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Economic News

Fed rate hike may be warranted later this year: Yellen
POSTED: 28 Mar 2015 03:50
UPDATED: 28 Mar 2015 04:33

An interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve may be warranted later this year, with a gradual path expected to follow, although a downturn in core inflation or wage growth could force it to hold off, the central bank's chief said.

SAN FRANCISCO/WASHINGTON: An interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve may be warranted later this year, with a gradual path expected to follow, although a downturn in core inflation or wage growth could force it to hold off, the central bank's chief said on Friday (Mar 27).

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that after the first rate increase a further, gradual tightening in monetary policy will likely be warranted. If incoming data fails to support the Fed's economic forecast, the path of policy will be adjusted, she said.

"With continued improvement in economic conditions, an increase in the target range for that rate may well be warranted later this year," Yellen said in prepared remarks at a monetary policy conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Yellen added that while the Fed is giving "serious consideration" to beginning to reduce its accommodative monetary policy, the timing and the path of a Fed hike would depend on the incoming economic data.

"The actual path of policy will evolve as economic conditions evolve, and policy tightening could speed up, slow down, pause, or even reverse course depending on actual and expected developments in real activity and inflation," Yellen said.

With labor markets looking set to improve further, and one-time downward pressure on inflation likely to dissipate, a "modest" rate rise would be unlikely to undercut the recovery, Yellen said. She made clear a rate rise would not be contingent on an increase in either core inflation or wages, although a deterioration in either could prompt her to delay tightening.

Yellen, returning to the regional Fed bank she used to run, is under pressure to begin tightening monetary policy, while at the same time being careful not to disrupt the US economic recovery underway.

The Fed signalled in its March statement that it was moving a step closer toward raising rates, though the central bank cut its economic outlook and slashed its median estimate for the federal funds rate, in a sign that it was prepared to move more slowly than the market expected ahead of the meeting.

While June remains on the table for the timing of the Fed's first rate hike in a decade, the dovish tone from the March statement and from Yellen's press conference indicated the central bank was more likely to move in September or later.

With the unemployment rate dropping to 5.5 per cent last month, and after more than six years of loose monetary policy, the Fed is eager to begin raising rates and returning to more normal policy. Yellen noted in her remarks that US payroll gains have averaged 275,000 per month over the past year.

Several Fed officials have said the central bank has waited too long to bump rates higher, and the delay risks stoking inflation and asset bubbles. But inflation has remained stubbornly low, complicating the Fed's plan to part ways with its accommodative monetary policy.

Yellen said that if economic conditions evolve how the Fed's policy setting committee anticipates, "I would expect the level of the federal funds rate to be normalized only gradually, reflecting the gradual diminution of headwinds from the financial crisis and the balance of risks I have enumerated of moving either too slowly or too quickly."

- Reuters/fl

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/fed-rate-hike-may-be/1748414.html
 
Looks like there will be a small interest rate increase by end of this year in US, follow by Singapore, which is starting to happen now (profiteering by banks?)
 
Some people had been making comparison of the possibility of developing JB into another Shenzhen and shed off that backyard of Singapore image.
Possible?
Difficult, extremely difficult.
First, just take a good look at Shenzhen now and at some of her statistics.
It had a population of 14 million and is one of the cities within the province of Guangdong with a total population of 106 million.
It is also within the ever developing Pearl Delta Economic Zone which include other major cities Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou etc.
The Shenzhen stock exchange has a market cap of US$1 trillion (KL Stock Exchange US$189 billion) and GDP US$24,336 ( Malaysia US$12,127)!
The CDB area in Shenzhen is heavily built-up with an efficient metro network and hundreds of modern skyscrapers and is comparable to SG's Shenton Way.
Just looking that the statistics, Shenzhen is even more developed that KL, Malaysia's capital city with its stock market capitalization is more than 5 times more than KL.
JB can never be as developed as KL and even the Federal will also not allowed it, so how to be developed like Shenzhen?
JB had all the while depended on SG on its retail businesses and now house ownership while it was also quite the same in Shenzhen and HK.
But the political and racial difference between JB/SG and Shenzhen/HK is as different as chalk and cheese.
Its all Chinese / Cantonese in HK/Shenzhen there is no racial and religion tension there like in MY.
Although HK is self governed (for next 35 years), its already part of China and the Chief Executive still have to report to Beijing.
As for JB its a bit more tricky in terms of politics when the Federal and State government sometimes don't see eye to eye (eg. the recent reclamation stop work issue) and always need Federal approval many things.
 
I think singapore is aware of the pitfalls. Yet it can't deny the fact that singapore needs access to a broader hinterland beyond singapore.
I'm more interested in the rationale for China govt to pump in so much government dollars into Johor
 
I think singapore is aware of the pitfalls. Yet it can't deny the fact that singapore needs access to a broader hinterland beyond singapore.
I'm more interested in the rationale for China govt to pump in so much government dollars into Johor

It's obvious that China is tired of holding USD debts whilst the crazy Americans keep up with their unrelentless QE n spendthrift ways. Perhaps we are the proverbial spreaded eggs in the other basket.
 
I think singapore is aware of the pitfalls. Yet it can't deny the fact that singapore needs access to a broader hinterland beyond singapore.
I'm more interested in the rationale for China govt to pump in so much government dollars into Johor

Its not the China govt but it was the Chinese developers flocking into JB, thinking JB is a gold mine.
Got a feeling they were grossly oversold about the potential of JB.
Also, during the last 2 years, China was having an acute over supply in residential housing and bigger developers need to fill up the orders to report a healthy growth so they have to branch out.
And combined with the tightening of credit line to developers at home, many went overseas and they chose JB.
But the results shown that the demand is quite weak and really not as expected and now with many units still unsold so many months after launching.
 
let's talk of average person.
170cm can sit comfortably in an axia the younger brother of myvi.
 
I have seen 4 burly sized Ang-mos coming out from a W-plated MYVI to go to the toilet @ 2nd link. At 90kg I thought I was big size but each of them were heavier than me.

Poor Myvi I thought. I drove in a Myvi many times while roaming around Malaysia. Damn good car and I can safely say its the best car Malaysia has ever produced in term of value for money.



depend on the person size la. 190cm tall person how to sit comfootbally in myvi :p
 
Success or not, we will only know in 10 years time. But we cannot say they never try, this itself should earn our applause. For those who has placed their bet on the success of nusajaya, hold your breath, things are moving in the right direction.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/...Gerbang-Nusajaya-with-GDV-of-RM42b/?style=biz

Agreed with Manhattan. Good news have started trickling in, slowly but certainly, after the series of 'doom and gloom' during 2014.

UEM Sunrise Bhd : sees rail boost to project

NUSAJAYA (Johor): UEM Sunrise Bhd expects its approximately RM40 billion Phase 2 development called Gerbang Nusajaya, here, will be further boosted by the proposed high speed rail (HSR) link between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

Malaysia and Singapore have in principal agreed to build the HSR link, with seven stations planned across Peninsular Malaysia.

In Johor alone, there will be three stations. The other four stations will be located in Ayer Keroh, Malacca; Putrajaya; Labu in Seremban, and Bandar Malaysia in Sungai Besi.

According to UEM Sunrise chief operating officer (commercial) Raymond Cheah, the HSR station will be located in the centre of Gerbang Nusajaya and surrounded by catalytic developments such as Nusajaya Tech Park and Singapore tycoon Peter Lim's Motorsport City.

The Tech Park, which has a gross development value of RM3.7 billion, is a joint venture between UEM Sunrise and Singapore'sAscendas Group.

Cheah said the masterplan for Gerbang Nusajaya is being redesigned to include the proposed HSR station.

UEM Sunrise, as master developer for Nusajaya, plans to develop the station as a transit-oriented development (TOD) together with the Land Public Transport Commission, he said.

"It will be an integrated mixed-used development, featuring office and residential towers, a hotel, retail and commercial. We are quite bullish on this development. If you look at TOD projects in Japan, Singapore and Europe, they have all been very successful.

"We expect the TOD project to further add value to Nusajaya and Iskandar Malaysia as a complete package," Cheah told Business Times after a media briefing on the second wave of development for Nusajaya yesterday.

Cheah is hopeful that the HSR station in Gerbang Nusajaya will link to the Singapore-Johor Baru rapid transit system (RTS).

Iskandar Regional Development Authority chief executive Datuk Ismail Ibrahim, who was at the briefing, said the key success factors for the HSR link will be connectivity with land, air and maritime travel.

He said the final stop for the HSR terminal in Johor will be in Iskandar Malaysia, in particular flagship B, which is Nusajaya.

"Our prime minister and his (Singapore) counterpart will meet soon on this. We anticipate this will take place at the next leaders' retreat, which is expected to be in the middle of this year," Ismail said.

Gerbang Nusajaya will be developed over 25 years. Upon full completion, it is expected to create an estimated 76,000 direct jobs and 137,000 indirect ones.
 
Falling ringgit: Bigger bills, tighter belts for Malaysians
Many cut back on travel; expenses in foreign currencies go up

PUBLISHED ON APR 18, 2015 12:53 AM

BY SHANNON TEOH MALAYSIA CORRESPONDENT IN KUALA LUMPUR AND JESSICA LIM

IN THE zero-sum game of currency markets, for every winner there is a loser. And right now, against currencies that matter to them, the Malaysians want the referee to blow the whistle.

The bills at home have become bigger and trips overseas have become rarer as the ringgit, with lower oil prices and the threat of a sovereign downgrade weighing it down, shrinks against the greenback and the Singdollar.

For many, like Mr Ammar Ghazali, the ringgit's fortunes have mirrored their own.

He had just found a new job and set his sights on an iPhone 6 when it was released in Malaysia last November. He missed out on the first wave because of the huge demand. And when it was possible to get his hands on it, he realised that it had become too expensive in Malaysian currency terms. Since March, Apple has raised the price of the device twice - by 13 per cent in all - and it now costs RM3,550 (S$1,307).

"So I'm stuck with my old Blackberry," the 31-year-old told The Straits Times.

While he bides his time, others are seeing their money slip away. Ms Yvonne Ho said her grocery bills left her stunned as items like fresh milk and canned tuna have become 30 per cent costlier in recent months. The 6 per cent goods and service tax introduced on April 1 has also played its part but it is the currency shock that has hurt most.

Since last August, the ringgit has plummeted 15 per cent against the greenback and recently touched a six-year low when one US dollar was worth RM3.72. While it slid a more modest 6 per cent on the Singapore dollar, this has left it at its weakest point (S$1=RM2.72) against its neighbouring currency since at least 1981.

The hardest hit are those who earn Malaysian ringgit but spend a large chunk of that in Singapore.

Mr Peter Tan, 45, a Malaysian whose only child goes to school in Singapore, said that the recent payment of school fees was "painful". The manager at a building maintenance firm in Malaysia said that he pays $4,000 per semester for his 19-year-old son at Singapore Polytechnic. Currency movements have increased his fees this semester over the last by RM800.

"It's very bad for me. I earn in ringgit, but pay in Singapore dollars," said Mr Tan. "It's a short-term pain, we will bear with it. I just hope the ringgit strengthens soon." For now, he said, he tries not to travel to Singapore unless he needs to.

Many other Malaysians are following his lead as hotels in Singapore report a drop in Malaysian tourists.

Santa Grand Hospitality's two properties popular with Malaysian tourists, Santa Grand Hotel Bugis and boutique hostel The Plot, said that there has been a 10 per cent dip in Malaysian guests so far this year compared to last year.

Malaysian tourists make up half of Santa Grand Hotel Bugis' guests and 30 per cent of guests at The Plot in Outram. "We used to have families drive two or three MPVs (multi-purpose vehicles) up. Now we see smaller groups," said Santa Grand Hospitality's marketing manager, Mr Derek Poh. "They are booking smaller rooms, too, and staying two nights instead of three."

Singapore Tourism Board said1,233,000 Malaysians visited Singapore last year, making them the third largest source market for tourists here after Indonesia and China.

These numbers could fall in the short run. Malaysians are waiting for the storm to blow over, but it could last a while. According to Maybank, the exchange rate will hit RM3.75 to the US dollar this quarter and remain there until the fourth quarter.

[email protected]

[email protected]

- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/premium...elts-malaysians-20150418#sthash.PxP9QtiD.dpuf
 
Short run?
Medium run?
Long run?
Or the new normal?

Wait and see.
Market correction is happening sooner or later, question is whether it'll be a major correction or just a minor tipping.
And also whether the RM depreciation against the property value depreciation/appreciation, which is worse.
 
Raw materials and services will get more expensive due to GST and weaker RM. Developers will slow down their launches to the rate the market can digest. There is no point for developers to sell at a loss when the holding costs are cheap when the plots were acquired cheaply several years ago. The developers caught in this slowdown are mainly the condominium/mixed-development developers that purchased plots at high prices in 2013 and 2014. We might encounter a few fire sales here and there this year for condominiums or commercial shops, and there is a good chance some projects may be abandoned/delayed indefinitely after developers have collected deposits and first few installments from buyers. I doubt low-mid tier landed property prices will correct as I can still see sales moving and it is likely for their prices to appreciate gradually. However do expect severe QC issues for properties that TOP from 2015 onward due to cost-cutting measures by developers.
 
That's the problem that we're worried about.
Hope that the quality issues would be kept to a minimum else it would be very troublesome to chase after the developer to fix all the issues.
 
Jho Low’s company received US$330mil, says whistle-blower
Posted on 26 April 2015 - 09:26pm
Last updated on 26 April 2015 - 11:49pm

PETALING JAYA: Whistle-blower Sarawak Report claims to have obtained new documents to show that Good Star Limited, a company controlled by businessman Low Taek Jho, better known as Jho Low, had received the entirety of a US$330 million (RM1.18 billion) “loan” from 1Malaysia Development Fund (1MDB) in 2011.

It said the loan had been authorised by 1MDB, supposedly in favour of its former joint venture partner PetroSaudi International although Jho Low has repeatedly maintained that he has held no role in 1MDB and made no profit from its investment dealings.

Sarawak Report has earlier alleged that PetroSaudi directors had agreed to “act as front” for Jho Low and that out of a total of US$1.5 billion (RM5.36 billion) already invested in PetroSaudi between September 2009 and September 2010, US$860 million (RM3.07 billion) had been secretly siphoned into Good Star’s RBS Coutts bank account in Zurich.

“Now, official investigators have ascertained that a further US$$330 million, which 1MDB had sought approval to lend to PetroSaudi in May 2011, also all went straight to Good Star Limited instead,” said Sarawak Report in its latest exclusive.

It claimed that according to official investigators, reporting earlier this month to Malaysia’s regulatory authorities, the money was funded by “ringgit borrowing from offshore banks and the balance of the “Sukuk Murabaha proceeds”.

“The money was transferred in four separate tranches in the form of US currency – ($30 million, $65 million, $110 million and $125 million) – straight into Good Star Limited’s RBS Coutts, Zurich account, Sarawak Report claimed.

Yet approval had only been granted by the regulators for 1MDB to lend the money to 1MDB PetroSaudi Limited (BVI) on the basis that it was to “finance on-going overseas investment in the oil and gas sector”.

It added that the rationale for the approval was “to pursue a strategic and global partnership in the energy sector and promoting foreign direct investment into Malaysia”.

“There was no mention made of the company Good Star in the 1MDB application and neither was approval granted for the money to be sent to the company, but nevertheless all four of the payments totalling US$330 million from two separate banks in Malaysia went straight to Good Star Limited, according to the documents we hold,” the whistle-blower site said.

It quoted official investigators as saying that the application presented by 1MDB for the alleged loan claimed it was “part of the government-to-government initiative between Malaysia and Saudi Arabia specifically to explore investment opportunities in the energy sector”.

It also quoted the investigators as saying 1MDB had stated in its application to the financial controllers that its lending to 1MDB PetroSaudi (BVI) had been approved by the Minister of Finance and the 1MDB board of directors.

But the money did not go to 1MDB PetroSaudi (BVI). It went to Good Star Limited, controlled by Jho Low, said Sarawak Report, adding that shockingly, the investigation has further established that the US$$330 million sent to Good Star was officially reported to Bank Negara Malaysia as having been paid to 1MDB PetroSaudi.

Last week, the website claimed Singapore authorities have identified that over US$$500 million (RM1.79 billion) had passed through Jho Low’s own BSI accounts from Good Star between 2011 and 2013.

The Minister of Finance has, however, claimed in a series of statements that US$$2.3 billion (RM8.2 billion) was “redeemed” from the PetroSaudi investment in 2012 and that US$$1.103 billion (RM3.96 billion) of that money is still sitting in cash in 1MDB’s Brazen Sky account at BSI Singapore.

The question now is who was responsible for providing this misleading information that Good Star Limited was a subsidiary company of PetroSaudi International and why none of the banks involved in any of these transactions ever see fit to file a suspicious transaction report, said Sarawak Report, adding that it was perhaps time for the Auditor-General to check 1MDB account at BSI bank.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1396113
 
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