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Will there be a recession this year?

What do u think ? Many car Owners prefer to stay at home to save fuel. The same goes to people who go out by taxi. All try to save money.
 
SOS said:
Russia has invaded Ukraine and inflation is felt across the board. We also opening up with less covid restriction which will aid our hospitality sector and domestic consumption (retail dining) which will cushion any downturn. Then China also start to lockdown some cities.

Stock market is also recovering after the initial Ukraine war selldown, so I really don't know if Singapore will experience any recession this year?
Click to expand...


not at all..................with inflation creating artificial GDP growth...........
 
Financial markets are now pricing in Fed rates above 2.2% by the end of 2022, Bloomberg data show.
 
hbk75 said:
Usa of die from hyperinflation then sinkapore also die. Pap is creating fake high gdp using inflated prices. everything sell at high prices will generate higher gdp.

Banks better margin call those that cannot pay mortgages. Still wanna defer loans like last year?
Click to expand...
GDP bonus sure good this year. :cool:
 
According to Nomura Research, China faces the worst slowdown since the covid outbreak in 2020 and the world should be worried about a further slide, as the challenges persist. Official GDP figures may be massaged to deliver the government’s target, but all other macro figures point to a much weaker growth.

The collapse of the real estate bubble is the biggest problem. A research paper by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang estimated that the real estate sector accounts for around 29% of China’s GDP. It is impossible for the Chinese government to offset the impact of such a massive part of the economy with other high-growth sectors. Furthermore, real estate’s impact on the job market is hard to substitute. Economist George Magnus warned that the impact of the real estate collapse would last for years.

China’s high debt is also a problem. Total debt stands above 300% of GDP, according to the IIF. The ECB points out that China’s debt-to-GDP ratio for the entire private sector now stands at over 250% and the corporate component of this debt is the highest in the world. The ECB points also to the risk created because a “significant proportion of funding is supplied to the corporate sector by non-bank financial institutions” leading to higher risk-taking and a shadow banking system that leads to large inefficiencies and solvency challenges.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-slowdown-much-more-covid
 
SOS said:
According to Nomura Research, China faces the worst slowdown since the covid outbreak in 2020 and the world should be worried about a further slide, as the challenges persist. Official GDP figures may be massaged to deliver the government’s target, but all other macro figures point to a much weaker growth.

The collapse of the real estate bubble is the biggest problem. A research paper by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang estimated that the real estate sector accounts for around 29% of China’s GDP. It is impossible for the Chinese government to offset the impact of such a massive part of the economy with other high-growth sectors. Furthermore, real estate’s impact on the job market is hard to substitute. Economist George Magnus warned that the impact of the real estate collapse would last for years.

China’s high debt is also a problem. Total debt stands above 300% of GDP, according to the IIF. The ECB points out that China’s debt-to-GDP ratio for the entire private sector now stands at over 250% and the corporate component of this debt is the highest in the world. The ECB points also to the risk created because a “significant proportion of funding is supplied to the corporate sector by non-bank financial institutions” leading to higher risk-taking and a shadow banking system that leads to large inefficiencies and solvency challenges.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-slowdown-much-more-covid
Click to expand...

We have the same problem. The Chinese are taking a short-term pain, long-term gain approach to clean up the real estate and high debt issues. Once this is over, China will have affordable housing, low debts and money following back into business rather than real estate speculation. To offset the impact GDP, China announced a $2.3 Trillion infrastructure investment that again, is investing positively into the future.

Makes you wonder eh? An expensive government does not really bring you a good government. One that cares for its citizen does not need million dollar salaries to bring in good officials.
 
The China today is their own doing, especially by the CCP. Entrepreneurship in China has degraded to beyond sincerity and honesty since Jiang's time. The worst is these crooks are even cheating on their own population's money now, like the recent bank scandal. The mastermind had even left China and could be in the US by now. Coupled with China's numerous foes, which country will be willing to co-operate with China to repatriate these crooks back? Even China itself is a leading bad example by not repatriating Jho Low back to Malaysia.
 
winners said:
The China today is their own doing, especially by the CCP. Entrepreneurship in China has degraded to beyond sincerity and honesty since Jiang's time. The worst is these crooks are even cheating on their own population's money now, like the recent bank scandal. The mastermind had even left China and could be in the US by now. Coupled with China's numerous foes, which country will be willing to co-operate with China to repatriate these crooks back? Even China itself is a leading bad example by not repatriating Jho Low back to Malaysia.
Click to expand...
I think China is quite ok.

Macau and HK's reserves are about 40% of China's size. China just had a massive swap facility with HK in July 2022. https://www.reuters.com/markets/cur...th-hkma-expands-size-800-bln-yuan-2022-07-04/

This is not because HK needs Chinese Yuan but it gives China access to HK's US Dollar reserves. China can print yuan and switch to US Dollar fairly easily. It's like your daddy is your bank's joint-account holder now, either one can withdraw.
 
SOS said:
I think China is quite ok.

Macau and HK's reserves are about 40% of China's size. China just had a massive swap facility with HK in July 2022. https://www.reuters.com/markets/cur...th-hkma-expands-size-800-bln-yuan-2022-07-04/

This is not because HK needs Chinese Yuan but it gives China access to HK's US Dollar reserves. China can print yuan and switch to US Dollar fairly easily. It's like your daddy is your bank's joint-account holder now, either one can withdraw.
Click to expand...
China is just milking Hongkong's attained prosperity. China will never allow Hongkong to be more prosperous and capable than Shanghai in financial terms. This is also the very reason why Li Ka-Shing had packed up his businesses in Hongkong and leave only the bear minimum for his son to manage. China's reserves in US Treasuries are gradually diminishing annually, but yet they won't allow the full floatation of their own currency for fear of speculative attacks.
 
Last edited:
Recession there will be in 2023, but I think it should be a short and fast one, probably between 12 and 18 months at most.
 
Was it that big black dog that taught you how to think? It didnt do a very good job as everyone can see. Since I have engaged you here in this forum my IQ has dropped from 540 to its present 500. You are a real bad influence.
winners said:
Recession there will be in 2023, but I think it should be a short and fast one, probably between 12 and 18 months at most.
Click to expand...
 
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