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TH's Performance Appraisal Time - STI Will Soar

TracyTan866 said:
I think so. As I said in post #1, Temasek Holdings will be pushing their stable of companies to look good on 31 Dec.Your opinion?
Click to expand...
I am generally hopeless with stocks and what-nots; but I am learning. I have to say, your analysis seems pretty spot on. Let's see if other Temasek related companies start buying their shares back at high prices. Is SIA one? Would be interesting to see their price over the next 2 weeks.
 
McDonaldsKid said:
I am generally hopeless with stocks and what-nots; but I am learning. I have to say, your analysis seems pretty spot on. Let's see if other Temasek related companies start buying their shares back at high prices. Is SIA one? Would be interesting to see their price over the next 2 weeks.
Click to expand...

Yes, SIA is part of TH
 
McDonaldsKid said:
I am generally hopeless with stocks and what-nots; but I am learning. I have to say, your analysis seems pretty spot on. Let's see if other Temasek related companies start buying their shares back at high prices. Is SIA one? Would be interesting to see their price over the next 2 weeks.
Click to expand...
Hi McDonaldsKid,

Did you see my post#49 yesterday?

Hope you bought kep corp yesterday

Kep Corp is traded at 8.87 now. A rise of 2.1%. That's good profit for one day
 
TracyTan866 said:
Hi McDonaldsKid,Did you see my post#49 yesterday?Hope you bought kep corp yesterdayKep Corp is traded at 8.87 now. A rise of 2.1%. That's good profit for one day
Click to expand...
Cheers Tracy, I saw that. Waiting for it go to $9 before letting go. Fingers crossed it shoots up next week!
 
Merl Haggard said:
China Stocks Rise Most in Three Weeks as Machinery Shares Surge:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-25/china-s-stock-futures-rise-on-bets-recent-losses-are-excessive.html
Click to expand...


file_aa1.gif




Well done 2822 & 2823!

Yesterday surged 100 plus pts and today surged another 85 pts.
 
Merl Haggard said:
I hoot 2822 and 2823 at HKSE at around HK$11 and still haven't gotten out.

Waiting for SSEC to reach 4500-5000.
Click to expand...



A great start to my New Year.

Today 2822 & 2823 close at HK$14.52 and HK$13.52 with turnover of 146,666,063 & 257,758,517 shares respectively compared to SGX miserable total turnover of S$1,072,126,131.

The turnover in value of just two HSI counters 2822 & 2823 is more than SGX's total turnover for today.

Am riding on more than 1.2m HKD in paper profit.

Made a damn good decision to abandon SGX for HKI and SSEC two months ago.
 
Oh I had forgotten this end of the pool. 60cents gets you excited? Ok then
 

Only thing I like about Professor Tommy What His Name
Is he introduced me to one of the finest books in my library
Obviously the farktards at Manpower Ministry didn't read it
But any ambassador to United Nations who fails to do anything
To get his country to sign and ratify the International Covenant
On Civil and Political Rights is delinquent in his duties full stop



http://www.amazon.com/The-Art-Long-View-Uncertain/dp/0385267320

When I was a young intern at Royal Dutch Shell 30 years ago, I worked in the famous department where scenario planning was invented. I calculated, to two decimal points, the impact on the markets for the major petroleum products for oil price scenarios between US$20 and US$40 a barrel.

Within six months the price of Brent Crude hit US$10! So I am unsurprised that, when the oil price was at US$110 last January, the world’s most seasoned and highly paid oil analysts missed the looming fall to US$57.

However, it was not the black gold that produced the biggest shock wave of the year, but the greenback. The US dollar has had its best year in the past 17; rising against all of its 31 major peers save one – our very own Hong Kong dollar. This means that every time Hong Kong investors invested a dollar overseas in 2014, the currency was always against us. Non-US dollar investors in dollar assets however received a tailwind from the charging buck.

The euro fell around 12 per cent against the US dollar last year, meaning that while the European STOXX index was up 1 per cent locally, a dollar-based investor actually lost 11 per cent. However, a European investor investing in long-dated US bonds happily trousered a 37 per cent return from the biggest US Treasury rally in three years, which took bond yields down 28 per cent, making 2014 yet another good year for bond investors.

The depreciation of sterling took a 6 per cent bite out of the minus 3 per cent local equity return. The fall of over 8 per cent in the aussie, caused a loss of over 7 per cent for US dollar holders of the Sydney stock exchange. The Nikkei rose 7 per cent in the year but lost 6 per cent in US dollars as the yen tumbled. Argentina was up 59 per cent locally and just 24 per cent in US dollars.

The yuan was relatively strong, losing only 2.5 per cent, and that allowed the bumper 52 per cent jump in A shares on the Shanghai Composite Index to come through. India’s Nifty index was a good place to be as it rose 32 per cent, with the rupee losing just 3 per cent.

In contrast, the Hang Seng Index took a year to break into positive territory by a small margin. While this may seem pathetic, it’s the same lesson, one-oh-one. Our market didn’t have to go up for a euro investor to feel pleased. They made a cool 12 per cent just by parking their money in Hong Kong.

The Russian rouble sunk 39 per cent, holed by oil and sanctions, but not as badly as its neighbour the Ukrainian hryvnia, which collapsed nearly 46 per cent. The biggest so-called currency meltdown was from bitcoin; down 57 per cent. Rats and sinking ships come to mind.

One of the biggest mantras in investment is to remember that currency is the canvas on which investment is painted. It takes a year like 2014 to show that often what you gain on the stock market you can lose on the currency.

The exception is the US markets, which behaved contrary to the mantra – being driven largely by domestic investors. The Dow broke 18,000 for the first time, breaking all-time highs a record 38 times. The S&P 500 bust 53 highs, whilst climbing 13 per cent. The small stock Russell 2000 index crept up just 4 per cent - but broke through its own all-time high. The technology-heavy NASDAQ printed a rise of 15 per cent, despite poor returns from Amazon (minus 22 per cent) and Google (down 5 per cent).

Gold ended slightly down. It is an asset denominated in US dollars and behaved like a proxy of US dollar cash all year.

Successful trades are highlighted at year-ends – especially if one shorted iron ore (down 46 per cent in 2014) and went long the Shanghai stock market, doubling your money.

But there will be some who took profits from a booming late 2013 US equity market to invest in oil and who are now sitting on a 61 per cent loss. And if that trade was made with borrowed dollars, it would be much worse.

Extraordinary price moves will always catch somebody out. It may be companies who borrowed US dollars and now have to repay using depreciated local currency. It may be the over-reliant oil producing countries in Africa, the Americas, Europe and the Middle East who are unable to balance their books in the near term.

We are likely to be only months - perhaps days - away from news of a big corporate, or country, or bank default due to the dramatic volatility in the US dollar and oil, with 2015 already shaping up to be an exciting year.

Richard Harris of Port Shelter has been in the investment industry in Asia for 35 years as an investment manager and expert adviser to both the investment and the legal communities.

http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1672647/what-you-should-have-bought-or-sold-last-year
 
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