Unlinked cases SURGES in Singapore... Spiralling out of conrtrol!!!

[SBFNews]

Lol!

It is fine if people decide to go out and mingle so they can catch the virus.

But it you are scared and you still go out to get your cheap kopi at coffee shop then it really makes no sense!

@Leongsam I am a bit confused as to what you are advocating.

On one hand you say people should go out and get exposed to the virus quickly. Get it over with. The more people get it the better. If it happens over a shorter period then we can all get back to normal.

So basically you prefer if it spreads more and fast.

When it comes to wearing masks you say wearing masks will increase the risk of people getting infected because they dont know not to touch the masks. Hence wearing masks is "bad"? Because you increase your risk of getting the virus?

Shouldn't you be encouraging people to wear masks so they can catch the virus and we can go herd immunity strategy wise?

But you tell people NOT to wear masks.

So which side are you on?

He is confused as his assets have been under downward pressure. Cannot think straight liao. Confused and lost

 

[Leongsam]

Lol!

It is fine if people decide to go out and mingle so they can catch the virus.

But it you are scared and you still go out to get your cheap kopi at coffee shop then it really makes no sense!

@Leongsam I am a bit confused as to what you are advocating.

On one hand you say people should go out and get exposed to the virus quickly. Get it over with. The more people get it the better. If it happens over a shorter period then we can all get back to normal.

So basically you prefer if it spreads more and fast.

When it comes to wearing masks you say wearing masks will increase the risk of people getting infected because they dont know not to touch the masks. Hence wearing masks is "bad"? Because you increase your risk of getting the virus?

Shouldn't you be encouraging people to wear masks so they can catch the virus and we can go herd immunity strategy wise?

But you tell people NOT to wear masks.

So which side are you on?

I'm on the side of correcting fallacies and misconceptions which are

1) Masks will help when they actually make things worse.

2) That the mortality rate is 2.3% or more when it is actually less than 0.1%.

When it comes to whether or not to lockdown I'm ambivalent if it really helps save some lives then I'm all for it as though death is a statistic in the grand scheme of things it is still a painful experience for those who have to grieve. However this state of suspended animation cannot go on forever. Governments have to give certainty so that people can plan their strategy. There will be those who are running out of money for example and if you say lockdown for 1 month then it has to end after a month so that people can budget their expenditure during these times. You cannot simply leave the country in limbo with nobody having a clue as to how long their predicament will last.

However from a purely scientific standpoint I would say let's all get back to work because I'm reasonably confident that the mortality rate is no worse than a bad flu year. It's easy for me to say that because I'm not holding an appointment of advisor to the PM or some President so I don't have to be super conservative. That does not alter the fact that all the data thus far says that infection rate is definitely more than 1% of the total population now.

 

[nayr69sg]

I'm on the side of correcting fallacies and misconceptions which are

1) Masks will help when they actually make things worse.

2) That the mortality rate is 2.3% or more when it is actually less than 0.1%.

When it comes to whether or not to lockdown I'm ambivalent if it really helps save some lives then I'm all for it as though death is a statistic in the grand scheme of things it is still a painful experience for those who have to grieve. However it cannot go on forever. Governments have to give certainty so that people can plan their strategy. There will be those who are running out of money for example and if you say lockdown for 1 month then it has to end after a month so that people can budget their expenditure during these times. You cannot simply leave the country in limbo with nobody having a clue as to how long their predicament will last.

However from a purely scientific standpoint I would say let's all get back to work because I'm reasonably confident that the mortality rate is no worse than a bad flu year. It's easy for me to say that because I'm not holding an appointment of advisor to the PM or some President so I don't have to be super conservative. That does not alter the fact that all the data thus far says that infection rate is definitely more than 1% of the total population now.

Thanks for clarifying.

I think at present moment nobody is really sure enough. Hence all this fibbing.

I am mentally prepared for this to last 1 to 2 years.

 

[Leongsam]

Thanks for clarifying.

I think at present moment nobody is really sure enough. Hence all this fibbing.

I am mentally prepared for this to last 1 to 2 years.

The official mouthpieces ie CDC etc are not being honest though. They are not clearly explaining the difference between Case Fatality Rate and Infection Mortality Rate.

They are publicising it as if it is the same thing when it is not. When reports and graphs use the wrong terminology it scares people and they are making no effort to set the record straight. That is what surprises me the most.

 

[nayr69sg]

The official mouthpieces ie CDC etc are not being honest though. They are not clearly explaining the difference between Case Fatality Rate and Infection Mortality Rate.

They are publicising it as if it is the same thing when it is not. When reports and graphs use the wrong terminology it scares people and they are making no effort to set the record straight. That is what surprises me the most.

It is political.

Keep everyone confused.

 

[kkbutterfly]

Yes so no need for SHN anymore.
Let the virus infect the entire population and run its course. Prepare for 3% mortality. Pap can save a lot of Pioneer handouts

yes.fittest survive.

 

[Leongsam]

It is political.

Keep everyone confused.

Yes this is as scary as hell. It means that democracy, bill of rights etc are not really worth the paper they are printed on.

In theory any world leader can use emergency powers to turn the whole country into a police state within 24 hours and keep it locked down indefinitely. You don't even need a compliant judiciary all you need is a compliant chief medical officer.

 

[LaoTze]

Kopi C is something you can make at home. Eat home cooked food & beverages from now on.

In any case, if you are not feeling well, you have to lock yourself down.

Dont eat home cook food.
conserve your supplies and keep topping up stockpile and not use stockpile of food
buy take away from hawkers .

Hawkers restaurant must buy in bulk and shortage will hit them first
Use them as trip wire as gaberment will tell lies and spin that all is well.
Words can lie to you.
Footprints cannot lie to you.

You then be glad u got food at home to cook and eat.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

I'm on the side of correcting fallacies and misconceptions which are


2) That the mortality rate is 2.3% or more when it is actually less than 0.1%.

I think that many people understand your statistics, but disagree on the interpretation.

The graphs are pretty straightforward. What we have disagreed on is primarily whether to assume a certain number of asymptomatic cases or cases where they were never diagnosed because their symptoms were either mild, or test kits were not provided due to shortages and sheer lack of resources.

My take has always been that guesswork is dangerous. Those who want to claim a low mortality rate will be inclined to assume as many untested cases as possible. Using anecdotes and third-person tales to bolster such claims is unscientific at best. Who knows whether people are exaggerating, or simply making statements out of fear and uncertainty?

I have worked with insurers in the past. I can tell you they are scared because they know claims are going to soar and they will suffer tremendous losses. Not from the death rate per se. Death claims are trivial shit to them. What they are deathly scared of (pardon the pun) is hospitalization and other related accident and health insurance. They know the shitstorm is coming. Their actuaries and statisticians operate without political bias, and solely for the interest of the company, so they have no reason to inflate numbers or to exaggerate just to make their CEOs mad and angry.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Under the new Singapore CCB rules, the authorities can enter private property without a warrant or court order, with the aim of dispersing any gathering between non-family members regardless of the size or the nature of the gathering.

 

[Leongsam]

I think that many people understand your statistics, but disagree on the interpretation.

The graphs are pretty straightforward. What we have disagreed on is primarily whether to assume a certain number of asymptomatic cases or cases where they were never diagnosed because their symptoms were either mild, or test kits were not provided due to shortages and sheer lack of resources.

My take has always been that guesswork is dangerous. Those who want to claim a low mortality rate will be inclined to assume as many untested cases as possible. Using anecdotes and third-person tales to bolster such claims is unscientific at best. Who knows whether people are exaggerating, or simply making statements out of fear and uncertainty?

I have worked with insurers in the past. I can tell you they are scared because they know claims are going to soar and they will suffer tremendous losses. Not from the death rate per se. Death claims are trivial shit to them. What they are deathly scared of (pardon the pun) is hospitalization and other related accident and health insurance. They know the shitstorm is coming. Their actuaries and statisticians operate without political bias, and solely for the interest of the company, so they have no reason to inflate numbers or to exaggerate just to make their CEOs mad and angry.

It's not guesswork it's statistical sampling. Of course there is an error rate eg for political pollsters there is always an addendum of +/-3% error based on the sample size and other factors.

For the true Covid19 infection rate statistical sampling will work too provided the testing is accurate and the sample chosen is truly representative.

For Covid-19 we have very large samples approaching 100% of the segment of population that we are studying.

The Italian town of Vò tested everybody and found during the first round of testing that 3% were positive although more than half were showing no symptoms at all.

Iceland reports more than 1% testing positive.

The Theodore Roosevelt crew have returned 10% positive after 93% of the crew have been tested.

The only issue now is just how random these samples are.

We will never arrive at the same figure for the whole world so we work within a range. Worst case is 1%. Best case is 10%.

So if we look at the deaths and calculate the number infected using statistical methods none of the data sets shows anything near 2.3% which is the case mortality rate not the mortality rate of the infection. The worst case of 1% works out to a mortality rate of under 0.1%. The best case scenario of 10% would make it a factor of 10 lower. Both would work out to be within the same range as influenza.

Of course I could be wrong and if new data turns up I'll be the first to admit that I used flawed data. However my errors of have zero consequences for anyone else. Nobody is losing their jobs because of my ramblings in this forum.

However what the governments around the world are doing is using e data which everyone knows is seriously flawed to formulate policies that are putting millions out of work and destroying whole economies.

Some governments are rich enough to compensate businesses and individuals somewhat eg Singapore. However spare a thought for those 3rd world countries where huge numbers depend on the tourist dollar to put food on the table. Their income has gone from low to absolute zero with no government assistance at all.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Under the new Singapore CCB rules, the authorities can enter private property without a warrant or court order, with the aim of dispersing any gathering between non-family members regardless of the size or the nature of the gathering.

Wats the difference ? In the past pap did this sort of things regularly. It's called illegal assembly. Some remember it as the white terror