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mr. gms,
reverse engineering is one thing. having 60 years of experience conducting naval flight operations, learning from wars and mistakes, perfecting best practice, and training and equipping a carrier strike force cannot be reverse-engineered. having one or two carriers is one thing. having a carrier battle group is another. china can throw money and men at developing a carrier as large as the nimitz class with copied technology, but it would take them decades (and multiple wars) to arrive at the personnel level, experience and "software" of what really runs a carrier fleet. in other words, it's better to spend the money and resources somewhere else where it's needed most. and me thinks terrestrial aircraft carriers have reached their zenith of their usefulness. it's time to think space-based carriers. leapfrogging rather than following favors the superpower wannabe.
I do agree with you in this aspect and I believe the Chinese is making plans to do exactly this. Its ambitious aerospace programs is a sign of it taking that direction.
However, I would say that we should not underestimate the Chinese ability to build up a credible carrier fleet within the next decade or so. It has the necessary frigates and destroyers coupled with a massive submarine fleet that could incorporated into this fleet formation. The point is that they are not starting from zero but rather, has been progressively building and training up their related fleet formations for the past two decades. As for the software and know how, I guess the Chinese has a shorter learning curve than the established American and Russian fleets.
I believe the Chinese carrier fleet's main objective is to exert pressure on the Japanese and Filipino American bases instead of long range projection that Americans and Russians have used to do. Maybe even Singapore is within their targeting range because we are basically Americans' navy logistics backyard.
Goh Meng Seng
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