Is LHL Serious about Re-taking Aljunied GRC?

[sleaguepunter]

Miss Tan,

as much as u dislike pap, u cannot write them off because WP have the majority vote of 54.72%. u must be naive to really think wp can easily win aljunied at the next GE. wp will have to work extra hard just to retain the votes, no matter how many events they conduct in aljunied, there will still be another 90% of the voters who will not have the chance or cannot be bother to interact with their wp MPs.

there a good reason why ppl of hougang and old chengsan estate dislike the pap. george yeo himself also admit that there anger in the residents from his ex area of control, HG ave 4,6 and 8. A big part of the residents were forced to relocate from the punggol and jalan kayu kampongs, being forced from their land for a pittance in compensation to not go well with the residents. even with these advantages, LTK only managed an average of 53-55% of the majority vote in hougang over the years and 60+% of YSL will be a one off event, not to be repeated in the next GE.

Aljunied residents do not have an issue against the pap compare to resident of hougang. So every GE, both parties will have a clean slate and both parties will have to convince the voters that their party will provide the best future for the voters in the next 5 years. anyway pap normally annouce their candidates well in advance to the GE, to do grassroot activites for residents to know them. So point here trying to predict which pap heavy weight candidates will contest in aljunied.

 

[TracyTan866]

Good analogy LOL

looks like many of us agree that PAP is likely to concede Aljunied and will put in token resistance in 2016. But the WP must not be complacent but take the re-winning of Aljunied seriously. In 2016, WP must win Aljunied convincingly

 

[brocoli]

if she just an to come here and wank to her fantasy ... who are we to stop her ???


no every1 come here for serious analysis and discussion... some just come here to chill

 

[TracyTan866]

Miss Tan,

u cannot write them off because WP have the majority vote of 54.72%. wp will have to work extra hard just to retain the votes, no matter how many events they conduct in aljunied, there will still be another 90% of the voters who will not have the chance or cannot be bother to interact with their wp MPs.

Agree...see my previous post before this

 

[TracyTan866]

if she just an to come here and wank to her fantasy ... who are we to stop her ???


no every1 come here for serious analysis and discussion... some just come here to chill

are you suggesting that you have put in serious analysis and discussions here?

 

[TracyTan866]

Miss Tan,


Aljunied residents do not have an issue against the pap compare to resident of hougang. .

a very bold statement. tantamount to speaking for all aljunied residents. how credible?

 

[TracyTan866]

Miss Tan,

anyway pap normally annouce their candidates well in advance to the GE
.

r u sure abt this?

 

[brocoli]

are you suggesting that you have put in serious analysis and discussions here?

you need a course in logic, argymentative writing and critical thinking .... NUS is in kent ridge if you dunn how to go

 

[3_M]

Yes..but actions talk louder than words. LHL can say that he wants to retake Aljunied...but if he sends his 2nd tier or newbies to aljunied in 2016, do you think lhl wld sound credible?.

i suspect LHL's trumpeting abt retaking aljunied was to raise the morale of the pap aljunied grassroots . he knows they are dejected and down now..with GY openly telling them that he is leaving

From a macro point, if PAP has a base support of 35% in Aljunied, all they PAP needs to do is to win another 15% independent voters to win. Independent voters are more personality driven and may vote for candidates they find comfortable with. It just different ways of fighting, newbies will still have a fighting chance if they adopt a bottom up approach. And that is to do their ground work early and get the residents to familarise with the candidates.

Even if PAP don't win, at least they keep the 5 WP MP at bay and prevent anyone from venturing out to lead a team elsewhere. That is basically a better way for PAP than to risk any minister.

 

[TracyTan866]

From a macro point, if PAP has a base support of 35% in Aljunied, all they PAP needs to do is to win another 15% independent voters to win. Independent voters are more personality driven and may vote for candidates they find comfortable with. It just different ways of fighting, newbies will still have a fighting chance if they adopt a bottom up approach. And that is to do their ground work early and get the residents to familarise with the candidates.

Agree..but voters are getting more knowledgeable and more questioning. they want accountability and transparency which pap lacks. this will work against the pap in future

 

[TracyTan866]

From a macro point, if PAP has a base support of 35% in Aljunied, all they PAP needs to do is to win another 15% independent voters to win. Independent voters are more personality driven and may vote for candidates they find comfortable with. It just different ways of fighting, newbies will still have a fighting chance if they adopt a bottom up approach. And that is to do their ground work early and get the residents to familarise with the candidates.

whether the pap puts in newbies or heavyweights, it is a gamble the pap risk

 

[TracyTan866]

you need a course in logic, argymentative writing and critical thinking .... NUS is in kent ridge if you dunn how to go

hahaha.. You must be feeling very good that you have logic, are good in argumentative writing and can critically think well...congratulations!!!

 

[TracyTan866]

Even if PAP don't win, at least they keep the 5 WP MP at bay and prevent anyone from venturing out to lead a team elsewhere. That is basically a better way for PAP than to risk any minister.

Yes, I suspect LHL is afraid that the WP will split their Aljunied Five and go for other GRCs..That's a reasonable PAP fear...and if LHL cant defeat the WP at Aljunied, he will try to minimise the damage by holding WP only at Aljunied. But I dont think the WP is going to contest GE 2016 according to PAP's gameplan. WP has a gameplan of their own...like what they did at Aljunied in GE 2011. They are going to baffle, traumatise and defeat the PAP

 

[TracyTan866]

My guess is that he won't in 2016, becos he won't want to seem to be jumping every election.
But they will be able to put up a few strong teams everywhere, as their brand is getting stronger.

I agree with you. Most people, including the pap, would conclude that. But in politics, it's shrewd to surprise your opponent. So LTK may yet spring a surprise for GE 2016. Never say never in politics...

 

[brocoli]

are you implying that only what you said has substance?

fallacy 1: I am saying its not bout what i like, not saying only what I say has substance...

are you suggesting that you have put in serious analysis and discussions here?

fallacy 2: I said not every1 is here for serious analysis and discussions which include any1, did i suggest I have put in serious analysis and discussions here?

hahaha.. You must be feeling very good that you have logic, are good in argumentative writing and can critically think well...congratulations!!!

fallacy 3: I said you need a course in logic, argymentative writing and critical thinking because of the fallacious statement you made.... you are free to infer what you like .... but please back it up with something more than chick logic

 

[TracyTan866]

U seem to dislike LHL hor? :o

I dont dislike LHL as a person. But I dislike LHL, the PM, because he mismanaged Singapore badly and caused much miseries. He chose the wrong people to be ministers and he lacks the intellectto foresee problems caused by bad policies. As a PM, LHL failed miserably

 

[TracyTan866]

fallacy 1: I am saying its not bout what i like, not saying only what I say has substance...



fallacy 2: I said not every1 is here for serious analysis and discussions which include any1, did i suggest I have put in serious analysis and discussions here?



fallacy 3: I said you need a course in logic, argymentative writing and critical thinking because of the fallacious statement you made.... you are free to infer what you like .... but please back it up with something more than chick logic

hahaha..thank you for your attempts to clarify and clear yourself

 

[TracyTan866]

newbies will still have a fighting chance if they adopt a bottom up approach. And that is to do their ground work early and get the residents to familarise with the candidates.

theoretically, everyone has a chance..but realistically, what are the odds of PAP newbies winning at Aljunied in GE 2016 against incumbents LTK, SL, CSM? so theory is theory, let's be practical

 

[IreneYeoh]

theoretically, everyone has a chance..but realistically, what are the odds of PAP newbies winning at Aljunied in GE 2016 against incumbents LTK, SL, CSM? so theory is theory, let's be practical

I live in Aljunied GRC and can say, theoritically or realistically, no chance for PAP even if they send five full ministers!

 

[TracyTan866]

I live in Aljunied GRC and can say, theoritically or realistically, no chance for PAP even if they send five full ministers!

I think so too..

The pap is in a dilemma. They tried to manipulate the electoral system and came up with the GRC concept which they think will entrench them in power forever. How much they fail now