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Yen Carry-Trades unwinding rapidly, global asset-prices collapse

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China’s yuan hits internationalisation landmark with record share of global payments​

  • Data shows China’s yuan has reached a record share of global payments, a welcome sign for the country as it boosts its currency overseas

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Published: 7:00pm, 23 Aug 2024
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The Chinese yuan’s share in global payments hit a record high in July, a milestone in Beijing’s efforts to fend off the hegemony of the US dollar and increase its say in the international monetary system.
The yuan kept its fourth-place spot in the ranking of payment currencies last month, with its share of global transactions rising to 4.74 per cent from 4.61 per cent in June. The increase was observed in data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift), the world’s largest interbank messaging service.
 

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T. Rowe Manager Who Predicted Yen Shock Sees Another One Coming​

  • ‘Scapegoating’ of yen carry trade ignores bigger, deeper trend
  • BOJ hikes and impact on global capital far from simple: Husain





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Carry Trade Risk in Focus as Ueda Comments Boost Yen
By Ruth Carson
September 3, 2024 at 9:51 AM GMT+8
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September 3, 2024 at 4:45 PM GMT+8
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Arif Husain says he was early in sounding the alarm on Japan’s rising interest rates last year, which he described as the “San Andreas fault of finance.”
The head of fixed-income at T. Rowe Price is now warning that investors have “just seen the first shift in that fault, and there is more” market volatility ahead after the nation’s rate hike in July helped trigger a sharp reversal of the yen carry trade.
 

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China Renaissance Crashes as Trading Resumes After Bao Fan Exit​

  • Shares resume trading in Hong Kong after 17-month suspension
  • Ex-chair Bao was replaced amid unspecified government probe

By Lulu Yilun Chen
September 9, 2024 at 9:43 AM GMT+8
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September 9, 2024 at 11:07 AM GMT+8
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China Renaissance Holdings Ltd.’s shares fell as much as 73% after resuming trading in Hong Kong on Monday, 17 months after the stock was suspended following the detention of its former Chairman Bao Fan.

The company said it has fulfilled requirements for the trading resumption, releasing its earnings for the first half and for last year and 2022.

The company replaced Bao in February, a year after he vanished from the public eye due to an investigation by Chinese authorities. Shares of China Renaissance were down 63% as of 11:00 a.m., wiping out about HK$2.6 billion ($334 million) of its market value.
 

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US Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $1.2 Billion in Longest Run of Net Outflows​

  • Investors pulled cash from the funds for eight straight days
  • Anxiety in global markets is spilling over into digital assets

By Sidhartha Shukla and Suvashree Ghosh
September 9, 2024 at 1:42 PM GMT+8
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US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted their longest run of daily net outflows since listing at the start of the year, part of a wider retreat from riskier assets in a challenging period for global markets.
Investors pulled close to $1.2 billion in total from the group of 12 ETFs over the eight days through Sept. 6, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The drop comes amid a rocky period for shares and commodities on economic growth worries.
 

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China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage​

  • Prices seen as falling through 2025 as wages, demand languish
  • Long-term deflation could be major setback to China’s economy


“We are definitely in deflation and probably going through the second stage of deflation.”

“We are definitely in deflation and probably going through the second stage of deflation.”
Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
By Bloomberg News
September 9, 2024 at 6:30 PM GMT+8
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Deflation stalking China since last year is now showing signs of spiraling, threatening to worsen the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy and raising calls for immediate policy action.

Data released Monday confirmed that apart from food costs, consumer price growth barely registered in large swathes of the economy at a time when incomes are sagging.
 

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Cautious Chinese travelers are taking more last-minute trips as economy struggles​

Published Mon, Sep 9 202410:17 PM EDT
Anniek Bao@in/anniek-yunxin-bao-460a48107/@anniekbyx
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Key Points
  • There is a “real crisis of consumer confidence” in China, Anthony Caputano, president and CEO of Marriott International said at the Bank of America Gaming and Lodging Conference last Thursday.
  • The shorter booking metric — which usually points to consumers’ increased uncertainty and caution with spending — makes it challenging for businesses to “predict and prepare” for demand.
Chinese consumers have become more frugal on everything, from groceries to travel, as the world’s second-largest economy grapples with a protracted property crisis and high unemployment.

“While people still want to go on holiday, sentiment regarding incomes and consumption remains low,” according to economists at Oxford Economics.
 

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Indeed, China has been known as a market with consistently short booking windows, according to a report by the World Travel & Tourism Council in 2021. In 2019, 70% of hotel bookings on travel agency Trip.com were made within three days of check-in. This ratio rose above 80% in the first two years of the pandemic, due to the high uncertainty of travel restrictions during the pandemic.

In July, Marriott International lowered its growth forecast for revenue per available room for this year, citing “current weak demand and pricing trends” in China.
That pricing pressure is reflected across the industry including at domestic travel booking agency Trip.com, which reported average rates for domestic hotels and flights continued to decline this year.
During the Labor Day holiday in May — one of the country’s longest breaks of the year — China saw more domestic trips and tourism spending than in 2019, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. But the average spending per traveler is still below 2019 levels.

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The trend of people opting for short-haul trips to smaller cities or counties will continue, Oxford Economics said, which could boost these local economies.
Travel demand during the upcoming Golden Week in early October is expected to surpass the 2019 level, the economists said.
When asked about the outlook for the second half of the year, Trip.com CFO Xiaofan Wang said the company had “very limited visibility due to the short booking windows.” The platform expects booking activities to pick up after the National Day holiday, given a lower base in the same period last year, it said.
 

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Samsung to slash global workforce by up to 30%: sources​


Sales, marketing and admin roles targeted; job cuts expected to impact multiple regions
Samsung to slash global workforce by up to 30%: sources

BY Sarah Dobson 12 Sep 2024
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Samsung Electronics is preparing to reduce its global workforce by up to 30% in some divisions as part of a significant restructuring effort, according to sources who spoke with Reuters.
The South Korean tech giant has issued directives to its subsidiaries across several continents to implement the cuts by the end of 2024.
According to two insiders, Samsung has instructed regional offices to reduce sales and marketing staff by about 15%, while administrative staff could face reductions of up to 30%. The cuts are expected to impact regions including the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.

In a statement to Reuters, Samsung said, “Workforce adjustments conducted at some overseas operations were routine, and aimed at improving efficiency.” The company clarified that production staff would not be impacted by these changes.
Samsung employed a total of 267,800 people as of the end of 2023, and more than half, or 147,000 employees, are based overseas, according to its latest sustainability report cited by Reuters.
Back in April, the company ordered a six-day work week for its executives to come up with plans to adapt to economic uncertainty.
 

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Restructuring amid industry challenges

Samsung’s decision to trim its workforce comes as it faces mounting challenges across its key business areas. The company’s semiconductor division has struggled to recover from a global downturn in the chip industry, which resulted in a 15-year low in profits for Samsung last year, said Reuters.

Shares in Samsung Electronics, South Korea’s most valuable listed company, hit a 16-month low on Wednesday. Analysts have also lowered their profit estimates for the company, citing weak recovery in global demand for smartphones and personal computers.

Samsung also faces fierce competition in the premium smartphone market, with rivals such as Apple and Huawei steadily eroding its market share, said the Reuters report. In India, a critical market that generates around $12 billion annually for Samsung, a strike over wages has disrupted production.

One source familiar with the restructuring told Reuters that the job cuts are being made to prepare for a slowdown in global demand for technology products, as economic conditions worldwide continue to weaken. Another source cited cost-saving measures as a key factor behind the move.

Some of the earliest impacts of these job cuts have been felt in India, where mid-level employees have been offered severance packages in recent weeks, said Reuters. A source revealed that as many as 1,000 jobs could be eliminated in Samsung’s India division, which currently employs about 25,000 people.
 
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