt. revenue.
So if crude oil still hovers around US$50 for another 2,3 years, their national budget will be in severe deficit.........so there will be major trimming here and there while mega projects will be deferred.

 

[Tekkun]

That too, but if they can't settle the bilateral agreement on the HSR by next year, everything will be pushed back further.
The HSR was proposed at a time when the oil price was around US$120 which contributed about RM65 billions or 35% of govt. revenue.
So if crude oil still hovers around US$50 for another 2,3 years, their national budget will be in severe deficit.........so there will be major trimming here and there while mega projects will be deferred.

I do not think funding is an issue here as the financial package had already been dealt with. The State Government is only providing the land. The construction costs is absorbed by the MRT consortium. Every one is providing some sort of soft loan financial package from Japan to China. As I say before, if they can't win, they will buy the contract.

 

[freekazoid]

I do not think funding is an issue here as the financial package had already been dealt with. The State Government is only providing the land. The construction costs is absorbed by the MRT consortium. Every one is providing some sort of soft loan financial package from Japan to China. As I say before, if they can't win, they will buy the contract.

Plenty of financiers...plenty players want to tap into HSR...SG drooling to have it....on way get cockup is MY internal politics......

 

[Tekkun]

Plenty of financiers...plenty players want to tap into HSR...SG drooling to have it....on way get cockup is MY internal politics......

Even in MY, you have this Minister who went to Japan and said Japanese system is the best and we have another Minister went to China and said Chinese one is better than the best. Of course you have the French and their Malaysian politically connected partners who say theirs is bestest of the best. Honestly, I do not think SG has any say on the construction. Maybe only the modus operandi of the HSR system.

 

[snowbird]

I do not think funding is an issue here as the financial package had already been dealt with. The State Government is only providing the land. The construction costs is absorbed by the MRT consortium. Every one is providing some sort of soft loan financial package from Japan to China. As I say before, if they can't win, they will buy the contract.

Not so simple.
Its like someone gives you a Ferrari for free but you still need to fork out the hefty COE, road tax and maintenance and operating cost......... while your earning only S$3K per mth.