BS about the BE effect

[metalmickey]

Yup, agreed.

If WP won by less than say 3%, then the PA/grassroots swing votes would be a crucial factor IMHO. Because, traditionally, this is the core support where PAP would not lose votes from.

And you read that the PA wasn't happy with the PAP, it goes beyond the direct effects of the PA people not voting for him. You forget that there are many people in PA who were in charge of running Dr Koh's campaign, the door to door visits, covering 10000 households in 1 week. If those people were less than committed, and they did a bad job, the indirect effects might be even greater.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

If PAP is going to believe that this is just due to By-election effect, they will be going in for a rude shock of the possibility of losing power in the next GE.

Goh Meng Seng

The PAP's official explaination about their shock PE loss is that it is the BE effect.

After reviewing the qualitative data over the past 9 days, I am not so sure. I believe that something fundamental has changed.

The PAP are going deny it and ban all talk about it internally. This is because if the change has indeed happened, they will need a complete change of top leadership to stay relevant. Because this cannot even be discussed, they will be completely not ready for 2016:

 

[aurvandil]

Stunning as this victory is, it doesn't change my forecast of Singapore's long term political development.

For 2016, only the two thirds majority is under threat.

The absolute majority is only under threat in 2021.

The demographics of Punggol East provided a fast forward preview to 2021 when the P65 who have suffered under the PAP policy mistakes since 1990 form the overwhelming majority. As I had written previously, you cannot erase a lifetime of unhappiness with just a few last minute policy tweaks. We therefore need to prepare for regime change in 2021.

Given how wrong their think tanks were, I expect Gillian and friends to become prophets of doom and shout loudly about how the PAP will fall from power in 2016. It is the safe thing for these think tank to forecast given the way Punggol East turned out. When it doesn't happen, they can then turn around and take credit for having averted disaster by their forecasts and policy recommendations.

If PAP is going to believe that this is just due to By-election effect, they will be going in for a rude shock of the possibility of losing power in the next GE.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[saratogas]

Sincere advice to PM Lee - You need to heal the PAP. The only way you can do this is announce your retirement and pave the way for a new leader to take your place.

This piece of advice will be more effective than any property curbs... Sending the whole sinkie market down... Things will be cheaper again.

 

[metalmickey]

Stunning as this victory is, it doesn't change my forecast of Singapore's long term political development.

For 2016, only the two thirds majority is under threat.

The absolute majority is only under threat in 2021.

The demographics of Punggol East provided a fast forward preview to 2021 when the P65 who have suffered under the PAP policy mistakes since 1990 form the overwhelming majority. As I had written previously, you erase a lifetime of unhappiness with just a few last minute policy tweaks. We therefore need to prepare for regime change in 2021.

Given how wrong their think tanks were, I expect Gillian and friends to become prophets of doom and shout loudly about how the PAP will fall from power in 2016. It is the safe thing for these think tank to forecast given the way Punggol East turned out. When it doesn't happen, they can then turn around and take credit for having averted disaster by their forecasts and policy recommendations.

I don't dispute your timetable. I also think that our relatively long election cycle is pretty dangerous, because large swings that take place after long cycles produce huge shocks which are difficult to manage.

So what we have are different stages:

1. Opposition winning a seat (achieved in Anson 1981)
2. Opposition winning a GRC (achieved in GE 2011)
3. Opposition winning a MCF (achieved in BE 2013)
4. Opposition denying PAP a supermajority
5. Opposition gaining power

There is actually a 6th stage, which is the most difficult of all to achieve. Observe that opposition movements in Japan and Taiwan have managed to take over the government for a few years, before they elect the dominant party (LDP / Kuomingtang) back. The opposition has not grown to become the equal of the dominant party. Ruling the parliament for a few years does not make your country a two party system. Whether we want the opposition to get that far is another thing, but there is another stage beyond merely taking over the cabinet.

 

[Simbian]

I honestly cannot see past stage 5 - there are probably so many skeletons in the closet with respect to TH/GIC and other former state owned properties... *SHUDDER*

From an idealistic point of view, after hitting stage 5, we should start dis-entrenching the establishment/elite and start them to compete against each other and not uniting against the rest of us.

In Singapore, that would mean we start dismantling entrenched behaviour introduced decades ago by the PAP - the practice of parachuting civil servants into the GLCs, reducing the influence of the military industrial complex (yes, even with Singapore being so small, there is one on this island) and many more less savoury things that the mass media does not write about.

 

[kingrant]

Sincere advice to PM Lee - You need to heal the PAP. The only way you can do this is announce your retirement and pave the way for a new leader to take your place.

This piece of advice will be more effective than any property curbs... Sending the whole sinkie market down... Things will be cheaper again.

Wasnt it immed after GE2011, they had a closed door soul searching session where they promised themselves to overhaul themselves?

 

[metalmickey]

I honestly cannot see past stage 5 - there are probably so many skeletons in the closet with respect to TH/GIC and other former state owned properties... *SHUDDER*

From an idealistic point of view, after hitting stage 5, we should start dis-entrenching the establishment/elite and start them to compete against each other and not uniting against the rest of us.

In Singapore, that would mean we start dismantling entrenched behaviour introduced decades ago by the PAP - the practice of parachuting civil servants into the GLCs, reducing the influence of the military industrial complex (yes, even with Singapore being so small, there is one on this island) and many more less savoury things that the mass media does not write about.

In spite of everything, I still believe that Singapore is less corrupt than many other Asian countries. But there is a real concern that a lot of corruption takes place right at the top. All the cronyism that you mentioned.

Regarding the military industrial complex, I saw that Singapore has a higher defence expenditure than Israel. Are you fucking kidding me, Israel actually has to fight wars, and they spend less than us? I can only conclude that the SAF is either managed by morons or Jiak Liao Bees.

The problem with stage 5 is that when opposition politicians get into power, sometimes they don't escape the pitfalls. They get thrown out of office at the next elections for corruption. That happened to Chen Shui Bian who is rotting in jail now. Let's hope that it doesn't happen to our opposition if and when they get in.

 

[Yingge]

The only way PAP can win back my support is that they listen, really listen and don't act like they know best, and think Singaporeans first and not always look at the so-called big picture....and another thing the obscene salaries they have been paying themselves...that got to go.It's still too high by the man in the street reckoning.

The PAP already say so many times that they do listen to people!!! The problem now is that whether they should do it according to what the people says?? Below are the things that the people wants..

1. Stop import FT.
2. Bring down the property cost range from 30% to 50%
3. Take away COE
4. Take away ERP
5. Tax the rich at 50% or more
6. Cut President, Ministers and MPs pay by another 70%
7. Allow smoker to smoke everywhere.(I am a smoker)
8. Reduce tobacco price.
9. Reduce transport cost. (MRT and bus price at 30 cents per trip wherever place you go)
10. Reduce renter cost.
11. Reduce medical cost.. (Free will be better)
12. Take away GST..

So lets hope PAP will listen to us and do all the above..

 

[watchman8]

Wasnt it immed after GE2011, they had a closed door soul searching session where they promised themselves to overhaul themselves?

They did the soul searching and that lasted for a few months until after the presidential election where they thought they saw their salvation, multi corner fights.

Punggol east will send the pap back to their drawing boards. I expect more soul searching and bumbling around as they step up on wooing the voters. At the same time, I expect WP to step up too as next GE is nearing, and WP will now criticize more as pap will have less time to rectify policy errors before next GE.

 

[watchman8]

The PAP already say so many times that they do listen to people!!! The problem now is that whether they should do it according to what the people says?? Below are the things that the people wants..

1. Stop import FT.
2. Bring down the property cost range from 30% to 50%
3. Take away COE
4. Take away ERP
5. Tax the rich at 50% or more
6. Cut President, Ministers and MPs pay by another 70%
7. Allow smoker to smoke everywhere.(I am a smoker)
8. Reduce tobacco price.
9. Reduce transport cost. (MRT and bus price at 30 cents per trip wherever place you go)
10. Reduce renter cost.
11. Reduce medical cost.. (Free will be better)

So lets hope PAP will listen to us and do all the above..

Keep dreaming. Not going to happen with current pap. Note that TCH comment on night of election lost. He says pap will get back to work for long term good of Singaporeans, ie nothing will change, except maybe the communications part of it.

 

[watchman8]

Stunning as this victory is, it doesn't change my forecast of Singapore's long term political development.

For 2016, only the two thirds majority is under threat.

The absolute majority is only under threat in 2021.

The demographics of Punggol East provided a fast forward preview to 2021 when the P65 who have suffered under the PAP policy mistakes since 1990 form the overwhelming majority. As I had written previously, you cannot erase a lifetime of unhappiness with just a few last minute policy tweaks. We therefore need to prepare for regime change in 2021.

Given how wrong their think tanks were, I expect Gillian and friends to become prophets of doom and shout loudly about how the PAP will fall from power in 2016.

Agree with your timeline, but I think you overlooked the iPad enabled baby boomers. Many are on the Internet reading unfiltered views, and they are bringing these discussion to their friends who remained outside of Internet chatter.

2016 will still some voters worry about freak election results, so they will help ensure majority seats going pap. But in 2021, with more opposition MPs for a few years, people will get comfortable with concept of pap losing 2/3 majority.

It is sad and worrying that pap is actually relying on Gillian koh type of trash for their read on the ground. This goes to highlight how pap leadership continues to live in its own bubble.

 

[aurvandil]

It is not statistically likely in 2016 because of demographics ... the core PAP support base of the pre-65 generation are still alive in considerable numbers. It is only in 2021 that natural mortality will claim enough of the pre-65 to enable the regime change to take place.

On the smart phone/ipad revolution, it has an impact for sure but I don't think it will be large enough to overcome demographics and bring forward the change to 2016.

Agree with your timeline, but I think you overlooked the iPad enabled baby boomers. Many are on the Internet reading unfiltered views, and they are bringing these discussion to their friends who remained outside of Internet chatter.

 

[wwabbit]

The name of Pritam Singh's blog - Singapore 2025, I think gives a clue about the Worker's Party's timetable to form a new government. That is in 3 GEs instead of the 2 GEs many here seem to be hoping for. While it would be nice to get it done in 2 GEs, I think 3 GEs is more realistic.

The Worker's Party looks like it is worried about expanding beyond their means and treating this as a slow and steady race, which is why they've been spending the past 2 years consolidating in Aljunied and limiting grassroots outreach in the neighboring GRCs. I suspect they will be expanding the grassroots program soon though, so we will see the clues from there how many seats they intend to go for in the next GE.

 

[Liquigas]

I honestly cannot see past stage 5 - there are probably so many skeletons in the closet with respect to TH/GIC and other former state owned properties... *SHUDDER*

The new government taking over will have the books of TH and GIC opened for inspection and audit as part of handing over process. Let us hope that everyting is still intact and in good order. Also, citizens may at the same time pressurized the new government to release all CPF savings back to them at age 55 and not have to wait till 65 to do so. If the reserves are really depleted (pray not) then the new government is going to have a hard time ....

 

[Seee3]

The name of Pritam Singh's blog - Singapore 2025, I think gives a clue about the Worker's Party's timetable to form a new government. ...

2025 is the magic year, first surfaced by HYC in his study on aging population some 20 years ago. Based on demography of our population, there will be about 1 million over age 65. Currently, the ratio of working population (15-64 age) to aged (over 65 age) is about 7 : 1 and our population has already increased to 5 million. I hope that is not their reasoning on the so-called "critical mass" where our population needs to be 7 million, (just to maintain a working : aged ratio of about 5 : 1). How true is it that we need a ratio of at least 5 : 1 to support the aged? Mathematical cum empirical data from other countries support such claim. Probably that is why they extend retirement to 70 which will increase the working age group and depress the aged group so that the ratio will increase - statistical bluff.

Will increasing the ratio through import of new young citizen to increase this support ratio help the future aged noting that there is no family tie between the new young and the future aged. The only link is through the govt to redistribute wealth.

Personally, I feel that the way out is to re-educate the "aging". Stop the property craze mindset of getting rich the easy way or govt share handout - all initiated by GCT. Life won't be the same again. We have lost 1 whole generation due to the lacking in our education system who can't become business leader like Korea. Instead our young wants to get rich fast by becoming investor banker, property agent.... I feel that it is the system and aspiration that produce top brain, not critical mass, as proclaimed by some who constantly cites China as example for having top performers because of their huge population base.

If WP has been following those reports, they will probably be preparing for the impact of 2025.

 

[6000kmApart]

They did the soul searching and that lasted for a few months until after the presidential election where they thought they saw their salvation, multi corner fights.

Punggol east will send the pap back to their drawing boards. I expect more soul searching and bumbling around as they step up on wooing the voters. At the same time, I expect WP to step up too as next GE is nearing, and WP will now criticize more as pap will have less time to rectify policy errors before next GE.

One of the outcomes of the aftershock PE 2013 is PAP might find it difficult to get candidates to run after the ignominious defeat of a hand-picked elite. Who wants to be a loser and seen as the "enemy of the people"?

Also, one point to note, some in the PAP actually think that they have had done enough and worked hard for the people and the people (residents of PE) has not reciprocated with their votes. They actually think the people are the problem and not them creating problems for the country with their unpopular, elitist and flawed policies...

http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/01/27/a-historic-loss-for-the-pap/
the author for the above article is either incredibly deluded and writing from the ivory tower...

 

[glockman]

I can think of at least two reasons why LTK said that. One of them is to lull the PAP into a false sense of complacency.

The other reason why LTK does not want to declare this as a trend, I feel, is that he genuinely doesn't want to form a government as yet. Yes, he wants more seats. Yes, he's happy taking the 2/3 majority away. But form a government?

Unfortunately the difference between 1/3 of parliament and half of parliament is very thin. Expressed as a percentage of the popular vote, it is only 5%. That 5% range is what most of us want - PAP without supermajority, but PAP in government. It is very precarious. Maybe topple the PAP when they feel they're ready. But you know running Singapore is no joke.

Yes, those are the only two possible reasons. But I doubt he is seeking to lull the PAP into a false sense of complacency, although I secretly hope it is so. One never knows, considering the duds populating the ranks of the PAP.

The second reason is probably true. He fears the WP becoming a runaway freight train crashing the PAP to bits in all future elections, and then finding themselves called upon to form the govt. As for now, if the WP is not ready yet, thats fine. But he had better start shaping up the WP, or move aside to allow someone else to lead. 2025 is not a long way away.

 

[Pek Kim Lui]

Wasnt it immed after GE2011, they had a closed door soul searching session where they promised themselves to overhaul themselves?

They did, only to remember that they sold their soul for wealth and power and decided it was easier to just give the impression of overhauling than actually doing it.

 

[watchman8]

Yes, those are the only two possible reasons. But I doubt he is seeking to lull the PAP into a false sense of complacency, although I secretly hope it is so. One never knows, considering the duds populating the ranks of the PAP.

The second reason is probably true. He fears the WP becoming a runaway freight train crashing the PAP to bits in all future elections, and then finding themselves called upon to form the govt. As for now, if the WP is not ready yet, thats fine. But he had better start shaping up the WP, or move aside to allow someone else to lead. 2025 is not a long way away.

When you are not ready to kill the tiger, don't go near the tiger's den.