Is LHL Serious about Re-taking Aljunied GRC?

[TracyTan866]

i added 5% for the oppositions in all constituencies for the 2011 GE. Potong Pasir, Joo Chiat, Punggol East and East Coast ( 8 seats ) would fall to them, the latter 3 would be won only by razor thin margin ( 50% to 51% ). the oppositions apparently would win 45% of votes and get 14 seats, 16% of parliament.

the oppostitions need to work harder and win many more votes. their popular vote into the 40% to 45% range might not translate into the expected share of seats won.

If pap continues with its talk only and no action strategy, it's possible to get a 10% vote swing. With a 10% swing, the following are likely to fall into opposition hands:

1. East Coast GRC
2. Tampines GRC
3. B/TP GRC
4. MP GRC
5. H/BT GRC
6. M/Kallang GRC
7. JC SMC
8. PP SMC
9. Pioneer SMC
10. SengKang West SMS
11. Punggol East SMC
12. Mountbatten SMC

with Aljunied GRC and HG SMC, the Opposition will get 45 MPs with a 10% swing

 

[sleaguepunter]

More often than not these days, they eventually realise that the parachute is actually a knapsack.

next GE we dunno lah but in GE2011, only one "airborne" parachute failed. Even the siao charboi who was laden branded handbags land successfully.

the only place pap will try airborne are the grcs but even there they were introduce early to residents. SMCs not chance for newbies. hougang was strange, machiam given a bye by the pap as desmond choo really too raw to take on LTK.

 

[TracyTan866]

More often than not these days, they eventually realise that the parachute is actually a knapsack.

any worthy politician will want to win an election and gain his Parliamentary seat on his own, not under the skirt of another politician

 

[TracyTan866]

next GE we dunno lah but in GE2011, only one "airborne" parachute failed. Even the siao charboi who was laden branded handbags land successfully.

the only place pap will try airborne are the grcs but even there they were introduce early to residents. SMCs not chance for newbies. hougang was strange, machiam given a bye by the pap as desmond choo really too raw to take on LTK.

GE 2011 shows the dearth and poor quality of PAP candidates. In earlier PAP days, and under LKY's watch, candidates like TPL, Steve Tan, Puthucheary wont have gone past the first tea session. No wonder NEH was replaced

 

[brocoli]

I disagree with you.

What do Singaporeans know abt the pap in 1965? Did they know who was LKY? who was GKS, TCH, EWB, OPB, ? they were no bodies. Yet Singaporeans in in their trust voted the pap in 1965 and we had the best team so far. The present pap team, despite the hype, pales in comparison. What we are now is the result of the first pap team. in fact we are in decline under the present pap leadership.

You dont think LTK, SL, CSM, YSL, AO, GEK, etc are comparable to LHL, MBT, MKS, RL? can the WP be worse than the pap clowns?

I have faith in the Opposition ...Singaporeans dont know their depth because the MSM dont publicise the Opposition. But the Oppostion has moral standard and character...which the pap lacks. So I rather give my vote to the Opposition.

Also, we have a strong Civil Service. They run Singapore. So be assured that we will be in good hands.

Why do singaporeans trust TCJ, OYK rather than CSM, SL? Because they have been brainwashed by the pap and SG medis to believe that PAP candidates can be trusted...but look at MBT, RL, WKS, TPL, Steve Tan and FMH...all talk and form but no substance and no compassion and no moral standard.

So let's dont just read the Straits times and trust them to give us the gospel truth. Let's open our minds and explore for the good of Singapore.

Dont let the pap and SG media demonise the Opposition.

We have seen the moral decline of the pap and we must check them or else SG will continue to decline morally and socially

A

please got and tell the rest of the sinkies... you are preaching to the converted here and wank yourself here

of course what you want doesnt matter. it wahts singaporeans want that matters.

KJ is detached from reality? and you are better than KJ? who r u to judge that WP is conservative. they are well liked by Aljunied residents and that's what matters...

you really dunno shit..... yes its whats singaporeans want that matters, not what you think or what i think they want...

KJ isnt detached from reality? who in this forum dun think they know better than KJ? kee chiu!!!
he singlehandedly diestroy the largest opp alliance together with desmond Lim...

Who am I to judge that WP is conservative. any1 with eyes can see they are conservative? why do you think people used to call them Wayang Party?
why do you think they dun even recruit people in the west ???

have you even spoken to a single WP member ??? do you even know their mentality

they are well liked by Aljunied residents so??? I also like a lot of people so ???? does it mean those outside aljunied can trust the rest of WP to be MP or minister ?

if everything is so rosy as you painted why only 1 GRC fall??? and now within 6 month the situation have change so dramatically that we are seeing a change in Govt???

you are either a troll or a PAP IB tring to lull the opp supporters into complancy ...... no1 can be so politically naive

please go and read the ground... before you shoot your mouth here spreading misinfo....

what is you are forecasting is 10-12% swing in votes across the entire population going against the grain 50 years of brainwashing and horde of new citizenship all too eager to vote PAP .....

 

[sleaguepunter]

If pap continues with its talk only and no action strategy, it's possible to get a 10% vote swing. With a 10% swing, the following are likely to fall into opposition hands:

1. East Coast GRC hopeful
2. Tampines GRC not likely, especially is nsp contest there. MBT will be forgotten then. Heng and Baey can connect with residents. Tough
3. B/TP GRC not likely, have been a pap safe seat, shortie will be history then, it will be a new slate
4. MP GRC not sure, as this grc turn into a sideshow due to the duel of 2 charbois. what happen in GE11 cannot be use as reference in next GE.
5. H/BT GRC that will have to count on sdp gaining the trust of the residents of hdb estate.
6. M/Kallang GRC chinatown, kampong glam have been pap safe seats forever and also WP have problem convincing ppl who stay in bukit timah.
7. JC SMC will be absorb into a grc, most likely mp.
8. PP SMC confirm absorb into bishan grc
9. Pioneer SMC pap safe seat
10. SengKang West SMS both sengkang west and punggol east result was a rude shock to pap as previous erections result always return ard 65-70% for pap so to win by 50+% show how strong WP branding was despite both WP candidates are newbies and no outreach programs ever done in these two smcs prior to the erection
11. Punggol East SMC
12. Mountbatten SMC not sure as nsp lawyer result no that great.

As much as EC have the best loser result for WP, i still think WP should concentrate in Sengkang Estates. The area should be everything south of the SLE-TPE expressway all the way to areas connected to AMK and Aljunied GRCs. There no way pasir-ris punggol grc to survive in next ge as punggol is having a population boom due to new flats completed or completing in the next 5 years. Even with no preparation for GE2011, WP still have a respectable 40+% in SKW and PE. The fact the highly popular mixed blood palmer majority fell from 70+% to only 50+% by an unknown WP female candidate show how popular WP is over there. So pushing for more effort in the next 5 yrs, there a good chance WP can achieve a good result. furthermore, if pasir-ris punggol breakup, then a ministar will have to be find to helm the new grc, so who will want to give up their safe grc to helm a new grc contested by WP?

if lhl have half a brain, then he should have indentify which area are prone to opposition and chop them off as smc. It better to ger rid of the cancerous estate and lose only a couple of SMCs rather than lose a 4-6 seats grc. By attaching the rebellious HG ave 8 to AMK and HG st 51/buangkok crescent to pasir ris punggol is only a botch job and may put the whole grc in danger. if WP suicide team can get 37% without HG ave 8, it will be interesting to see a new WP team challenge AMK with the WP leaning HG ave 8 in AMK grc.

 

[brocoli]

As much as EC have the best loser result for WP, i still think WP should concentrate in Sengkang Estates. The area should be everything south of the SLE-TPE expressway all the way to areas connected to AMK and Aljunied GRCs. There no way pasir-ris punggol grc to survive in next ge as punggol is having a population boom due to new flats completed or completing in the next 5 years. Even with no preparation for GE2011, WP still have a respectable 40+% in SKW and PE. The fact the highly popular mixed blood palmer majority fell from 70+% to only 50+% by an unknown WP female candidate show how popular WP is over there. So pushing for more effort in the next 5 yrs, there a good chance WP can achieve a good result. furthermore, if pasir-ris punggol breakup, then a ministar will have to be find to helm the new grc, so who will want to give up their safe grc to helm a new grc contested by WP?

if lhl have half a brain, then he should have indentify which area are prone to opposition and chop them off as smc. It better to ger rid of the cancerous estate and lose only a couple of SMCs rather than lose a 4-6 seats grc. By attaching the rebellious HG ave 8 to AMK and HG st 51/buangkok crescent to pasir ris punggol is only a botch job and may put the whole grc in danger. if WP suicide team can get 37% without HG ave 8, it will be interesting to see a new WP team challenge AMK with the WP leaning HG ave 8 in AMK grc.

dun also forget Sengkang/Punggol got a lot of new Citizen, no different from Pioneer, they may just win it for PAP

 

[Candide]

In my personal and working life, I have learnt to appreciate the need to have at least an unwavering optimist in an environment, be it at home or office. It helps to make a sometimes "unbearable" environment more bearable.

 

[sleaguepunter]

dun also forget Sengkang/Punggol got a lot of new Citizen, no different from Pioneer, they may just win it for PAP

everywhere also have new citizens. and because they are citizens, they also kenna screw in the same way by the pap.

i admit sengkang a lot of kelings but not all are citizen. Mostly likely on husband is citizen while wife and kids on dependent pass. one vote per household, so they may not really as damaging as we thought them to be.

 

[Liquigas]

dun also forget Sengkang/Punggol got a lot of new Citizen, no different from Pioneer, they may just win it for PAP

Other than new citizens, PAP can always rely on its traditional vote bank for votes - people working in government departments and government linked companies. Do you really expect a school teacher, a nurse, a police officer or a SingTel technician to vote against the ruling party?

 

[TracyTan866]

yes its whats singaporeans want that matters, ...

That's good...so you got to learn not to be so worked up. what u feel doesnt matter to others. once you learn that, you wont be so egoistic. it is good for your blood pressure and health to learn to be humble

 

[TracyTan866]

KJ isnt detached from reality? .....

No, he isn't

 

[TracyTan866]

Who am I to judge that WP is conservative. any1 with eyes can see they are conservative? why do you think people used to call them Wayang Party?
why do you think they dun even recruit people in the west ???

have you even spoken to a single WP member ??? do you even know their mentality

they are well liked by Aljunied residents so??? I also like a lot of people so ???? does it mean those outside aljunied can trust the rest of WP to be MP or minister ?

if everything is so rosy as you painted why only 1 GRC fall??? and now within 6 month the situation have change so dramatically that we are seeing a change in Govt???

you are either a troll or a PAP IB tring to lull the opp supporters into complancy ...... no1 can be so politically naive

please go and read the ground... before you shoot your mouth here spreading misinfo....

what is you are forecasting is 10-12% swing in votes across the entire population going against the grain 50 years of brainwashing and horde of new citizenship all too eager to vote PAP .....

who aljunied residents like is important. they got voted in. the aljunied residents did make adifference. who u like isnt important because you cant make a difference.

I know the ground situation and I know what I am talking abt. You are entitled to your own opinions abt the ground situation. I am not here to convince you. You can choose to behave like the pap

 

[TracyTan866]

As much as EC have the best loser result for WP, i still think WP should concentrate in Sengkang Estates. The area should be everything south of the SLE-TPE expressway all the way to areas connected to AMK and Aljunied GRCs. There no way pasir-ris punggol grc to survive in next ge as punggol is having a population boom due to new flats completed or completing in the next 5 years. Even with no preparation for GE2011, WP still have a respectable 40+% in SKW and PE. The fact the highly popular mixed blood palmer majority fell from 70+% to only 50+% by an unknown WP female candidate show how popular WP is over there. So pushing for more effort in the next 5 yrs, there a good chance WP can achieve a good result. furthermore, if pasir-ris punggol breakup, then a ministar will have to be find to helm the new grc, so who will want to give up their safe grc to helm a new grc contested by WP?

if lhl have half a brain, then he should have indentify which area are prone to opposition and chop them off as smc. It better to ger rid of the cancerous estate and lose only a couple of SMCs rather than lose a 4-6 seats grc. By attaching the rebellious HG ave 8 to AMK and HG st 51/buangkok crescent to pasir ris punggol is only a botch job and may put the whole grc in danger. if WP suicide team can get 37% without HG ave 8, it will be interesting to see a new WP team challenge AMK with the WP leaning HG ave 8 in AMK grc.

Good analysis. Thanks!! The East is Blue and WP knows it..The pap is shivering and is at its wits end. How to counter the tide? they have problems touching the ground. they have recruitment problems. they have leadership vacuum. they have infighting...so how to fight the opposition Parties who are reaping credible candidates. Come the next election there will be more CSMs fighting the pap. and who can the pap put up? MBT, LSS, RL, WKS will be retired. LHL, TCH, Tharman, VB, LHK, HSK, LTY, CCS are average performers and cant hold the onslaught...will there be 10% vote swing to the opposition?? will the opposition win more than 30 seats?? The pap is in retreat

 

[TracyTan866]

dun also forget Sengkang/Punggol got a lot of new Citizen, no different from Pioneer, they may just win it for PAP

the pap has overrated and over relied on new citizens. they will be in for a shock when their expectations of new citizen votes dont meet their calculations

 

[TracyTan866]

In my personal and working life, I have learnt to appreciate the need to have at least an unwavering optimist in an environment, be it at home or office. It helps to make a sometimes "unbearable" environment more bearable.

I agree with you. I am an eternal optimist and I foresee the end of the pap

 

[TracyTan866]

everywhere also have new citizens. and because they are citizens, they also kenna screw in the same way by the pap.

i admit sengkang a lot of kelings but not all are citizen. Mostly likely on husband is citizen while wife and kids on dependent pass. one vote per household, so they may not really as damaging as we thought them to be.

The failure of the pap is not to take care of its citizens. no party neglect their own citizens and survive. Sengkang West and Ponggol East have more younger singaporeans. they are more internet savvy and more questioning. PAP will get a rude shock in these two SMCs in the next election..these younger singaporeans will vote against the pap

 

[TracyTan866]

Other than new citizens, PAP can always rely on its traditional vote bank for votes - people working in government departments and government linked companies. Do you really expect a school teacher, a nurse, a police officer or a SingTel technician to vote against the ruling party?

yes, the pap thinks that way..but the civil servants are waking up and know their rights and are less afraid.

like the GRC, the pap thought that with the GRCs, they are power entrenched permanently. the grc is cutting both ways now.. the weak candidates and bad pap branding are killing the heavyweight minister...eg Aljunied

 

[TracyTan866]

Other than new citizens, PAP can always rely on its traditional vote bank for votes - people working in government departments and government linked companies. Do you really expect a school teacher, a nurse, a police officer or a SingTel technician to vote against the ruling party?

Times have changed. And yes, i do expect a teacher, nurse, police officer or Singtel tech to vote against the pap if they are unhappy with the pap. Why shdn't they?

 

[sleaguepunter]

The East is Blue and WP knows it.

The northeast is red. i never like the new wp flag they now use in public. i still prefer the old party flag they use only at town council.