PAP internally concedes Hougang and Aljunied

[scroobal]

Hougang with a comfortable margin of 12.7 % in 2006 to remain in WP hands. Aljunied scraped thru in 2006 with 6.1% is expected to fall to WP which now has a star studded cast. This means that house will now have 6 opposition against 81 PAP MPs.

Looks like Tampines is apparently not an issue for two reason - 18.5% margin from 2006 and guess what - highest number of new citizens in the constituency. If GMS and team reduce the margin by 10%, they would have done a tremendous job. GMS is also stifled by the fact that he does not have quality by his side.

Opposition major issue is the unexpected good quality of candidates and the inability to allow focus.

Here is why Marine Parade is a major issue for the PAP. It had not been tested except for a 1992 (nearly 20 years ago) by elections when their main competition fail to complete forms on nomination day. In 1991 when it was last contested in a GE, PAP did very well with a margin of 27.2% but against a group of total unknowns. Their intelligence had indicated that it would not be contested. They therefore decided to give a few MPs and ended with Ms Tin thinking it was safe bet.

 

[halsey02]

Don't worry GMS have ailens to help him...MBT no match for area 51 people.... ha ha ha ha ha

 

[lockeliberal]

Dear Scroo

Polling is an inexact and an expensive science. accurate polls are expensive and long exercises. In the us they poll and track on a weekly basis to ensure accurate polling. An inaccurate n biased poll is well as bad as no poll. the pap does intensive outsourced polling exercises but they can't do it every day of a campaign and from what I hear it remains a yearly exercise.

Whatever results internal results are based on their grassroots machinery, and branch. That has been skewed in the past vis a vis lbh and amk 2006. Focus groups even if they are done are nationally driven not specific and local.

the pap strategy in 2011 is based on local issues, as in stress the local track record, promises to be better and acknowledge some mistakes and be humble.

their 2011 campaign is a scatterbrained approach of all themes and messages. I expect their lunch time rally to go negative as a last move.

Locke

 

[kingrant]

Dear Scroobal,

This is a clear example of hubris and complacency. Goh thought he could relax and go and shore up his comrades in sufferance in Aljunied like an old veteran, but now so busy with a bee in his bonnet or ants in his pants having to reckon with a Nicole Seah who refuses to be kept down!

 

[Velma]

Bishan - Toa Payoh GRC could be an upset.

 

[ahleebabasingaporethief]

Dear Screwball,

It is much more than Hougang and Aljunied.

Underground bookies have the best best ground feel.

The following are very tight as well.

Marine Parade
EastCoast
Sembawang
Holland Bukit timah
PP
Kallang Moulmein
.........even West Coast and a couple of SMCs. ISD detainee Teo is touted as a sure win ok by the underground bookies.

Do not underestimate the anger of Singaporeans whose SELF RESPECT have been sia suayed by the ruling party.
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[seebaysong]

GMS shld hv put Nicole Seah by his side la

Hougang with a comfortable margin of 12.7 % in 2006 to remain in WP hands. Aljunied scraped thru in 2006 with 6.1% is expected to fall to WP which now has a star studded cast. This means that house will now have 6 opposition against 81 PAP MPs.

Looks like Tampines is apparently not an issue for two reason - 18.5% margin from 2006 and guess what - highest number of new citizens in the constituency. If GMS and team reduce the margin by 10%, they would have done a tremendous job. GMS is also stifled by the fact that he does not have quality by his side.

Opposition major issue is the unexpected good quality of candidates and the inability to allow focus.

Here is why Marine Parade is a major issue for the PAP. It had not been tested except for a 1992 (nearly 20 years ago) by elections when their main competition fail to complete forms on nomination day. In 1991 when it was last contested in a GE, PAP did very well with a margin of 27.2% but against a group of total unknowns. Their intelligence had indicated that it would not be contested. They therefore decided to give a few MPs and ended with Ms Tin thinking it was safe bet.

 

[Forvendet]

I expect NSP to score about 40% in Tampines and about 35% in Marine Parade. Their only real chance to win is with Jeanette at Mountbatten. For SDP, I think the chance lies with Alec in Bukit Panjang. PAP TPH got superhigh score in 2006 because of the unpopularity of LHD. Now with a new and articulate opponent in Alec, the swing may be very wide.

 

[ahleebabasingaporethief]

Just checked my list...Toa Payoh Bishan as well.

 

[leoman]

b4 voting day
goh ct oready throw in d towel by saying: WAT HAS HE (GEORGE) DONE 2 DESERVED TIS

got wat he mean??

gameover liaoz in alujunied

Hougang with a comfortable margin of 12.7 % in 2006 to remain in WP hands. Aljunied scraped thru in 2006 with 6.1% is expected to fall to WP which now has a star studded cast. This means that house will now have 6 opposition against 81 PAP MPs.

Looks like Tampines is apparently not an issue for two reason - 18.5% margin from 2006 and guess what - highest number of new citizens in the constituency. If GMS and team reduce the margin by 10%, they would have done a tremendous job. GMS is also stifled by the fact that he does not have quality by his side.

Opposition major issue is the unexpected good quality of candidates and the inability to allow focus.

Here is why Marine Parade is a major issue for the PAP. It had not been tested except for a 1992 (nearly 20 years ago) by elections when their main competition fail to complete forms on nomination day. In 1991 when it was last contested in a GE, PAP did very well with a margin of 27.2% but against a group of total unknowns. Their intelligence had indicated that it would not be contested. They therefore decided to give a few MPs and ended with Ms Tin thinking it was safe bet.

 

[Charlie99]

Just checked my list...Toa Payoh Bishan as well.

My intelligence on the ground indicated that CST is too weak and not in good health could be a factor for PAP to win at Bishan Toa Payoh. Besides, the intel also indicated that the residents there are not impressed with the SPP slate of candidates.

 

[wikiphile]

This is ironic and the PAP deserve this upset and loss. Their message to Singaporeans is always 'not to be complacent' and suddenly one acid test caught them with their pants down.

Anyway back to the main issue
Joo chiat looks ripe for a blue takeover
Bishan - Toa Payoh is still hanging in the balance but SPP should do decently, the swing is not Bishan but I feel Toa Payoh.
PP - I will eat my words and decide that Lina Chiam might have a chance afterall, 27 years of goodwill built by CST is a tool not to be understimated.
Hougang - YSL should be able to defend it
East Coast - up for grabs, Malay swing voters is the decisive factor here
Marine Parade GRC - if the PAP loses it unexpectedly, it would be the biggest upset after Aljunied, GCT has overestimated his own popularity and underestimated NSP
Tampines GRC - NSP victory unlikely with Malay voters a swing factor
Aljunied - the ground is very sweet indeed for a WP takeover, even the apolitical aunties are starting to take an interest in WP
Nee Soon GRC - not sure abt the ground, won't comment what I don't know
Moulmein I GRC - swing voters are the upper middle class liberals in their 20s and 30s who have might be partial to opposition, the WP has so far not made a bad impression on them

 

[Forvendet]

If GCT loses Marine Parade it'd be the biggest upset, but not after Aljunied. If GY can defend Aljunied, then it'd be the biggest upset.

 

[cass888]

Here is why Marine Parade is a major issue for the PAP. It had not been tested except for a 1992 (nearly 20 years ago) by elections when their main competition fail to complete forms on nomination day. In 1991 when it was last contested in a GE, PAP did very well with a margin of 27.2% but against a group of total unknowns. Their intelligence had indicated that it would not be contested. They therefore decided to give a few MPs and ended with Ms Tin thinking it was safe bet.

You forgot the By Elections with celebrity newcomer the MONGREL who bit his masters' hands LOUDHAILER chee soon juan, veteran Ashleigh Seow and - note this - former PAP MP Low Yong Nguan. While you don't expect them to win, you'd expect this to be the highest the opposition could have got during that point in time (short of putting in Chiam See Tong - Low Thia Khiang was still an unknown then).

 

[Velma]

This is ironic and the PAP deserve this upset and loss. Their message to Singaporeans is always 'not to be complacent' and suddenly one acid test caught them with their pants down.

Anyway back to the main issue
Joo chiat looks ripe for a blue takeover
Bishan - Toa Payoh is still hanging in the balance but SPP should do decently, the swing is not Bishan but I feel Toa Payoh.
PP - I will eat my words and decide that Lina Chiam might have a chance afterall, 27 years of goodwill built by CST is a tool not to be understimated.
Hougang - YSL should be able to defend it
East Coast - up for grabs, Malay swing voters is the decisive factor here
Marine Parade GRC - if the PAP loses it unexpectedly, it would be the biggest upset after Aljunied, GCT has overestimated his own popularity and underestimated NSP
Tampines GRC - NSP victory unlikely with Malay voters a swing factor
Aljunied - the ground is very sweet indeed for a WP takeover, even the apolitical aunties are starting to take an interest in WP
Nee Soon GRC - not sure abt the ground, won't comment what I don't know
Moulmein I GRC - swing voters are the upper middle class liberals in their 20s and 30s who have might be partial to opposition, the WP has so far not made a bad impression on them

An input from a Nee Soon GRC resident here

Nee Soon GRC - people unhappy but because WP send their weakest GRC squad here, PAP will still triumph.

Just my prediction. I hope to stand corrected. :p

 

[sense]

Here is why Marine Parade is a major issue for the PAP. It had not been tested except for a 1992 (nearly 20 years ago) by elections when their main competition fail to complete forms on nomination day. In 1991 when it was last contested in a GE, PAP did very well with a margin of 27.2% but against a group of total unknowns. Their intelligence had indicated that it would not be contested. They therefore decided to give a few MPs and ended with Ms Tin thinking it was safe bet.

Spot on. Both TPL and recently GCT actions/reactions will definitely drive PAP votes lower in MParade. The question is whether is it low enough.

MParade voters who are pro-PAP should consider whether they would give Nicole a chance to be NCMP, if yes, then some votes for her team would be beneficial to make that happened.

BTW, Nicole's facebook fans have exceed LKY fans. She has over 60k fans now.

While TPL will most likely have a smooth ride into the parliament, as MParade voters, we should ask ourselves whether we want Nicole who is a lot more sensible than TPL to also be in the parliament representing us - as a NCMP. Pls consider Nicole, http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?91405-Nicole-vs-Lee-Kuan-Yew-Facebook-fans-gt-60k-vs-58k

Image source: http://is.qd/KdJEcF

 

[yellow_people]

Bishan - Toa Payoh GRC could be an upset.

A lot of sympathy votes will go to Chiam from the middle ground. Plus Wong Kan Seng is disliked by the average voter. Both this factors can combine to tilt the GRC in SPP's favor.


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[travelbug]

I expect NSP to score about 40% in Tampines and about 35% in Marine Parade. Their only real chance to win is with Jeanette at Mountbatten. For SDP, I think the chance lies with Alec in Bukit Panjang. PAP TPH got superhigh score in 2006 because of the unpopularity of LHD. Now with a new and articulate opponent in Alec, the swing may be very wide.

You forgot Steve Chia of NSP in Pioneer SMC. He has some chance of winning.

Agree about Jeanette in Mountbatten, hope she wins. She is campaigning with her heart & soul. Seems to be making breakthroughs into private condos too.

Marine Parade & Tampines will remain in PAP hands unfortunately.

Guess those in Tampines new citizens must be Ah Nehs ITs folks.

 

[tonychat]

Hougang with a comfortable margin of 12.7 % in 2006 to remain in WP hands. Aljunied scraped thru in 2006 with 6.1% is expected to fall to WP which now has a star studded cast. This means that house will now have 6 opposition against 81 PAP MPs.

Looks like Tampines is apparently not an issue for two reason - 18.5% margin from 2006 and guess what - highest number of new citizens in the constituency. If GMS and team reduce the margin by 10%, they would have done a tremendous job. GMS is also stifled by the fact that he does not have quality by his side.

Opposition major issue is the unexpected good quality of candidates and the inability to allow focus.

Here is why Marine Parade is a major issue for the PAP. It had not been tested except for a 1992 (nearly 20 years ago) by elections when their main competition fail to complete forms on nomination day. In 1991 when it was last contested in a GE, PAP did very well with a margin of 27.2% but against a group of total unknowns. Their intelligence had indicated that it would not be contested. They therefore decided to give a few MPs and ended with Ms Tin thinking it was safe bet.

Why the hell do you like to assume outcomes, this and that and in the end make wrong assumption. YOur ego is so bloody high like as though others have to assume your assumption as some gospel truth.

Face it, you are just another moron here give your own views. You have make wrong assumption everywhere and you have misjudge the generation Y boldness and intelligence.

You should learn to be humble but as i know sinkies, they do not even know how to spell humble. Let me read more of your moron posts and i will have some entertainment.

 

[yellow_people]

Why the hell do you like to assume outcomes, this and that and in the end make wrong assumption.

Scroobal, like the PAP want to put the idea in your heads that losing Hougang and Aljunied is ample enough and not to cast your votes against the PAP in other districts.

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