The PAP's official explaination about their shock PE loss is that it is the BE effect.
After reviewing the qualitative data over the past 9 days, I am not so sure. I believe that something fundamental has changed.
The PAP are going deny it and ban all talk about it internally. This is because if the change has indeed happened, they will need a complete change of top leadership to stay relevant. Because this cannot even be discussed, they will be completely not ready for 2016:
You are right. Something fundamental has changed and it is extremely worrying.
With a giant share of the Chinese votes, the WP has shown that it can win elections on its own steam without the support of the minorities. It won about 70% of the 22K Chinese votes that were up for grabs leaving the PAP with a dismal 30% of the Chinese votes and having to rely on the remaining 7K votes or so from the minorities to avoid an even more humiliating defeat and scoreline.
In 1963, Singapore joined the Malaysian Federation. One of the main reason was that it needed the Malaysian government's help to flush out the Chinese Communists.
After two years of intense bickering over "Malaysian-Malaysia", Singapore was kicked out of the Malaysian Federation. Back then, the PAP, under Lee, was determined that Singapore would not go down the path of Malaysia and that multiracialism would be a sacrosanct and inviolable cornerstone of Singapore politics and society.
In the early 80s, LKY began to change. He started dabbling with this once sacrosanct and inviolable cornerstone. Singapore underwent a period of sinicisation which intensified after the 12.9% vote swing in the December 1984 general elections.
LKY ignored the ISD's security files and reports which pointed to Low's predisposition towards being a Chinese Chauvinist. Lee's hatred for JBJ and his determination to destroy him overrode his better judgement. It saw him riding and supporting the Nantah and Chinese Chauvinist Trojan horse lurking in the WP that was Low Thia Khiang.
That Nantah Chinese Chauvinist Trojan horse has repaid Lee but has gone rogue. Lee and the PAP can no longer steer this Chinese Chauvinist. He has come back to bite LKY and the PAP in the butt. He has shown that he can win elections on his own steam without the support of the minorities. The minority card was a card that LKY had always used thinking that it would be sufficient to get the PAP across the line even if the Chinese votes were split against the PAP's favour.
The PE by-election results is a startling and worrying development for Singapore. It signals that the sinicisation of Singapore has been an overwhelming success.
The English-eds, made up of the various races and which is the only "neutral" group that can help keep the fairness and the peace between the competing demands from the Chinese Chauvinists and minorities, is now a marginalised group.
As I said, the WP Chinese Chauvinists and WP race bigots will be further emboldened with this PE by-election results. Expect things to snap, and a very troubled future and a very different world for Singapore down the road if the PE by-election results is not simply a freak, localised, outlier result but is a fundamental change and is repeated in the next general election.