<TABLE class=forumline border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=row1 vAlign=top width=150 align=left>bohiulan
Joined: 13 Jan 2011
Posts: 118
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Posted: Sat May 14, 2011 10:13 pm Post subject: Three more GRCs may fall to opposition in next GE</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap>
</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><HR></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>No wonder Lao Goh going back to work the ground at Marine Parade?
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="90%" align=center><TBODY><TR><TD>Quote:</TD></TR><TR><TD class=quote>
Three more GRCs may fall to opposition in next GE
With Aljunied GRC falling into the hands of the Workers Party thereby shattering the myth that GRCs are impregnable PAP ‘fortresses’, three more GRCs are in the danger of falling into opposition’s hands in the next general election, assuming that their boundaries remain unchanged.
The three ‘danger’ GRCs for the PAP are:
1. East Coast GRC (PAP won only 54.3 percent of the votes)
2. Marine Parade GRC (56.5 percent)
3. Tampines GRC (57.2 percent)
The opposition fielded relatively weak teams in these GRCs. The Workers Party’s ‘B’ team led by Eric Tan contested in East Coast GRC and improved on its result of 37 percent in 2006. The NSP teams for Tampines and Marine Parade GRCs were not led by any heavy-weight opposition leaders.
By the next general election, the opposition is likely to be able to field stronger teams with a better slate of candidates in these GRCs.
The PAP won Aljunied GRC in the 2006 election with 56.3 percent of the valid votes. There was a near 10 percent swing in the votes towards the Workers’ Party 5 years later. A mere 8 percent swing in votes will see the PAP losing these three GRCs which is not an impossible scenario given that some GRCs experienced a vote swing of as high as 14 percent (Sembawang GRC).
To compound the problem, Marine Parade and East Coast GRCs lie next to Aljunied GRC. The ‘Hougang effect’ – with the precincts next to Hougang all being won by WP was instrumental to its victory in Aljunied GRC. Similarly, the precincts in these two GRCs close to Aljunied GRC may experience similiar swing in votes by the next general election assuming WP runs Aljunied well.
Furthermore, there may be changes in the anchor ministers in these GRCs five years later. Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong will be 74 then and is likely to retire. New ministers being parachuted from outside usually do not do well as exemplified by Lim Swee Say who was moved from Holland-Bukit Timah GRC to East Coast GRC.
Even the age-old PAP tactic of rampant gerry-mandering by redrawing the boundaries may not help as all three GRCs lie in the eastern parts of Singapore unless they are absorbed into Ang Mo Kio and Tanjong Pagar GRCs with Changi becoming part of Tanjong Pagar and Bedok coming under Ang Mo Kio.
Given the possible loss of three GRCs which may see the PAP being denied its traditional two-third majority in parliament, it may be tempted to limit the damage by subdividing these three GRCs into smaller three-person GRCs and SMCs.
WP’s win in Aljunied GRC has dented the aura of invincibility of the PAP. The opposition will clamor for the GRCs and send its best candidates there in the next general election. With huge losses expected in the event of a freak election, the PAP may have no choice but to do away with the GRC system once and for all.
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Brendan </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Joined: 13 Jan 2011
Posts: 118
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Posted: Sat May 14, 2011 10:13 pm Post subject: Three more GRCs may fall to opposition in next GE</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap>
</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><HR></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>No wonder Lao Goh going back to work the ground at Marine Parade? <TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="90%" align=center><TBODY><TR><TD>Quote:</TD></TR><TR><TD class=quote>
Three more GRCs may fall to opposition in next GE
With Aljunied GRC falling into the hands of the Workers Party thereby shattering the myth that GRCs are impregnable PAP ‘fortresses’, three more GRCs are in the danger of falling into opposition’s hands in the next general election, assuming that their boundaries remain unchanged.
The three ‘danger’ GRCs for the PAP are:
1. East Coast GRC (PAP won only 54.3 percent of the votes)
2. Marine Parade GRC (56.5 percent)
3. Tampines GRC (57.2 percent)
The opposition fielded relatively weak teams in these GRCs. The Workers Party’s ‘B’ team led by Eric Tan contested in East Coast GRC and improved on its result of 37 percent in 2006. The NSP teams for Tampines and Marine Parade GRCs were not led by any heavy-weight opposition leaders.
By the next general election, the opposition is likely to be able to field stronger teams with a better slate of candidates in these GRCs.
The PAP won Aljunied GRC in the 2006 election with 56.3 percent of the valid votes. There was a near 10 percent swing in the votes towards the Workers’ Party 5 years later. A mere 8 percent swing in votes will see the PAP losing these three GRCs which is not an impossible scenario given that some GRCs experienced a vote swing of as high as 14 percent (Sembawang GRC).
To compound the problem, Marine Parade and East Coast GRCs lie next to Aljunied GRC. The ‘Hougang effect’ – with the precincts next to Hougang all being won by WP was instrumental to its victory in Aljunied GRC. Similarly, the precincts in these two GRCs close to Aljunied GRC may experience similiar swing in votes by the next general election assuming WP runs Aljunied well.
Furthermore, there may be changes in the anchor ministers in these GRCs five years later. Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong will be 74 then and is likely to retire. New ministers being parachuted from outside usually do not do well as exemplified by Lim Swee Say who was moved from Holland-Bukit Timah GRC to East Coast GRC.
Even the age-old PAP tactic of rampant gerry-mandering by redrawing the boundaries may not help as all three GRCs lie in the eastern parts of Singapore unless they are absorbed into Ang Mo Kio and Tanjong Pagar GRCs with Changi becoming part of Tanjong Pagar and Bedok coming under Ang Mo Kio.
Given the possible loss of three GRCs which may see the PAP being denied its traditional two-third majority in parliament, it may be tempted to limit the damage by subdividing these three GRCs into smaller three-person GRCs and SMCs.
WP’s win in Aljunied GRC has dented the aura of invincibility of the PAP. The opposition will clamor for the GRCs and send its best candidates there in the next general election. With huge losses expected in the event of a freak election, the PAP may have no choice but to do away with the GRC system once and for all.
.
Brendan </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
