I did note surprisingly the tame response at ground level. I also note the political pundits are also unsure.
Any reason why the German Intelligence has been on point in the last 3 years on ME?
Very good spot - relations between Germany and the Saudis had already become tense in the years before because of Berlin's decision to tighten restrictions on arms contracts and to speak out on human rights (for eg Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel had criticised the sentencing of blogger Raif Badawi the year before in March 2014 before his visit to Riyadh and was instrumental in convening talks in Vienna in Nov 2015 on the Syria conflict between KSA, Iran, Russia, Turkey, Iraq and other western powers). In 2015 Germany had also accepted 900,000 refugees.
Interestingly, although the initial 2015 report released 3 weeks after (on 2 Dec 2015) the Paris attacks (on 13 Nov 2015) it was quickly publicly rebuked by the German government - it was the prominent inclusion of untested and discrete youngling MBS in the then-new lineup as vice crown prince and new minister of defence in January 2015 by his dad King Salman when he took the throne that caught their attention initially.
The BND correctly projected that concentration of enormous economic and military power coupled with his then know nickname "Reckless" would spur him to go too far in attempting to establishing himself as the true heir to the throne with an opportunity. to craft a legacy that would endure for 50 years or more. There were various reasons the report made little impact outside Germany (BND was also battling the scandal of doing NSA's bidding to have spied on European allies, companies, and institutions far beyond a 2002 intelligence-sharing agreement with the US, and used mass-surveillance software supplied by US spies, had already caused outrage in Germany.).
Ultimately the milestone event of the execution of the Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and 46 others – mostly Sunni jihadis or dissenters – on 2 January 2016 that ultimately really raised flags that, for almost the first time, alerting governments to the extent to which the "new" Saudi Arabia had become a threat to the status quo., where
"cautious diplomatic stance of the elder leaders in the royal family is being replaced by an impulsive policy of intervention".
It was also seen as a direct salvo of deliberately provoking Iran in a bid to take leadership of the Sunni and Arab worlds while at the same time MBS buttressing his domestic power by appealing to Sunni sectarian nationalism. The bellicose approach instead of relying on U.S. military intervention and battling Iran through proxies and economic diplomacy, as his predecessor had done made it clear that MBS and his inner circle had quickly adopted a more aggressive foreign policy where the kingdom’s leaders are prepared to confront Iran in their growing regional proxy war, which extends through Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and Lebanon.
As the 2015 BND memo put it:
“Saudi Arabia wants to prove that it is ready to take unprecedented military, financial, and political risks in order not to fall into a disadvantageous position in the region.”
There is no mention of the role of the Crown Prince of the UAE in the Saud House of Cards at that point.
Of note is that
by April 2016 Gerhard Schindler the head of BND was replaced two years before his due date by Bruno Kahl, a senior aide to finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. There were no reasons given for the sudden decision and speculation was rife.
In a subsequent report in 2016 both BND and BfV identified KSA, Qatar and Kuwait in support of Salafists, living in Germany, by funding mosques, religious schools, hardline preachers and conversion or “dawah” groups to Salafist ideology - the main goal of the active missionary activities of these organizations on German territory is “spreading a fundamentalist version of Islam.” The special services had proof that German Salafists receive financial support from such organizations as the Kuwaiti Society for the Revival of Islamic Heritage, the Qatari Sheikh Eid Charity Foundation, and the Saudi Muslim World League. The report also cited that the religious organizations from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar “have very close ties to the state officials in their countries of origin,” and Saudi Arabia sees its “global missionary activities as its permanent state interest and as a part of its foreign policy.”
A similar reflection on BND's 2015 findings was penned just last month following the most recent events in KSA:
