Global economy stumbles, but Singapore uptick still seen
Export demand is less likely a problem for growth than domestic labour market tightness and rising US interest rates
By Teh Shi
[email protected]@TehShiNingBT
21 Nov 5:50 AM
Singapore
THE global economy - which Singapore now relies on more heavily to support growth given domestic restructuring's drag - has been handed a negative report card in a week heavy with economic data: Japan fell unexpectedly into recession, the eurozone's recovery stalled and China's factory output shrank.
These rising concerns over global growth will feed into Singapore's own official growth forecast for 2015 - to be announced next Tuesday along with third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures.
But private-sector economists still expect Singapore to benefit from improved external demand for exports in the coming quarters. Export demand is less likely to pose a problem for growth than domestic labour market tightness and the impact of the imminent hike in US interest rates.
Most analysts would not go as far as UK Prime Minister David Cameron did at the start of this week - to declare that "red warning lights are once again flashing on the dashboard of the global economy", even though one weak data release has followed another since.
Japan announced a surprise descent into recession with its economy contracting an annualised 1.6 per cent in Q3 from the quarter before as a sales tax hike dampened consumption. The eurozone narrowly averted recession, barely growing 0.1 per cent in Q3, only to face a slump in Markit's flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) on Thursday - a "serious blow to hopes that the recovery would resume towards the end of the year", Capital Economics said.
China too, showed signs of further slowdown. News of slumps in investment inflows and home prices were capped on Thursday by the HSBC-Markit flash manufacturing PMI falling to a six-month low as the output measure contracted for the first time since May.
The latest US Federal Open Market Committee minutes showed worries that disappointing growth in Europe, Japan and China, and the stronger US dollar, could restrain US exports.
OCBC economist Selena Ling sees these as "amber lights", given that the US economy has continued to grow steadily, while Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho thinks there is a need to "look beyond the noise" in a 2014 that has been full of challenges to growth, from conflict and unrest to epidemics and bad weather.
"The US investment cycle and consumer confidence appear to be pushing steadily higher and this means that demand from the US will be stronger. Singapore and indeed, most of East Asia, is heavily leveraged to the US investment cycle. This will at least offset the weakness we see in the EU and China," said Mr Leong.
Low global oil prices will help the US' large, domestically-oriented economy too, said Standard Chartered Bank economist Edward Lee.
And even the slowdown in China may be a concern more for commodity exporters, said Capital Economics' Asia economist Daniel Martin. "Its demand for the type of goods that Singapore exports should remain strong," he added.
Last month, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) released advance estimates that put Singapore's Q3 GDP growth at 2.4 per cent year-on-year, unchanged from growth in Q2. Economists polled by Bloomberg say this may be revised up to 3.2 per cent, when final growth figures are announced next Tuesday. The official forecast for the coming year is typically unveiled then too.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore's policy statement last month outlined expectations that global growth would be uneven - with the US continuing to lead the global recovery, weak growth in Japan and the eurozone, and moderating growth in China. This, it said should provide some support to externally-oriented sectors of Singapore's economy, such as manufacturing and trade-related services, projecting GDP growth of 2.5-3.5 per cent in 2014 and "a broadly similar pace of expansion" in 2015.
UOB economist Francis Tan does not expect recent disappointments in the global economy to affect this view much. Japan's recession was probably the largest surprise, but the economy will likely rebound now that the second tax hike has been postponed, he said.
It would not be difficult for exports to surpass this year's performance, Mr Lee noted. Non-oil domestic exports for the first 10 months of this year shrank 1.9 per cent, and total exports grew a meagre 0.4 per cent, a very modest improvement over last year.
Hence, the main risks on the horizon are the degree of China's economic adjustment and the market volatility that may arise as the US Federal Reserve tightens policy, Ms Ling said. In Mr Martin's view, this would push up interest rates in Singapore, and the slowdown in credit growth will be a drag on the economy too.
But domestic restructuring is still the strongest drag, as the tight labour market raises business costs and constrains growth. "The pain is, however, necessary for us to get to a new level of services productivity," Mr Leong added.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/gov...nomy-stumbles-but-singapore-uptick-still-seen