Crumbling of Singapore?

[TracyTan866]

It's not a matter of "caught". We all have our views on how the presidential election played out.

My theory is that a portion of the PAP wanted TT and another faction wanted TCB.

The TCB faction told the TT faction "Look... if we go along and offer only TT, chances of him winning are slim. However, add TCB into the mix and let him run his campaign as someone who does not endorse the current PAP leadership, this will allow him to win a good portion of the anti PAP vote. If he does win then we still end up with a President who will ultimately toe the line instead of TJS.. a man full of angst and a questionable agenda. ".

If TCB had withdrawn from the race and it was a 3 way fight between TT, TJS and TKL, ask yourselves where TCB's votes would have gone. My belief is that TJS would have picked up a good portion... enough to oust TT. I could be wrong. I'm not insisting I'm right. All I'm doing is offering my analysis.

Just because it happens to be slightly different doesn't warrant derogatory remarks directed at me. I thought we're all civilised people here with a social conscience.

Who is not civilised?

 

[scroobal]

None of the factional leaders in PAP were involved in TCB campaign. All entities inlcuding unions that has or has been having symbiotic relationship with PAP actually endorsed TT.

This would be good illustration. The highest ranking minority race chap in TCB core campaign team and who sat at the table with him and others in the campaign leadership team was a taxi driver. These were PAP people who had nothing to lose.

Have to disagree about TJS picking up TCB votes if the latter did not stand but I would also suggest that number of candidates some much better than TJS would have stepped forward and he might not have received any of TCB votes. What is telling is that TJS got 20% odd which is usually hard core anti establishment who give their votes to the most confrontational with or without substance. And it went to TJS.

It should be noted that when TCB put his hand up, the govt enocuraged slate to take on TT refused to step forward.

It's not a matter of "caught". We all have our views on how the presidential election played out.

My theory is that a portion of the PAP wanted TT and another faction wanted TCB.

The TCB faction told the TT faction "Look... if we go along and offer only TT, chances of him winning are slim. However, add TCB into the mix and let him run his campaign as someone who does not endorse the current PAP leadership, this will allow him to win a good portion of the anti PAP vote. If he does win then we still end up with a President who will ultimately toe the line instead of TJS.. a man full of angst and a questionable agenda. ".

If TCB had withdrawn from the race and it was a 3 way fight between TT, TJS and TKL, ask yourselves where TCB's votes would have gone. My belief is that TJS would have picked up a good portion... enough to oust TT. I could be wrong. I'm not insisting I'm right. All I'm doing is offering my analysis.

Just because it happens to be slightly different doesn't warrant derogatory remarks directed at me. I thought we're all civilised people here with a social conscience.

 

[Fook Seng]

I believe more TCB voters would have defected to TJS but at the end of the day, it's all water under the bridge. We'll never know how it would have played out. The only way to know for sure is to cancel the last result and hold another election minus TCB.

My belief is that the PAP quietly did their own survey for the PE just as they did for the GE. The survey results revealed that combination of candidates that were approved to run gave TT the best chance of winning.

My thinking is that there was never the intention of a two PAP candidates situation. TCB entered the fray first and he was his own man and PAP had to deal with it. They could of course take TCB as a second choice compromise, someone who could give them some trouble but not entirely unfriendly and left it as that. Instead they had no faith in TCB (maybe he might question more of the inappropriate investments or maybe they just don't like him) and last minute put up TT instead of a minority candidate that people earlier had expected, thinking that with official endorsement, he would take the bulk of the PAP votes. Certification of both TJS and TKL ensured that anti-establishment votes would not all go to TCB. If either one of these did not participate, PAP would have lost its bet or that as what TFBH has indicated if there were more tactical voting, TCB would also have won. In the end, despite the odds and the many ways that could have scuppered their chances, PAP won and the other three candidates were left to rue their losses. TCB I believe had his finances all worked out but TJS and TKL would have debts to repay. In all this, I do not know what role GMS had played in all this.

 

[Leongsam]

TCB entered the fray first and he was his own man and PAP had to deal with it.

You mention "PAP had to deal with it.." as if the PAP is a monolith but that isn't the case anymore. "The PAP" is a collection of individuals each with their own idea of how the party should evolve.

To suggest that TCB is some sort of outcast simply seems too improbable to me. He was a party man for years. He helped LKY do his hatchet jobs. He was there when operation spectrum took place. There has to be a core group who are still PAP members who respect the man and wanted him in the president's chair.

Take a look at his glowing political record :

Political career

Representing the PAP, Tan was elected as a Member of Parliament for Ayer Rajah SMC at the 1980 general election (83% majority). He was re-elected five times in 1984 (75%), 1988 (70%), 1991 (75%), 1997 (73%) and 2001 (88%), winning by an average majority of 77%.[SUP][3][/SUP][SUP][4][/SUP] His 88% share of the vote in the 2001 parliamentary elections was the PAP’s best score in 31 years.[SUP][5][/SUP]

While in Parliament, he served as the Chairman of the Government Parliamentary Committees (GPCs) for Education (1987–90), National Development (1991–95) and the Environment (1995–97), and was the Co-ordinating Chairman for all GPCs from 1987-88. He was also a member of the GPCs for Communications (1997–2000) and Defence & Foreign Affairs (2001–06). Tan was the Leader of the Singapore-European Parliamentary Group between 1991–1996 and Singapore-SEA Parliamentary Group between 1997 - 2006. From 1987 - 1996, he was an elected member of the PAP Central Executive Committee,[SUP][4][/SUP] the highest ruling committee within the PAP. Tan stepped down as a Member of Parliament at the 2006 general election. He also served as Chairman of the Jurong East Town Council from 1989–91, Chairman of the West Coast-Ayer Rajah Town Council from 2001–04, Chairman of the Bukit Timah Community Development Council from 1997–2000, and Chairman of the Feedback Unit at the Ministry of Community Development from 1985-89.

 

[freedalas]

He might not look very new age himself but he was the officially endorsed candidate of the current crop of PAPPY leaders.

Don't kid yourself. Please lah, TT was asked by LKY to stand, and as an obedient old running dog, he complied that's all. What officially endorsed candidate of current crop of PAPPY leaders?

 

[Leongsam]

Don't kid yourself. Please lah, TT was asked by LKY to stand,

You were there when he asked?

 

[freedalas]

You were there when he asked?

Yup. You were there too what. Just that you couldn't see me as your view was blocked by LKY's ass since you were stooping down carrying his balls.

 

[Fook Seng]

You mention "PAP had to deal with it.." as if the PAP is a monolith but that isn't the case anymore. "The PAP" is a collection of individuals each with their own idea of how the party should evolve.

To suggest that TCB is some sort of outcast simply seems too improbable to me. He was a party man for years. He helped LKY do his hatchet jobs. He was there when operation spectrum took place. There has to be a core group who are still PAP members who respect the man and wanted him in the president's chair.

Take a look at his glowing political record :

No intention to imply that TCB was an outcast. He, himself, admitted as much that many of his friends in the party had wanted to openly support him but found it inconvenient. But there is definitely a formal position that PAP wanted it to turn out for them and that was TT to win. Although no "whip" was used, it couldn't anyway, it was clearly expressed by all inner circle members who the preferred candidate was. What turned out to be a split of votes was all achieved on an uncoordinated individual level.

 

[Fook Seng]

I believe more TCB voters would have defected to TJS but at the end of the day, it's all water under the bridge. We'll never know how it would have played out. The only way to know for sure is to cancel the last result and hold another election minus TCB.

My belief is that the PAP quietly did their own survey for the PE just as they did for the GE. The survey results revealed that combination of candidates that were approved to run gave TT the best chance of winning.

TCB not in the PE has to be looked at under two scenarios. If TCB did not indicate his interest to stand right from the beginning, then the PAP votes would likely go to TT and the opposition votes going to the other two candidates, more to TJS than to TKL. Without the Patrick Tan issue, TT would have won with 60%. Patrick Tan definitely contributed to several lost votes. I would put it at 10 to 15%. These would likely go more to TKL, the next closest candidate and less to TJS. TT would still probably win but with less than 50% of the votes. On the other hand, if after declaring his candidacy TCB withdrew before nomination with all the history there regarding Patrick Tan and between TCB and TJS intact, I think TJS would get hardly any votes from the TCB block with TKL the benefaciary. Some votes would also be spoilt. What TJS did to TCB was unforgivable.

 

[zhihau]

Without the Patrick Tan issue, TT would have won with 60%.

even without PT issue, i reckoned President Tan could garner at most 50% of the votes :o:o:o

 

[Windsor]

TCB not in the PE has to be looked at under two scenarios. If TCB did not indicate his interest to stand right from the beginning, then the PAP votes would likely go to TT and the opposition votes going to the other two candidates, more to TJS than to TKL. Without the Patrick Tan issue, TT would have won with 60%. Patrick Tan definitely contributed to several lost votes. I would put it at 10 to 15%. These would likely go more to TKL, the next closest candidate and less to TJS. TT would still probably win but with less than 50% of the votes. On the other hand, if after declaring his candidacy TCB withdrew before nomination with all the history there regarding Patrick Tan and between TCB and TJS intact, I think TJS would get hardly any votes from the TCB block with TKL the benefaciary. Some votes would also be spoilt. What TJS did to TCB was unforgivable.

A long time ago before the PE, SBF members has already considered TKL has a "horse no run" case. Yet his minions and supporters deluded themselves that he is a front runner. TKL himself appeared in this forum and accused us of maligning him and therefore reducing his chances to win. He has also made it a point that he will sue if we continue saying bad things about him.

He is a professional statistician, yet he cannot draw a conclusion to save his life. I blamed him and still cursed him for the lost opportunity to snook the PAP. I hope he will not a get a good night's sleep for the rest of his miserable life.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

If TCB had withdrawn from the race and it was a 3 way fight between TT, TJS and TKL, ask yourselves where TCB's votes would have gone. My belief is that TJS would have picked up a good portion... enough to oust TT. I could be wrong. I'm not insisting I'm right. All I'm doing is offering my analysis.

I don't think that's right. TCB was the only candidate in PE2011 that appealed both the pro PAP and anti PAP camps, and was representative of the population as a whole.

It is therefore more reasonable to assume that had TCB not contested, the votes he garnered would have been split between TT, TJS and TKL in the ratio 35:25:5. Of course this is just a guess, but I firmly believe TT would have gotten at least 50% of TCB's votes. He would then have won PE2011 outright.

 

[Fook Seng]

A long time ago before the PE, SBF members has already considered TKL has a "horse no run" case. Yet his minions and supporters deluded themselves that he is a front runner. TKL himself appeared in this forum and accused us of maligning him and therefore reducing his chances to win. He has also made it a point that he will sue if we continue saying bad things about him.

He is a professional statistician, yet he cannot draw a conclusion to save his life. I blamed him and still cursed him for the lost opportunity to snook the PAP. I hope he will not a get a good night's sleep for the rest of his miserable life.

I too feel that he is non-electable. As long as there is another acceptable candidate, he won't get it. He will get the votes if the other alternative means a switch to the other extreme.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

TCB not in the PE has to be looked at under two scenarios. If TCB did not indicate his interest to stand right from the beginning, then the PAP votes would likely go to TT and the opposition votes going to the other two candidates, more to TJS than to TKL. Without the Patrick Tan issue, TT would have won with 60%. Patrick Tan definitely contributed to several lost votes. I would put it at 10 to 15%.

Patrick Tan was not a major issue. He damaged TT by at most 3-4%. Of course, if you say that 3-4% is a good 1/10 of the total votes TT got and hence is significant, I guess you'd be right.

Had TCB not contested, TT would have gotten around 50%. Not a convincing win -- you need a loony like TKL to take away a few percentage pts of TJS's votes in order to let TT have a clear win. That was the dual purpose to TKL -- to ensure TT wins no matter whether or not TCB contests.

The moment TT stepped into the ring, he had all-round endorsement from all of PAP's cronies, who barked with one synchronous voice. His percentage was more or less fixed already, given his mild electoral speeches which contained no surprises and which toed the Govt line perfectly.

What TJS did to TCB was unforgivable.

I fully agree. I will not forget that.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

even without PT issue, i reckoned President Tan could garner at most 50% of the votes :o:o:o

He is not my President. But yes, I agree on the statistic you cited (or guessed).

 

[zhihau]

He is not my President. But yes, I agree on the statistic you cited (or guessed).

heheh... i didn't vote for him either :p:p:p

 

[GoldenDragon]

Led by someone who wears pink shirts, crosses his legs at the knees and walks funny. :o

.............. and his wife thau ciak?

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

BY having TCB and TT in the race, the PAP ensured that either one of them would win. All this talk about PAP having factions is frivolous thought. The PAPies had two eggs in the basket instead of one. It's as simple as that. There was no way that TJS and TKL would win should TCB and TT be in the race. If only one of TCB and TT were in the race then it would have been just as tricky but the PAPies would only be able to place a single bet on the table. With TCB and TT both in the race, the PAPies ensured that they had two bites at the cake.

 

[kukubird58]

Re: He Planned All These

do u think that pap is leading SG on the wrong road?

hahaha...Happy New Year and i thought i should give my kuku views on New Year day.
the only certainty in life is death....and the grass is always greener on the other side......in the real world, there is no absolute fairness.
we only need to take a look at ourself.....how we are forced to adapt to our family and work lives...
how much BS we practised regularly to our loved ones, family, friends and colleagues.
I think enough of all these double standards.

Of course, pappee is not perfect and many of their policies can be fine tuned to benfit more of us.
But, i can said very confidently that Singapore will not crumble as long as papee /government of the day keeps a tight rein on extremists (communalism and religious) groups.

the rest of the issues raised are par for gossips and tcss in the pubs, kopitiams, on-line forums, campaigning during GE; etc.

 

[Cruxx]

Re: He Planned All These

I'm an ardent anarcho-capitalist but I think Sinkies are really brainwashed by the PAPpies to believe that a system that seeks to abolish inequality is somehow a "threat" to society