We underestimated SG50 and LKY effect on the general election

[Sideswipe]

Singapore politics lacks a polling culture so we will never know what made up the 70% PAP votes by race, age, sex, education level, income group, new citizens, etc... think the PAP know all the voting patterns in great details so they were able to manipulate and win the elections every time.

 

[Cerebral]

What we underestimated was the cowardice and stupidity of Singaporeans. 2011 was the freak result. The swing voters will never stay with the opposition, no matter the quality of candidates you give them. It is finished.

I believe so too. Back then, when oppositions were weaker, people were saying that they don't have quality candidates. Opposition brought in tons of talents, heads above the PAP team, and still nothing. I think it is just a selfish mentality Singaporeans have and they are inventing all kinds of excuses

 

[Sideswipe]

It's not the freebies. It's a matter of choice of candidates. If Chee Soon Juan had chosen another GRC where they are a lot of young voters, he might have won. WP behaves like a hooligan. Reasonable people do not like that kind of taunt. Did you see the body language from LTK, CSM and Pritam Singh? CSM is also no longer the candidate I held in high regards. What he said and his body language, it is obvious he has gone down to the same level at LTK.

CSJ was not going to win a seat anywhere. considering the 70% PAP popular vote, it's likely that the entire demographic including the young voters voted in majority for the PAP.

 

[Cerebral]

There are two main reasons: The upper middle class (although not happen with PAP for various causes) were afraid of "freak" election result. Hence voted for PAP.

Secondly, the new "citizens" all voted for PAP.

Sorry to add also that not many of oppositions candidates are of calibre.

I have to disagree with your last point. Opposition candidates were heads about PAPs

 

[halsey02]

I doubt the AHPETC issue played a major role. Many other factors came into play. One thing I am certain - WP took 10 steps backwards and may not recover from this setback. All the PAP need to do before the next GE is throw more freebies out.

The workers' party have their hands full in the next five years, they have to live up to the expectations of the constituents. They won very narrowly in Aljunied & their support in Hougang is sliding too. Hougang has a rapidly aging population, these people kept the WP flame alive, but with new housing coming & people imported in from overseas & elsewhere in Singapore, the WP hold on Hougang will slip from the fingers. At the moment, the WP is still the only alternative voice for the people, but if they do not work hard, think smart....we will end up again, with a Familiar DICTATOR who will be worse than we had in the past.

I still believe in a balance government of the ruling party & number of oppositions in parliament, it is fairly dangerous to bet our lives on a single party.

From now, till 'we meet again'...that is 2020, SINGAPOREANS now can have their cake & eat it....& can not complain if the people they voted in, goes back to their draconian & stifling ways...

Good Luck Singapore, this is what they need, can't help it if Singaporeans are myopic, hard of hearing, muddle-brained....don't complain any more....now you have that 'cake'...enjoy!....

 

[halsey02]

CSJ was not going to win a seat anywhere. considering the 70% PAP popular vote, it's likely that the entire demographic including the young voters voted in majority for the PAP.

They are not ready for a CSJ....

 

[numero uno]

Look at the results carefully. 200,000 to 300,000 will not swing the votes that wildly.

I disagree. 300,000 votes concentrated in a few blue collar SMCs would easily translate into a 5-10% swing in votes in these GRCs. I am sure they knwo where these new voters are and hence the change in boundaries suddenly. coupled with the fear mongering about the impending recession and the stock markets sudden collapsed 2 weeks before voting. these are the main factors why they daft people voted them in. anyway like I said Karma would strike these people. next time these balless sinkies complain about the MRT or high costs of living or about the ah nehs infesting the place, just reply who do you vote for? life is fair after all. CSJ although a decent guy is too idealistic. he pick the wrong place to contests as Holland area is full of rich people who rightfully despise the poor(after what this fiasco shows) and should have contest in some middle income group SMC .

 

[sirus]

Indeed SG50 was money well spent!
LKY also died a timely death.
Majulah pap!

This morning I found 1 of my $50 note looked like this.

 

[Asterix]

Bottom line is very clear and simple
Sinkies are kiasi kiasu and kiagui
Like I said more than two years ago
Change Gahbrament is very easy
Shift in mentality much more difficult
This "freak" erection result proves
I was 100% right to vote with my feet
Sinkies used to living under Prince

A PEOPLE ACCUSTOMED TO LIVING UNDER A PRINCE, IF BY SOME ACCIDENT BECOMES FREE, MAINTAINS ITS LIBERTY WITH DIFFICULTY
(Book I, Chapter XVI of MACHIAVELLI’s Discourses on Livy - this is an abridged version, edited by me)

Many examples from history will show how difficult it is for a people used to living under a Prince (LEEgime) to preserve their liberty after they had by some accident acquired it, as Rome acquired it after driving out the Tarquins. Such difficulty is reasonable, because that people is nothing else other than a brute animal, which although by nature ferocious and wild, has always been brought up in prison and servitude. Later being left by chance free in a field, and not being accustomed to obtain food or not knowing where to find shelter for refuge, becomes prey to the first one who seeks to enchain it again.

This same thing happens to a people, who being accustomed to living under governments of others, not knowing to reason either on public defense or offense, not knowing the LEEgime or being known by them, return readily under a yoke, which often times is more heavy than that which a short time before had been taken from their necks.

To the above should be added another difficulty, which is that the state which becomes free makes enemy partisans, and not friendly partisans. All those men become its enemy partisans who avail themselves of the tyrannical state, feeding on the riches of the LEEgime, and who when they are deprived of the faculty of thus availing themselves, cannot live content, and some are forced to attempt to reestablish the tyranny so as to recover their authority.

It does not, as I have said, acquire friendly partisans, for a free society bestows honours and rewards through the medium of honest and predetermined rules, and outside of which does not honour or reward anyone. When one receives those honours and rewards as appears to them he merits, he does not consider he has any obligation to repay them. With regards to freedom from expropriation and the like in a free society, no one will ever confess himself to have an obligation to one who only does not offend him.

Please feel free to comment.

For the original, see Book I, Chapter XVI of Machiavelli’s Discourses on Livy, available here:

http://www.constitution.org/mac/disclivy1.htm#1:04

 

[3_M]

Other than SG50 and LKY factors, the highly fragmented state of opposition doesn't help as there were too many manifestos and voters got confused. And if this GE is about national issues, voters are looking at solutions which a disunited opposition can't provide. Neither do they have a stomach for a rainbow coalition. WP campaign on voting for a credible and responsible opposition to check on the gov rather than forming the gov was drowned out by all the noises. In the end swing voters choose to play the safe card by voting PAP. In conclusion, the bar was set too high for opposition to clear.

Despite this, the swing was very prominent on smaller players and less for WP. Their branding does help to cushion the impact.

 

[yellowarse]

Sad day for Singapore. 10% vote swing to the PAP, 1 opposition seat lost. The last time PAP crossed 70% of the popular vote was back in 2001. So after 50 years of nationhood, we’ve regressed 14 years. 1 step forward, 3 steps back.

We’ll have to do a post-mortem and find out what went wrong. At this juncture, 4 factors come to mind:

1. 300,000 new citizens rooting for PAP. All the oppo parties harping on the population policy further herded them into voting PAP.

2. Fear factor. The PAP managed to convince many voters of the (over-exaggerated) risk of a change in govt (thus becoming like M'sia) if they voted opposition. The recent 1MDB debacle in M'sia didn't help. Neither did the AHPETC saga.

3. Carrots dangled in last 4 years: PG, CHAS, property cooling measures, MRT fare reduction, promises of infrastructure upgrades, etc.

4. SG50 and LKY's death: minor factor, maybe accounting for 2%.

The huge swing came from the middle-ground 40%. They decide the outcome of any election; capturing this middle ground is key if the opposition wants to grow and challenge the PAP.

At times like this, one sometimes despair of Singaporeans ever growing up, of ever making a better Singapore. WP candidate Daniel Goh is right: Singaporeans are kiasi, kiasu, kia kwee. Opposition politics here is like a marathon, true, but will we ever see the finishing line?

 

[3_M]

Sad day for Singapore. 10% vote swing to the PAP, 1 opposition seat lost. The last time PAP crossed 70% of the popular vote was back in 2001. So after 50 years of nationhood, we’ve regressed 14 years. 1 step forward, 3 steps back.

We’ll have to do a post-mortem and find out what went wrong. At this juncture, 4 factors come to mind:

1. 300,000 new citizens rooting for PAP. All the oppo parties harping on the population policy further herded them into voting PAP.

2. Fear factor. The PAP managed to convince many voters of the (over-exaggerated) risk of a change in govt (thus becoming like M'sia) if they voted opposition. The recent 1MDB debacle in M'sia didn't help. Neither did the AHPETC saga.

3. Carrots dangled in last 4 years: PG, CHAS, property cooling measures, MRT fare reduction, promises of infrastructure upgrades, etc.

4. SG50 and LKY's death: minor factor, maybe accounting for 2%.

The huge swing came from the middle-ground 40%. They decide the outcome of any election; capturing this middle ground is key if the opposition wants to grow and challenge the PAP.

At times like this, one sometimes despair of Singaporeans ever growing up, of ever making a better Singapore. WP candidate Daniel Goh is right: Singaporeans are kiasi, kiasu, kia kwee. Opposition politics here is like a marathon, true, but will we ever see the finishing line?

I don't think AHPETC play saga is one factor, in fact it to the advantage of WP. But since voters generally don't take a interests on this issue, WP don't stand to gain much. LKY factor does played a big role. I know of a taxi driver who first voted PAP because of LKY when he was young. He voted opposition the previous elections but decided to vote PAP again this time because of LKY in hope of encouraging his son to do better.

No wonder why they hang LHL poster everywhere for the fact he is the son of LKY. It serves to remind voters of this.

 

[yellowarse]

I don't think AHPETC play saga is one factor, in fact it to the advantage of WP. But since voters generally don't take a interests on this issue, WP don't stand to gain much.

1. By itself, the AHPETC saga doesn't play a big part, but in a fearful climate (Najib/1MDB, bookies' lists showing wild swings to oppo, PAP scaremongering about not forming govt), it helps to reinforce the fear factor.

2. The AHPETC saga has pissed off hardcore opposition and WP supporters into continuing to vote oppo on the one hand. But on the other hand, it has instilled doubts in neutral swing voters (not just in WP wards but everywhere) about the ability of oppo parties to run TCs efficiently. Overall, nationwide, I think the latter effect is stronger. Remember it's always the swing voters who decide outcome.

LKY factor does played a big role.

If the elections were held in June, yes. But the effect has been diluted, with issues of fake degrees, PMET unemployment, MRT breakdowns, impending recession, compulsory MediShield Life premiums cropping up in the last few months. I think people give LKY's death too much credit.

 

[sense]

I doubt the AHPETC issue played a major role. Many other factors came into play. One thing I am certain - WP took 10 steps backwards and may not recover from this setback. All the PAP need to do before the next GE is throw more freebies out.

1. WP is now given a new lease of life for another 5 years in Aljunied and they better buck up and start performing.

2. Hope that SingFirst will continue their momentum and come 5 years time, TSJ is more prudent and pick those easier to win areas rather than impossible to win regions - picking TP is simply suicidal!

 

[sense]

She quit her previous job and went full time as a MP. Now she just lost her job. Residents whom she served now rejected her. This is the reality as an opposition MP. It is understandably disappointing for her.

Li Lian is the only good lady in WP that I feel sad. The rest are just too arrogant...

 

[Scrooball (clone)]

Li Lian is the only good lady in WP that I feel sad. The rest are just too arrogant...

No way! The ah bui Lian was just as arrogant. She challenged and continued to taunt the pap on the Punggol East fuckup. She deserved to lose her seat!