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数字人民币来了 会冲击支付宝微信支付吗?
2020-10-17 09:31:35 来源: 上海证券报
最近几日,很多深圳居民被政府派发的200元数字人民币红包“砸中”,大呼“幸运”和“新奇”。这是国庆长假之后,深圳市人民政府联合人民银行开展的数字人民币红包试点,引发各界强烈关注。从网络上披露的各种实践体验来看,使用数字货币,与支付宝、微信支付区别不大,甚至有商户表示“比第三方支付还好”。
虽是一件利国利民的好事,但市场还是有不少疑虑,担心数字货币会冲击支付宝、微信支付等现有第三方支付市场。
就记者采访情况看,这样的担心有些过度解读。数字货币对于公众而言,其实是相当于多了一种支付工具,可进一步减少现金的使用。与两大支付巨头——支付宝、微信支付(两者占移动支付市场份额90%以上)相比,人民银行数字货币有多个优势:从法权上,效力和安全性最好;能应付极端情况,无需网络就能支付;可控匿名等。
要理解上述问题,首先就要搞清楚数字货币到底是什么。根据监管部门权威人士解释,数字人民币是由中央银行发行的法定货币(英文简称“DC/EP”),是中央银行的负债,重点是替代M0(流通于银行体系之外的现金)——就是你我手里的现钞和硬币。
实际上,数字人民币就是人民银行用新技术将纸钞数字化。在现实中,尽管有各种电子支付,但M0体量仍然非常庞大。根据人民银行最新金融统计数据显示,9月末流通中货币(M0)余额8.24万亿元,同比增长11.1%,前三季度净投放现金5181亿元。
在投放中,人民银行坚持中心化管理,采用双层运营体系。也就是说,商业银行在人民银行开户,人民银行按照100%准备金制度将数字货币兑换给指定商业银行,再由商业银行或商业机构将数字货币兑换给普通公众。
数字货币是为了替代M0,因此不计利息,兑换也不需要服务费。为了避免对存款产生挤出效应等,人民银行在数字货币的设计上,还根据不同级别钱包设定交易限额和余额限额。像此次深圳试点,数字钱包余额上限为1万元,单笔交易限额2000元,每日交易限额5000元,每年交易限额5万元。
搞清楚数字货币到底是什么,自然也明白数字人民币不会冲击支付宝、微信支付等现有支付市场了。
在上海高级金融学院教授胡捷看来,在货币支付环节中,第三方支付简单来说就是个“跑腿”传递转账指令的角色,目前支付宝、微信支付已占据了相当大的“跑腿”份额,使用便捷,用户行为习惯已经形成。现在推出的数字货币支付,相当于多了一类转账指令需要“跑腿”传递。增加一个货币形态,并不会意味着“跑腿”市场的行业格局就一定会有什么重大变化。
持相似观点的还有西南财经大学金融学院数字经济研究中心主任陈文。他认为,在第三方支付如此便捷的当下,现金使用的绝对规模仍然相对较大,充分说明数字化的法币推广可以填补市场空白,而并非一定是抢占第三方支付机构市场。
事实上,人民银行数字货币研究所所长穆长春此前就明确表示,人民银行数字货币对微信支付、支付宝的位置不会产生影响。因为目前支付宝、微信支付也是使用人民币支付,其实也就是用商业银行存款货币进行支付。人民银行数字货币推出后,只是换成了数字人民币。虽然支付工具变了,功能也增加了,但渠道和场景都没有变化。
胡捷认为,目前大家对人民银行数字货币的认知其实有些不准确。它的影响大致相当于新加坡把纸币换成塑料材质,对于整个货币体系谈不到任何本质上的冲突,完全是一种形式上的转换。

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Will the digital renminbi hit Alipay and WeChat Pay?

2020-10-17 09:31:35 Source: Shanghai Securities News

   In recent days, many Shenzhen residents were "smashed" by the 200 yuan red envelope distributed by the government, shouting "lucky" and "novelty". This is a digital renminbi red envelope pilot project launched by the Shenzhen Municipal People’s Government and the People’s Bank of China after the National Day holiday, which has aroused strong concern from all walks of life. Judging from various practical experiences disclosed on the Internet, the use of digital currency is not much different from Alipay and WeChat payment, and some merchants even stated that it is "better than third-party payment."

   Although it is a good thing for the country and the people, there are still many doubts in the market, worrying that digital currencies will impact the existing third-party payment markets such as Alipay and WeChat Pay.

   From the reporter's interview, this kind of worry is a bit over-interpreted. For the public, digital currency is actually equivalent to an additional payment tool, which can further reduce the use of cash. Compared with the two major payment giants-Alipay and WeChat Pay (both accounting for more than 90% of the mobile payment market share), the People's Bank of China digital currency has several advantages: from the perspective of legal rights, it has the best effectiveness and security; it can cope with extremes Circumstances, payment can be made without internet; controllable anonymity, etc.

  To understand the above problems, we must first figure out what digital currency is. According to the explanation of the authority of the regulatory authority, the digital renminbi is a legal tender issued by the central bank ("DC/EP" in English) and a liability of the central bank. The focus is to replace M0 (cash circulating outside the banking system)-that is The cash and coins in your hands.

  In fact, the digital renminbi is the People's Bank of China using new technology to digitize banknotes. In reality, despite various electronic payments, M0 is still very large. According to the latest financial statistics of the People's Bank of China, the balance of currency (M0) in circulation at the end of September was 8.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, and the net cash injection in the first three quarters was 518.1 billion yuan.

   During the launch, the People's Bank of China adheres to centralized management and adopts a two-tier operating system. In other words, when a commercial bank opens an account with the People's Bank of China, the People's Bank of China will exchange digital currencies to designated commercial banks in accordance with the 100% reserve system, and then commercial banks or commercial institutions will exchange digital currencies to the general public.

  Digital currency is to replace M0, so no interest is calculated, and there is no service fee for exchange. In order to avoid the crowding-out effect on deposits, the People's Bank of China also sets transaction limits and balance limits according to different levels of wallets in the design of digital currencies. Like this Shenzhen pilot, the upper limit of the digital wallet balance is 10,000 yuan, the single transaction limit is 2,000 yuan, the daily transaction limit is 5,000 yuan, and the annual transaction limit is 50,000 yuan.

   To figure out what digital currency is, it is natural to understand that digital renminbi will not impact existing payment markets such as Alipay and WeChat Pay.

According to Hu Jie, a professor at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, in the currency payment link, third-party payment is simply a role of "running errands" to pass transfer instructions. At present, Alipay and WeChat payment have occupied a considerable share of "running errands". It is easy to use and user behavior habits have been formed. The digital currency payment now launched is equivalent to an extra type of transfer instruction that needs to be passed on "errands". The addition of a currency form does not mean that the industry pattern of the "errands" market will definitely undergo major changes.

   Another person holding a similar view is Chen Wen, director of the Digital Economy Research Center of the School of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. He believes that at the moment when third-party payment is so convenient, the absolute scale of cash usage is still relatively large, which fully shows that digital legal currency promotion can fill the gap in the market, not necessarily to seize the market of third-party payment institutions.

   In fact, Mu Changchun, director of the People's Bank of China's Digital Currency Research Institute, has made it clear that the People's Bank of China's digital currency will not affect the location of WeChat Pay and Alipay. Because currently Alipay and WeChat Pay also use RMB to pay, in fact, they use commercial bank deposit currencies for payment. After the People’s Bank of China’s digital currency was launched, it was simply replaced by a digital renminbi. Although payment tools have changed and functions have been added, the channels and scenarios have not changed.

  Hu Jie believes that the current perception of the People's Bank of China's digital currency is actually somewhat inaccurate. Its impact is roughly equivalent to Singapore's changing of paper money to plastic materials. There is no essential conflict with the entire monetary system, and it is a completely formal transformation.



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