BS about the BE effect

[TwitSeng]

the effect where got so strong

 

[po2wq]

The PAP's official explaination about their shock PE loss is that it is the BE effect ...

The PAP are going deny it and ban all talk about it internally. This is because if the change has indeed happened, they will need a complete change of top leadership to stay relevant. Because this cannot even be discussed, they will be completely not ready for 2016:

u want ah loon 2 resign? ... not wen his papa is stil there ...


dun b 2 happy wif tis result n xtrapolate 2 2016 ... dey stil got sumting dat is holding peasants by ze neck ...

 

[alantan27]

Yes, the BE Effect excuse smacks of lame desperation to cover the gaping hole that has been ripped open.

The PAP is going to be in upheavals. The loss is a historic, shock loss. Can we compare this to Anson? Maybe, maybe not. Anson was almost an inevitability as there is bound to be a day when a seat is lost to the opposition. PE2013 is a little different. It is the continuation of the process that began in 2011 when WP took a GRC. That was the trigger that started the movement.

Normalization of Singapore politics is going to take place faster, and much sooner, than any of us could have anticipated.

Anson was not totally a shock as JBJ only lost by 1000 votes back in telok B in 1980. 2013 was rally a big shock, even shocker than 1991

 

[aurvandil]

The PAP is far from finished. The question the PAP need to ask themselves is if they have got the correct PM to lead them. If they continue to follow PM Lee, then PAP is likely to collapse.

During this BE, I gave KJ some advice. I will now give PM Lee some advice.

You need to heal the PAP. The only way you can do this is announce your retirement and pave the way for a new leader to take your place. You need to reach out to the good people who you sidelined after you took over from PM Goh. They are a vast untapped resource which you can no longer afford to ignore. If you do not do this, they will become your worst political opponents.

Like KJ, I do not expect PM Lee to heed my advice. He will only see the wisdom with the benefit of hindsight.

u want ah loon 2 resign? ... not wen his papa is stil there ...


dun b 2 happy wif tis result n xtrapolate 2 2016 ... dey stil got sumting dat is holding peasants by ze neck ...

 

[enterprise2]

The PAP is far from finished. The question the PAP need to ask themselves is if they have got the correct PM to lead them. If they continue to follow PM Lee, then PAP is likely to collapse.

During this BE, I gave KJ some advice. I will now give PM Lee some advice.

You need to heal the PAP. The only way you can do this is announce your retirement and pave the way for a new leader to take your place. You need to reach out to the good people who you sidelined after you took over from PM Goh. They are a vast untapped resource which you can no longer afford to ignore. If you do not do this, they will become your worst political opponents.

Like KJ, I do not expect PM Lee to heed my advice. He will only see the wisdom with the benefit of hindsight.

The only way PAP can win back my support is that they listen, really listen and don't act like they know best, and think Singaporeans first and not always look at the so-called big picture....and another thing the obscene salaries they have been paying themselves...that got to go.It's still too high by the man in the street reckoning.

 

[jw5]

The BE effect is the BS that they spin to try and convince themselves that they are doing a good job and the majority of ordinary Singaporeans still want them to be the government, but at the same time want more alternative voices in parliament.

This BE could mean that more and more ordinary Singaporeans are taking their heads out of the sand and realising them for what they are.

 

[wwabbit]

Agreed. Bull shit and bull crap.

When that certain TCH got parachuted in the Marine Parade By-Election on the coat tails of GCT in 1992, where is this talk about the BE effect as we understand it today? In fact, it was spew as the people's endorsement of the PAP and the PM and his legitimacy

PE effect can cut both ways, as and when convenient.

The BE effect was also evident in the Marine Parade By Election.

Marine Parade PAP votes in GE1991 = 77.25%
Marine Parade PAP votes in BE1992 = 72.94%

 

[metalmickey]

The BE effect was also evident in the Marine Parade By Election.

Marine Parade PAP votes in GE1991 = 77.25%
Marine Parade PAP votes in BE1992 = 72.94%

The only part of this statement that I agree with is the general point that there is a by-election effect.

Otherwise this is a pretty lousy example. In 1991, the PAP was head on with the Singapore Justice Party, which is, if you recall, a party that makes the Reform Party look good, and which is also a main component in what is today the SDA.

In 1992, they were up against the SDP, which was the premier opposition party of the day. Chee Soon Juan at that point had yet to make a fool of himself with his hunger strike and other crazy antics.

Also, in 1991, it was, if you remember, the "by-election general election". Opposition candidates were fielded in very few seats so as to assure everybody that PAP would never lose power whatever the outcome of the elections. So in a way you are actually comparing two by-elections.

Except that I don't believe that there is a by-election effect during a general elections.

 

[jswyodn]

I don't believe the by-election effect is that strong either. The vote percentage for the Hougang BE, while still a comfortable margin, was nevertheless a swing of 3% towards the PAP. Png isn't exactly inferior to Yaw, and although Yaw's scandal probably did a little damage, it is unlikely to account for too big a margin.

 

[metalmickey]

@metalmickey. Interesting times for both parties. The PAP has an uphill task. The change needed is so fundamental it will seem the a quadruple amputation with prosthetic limbs fitted on afterwords. The WP now has to realize they have to move faster than they envisaged. They are already the alternative party and they have no choice in the matter. Or maybe LTK already knows this , going by his statement that WP can no longer consider opposition unity. Who said our politics is dull ?

The real tragedy for Singapore is that as early as 1991, the PAP could have started its transition to an effective, working democracy in Singapore instead of all that nonsense that we've seen over the last 20 years - suing, dirty election tricks, obsfucation of facts, etc etc. Functioning democracy is something that has to be built.

Now instead of taking our own time to build democracy, our hand is forced. We are forced to build democracy in double quick time. We might not succeed or rise up to that challenge.

There are people in the opposition who think that LKY doesn't have anything to claim credit for, who think that Singapore would have succeeded anyway. But they are the same people who think that his son has the power to screw up Singapore. Obviously this is bullshit. There are good things about our system that need to get retained and others that need to get changed. My big worry is that we won't be able to tell which is which. If we change too fast, or if we are forced to change too fast, we might not do a great job at it. Or we might just end up destroying everything that was worth salvaging from the PAP system in the first place, in our haste to get to a new regime. That would be a shame.

 

[6000kmApart]

The BE effect was also evident in the Marine Parade By Election.

Marine Parade PAP votes in GE1991 = 77.25%
Marine Parade PAP votes in BE1992 = 72.94%

There is a by-election effect but is it a deciding factor in PAP's lost? The answer IMHO is NO. However, during the post BE press conference, TCH kept harping on the by election effect, as though he attributed the defeat mainly to it, instead of the PAP's failure to address the pertinent issues that were elucidated during the last GE. They lost in a clean fight and that to them should be alarming.

 

[glockman]

LTK has stressed there was a BE effect. :(

"You can't take the by-election result as one that is going to be the trend in the future," he told reporters before the WP went on a thank you parade with new MP elect Lee Li Lian, who won with 54.5 per cent of the vote.

"It is a by-election, it is not a general election," said Mr Low, adding that voters did not have to worry that the Government would be voted out.

 

[6000kmApart]

LTK has stressed there was a BE effect. :(

"You can't take the by-election result as one that is going to be the trend in the future," he told reporters before the WP went on a thank you parade with new MP elect Lee Li Lian, who won with 54.5 per cent of the vote.

"It is a by-election, it is not a general election," said Mr Low, adding that voters did not have to worry that the Government would be voted out.

Not surprised by LTK's reply. If I were him i would also say the same. I will not say the real hard truths behind the win (or lost to the PAP) because I would like PAP to behave the same come GE2016, so i can beat the hell out of them? Would you show hands to your opponents? You could see he was reticent about saying too much in the press conference so not to give away too much, he even complimented the PAP govt! This I call politics transcended.

 

[metalmickey]

LTK has stressed there was a BE effect. :(

"You can't take the by-election result as one that is going to be the trend in the future," he told reporters before the WP went on a thank you parade with new MP elect Lee Li Lian, who won with 54.5 per cent of the vote.

"It is a by-election, it is not a general election," said Mr Low, adding that voters did not have to worry that the Government would be voted out.

I can think of at least two reasons why LTK said that. One of them is to lull the PAP into a false sense of complacency.

The other reason why LTK does not want to declare this as a trend, I feel, is that he genuinely doesn't want to form a government as yet. Yes, he wants more seats. Yes, he's happy taking the 2/3 majority away. But form a government?

Unfortunately the difference between 1/3 of parliament and half of parliament is very thin. Expressed as a percentage of the popular vote, it is only 5%. That 5% range is what most of us want - PAP without supermajority, but PAP in government. It is very precarious. Maybe topple the PAP when they feel they're ready. But you know running Singapore is no joke.

 

[scroobal]

I agree. There will factors such as BE effect, tactical voting, hard ground work etc. as long as the PAP does not listen and continue with their arrogant streak, they will keep losing ground.

Imagine the Prime Minister only initiated a review of Aimgate hours after sylvia lim moved a motion on that day. He also found it convenient to threaten Alex Au rather than answer the question or provide clarity. If you know Lau Ping Sum, you know will know that he will not move until the PM tells him so. So Aimgate would not be possible without PM say so. Teo Ho Ping is merely an office boy in the scheme of things.

The only way PAP can win back my support is that they listen, really listen and don't act like they know best, and think Singaporeans first and not always look at the so-called big picture....and another thing the obscene salaries they have been paying themselves...that got to go.It's still too high by the man in the street reckoning.

 

[metalmickey]

Yes, I call it the iPad effect. Since iPad reached a significant chunk of retirees, these people are liberated from the state controlled media. They start to read alternative opinion like sammyboy and saw the light.

There was the internet effect since the www became popular in 1995. Then around the turn of the century there were the chatboards. SBF was already active around 2001. Then by 2006 it was around the time that blogs started getting popular. Then in 2008 it was Facebook. Then it was all the mobile devices: iPhones, iPads, etc etc. Maybe one day there will be a chip implanted into my backside so that I can surf sbf while sleeping. I might ask Koh Poh Koon for help.

 

[metalmickey]

Various explanations have been put forward to explain the shock result.

1. Rise of the WP, through the brand naming
2. Political inexperience of Koh Pooh Koon
3. Tactical voting, nullifying the multi-corner fight effect
4. Difference in likeability of the two main contenders WP and PAP
5. PAP not being able to solve the problems of Singaporeans
6. Consequence of WP displaying that it is
7. By election effect.

All these explanations are plausible, but they are not enough. Crucially, a lot of LLL's votes came from people who voted for the PAP the last time around. I'm talking about more than 10%. What happened in those two years that got the 10% to switch sides? One of the most important explanations comes from Ravi Philemon's facebook note, shown below:

https://www.facebook.com/raviphilemon/posts/10151620333243277

Contrast the way that the YSL and the Michael Palmer sagas have been handled by the respective parties. For YSL, there was a lot of drama, but people were waiting patiently for WP to solve the problem, other than idiots like Goh Meng Seng who were prematurely blasting the "secretiveness" of WP. Eventually they solved the problem in a satisfactory but not exemplary manner. They sacked YSL not for the affair but not being accountable, and left a lot of questions hanging in the air.

For Michael Palmer, it seemed like the PAP was even more strict with him. Around the same time that the affair came to light, they sacked Palmer. But they went further, and they hung the People's Association out to dry, all but slut shaming Laurel Ong.

So who were the 10%? I think that the Ravi Philemon article says it all. They were the grassroots people on the PAP side, who decided to punish the PAP for their betrayal. As much as people like you on the opposition like to think of the PA and the PAP as one monolithic entity, sometimes they have their spats. We don't know the reasons why Yam Ah Mee quit, but the picture becomes more coherent now: he quit because he was sick and tired that the people's association was hung out to dry. The PAP elite has become so arrogant and detached from reality that they piss off even their own supporters, who immediately knew they had to vote WP to punish the PAP.

The other thing was the choice of candidate. Some people at the PA were unhappy that the PAP did not get a grassroots person from Punggol East to run. In a way this decision was understandable, because to get a Punggol East PA person is basically inviting a lot of criticism from the opposition. But it was another thing that pissed off the PA.

So for me this is the most convincing explanation for the shock result - the PAP fucked the PA, and the PA fucked the PAP back.

 

[6000kmApart]

I reckon the crucial swing is not the abandonment of the PAP by PA/grassroots.

This might result in 3-5% swing. 10% is 3000 voters. Hardcore PA/grassroots (different from hardcore PAP supporters) got so many meh?

 

[metalmickey]

I reckon the crucial swing is not the abandonment of the PAP by PA/grassroots.

This might result in 3-5% swing. 10% is 3000 voters. Hardcore PA/grassroots (different from hardcore PAP supporters) got so many meh?

3-5% is around right. But it is something. It's the difference between the razor thin margin of victory which many people were expecting, and what actually happened. For everything else, that can be accounted for in points 1-7 I listed 2 posts back.

 

[6000kmApart]

3-5% is around right. But it is something. It's the difference between the razor thin margin of victory which many people were expecting, and what actually happened. For everything else, that can be accounted for in points 1-7 I listed 2 posts back.

Yup, agreed.

If WP won by less than say 3%, then the PA/grassroots swing votes would be a crucial factor IMHO. Because, traditionally, this is the core support where PAP would not lose votes from.