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Exchange Rates for RM
- Thread starter crystal_tiong
- Start date
RM is really strengthening.
A few weeks ago, many people here were "predicting" that SGDMYR will hit 2.7 by Sep 13, and one was even eyeing 3.0.
This week, I guess many will comment that MYR is strengthening, maybe even drastically to 2.45.
This goes to show how easily one is being swayed by short-term movements.
Actually, there's 1 more movement aside from up and down that no one seems to bother about - sideways. How many think that SGDMYR is on a sideways trend for a while, perhaps until the year's end?
This week, I guess many will comment that MYR is strengthening, maybe even drastically to 2.45.
This goes to show how easily one is being swayed by short-term movements.
Actually, there's 1 more movement aside from up and down that no one seems to bother about - sideways. How many think that SGDMYR is on a sideways trend for a while, perhaps until the year's end?
A few weeks ago, many people here were "predicting" that SGDMYR will hit 2.7 by Sep 13, and one was even eyeing 3.0.
This week, I guess many will comment that MYR is strengthening, maybe even drastically to 2.45.
This goes to show how easily one is being swayed by short-term movements.
Actually, there's 1 more movement aside from up and down that no one seems to bother about - sideways. How many think that SGDMYR is on a sideways trend for a while, perhaps until the year's end?
Myr will weaken soon
Ok, I got some time today to do a few screen captures of the SGDMYR in 5y, 2y, 1y and 3m timeframes from Yahoo Finance.
Allow me to share my technical analysis. I don't claim to be an expert in this. For those of you who are, please feel free to disagree. I am doing this for the benefit of those who are totally clueless and need some direction to hold on to.
First, we look at the 5y chart.
5y SGDMYR by nextreal, on Flickr
It's quite clear that the MYR has been weakening against the SGD in the longer term. What else can we see? Well, it seems that we have hit a 15-year high at 2.61 in early Sep 13. So, how much retraction will we see? I say in the near future, the pair should be supported at 2.50, seen from the middle trend line.
We now zoom in to the 2y chart.
2y SGDMYR by nextreal, on Flickr
What do you know? 2.50 seems like a strong resistance for a good 9 months from Jul 12 to about Apr 13. It was finally broken in May this year. We then see 2 occasions when 2.50 reverses to become the support for the 2 inverse spikes in early Aug 13 and more recently a few days ago. This serves to reinforce that 2.50 is a strong technical support for the recent retraction. Besides, 2.50 is also a nice psychological barrier that many short traders may choose to exit at.
Let's take a look at the 1y chart now.
1y SGDMYR by nextreal, on Flickr
Well, it's clear from here that SGD is losing steam and MYR is gaining ground when the middle trend line was breached in mid Sep 13. In fact, it has already breached the -100% lower trend line. This strongly suggests that SGDMYR has turned bearish.
So, how low can the pair go? We zoom in to the 3m chart now.
3m SGDMYR by nextreal, on Flickr
We see the pair falling nicely in this bearish trend channel. It should continue to do so unless for some reason, 2.55 is breached within the next few days. If not (and I think this will be more likely the case), we should see SGDMYR falling towards 2.50 soon. In fact, the shape of the graph suggests that 4 peaks were formed since late Aug 13, and 2.61 could not be broken. And (this is more advanced) if we apply Fibonacci Ratios on the peak in late Sep 13 (100%) and the recent valley a few days ago (0%), the few smaller peaks at 2.555 form the midway (50%) neatly, which means we could very likely see a drop to even 2.445 (-50%) or worse, to 2.39 (-100%).
So, what is the bottomline? I would suggest we watch these 2 levels carefully - 2.55 and 2.50. We have seen that SGDMYR has been trading in this narrow-ish 500 pips sideways channel for a few weeks now, and I suspect we will continue to do so, especially since we are approaching the end of the year when trading volume is quite low.
If the 2.50 support is broken, we should see the pair falling to 2.445 then to 2.39. Bad news for those who are still paying for their property, but cheers for those who are selling.
Conversely, if the 2.55 resistance is breached, then perhaps there is a chance that the pair will climb further towards 2.61 again. But really, I don't think we will see this anytime soon.
Lastly, let me stress again that I am not providing any expert opinions here. I won't stand to gain a thing if all that I've written come true. So similarly, don't blame me if the market goes 180 to my analysis. Even true FOREX experts are not accountable for their insights and views.
Tks Nextreal for ur analysis..
Luckily changed a bundle at 2.58
Wow! Where did u get such rate fm? Preferential rate?
T
tonyshit
Guest
so good. where?
http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysia/subdued-growth-seen-malaysia-next-year
"We believe the budget announcement will prompt a broad change in (investor) perceptions/allocations," it said, adding that with the potential for foreign capital inflows, the ringgit could strengthen to 3.02 per US dollar in the first quarter of 2014.
Assume SGD stay at current level of 1.24 , you get 3.02/1.24 or 2.435 !
"We believe the budget announcement will prompt a broad change in (investor) perceptions/allocations," it said, adding that with the potential for foreign capital inflows, the ringgit could strengthen to 3.02 per US dollar in the first quarter of 2014.
Assume SGD stay at current level of 1.24 , you get 3.02/1.24 or 2.435 !
Yes being CIMB privilege banking
What is the market at when they give you 2.58?
2.61?
2.60?
2.59?
2.58?
I recently covered at 2.53, market level 2.5560. (around RM500,000)
don't be so bothered by exchange rate. if you can foretell exchange rate, you would be GOD. you would be living in New York and Paris and London and Monte Carlo.
Do whats best for you in your situation.
I changed a bunch at 2.58. when it fell, i changed another bunch at 2.56. but i was scolding myself for being an idiot for not changing more at 2.58. but who would have known???
truth is, when i made my purchase, i made the calculations at 2.5. when it fell to 2.58, i only saved abt SGD10k for my total purchase...... spread over 3 years. that's SGD3k a year. i think that's silly money to waste time and sleep over.
unless there are super drastic movements or if we trade in mega amounts, a 10sen movement really doesn't translate to a whole lot of savings in the grand scheme of things (unless you are buying a 100m building)
Do whats best for you in your situation.
I changed a bunch at 2.58. when it fell, i changed another bunch at 2.56. but i was scolding myself for being an idiot for not changing more at 2.58. but who would have known???
truth is, when i made my purchase, i made the calculations at 2.5. when it fell to 2.58, i only saved abt SGD10k for my total purchase...... spread over 3 years. that's SGD3k a year. i think that's silly money to waste time and sleep over.
unless there are super drastic movements or if we trade in mega amounts, a 10sen movement really doesn't translate to a whole lot of savings in the grand scheme of things (unless you are buying a 100m building)
To a person who drive a merz, S$3K is like S$0.30 to him.
But to a person who dont own any two or four wheels, S$250 or M$630 a mth meant alot to him...
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