U are looking at it from the wrong point of view. The returns from an en bloc is declining exponentially for a 99 year leasehold, whereas for a freehold, its not as time sensitive. U have to look at the time factor. as the leasehold condo gets older, the developer doing the enbloc must weight the remaining years on the lease and what he can get as a top up from whoever owns the land. eg. if there is 50 years left on the 99 year lease, and he can get another 99 years a top up, its worth more for him then if the lease decays down to 20 years and then he gets a top up. Also, the other factor is how much more density he can get on that 99 year freehold land. even if he gets the top up he wants, he has to have some certainty that the govt will allow a much higher plot ratio to make it worth his while. Lots nearer the core districts have higher chances then those in outlying areas to get more density. The extra 10 storeys he can potentially get, determines in part what he is willing to pay for the enbloc.
The exit strategy for a freehold is not necessarily enbloc. It could be a JV with an established developer whereby the owners will put up the land and the developer builds a new higher density tower. Of course, this has not been tried, but its not impossible. The easiest is an enbloc. but they are not subject to the time constraint on the freehold. so in theory, they can ride the property market cycle and sell at the top to a developer whereas the leasehold condo owners might have to sell regardless of the market condition due to the their lease time constraints.
In short, the returns are difficult to calculate for both scenarios. but in general, freehold do better. how much better is dependent on what i mentioned and also on location.
