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<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=msghead><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=msghead vAlign=top><TD class=msgF width="1%" noWrap align=right>From: </TD><TD class=msgFname width="68%" noWrap>kojakbt_89 <NOBR></NOBR> </TD><TD class=msgDate width="30%" noWrap align=right>8:17 pm </TD></TR><TR class=msghead><TD class=msgT height=20 width="1%" noWrap align=right>To: </TD><TD class=msgTname width="68%" noWrap>ALL <NOBR></NOBR></TD><TD class=msgNum noWrap align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=msgleft rowSpan=4 width="1%"> </TD><TD class=wintiny noWrap align=right>30505.1 </TD></TR><TR><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR><TD class=msgtxt>Immigrants will exert heavy burden on limited public resources in Singapore 20 years down the road
March 24, 2010 by admin
Filed under Opinion
Leave a comment
http://www.temasekreview.com/2010/03/24/immigrants-will-exert-heavy-burden-on-limited-public-resources-30-years-down-the-road/
OPINION
During a polytechnic forum in September last year, a student asked Dr Vivian point-blank in his face why the government is allowing foreigners to compete with Singaporeans for job.
The feisty Dr Vivian shot back immediately:
“Would Singaporeans be willing to be taxed heavily to support the country’s ageing population in 20 years’ time? This would be the case if Singapore did not bring in foreign talent.”
Dr Vivian’s conjecture will only hold true if the immigrants have a higher birth rate than native Singaporeans and if they consume less public resources than them.
Both scenarios are unlikely to happen.
In 2003, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced his most ambitious plan to increase Singapore’s population to 6.5 million people by 2030.
(To put things in perspective, New Zealand, which is more than 370 times the size of Singapore has a population of only 4.3 million people.)
All of sudden without warning, the floodgates were flung open without any proper screening and Singapore was swarmed by foreigners who now make up 36 percent of Singapore’s population.
A population will only grow if its total fertility rate exceeds the minimum replacement rate of 2.1 which means that each woman should have two children on average.
Though the inflow of immigrants will increase Singapore’s population in the short-term, it will not boost its birth rate unless the newcomers and their descendents have more children than the locals.
The key reason behind Singaporeans not wanting to have more children is economic, due to a combination of five factors: unstable job, stagnant wages, increased cost of living, sky-rocketing HDB prices and increased stress.
Unless the new citizens live in the offshore islands or in ghettos, they are likely to be subjected to the same conditions as Singaporeans.
Not all immigrants are as rich as Jet Li. In fact, most of them are like middle-class Singaporeans living in HDB flats.
Will they be able to afford to have more children than Singaporeans?
It is highly improbable that the new immigrants will bear two or more children in Singapore given the same constraints in financial resources.
Their children will have a fertility rate closer to the national average of 1.2 rather than 2.1.
At the end of the day, Singapore’s fertility rate will not increase by much so long the limiting factors remain in place.
It is myopic of the PAP to mass import foreigners into Singapore at such an alarming rate now without realizing that they are only going to create another set of problems.
Though foreigners may help to support our aging population right now and in the near future, they will also grow old themselves in 20 to 30 years’ time. Who will come and support them then?
According to figures from the Home Affairs Ministry, the number of new citizens averages around 20,000 between the years 2007 – 2009.
Assuming it remains the same for the next twenty years, we will have an additional 400,000 new citizens.
The new citizens in their 40s now will be in their 60s and those in their 30s now will be in their 50s in twenty years’ time.
Some of them may fell ill along the way and become unfit to work. Others may succumb to sudden heart attacks or strokes and a rising number will be afflicted with chronic diseases like hypertension, diabetes mellitus and hyperlipidaemia.
Will the increased taxes paid by these immigrants help to offset the expected increase in public healthcare costs?
Singapore has a progressive tax system in which the top earners may the full income tax and the lowest income group pay no taxes at all.
No statistics are available on the income status of the new citizens though it is likely that they will mirror that of Singaporeans with about 20 – 30 percent in the lower income group and 40 – 60 percent in the middle-income group.
Even now, our public healthcare system is being stretched to its limits with chronic over-crowding at polyclinics and hospitals especially Tan Tock Seng Hospital, long waits for specialist appointments and shortage of doctors and nurses due to high turnover rates.
Though no official figures are available, anecdotal evidence on the ground suggest that almost 90 percent of Singapore-trained doctors will leave for the private sector once their 5-year bond with MOH ended if they are not undergoing further training to be specialists and more than half the nurses will leave or change professions each year.
To plug the gaps in manpower, MOH has resorted to recruiting more foreign doctors and nurses overseas without exploring ways of retaining their services within the public healthcare system.
Can our healthcare professionals cope with the increased demand on their services fueled by immigration?
Increasing the population blindly via immigration without any proper planning is a stop-gap measure which does not address the underlying causes of Singapore’s decline birth rates.
Ultimately, a nation’s population will only grow from natural births and not from import of foreigners elsewhere.
The PAP should tackle the problem right at its roots by improving the standards of living among ordinary Singaporeans so that they will be inclined to bear more children instead of taking an easy shortcut by turning to foreigners.
In fact, the relentless influx of foreigners may have contributed to the declining birth rates of Singaporeans as their increasing numbers has depressed the wages and increased the cost of living for Singaporeans, especially that of HDB flats – the very reasons why Singaporeans are not having children.
Unlike other developed countries, education and healthcare are not free in Singapore.
It costs alot to bring up a child and to support him/her all the way till university in Singapore.
If the PAP wants to encourage Singaporeans to have more children, it should first control the prices of HDB flats and reduce them to a more realistic and sustainable level.
The present prices are way too high for ordinary Singaporeans earning a median monthly income of around $2,600.
After deducting the mortgage loans for their flats and living expenses, a household will have little left for the children.
Not only will the continued inflow of immigrants not improve Singapore’s birth rates, it will compound the problem and create new ones such as escalating social tension and conflict.
What is Singapore’s ideal population? How many immigrants do we need? What is a reasonable birth rate to aim for?
It is time we realize that being a developed economy like the United States and Europe now, we can no longer grow at breath-taking speed like in the past.
The use of cheap foreign workers to keep our labor costs down and GDP growth high is no longer a viable option.
We have to accept the fact our population is aging and make contingency plans to tackle the “Silver Tsunami” which will hit us 20 years from now.
Bringing in middle-aged immigrants into Singapore is tantamount to adding more senior citizens into our population later on.
We need a more directed, comprehensive and holistic approach to our current immigration policies instead of increasing the population blindly via mass importing of foreigners from elsewhere.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
March 24, 2010 by admin
Filed under Opinion
Leave a comment
http://www.temasekreview.com/2010/03/24/immigrants-will-exert-heavy-burden-on-limited-public-resources-30-years-down-the-road/
OPINION
During a polytechnic forum in September last year, a student asked Dr Vivian point-blank in his face why the government is allowing foreigners to compete with Singaporeans for job.
The feisty Dr Vivian shot back immediately:
“Would Singaporeans be willing to be taxed heavily to support the country’s ageing population in 20 years’ time? This would be the case if Singapore did not bring in foreign talent.”
Dr Vivian’s conjecture will only hold true if the immigrants have a higher birth rate than native Singaporeans and if they consume less public resources than them.
Both scenarios are unlikely to happen.
In 2003, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced his most ambitious plan to increase Singapore’s population to 6.5 million people by 2030.
(To put things in perspective, New Zealand, which is more than 370 times the size of Singapore has a population of only 4.3 million people.)
All of sudden without warning, the floodgates were flung open without any proper screening and Singapore was swarmed by foreigners who now make up 36 percent of Singapore’s population.
A population will only grow if its total fertility rate exceeds the minimum replacement rate of 2.1 which means that each woman should have two children on average.
Though the inflow of immigrants will increase Singapore’s population in the short-term, it will not boost its birth rate unless the newcomers and their descendents have more children than the locals.
The key reason behind Singaporeans not wanting to have more children is economic, due to a combination of five factors: unstable job, stagnant wages, increased cost of living, sky-rocketing HDB prices and increased stress.
Unless the new citizens live in the offshore islands or in ghettos, they are likely to be subjected to the same conditions as Singaporeans.
Not all immigrants are as rich as Jet Li. In fact, most of them are like middle-class Singaporeans living in HDB flats.
Will they be able to afford to have more children than Singaporeans?
It is highly improbable that the new immigrants will bear two or more children in Singapore given the same constraints in financial resources.
Their children will have a fertility rate closer to the national average of 1.2 rather than 2.1.
At the end of the day, Singapore’s fertility rate will not increase by much so long the limiting factors remain in place.
It is myopic of the PAP to mass import foreigners into Singapore at such an alarming rate now without realizing that they are only going to create another set of problems.
Though foreigners may help to support our aging population right now and in the near future, they will also grow old themselves in 20 to 30 years’ time. Who will come and support them then?
According to figures from the Home Affairs Ministry, the number of new citizens averages around 20,000 between the years 2007 – 2009.
Assuming it remains the same for the next twenty years, we will have an additional 400,000 new citizens.
The new citizens in their 40s now will be in their 60s and those in their 30s now will be in their 50s in twenty years’ time.
Some of them may fell ill along the way and become unfit to work. Others may succumb to sudden heart attacks or strokes and a rising number will be afflicted with chronic diseases like hypertension, diabetes mellitus and hyperlipidaemia.
Will the increased taxes paid by these immigrants help to offset the expected increase in public healthcare costs?
Singapore has a progressive tax system in which the top earners may the full income tax and the lowest income group pay no taxes at all.
No statistics are available on the income status of the new citizens though it is likely that they will mirror that of Singaporeans with about 20 – 30 percent in the lower income group and 40 – 60 percent in the middle-income group.
Even now, our public healthcare system is being stretched to its limits with chronic over-crowding at polyclinics and hospitals especially Tan Tock Seng Hospital, long waits for specialist appointments and shortage of doctors and nurses due to high turnover rates.
Though no official figures are available, anecdotal evidence on the ground suggest that almost 90 percent of Singapore-trained doctors will leave for the private sector once their 5-year bond with MOH ended if they are not undergoing further training to be specialists and more than half the nurses will leave or change professions each year.
To plug the gaps in manpower, MOH has resorted to recruiting more foreign doctors and nurses overseas without exploring ways of retaining their services within the public healthcare system.
Can our healthcare professionals cope with the increased demand on their services fueled by immigration?
Increasing the population blindly via immigration without any proper planning is a stop-gap measure which does not address the underlying causes of Singapore’s decline birth rates.
Ultimately, a nation’s population will only grow from natural births and not from import of foreigners elsewhere.
The PAP should tackle the problem right at its roots by improving the standards of living among ordinary Singaporeans so that they will be inclined to bear more children instead of taking an easy shortcut by turning to foreigners.
In fact, the relentless influx of foreigners may have contributed to the declining birth rates of Singaporeans as their increasing numbers has depressed the wages and increased the cost of living for Singaporeans, especially that of HDB flats – the very reasons why Singaporeans are not having children.
Unlike other developed countries, education and healthcare are not free in Singapore.
It costs alot to bring up a child and to support him/her all the way till university in Singapore.
If the PAP wants to encourage Singaporeans to have more children, it should first control the prices of HDB flats and reduce them to a more realistic and sustainable level.
The present prices are way too high for ordinary Singaporeans earning a median monthly income of around $2,600.
After deducting the mortgage loans for their flats and living expenses, a household will have little left for the children.
Not only will the continued inflow of immigrants not improve Singapore’s birth rates, it will compound the problem and create new ones such as escalating social tension and conflict.
What is Singapore’s ideal population? How many immigrants do we need? What is a reasonable birth rate to aim for?
It is time we realize that being a developed economy like the United States and Europe now, we can no longer grow at breath-taking speed like in the past.
The use of cheap foreign workers to keep our labor costs down and GDP growth high is no longer a viable option.
We have to accept the fact our population is aging and make contingency plans to tackle the “Silver Tsunami” which will hit us 20 years from now.
Bringing in middle-aged immigrants into Singapore is tantamount to adding more senior citizens into our population later on.
We need a more directed, comprehensive and holistic approach to our current immigration policies instead of increasing the population blindly via mass importing of foreigners from elsewhere.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
