The Irrational Fear and the cost of the Wuhan Virus, Is it worth it?

[Hypocrite-The]

Commentary: COVID-19 may be a mild illness for most people
But it is too early to conclude on the death rate and infectivity of COVID-19 as its transmission is still unpredictable, say Professor Paul Ananth Tambyah and Dr Jyoti Somani.
Tourists walking along the Cavenagh Bridge (Photo: Jeremy Long)Bookmark
SINGAPORE: The novel coronavirus, which the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) now calls SARS-CoV-2 as of Feb 11, causes the disease COVID-19. The World Health Organization announced the name of this new disease on the same day.
The virus SARS-CoV-2 is from the same family as SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome).
NOT AS DEADLY AS SARS?
It is still too early to tell what is the actual death rate associated with the COVID-19. Many of the people newly infected with the virus are still in hospital or intensive care units so we will not know their outcomes until much later.
READ: Commentary: Japan shows how not to deal with a COVID-19 outbreak
For the record, the earliest reports of SARS in leading medical journals cited a death rate of 2 per cent, which later turned out to be higher. It is also not easy to compare SARS and COVID-19 as we did not have a confirmatory lab test until late in the SARS outbreak.
As a result, most of the cases identified globally in March and April 2003, which was about four to six months after the disease first broke, were severe ones, which made the death rate appear higher than it actually was.
In fact, when the SARS test became widely available in Singapore in May 2003, a number of patients were re-classified based on the results of the laboratory tests. As a result, the death rate for SARS in Singapore dropped from 33 out of 200 or 16.5 per cent to 33 out of 240 or 13.8 per cent.
Worldwide, the final death rate was 9.6 per cent.
In contrast, we had accurate diagnostic tests for COVID-19 very early in the outbreak so many individuals with milder diseases have been identified. They would not have been detected if the criteria used were based on clinical severity.
In contrast to both SARS and COVID-19, influenza rarely causes death directly. Severe influenza can cause pneumonia or brain infections but these tend to be rare and in people who have weak immune systems. Influenza mainly causes death by worsening underlying heart or lung problems in older people.
In temperate countries, influenza typically causes seasonal outbreaks during the winter seasons, and outbreaks tend to be worse when there is a shift or major change in the type of influenza circulating that year.
READ: Commentary: Hot and humid weather may end the novel coronavirus – as well as the development of a vaccine
We do not know about the seasonality of COVID-19 yet but SARS disappeared with the warm weather in China and we hope that this will be the case with COVID-19. So, even if COVID-19 returns next year, many people will have some immunity to it and so, we expect that it will not be so bad.
RATES OF TRANSMISSION VERY VARIABLE
Just like the death rates, the infectivity of the COVID-19 virus is still not known.
READ: Commentary: Outbreaks of diseases make us exaggerate or under-estimate risks. The COVID-19 shows that
So far we can observe that while it has spread rapidly in certain settings, there have not been documented transmissions in other circumstances.
In that sense, it is closer to SARS, with occasional “super spreading events” such as in the example of the Amoy Gardens in Hong Kong for SARS, where 329 residents of the estate had been infected with 42 of them dying, and the Princess Dream cruise ship for COVID-19, as well as the very recent large church related outbreak in South Korea.
The Diamond Princess is seen here through a fence at Daikoku Pier Cruise Terminal in Yokohama, south of Tokyo, Japan, Feb 1, 2020. (Photo: Reuters/Issei Kato)
On the other hand though, except for these cases, the rates of transmission appear to be relatively low with most clusters in Singapore and other settings involving fewer than 10 people.
This is different from influenza, which tends to spread rapidly especially if there is a new strain with a high attack rate – meaning that many people in one setting such as a family or office will be infected when one person is infected.
READ: Commentary: In Hong Kong, the COVID-19 outbreak sent shockwaves but could reinvigorate protests
Part of the reason that Influenza spreads so fast is that it is infectious usually one day, and sometimes two days, before full-blown symptoms manifest themselves.
Similarly, COVID-19 has reports of transmission before the onset of symptoms. There is some early evidence with COVID-19 that the viral shedding from the throat and nose is higher and occurs very early in the infection and then decreases over time.
This is different from asymptomatic transmission of Hepatitis B or C for example. For the Hepatitis B and C viruses, people can be truly asymptomatic for months and years but still spread the virus to their sexual partners or through shared injections.
In contrast, according to reports, most COVID-19 patients who are infectious when asymptomatic go on to show symptoms within a few days, just like patients with influenza.
KIDS AND HEALTHCARE WORKERS
There are however two groups of people who have been affected differently by the virus. The first is children who may not be as vulnerable to the disease as adults.
Both SARS and MERS did not infect many children. They also tended to have much milder symptoms when infected. Influenza also causes mild infection in children, as does COVID-19.
However, children with influenza tend to shed more virus and for longer, thus often making the adults around them sick. We do not know if we will see children with minimal symptoms who still shed the virus with COVID-19.
READ: Commentary: Hit hard by COVID-19, Singapore Airlines may need to pursue deeper capacity cuts
Another difference between influenza, SARS and COVID-19 is the impact on healthcare workers. While there is a common belief that unvaccinated healthcare workers aided in the spread of influenza among patients, especially in nursing homes, there are no reports of healthcare-associated influenza causing severe disease and death among healthcare workers.
Unfortunately, healthcare worker infections and deaths have been a feature of SARS and have also appeared during COVID-19. In Singapore, however, we are well-prepared with the lessons learned from SARS, so healthcare workers are well-protected this time round.
STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH COVID-19
With the novel H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic, Singapore and many other countries initially adopted a containment approach by isolating all infected individuals (initially travellers from the Americas) and quarantining their contacts.
NCID healthcare staff bid farewell to Mrs Zhang (fourth from left), who is cleared of the virus. Mrs Zhang is wearing a mask as she would like to remain anonymous. (Photo: Ministry of Health / Mrs Zhang)
This was followed soon after by a mitigation strategy when the numbers got too high for this to practically continue.
In mitigation, the sickest patients were identified for treatment and isolation and efforts were focused on preventing infection of the vulnerable population.

 

[sweetiepie]

Commentary: COVID-19 may be a mild illness for most people
But it is too early to conclude on the death rate and infectivity of COVID-19 as its transmission is still unpredictable, say Professor Paul Ananth Tambyah and Dr Jyoti Somani.
Tourists walking along the Cavenagh Bridge (Photo: Jeremy Long)Bookmark
SINGAPORE: The novel coronavirus, which the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) now calls SARS-CoV-2 as of Feb 11, causes the disease COVID-19. The World Health Organization announced the name of this new disease on the same day.
The virus SARS-CoV-2 is from the same family as SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome).
NOT AS DEADLY AS SARS?
It is still too early to tell what is the actual death rate associated with the COVID-19. Many of the people newly infected with the virus are still in hospital or intensive care units so we will not know their outcomes until much later.
READ: Commentary: Japan shows how not to deal with a COVID-19 outbreak
For the record, the earliest reports of SARS in leading medical journals cited a death rate of 2 per cent, which later turned out to be higher. It is also not easy to compare SARS and COVID-19 as we did not have a confirmatory lab test until late in the SARS outbreak.
As a result, most of the cases identified globally in March and April 2003, which was about four to six months after the disease first broke, were severe ones, which made the death rate appear higher than it actually was.
In fact, when the SARS test became widely available in Singapore in May 2003, a number of patients were re-classified based on the results of the laboratory tests. As a result, the death rate for SARS in Singapore dropped from 33 out of 200 or 16.5 per cent to 33 out of 240 or 13.8 per cent.
Worldwide, the final death rate was 9.6 per cent.
In contrast, we had accurate diagnostic tests for COVID-19 very early in the outbreak so many individuals with milder diseases have been identified. They would not have been detected if the criteria used were based on clinical severity.
In contrast to both SARS and COVID-19, influenza rarely causes death directly. Severe influenza can cause pneumonia or brain infections but these tend to be rare and in people who have weak immune systems. Influenza mainly causes death by worsening underlying heart or lung problems in older people.
In temperate countries, influenza typically causes seasonal outbreaks during the winter seasons, and outbreaks tend to be worse when there is a shift or major change in the type of influenza circulating that year.
READ: Commentary: Hot and humid weather may end the novel coronavirus – as well as the development of a vaccine
We do not know about the seasonality of COVID-19 yet but SARS disappeared with the warm weather in China and we hope that this will be the case with COVID-19. So, even if COVID-19 returns next year, many people will have some immunity to it and so, we expect that it will not be so bad.
RATES OF TRANSMISSION VERY VARIABLE
Just like the death rates, the infectivity of the COVID-19 virus is still not known.
READ: Commentary: Outbreaks of diseases make us exaggerate or under-estimate risks. The COVID-19 shows that
So far we can observe that while it has spread rapidly in certain settings, there have not been documented transmissions in other circumstances.
In that sense, it is closer to SARS, with occasional “super spreading events” such as in the example of the Amoy Gardens in Hong Kong for SARS, where 329 residents of the estate had been infected with 42 of them dying, and the Princess Dream cruise ship for COVID-19, as well as the very recent large church related outbreak in South Korea.
The Diamond Princess is seen here through a fence at Daikoku Pier Cruise Terminal in Yokohama, south of Tokyo, Japan, Feb 1, 2020. (Photo: Reuters/Issei Kato)
On the other hand though, except for these cases, the rates of transmission appear to be relatively low with most clusters in Singapore and other settings involving fewer than 10 people.
This is different from influenza, which tends to spread rapidly especially if there is a new strain with a high attack rate – meaning that many people in one setting such as a family or office will be infected when one person is infected.
READ: Commentary: In Hong Kong, the COVID-19 outbreak sent shockwaves but could reinvigorate protests
Part of the reason that Influenza spreads so fast is that it is infectious usually one day, and sometimes two days, before full-blown symptoms manifest themselves.
Similarly, COVID-19 has reports of transmission before the onset of symptoms. There is some early evidence with COVID-19 that the viral shedding from the throat and nose is higher and occurs very early in the infection and then decreases over time.
This is different from asymptomatic transmission of Hepatitis B or C for example. For the Hepatitis B and C viruses, people can be truly asymptomatic for months and years but still spread the virus to their sexual partners or through shared injections.
In contrast, according to reports, most COVID-19 patients who are infectious when asymptomatic go on to show symptoms within a few days, just like patients with influenza.
KIDS AND HEALTHCARE WORKERS
There are however two groups of people who have been affected differently by the virus. The first is children who may not be as vulnerable to the disease as adults.
Both SARS and MERS did not infect many children. They also tended to have much milder symptoms when infected. Influenza also causes mild infection in children, as does COVID-19.
However, children with influenza tend to shed more virus and for longer, thus often making the adults around them sick. We do not know if we will see children with minimal symptoms who still shed the virus with COVID-19.
READ: Commentary: Hit hard by COVID-19, Singapore Airlines may need to pursue deeper capacity cuts
Another difference between influenza, SARS and COVID-19 is the impact on healthcare workers. While there is a common belief that unvaccinated healthcare workers aided in the spread of influenza among patients, especially in nursing homes, there are no reports of healthcare-associated influenza causing severe disease and death among healthcare workers.
Unfortunately, healthcare worker infections and deaths have been a feature of SARS and have also appeared during COVID-19. In Singapore, however, we are well-prepared with the lessons learned from SARS, so healthcare workers are well-protected this time round.
STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH COVID-19
With the novel H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic, Singapore and many other countries initially adopted a containment approach by isolating all infected individuals (initially travellers from the Americas) and quarantining their contacts.
NCID healthcare staff bid farewell to Mrs Zhang (fourth from left), who is cleared of the virus. Mrs Zhang is wearing a mask as she would like to remain anonymous. (Photo: Ministry of Health / Mrs Zhang)
This was followed soon after by a mitigation strategy when the numbers got too high for this to practically continue.
In mitigation, the sickest patients were identified for treatment and isolation and efforts were focused on preventing infection of the vulnerable population.

KNN the next question should be is it from now most people on earth will lead a life full of mild sickness KNN

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Economic contagion spreads beyond China to other Asian economies: Poll
FILE PHOTO: Workers wearing face masks rope a container ship at a port in Qingdao, Shandong province, China February 11, 2020. China Daily via REUTERS
26 Feb 2020 09:24AM
(Updated: 26 Feb 2020 09:40AM)
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SHANGHAI: The effects of the coronavirus outbreak are likely to reverberate beyond China as most major economies in the region are expected to either slow down significantly, halt or shrink outright in the current quarter, a Reuters poll found.
Many Asian economies, which were just limping back to growth from the spillover effects of the 18-month long US-China trade dispute, were again dealt a blow by the outbreak, which has shut down businesses and cities.
READ: China reports 71 more COVID-19 deaths, lowest in 2 weeks

With the contagion interrupting global supply chains that most countries depend on for trade and commerce, economic activity is likely to slow, but at varying degrees.
Forecasts from economists collected between Feb 19 and 25 showed that Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are all expected to put in their worst performance in years in the first quarter. Only Indonesia was expected to remain relatively unscathed.
That comes on the heels of a similar Reuters poll published a little over a week ago, which found the Chinese economy will grow at its slowest pace in the current quarter since the financial crisis, with a worst-case scenario showing it at 3.5 per cent, nearly half of the 6 per cent reported in the fourth quarter of 2019.
"The base case is rapidly shifting from 'Bad', meaning only China is impacted, to 'Ugly', where both emerging Asia and developed economies see soaring infection rates and deaths," said Michael Every, head of financial markets research for Asia-Pacific at Rabobank in Hong Kong.
"Its effects will likely resemble the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 more than the SARS outbreak in 2003," he said, referring to the economic impact.
That fear in financial markets was clear on Monday, when world stocks took a nosedive to a two-year low as a surge in virus infections outside mainland China fuelled fears of a global pandemic.
READ: US stocks suffer second straight rout on coronavirus fears
Proximity to the region's economic powerhouse and trade relations mean any impact from a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy is likely to be felt across the region.
While a bounce back in the next quarter is expected for most major Asian economies polled, growth for this year is likely to be lower than predicted just last month, suggesting some activity would be permanently lost.
More than three-quarters of economists, 57 of 77, who answered an additional question also expect growth across these other Asian economies to pick up in the second quarter.
While South Korea was the hardest hit by the virus outside of China, its impact on the economy so far seems modest, according to forecasters who expect it to grow 2.1 per cent in the first quarter, down only 0.4 percentage points from a January Reuters poll.
Singapore, a port city and a major trade partner with China, is expected to contract 0.6 per cent in the present quarter, a first since the 2009 recession after the global financial crisis.
"The impact of the coronavirus on economies in Asia is potentially huge, as tourism in the region takes a beating. From deserted hotels to empty airports, the impact of this little scrap of protein and lipid on economies in the region is potentially enormous," said Robert Carnell, chief economist and head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING in Singapore.
"If this doesn't sound sufficiently scary, bear in mind that tourism is just one of the channels through which the coronavirus can weaken the GDP growth of Asian countries grappling with this epidemic."
Thailand's and Taiwan's economies are forecast to expand at a paltry 0.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent in the current quarter, the lowest in nearly half a decade.
Australia's economy, a proxy for Chinese economic growth, is forecast to grind to a halt in the current quarter, ending the country's near three-decade growth streak which started in 1991.
"This (the virus outbreak) can be hurtful to growth in several countries beyond just the negative spillovers from China. A sharp rise in infections reported by several countries raises concerns of a deeper hit to these countries and also global growth," said Johanna Chua, emerging markets Asia economist at Citi in Hong Kong.
But if the grim outlook doesn't improve, under a worst-case scenario, economists expect growth in all countries polled to drop further by 0.5 percentage points to one full percentage point.
Singapore is forecast to be the worst affected from the fallout, with growth dropping by more than 1 percentage point for 2020. The least impact would be on Indonesia, which is expected to grow 4.7 per cent this year.

 

[sweetiepie]

KNN the next question should be is it from now most people on earth will lead a life full of mild sickness KNN

KNN HR will need to start review employment benefits mc and hospital leave in order to control leechers KNN

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Labour crunch and supply delays: Some construction firms in Singapore feeling the strain of COVID-19
File photo of a construction site in Singapore. (Photo: AFP/Roslan Rahman)Bookmark
SINGAPORE: Construction firms in Singapore are starting to feel the strain from labour shortages and supply chain disruptions caused by the outbreak of COVID-19, with some seeking deadline extensions for their projects.
Singapore had its first confirmed case of the novel coronavirus on Jan 23 and since then, this number has risen to 91 on Tuesday (Feb 25).
As part of measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 here, the Manpower Ministry said earlier this month that all work pass holders with travel history to China within the last 14 days will have to be approved by authorities before entering the country. The majority of the 30,000 work pass holders from China have not returned according to Manpower Minister Josephine Teo. Those who return will be placed on a 14-day leave of absence.
These new requirements, alongside a reduction in flights to and from China, have slowed down the return of Chinese workers, exacerbating an existing manpower crunch in the construction sector, industry players told CNA.
“Even before COVID-19, there’s already a shortage of workers as the industry, which was in a downturn previously, slowly recovers and is seeing more construction projects,” said Mr Kenneth Loo, executive director and chief operating officer of Straits Construction Singapore.
“These (new rules) have only aggravated the shortage.”
In a bid to aid companies in their manpower needs amid the COVID-19 outbreak, the Manpower Ministry on Tuesday announced that manufacturing and services sectors will soon be able to hire work permit holders who are already in Singapore. The temporary scheme will run for six months.
Over at Teambuild Construction Group, it has seen a “significant impact” as many of its workers with expertise in areas such as reinforced concrete works, are from China.
Adding to its manpower woes, there has been a “sharp rise” in the number of Bangladeshi and Indian workers requesting to return home, a company spokesperson told CNA.
Echoing that, Mr Loo said his firm has also seen a number of such requests following news that five Bangladesh workers tested positive for COVID-19 in recent weeks.
“The workers are very worried about catching the disease here,” he said.
READ: Bangladeshi national with COVID-19 in very critical state: Bangladesh High Commission
Besides labour woes, industry players also have to contend with the issue of late deliveries of machinery and raw materials such as tiles and steel coils, as factories in China were shut for an extended period after Chinese New Year and have been slow to restart.
Nearly two thirds of those surveyed by the Singapore Contractors Association Limited (SCAL) said their supplies of materials and equipment have been “severely or very severely affected”. The poll done by the association last week involved 133 of its members.
Not just construction raw materials, companies are also facing a shortage of face masks, including the N95-type masks, which workers don as part of their protective gear during operations such as cutting and cement mixing, said SCAL’s president Ng Yek Meng.
The coronavirus outbreak has also caused work to slow down and 73 per cent of respondents indicated severe impact on their cash flow, the same survey showed.
CONCERNS ABOUT PROJECT DELAYS
Altogether, these have given rise to worries among industry players about possible missed deadlines.
Teambuild Construction Group, for instance, said it is "currently seeking all possible assistance" to request for extension of time (EOT) as the impact has been "substantial".
It is not alone. A Feb 18 report by Reuters said some local construction firms are seeking legal advice on invoking the force majeure clause in their building contracts. Force majeure refers to unexpected external circumstances that prevent a party from meeting contractual obligations.
Ms Spring Tan, partner at Withers KhattarWong, said the law firm has spoken to four clients with “preliminary inquiries, not specifically on the option of invoking force majeure but whether they can get EOT to complete their projects”.
These companies either employ Chinese workers or subcontractors, or have factories in China that have had to close. Unable to meet production and delivery deadlines, they are concerned, said Ms Tan.
“Our clients tell us that they are not feeling the full brunt of the impact at this moment as the situation is still evolving, and for now owners (and) developers are still understanding,” she added.
“However, construction firms are and should be exploring their options in case the situation worsens.”
Invoking force majeure clauses may be an option, but it remains an unknown “whether or not (it) will succeed as grounds for EOT under these circumstances”, Ms Tan told CNA.
READ: From manufacturing to retail, Singapore firms brace for supply issues amid COVID-19 outbreak
Amid concerns about possible project delays due to COVID-19, the Building and Construction Authority (BCA) has informed contractors involved in public sector projects that they may submit claims for EOT under the contract provisions.
It has also advised government procuring entities to be prepared to evaluate such claims for EOT and has sought the support of the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (REDAS) for private sector projects that are similarly affected, a BCA spokesperson said.
Separately, SCAL said it will be meeting REDAS to discuss this issue.
A construction worker secured on a harness. (File photo: AFP/Roslan Rahman)
SECTOR’S GROWTH OUTLOOK
The near-term woes of builders in Singapore have also tossed up questions about the growth outlook of the industry, which has been named as one of the bright spots for the Singapore economy this year.
After three years in contraction, the construction sector returned to full-year growth of 2.8 per cent in 2019. Amid an overall dim outlook for 2020, policymakers are expecting it to continue the recovery with “steady growth” on the back of a strong rebound in construction demand.
Estimates from BCA expect between S$28 billion and S$33 billion worth of contracts to be awarded in 2020, with around 60 per cent being public sector projects.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Impact need not be severe if COVID-19 turns into a 'pandemic', says health expert at IPS forum
Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) research deputy director Dr Gillian Koh, Ministry of Health communicable diseases director Assoc Prof Vernon Lee, United Overseas Bank economist Mr Barnabas Gan, IPS senior research fellow Dr Carol Soon and S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies senior fellow Dr Shashi Jayakumar speaking at an IPS Forum on Singapore's response to COVID-19 on Feb 25 2020.
By Zhaki Abdullah
25 Feb 2020 09:02PM(Updated: 25 Feb 2020 09:11PM)
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SINGAPORE: While there has been talk of the current COVID-19 outbreak becoming a pandemic, this did not mean the impact of the disease would be severe, said the Ministry of Health’s communicable diseases director Associate Professor Vernon Lee.
He was one of four panellists speaking on Tuesday (Feb 25) at an online forum on Singapore’s response to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, organised by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) and broadcast via a Facebook Live video from the social media giant’s Singapore studio.

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The other panellists included IPS senior research fellow Dr Carol Soon, S Rajaratnam School of International Studies senior fellow Dr Shashi Jayakumar and United Overseas Bank (UOB) economist Barnabas Gan.
Assoc Prof Lee said the term pandemic refers to the widespread transmission of a disease in different parts of the world. In practical terms, this means the disease is spreading very quickly and is likely to be difficult to contain globally, he added.
On Tuesday, World Health Organization (WHO) director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned of a “potential pandemic” with the recent surge in cases of COVID-19 outside of China.
Assoc Prof Lee noted the term does not however mean the impact of the disease will necessarily be severe.

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He pointed to the H1N1 outbreak of 2009, which was declared a pandemic by the WHO in June of that year, as an example.
While H1N1 was termed a pandemic due to how widespread it was, scientists had also discovered that the effects of the disease were quite mild and similar to seasonal influenza in terms of severity, he said.
“So while there was a pandemic, if you recall life went on as usual for the most part, with some measures to try to reduce the disease’s spread and also target our measures at the at-risk individuals,” he added.
A pandemic can be either mild or severe, said Assoc Prof Lee.
“How (the current coronavirus situation) will pan out, it could go either way, so we really have to see what the characteristics of the disease are.”
READ: World must prepare for 'potential pandemic': WHO chief
READ: WHO says no longer uses 'pandemic' category, but virus still emergency
UOB's Mr Gan noted the Singapore Tourism Board’s forecast that tourism here could fall by as much as 25 to 30 per cent this year, could translate into a S$6.8 billion to S$8.1 billion fall in revenue from tourism.
IPS research deputy director Gillian Koh, who moderated the forum, asked Mr Gan if measures announced by Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat as part of this year’s Budget - such as the S$4 billion allocated to support businesses and workers during this time - would be enough to tide over businesses during a period of economic uncertainty.
Mr Gan said such measures could help spur the economy and cushion the slowdown. He added the country’s budget surplus of S$18.7 billion - compared to the S$10.9 billion deficit - points to more than S$7 billion that could be used to push up the economy if needed.
Responding to a question on whether the fact that Singapore has seen no deaths from COVID-19 so far means that the economic and social damage could be more than the health impact, Mr Gan said the country could not be blamed for being overcautious.
READ: Singapore cuts 2020 GDP forecast range to -0.5% to 1.5% due to COVID-19 outbreak

READ: Commentary: COVID-19 the new national test for Singapore. How are we doing?
Assoc Prof Lee said that while there are a lot of hypotheses on how the virus can be beaten, these are based on experience with other diseases, COVID-19 is still very new.
Singapore had to be flexible in how it handled its approach to the coronavirus, he added.
“I think while we hope for the best, we have to prepare for all scenarios,” he said.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Dear Forumners,

I am normally reserved about creating New Threads but due to the over reactions caused by the Wuhan Virus and the fact that its fatality rate is lower than the flu. I will post and comment on the disruptions the Wuhan Virus has caused and the illogical reactions by the people which results in the blind following the blind. Also the cost due to fear of the virus on the world economy which boils down to people's livelihood...Is it worth it?

Anything that brings down the ChiComs is worth it.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Anything that brings down the ChiComs is worth it.

I hate to burst yr bubble,,,short of the total destruction of ah tiong land or an invasion and being conquered by another country,,,the Chicoms will not fall,,,,because the whole world wants the Chicom gahmen to be in power,,even yankeeland and russkieland,....the so called nations which think ah tiong land is a threat like the USA just wants the chicom gahmen to be friendly and give yankeeland benfits. Considering the over reaction by the chicoms,,I am not surprised the whole world fell for it hook, line and sinker that quarantine procedures are needed and not dealing with the Wuhan virus like treatment etc. This way the chicoms have the excuse to shut down the economy and affect the supply chain of the whole world,...Now the Chicoms are telling the whole world,,,u are fucked because yr factories are shutting down so u cant get the parts,,the chicoms are having the last laugh,,

In the past,,such a title was held by Yankeeland,,,how come now its refers to Ah Tiong land,,,,its to show ah tiong land is a big player now,,and there is no way it cannot overtake yankeeland,,,this is the signal the chicoms are sending to the whole world,,

Commentary: When China sneezes, the world economy catches a COVID-19 cold
The world economy was weak when COVID-19 struck, and will lead to demand shortfalls and disruptions to supply, says Stephen S Roach.
A businessman wears a face mask in the Central Business District in Beijing as the country is hit by an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in China Feb 24, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Thomas Peter)

By Stephen S Roach
26 Feb 2020 06:07AM(Updated: 26 Feb 2020 06:10AM)
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NEW HAVEN, Connecticut: The world economy has clearly caught a cold. The outbreak of COVID-19 came at a particularly vulnerable point in the global business cycle.
World output expanded by just 2.9 per cent in 2019 – the slowest pace since the 2008 to 2009 global financial crisis and just 0.4 percentage points above the 2.5 per cent threshold typically associated with global recession.

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Moreover, vulnerability increased in most major economies over the course of last year, making prospects for early 2020 all the more uncertain. In Japan, the world’s fourth-largest economy, growth contracted at a 6.3 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter – much sharper than expected following another consumption-tax hike.
Industrial output fell sharply in December in both Germany (-3.5 per cent) and France (-2.6 per cent), the world’s fifth- and tenth-largest economies respectively.
The United States, the world’s second-largest economy, appeared relatively resilient by comparison, but 2.1 per cent real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 hardly qualifies as a boom. And in China – now the world’s largest economy in purchasing-power-parity terms – growth slowed to a 27-year low of 6 per cent in the last quarter of 2019.

The coronavirus outbreak has hit the Chinese economy hard, but also lowered the country's carbon emissions as a result, researchers say. (Photo: AFP/GREG BAKER)


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ENTER THE COVID-19 SHOCK
In other words, there was no margin for an accident at the beginning of this year. Yet there has been a big accident: China’s COVID-19 shock. Over the past month, the combination of an unprecedented quarantine on Hubei Province (population 58.5 million) and restrictions on inter-city (and international) travel has brought the Chinese economy to a virtual standstill.
Daily activity trackers compiled by Morgan Stanley’s China team underscore the nationwide impact of this disruption.
As of Feb 20, coal consumption (still 60 per cent of China’s total energy consumption) remained down 38 per cent from the year-earlier pace, and nationwide transportation comparisons were even weaker, making it extremely difficult for China’s nearly 300 million migrant workers to return to factories after the annual Lunar New Year holiday.
The disruptions to supply are especially acute. Not only is China the world’s largest exporter by a wide margin; it also plays a critical role at the center of global value chains (GVCs).
READ: Commentary: Japan shows how not to deal with a COVID-19 outbreak
READ: Commentary: COVID-19 could redefine Singapore’s place in the global economy
Recent research shows that GVCs account for nearly 75 per cent of growth in world trade, with China the most important source of this expansion. Apple’s recent earnings alert says it all: The China shock is a major bottleneck to global supply.
FALL IN DEMAND
But demand-side effects are also very important. After all, China is now the largest source of external demand for most Asian economies.
Unsurprisingly, trade data for both Japan and Korea in early 2020 show unmistakable signs of weakness.
As a result, it is virtually certain that Japan will record two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which would make it three for three in experiencing recessions each time it has raised its consumption tax (1997, 2014, and 2019).

The coronavirus outbreak in China, the world's second-largest economy, has spooked markets worldwide. (Photo: AFP/Anthony WALLACE)

The shortfall of Chinese demand is also likely to hit an already weakening European economy very hard – especially Germany – and could even take a toll on a Teflon-like US economy, where China plays an important role as America’s third-largest and most rapidly growing export market.
The sharp plunge in a preliminary tally of US purchasing managers’ sentiment for February hints at just such a possibility and underscores the time-honored adage that no country is an oasis in a faltering global economy.
BUT THE VIRUS LAST THE LAST WORD
In the end, the epidemiologists will have the final word on the endgame for COVID-19 and its economic impact. While that science is well beyond my expertise, I take the point that the current strain of coronavirus seems to be more contagious but less lethal than SARS was in early 2003.
I was in Beijing during that outbreak 17 years ago and remember well the fear and uncertainty that gripped China back then. The good news is that the disruption was brief – a one-quarter shortfall of two percentage points in nominal GDP growth – followed by a vigorous rebound over the next four quarters.
READ: Commentary: Hit hard by COVID-19, Singapore Airlines may need to pursue deeper capacity cuts
READ: Commentary: Outbreaks of diseases make us exaggerate or under-estimate risks. The COVID-19 shows that
But circumstances were very different back then. In 2003, China was booming – with real GDP surging by 10 per cent – and the world economy was growing by 4.3 per cent. For China and the world, a SARS-related disruption barely made a dent.
Again, that is far from being the case today. COVID-19 hit at a time of much greater economic vulnerability. Significantly, the shock is concentrated on the world’s most important growth engine.
The International Monetary Fund puts China’s share of global output at 19.7 per cent this year, more than double its 8.5 per cent share in 2003, during the SARS outbreak.
Moreover, with China having accounted for fully 37 per cent of the cumulative growth in world GDP since 2008 and no other economy stepping up to fill the void, the risk of outright global recession in the first half of 2020 seems like a distinct possibility.

The US Federal Reserve Vice-chair Richard Clarida said he was upbeat about US economy but watching China closely. (Photo: AFP/Brendan Smialowski)

Yes, this, too, will pass. While vaccine production will take time – six to 12 months at the very least, the experts say – the combination of warmer weather in the northern hemisphere and unprecedented containment measures could mean that the infection rate peaks at some point in the next few months.
But the economic response will undoubtedly lag the virus infection curve, as a premature relaxation of quarantines and travel restrictions could spur a new and more widespread wave of COVID-19.
That implies, at a minimum, a two-quarter growth shortfall for China, double the duration of the shortfall during SARS, suggesting that China could miss its 6 per cent annual growth target for 2020 by as much as one percentage point.
China’s recent stimulus measures, aimed largely at the post-quarantine rebound, will not offset the restrictions currently in place.
This matters little to the optimistic consensus of investors. After all, by definition shocks are merely temporary disruptions of an underlying trend. While it is tempting to dismiss this shock for that very reason, the key is to heed the implications of the underlying trend.
The world economy was weak, and getting weaker, when COVID-19 struck. The V-shaped recovery trajectory of a SARS-like episode will thus be much tougher to replicate – especially with monetary and fiscal authorities in the US, Japan, and Europe having such little ammunition at their disposal.
READ: Commentary: The end of the decade – the world is in more debt and it isn’t going away
READ: Commentary: The brewing discontent with trade and one step to restoring faith in globalisation
That, of course, was the big risk all along. In these days of dip-buying froth, China’s sneeze may prove to be especially vexing for long-complacent financial markets.
Stephen S Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.
Source: Project Syndicate/sl

 

[Hypocrite-The]

As coronavirus COVID-19 spreads, how are Italy, Iran, Korea and others dealing with the outbreak? - ABC News

More than 30 countries have been hit by the spread of COVID-19.(ABC News: Graphic By Jarrod Fankhauser)
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The Australian Government says it is "pandemic ready" but warns "no country is immune" as coronavirus hotspots continue to crop up around the globe.
Key points:

• The outbreak in Italy has seen the virus spread to other European countries for the first time
• A Brazilian man has been confirmed as South America's first case
• Iran has been accused of a cover-up while some of China's allies have a relaxed approach

Only two months from the first reported case in China, the death toll now stands at more than 2,700 and there are more than 80,000 recorded cases of the COVID-19 virus around the world — although the vast majority of cases and deaths continue to be concentrated in Hubei province's Wuhan.
Following on the heels of other nations, Australia imposed a travel ban on China with some exemptions despite the World Health Organisation warning such measures would only contribute to "fear and stigma".
This week saw fresh rounds of case spikes in Iran, South Korea, and Italy, while deaths have also been recorded in Japan, the Philippines, France, and Taiwan.
At the time of writing, the deadly virus had reached more than 30 countries.
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison told a press briefing the Australian Government had exercised "an abundance of caution" and that those measures "have proved to be effective".

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said 15 Australians with COVID-19 had recovered.(AAP: Mick Tsikas)
Seven other Australians contracted the virus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
But as Australia continues to grapple with how to handle the outbreak, other countries — including China's allies and those with frostier diplomatic relations — have responded in different ways.
Iran has highest death toll outside China amid cover-up claims

People wear masks to help guard against the Coronavirus in downtown Tehran.(AP: Ebrahim Noroozi)
The coronavirus has claimed the lives of 19 people in Iran — the highest number of coronavirus deaths outside China — with roughly 139 people infected.
Countries around Iran are closing their borders. Turkey, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan and Armenia have shut off access, while authorities have cancelled concerts, sport events, and closed schools while urging Iranians to stay at home.
But the virus has already hit senior Iranian officials.

Iran's Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi has quarantined himself at his home
Among the infected is Iran's Deputy Health Minister, Iraj Harirchi. He posted a video on social media on Tuesday confirming he had contracted the virus, while another MP — Mahmoud Sadeghi — also tested positive.
The high mortality rate in a nation thousands of kilometres from Wuhan has left commentators wondering whether the scale of the virus's spread is being accurately reported by Iranian media.
This week, Iran's MP for Qom — a city just south of Tehran where many cases have been reported — made allegations of a cover-up while claiming "around 50" people had died from the virus, a claim disputed by Iranian health authorities.
Meanwhile, there are fears the virus could spread through key pilgrimage routes — millions of people journey through Qom every year — which could spread the virus further while also impacting on refugees in the region who already lack access to adequate health services.
Indonesia maintains it has zero cases due to 'prayers' despite mass tourism

Indonesians working on the Diamond Princess pleaded to be evacuated.
In contrast to Iran, Indonesia has yet to report a single case of the novel coronavirus on its shores despite being slow to suspend direct flights from Wuhan to Bali amid the outbreak while hosting 1.3 million Chinese tourists last year.
The regional anomaly has experts questioning quarantine and screening procedures in the world's fourth-most-populous country, with a population of more than 270 million.
The Sydney Morning Herald reported earlier this year Indonesia lacked the right test kits to identify the virus until February.
Meanwhile, when asked how it was possible Indonesia had no confirmed cases, Health Minister Terawan Agus Putranto said it came down to faith.
But while Indonesia maintains its zero-case status, experts believe it's just a matter of time before cases start appearing across the archipelago.
Meanwhile, in a video provided exclusively to the ABC, Indonesian workers on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Japan pleaded with President Joko Widodo to evacuate them.
"Please don't let us get sick and slowly die from how long it has taken to evacuate us."
North Korea seals border with key ally China amid nutrition fears

People wearing face masks ride on a trolley bus in Pyongyang, North Korea.(AP: Kyodo News)
Following news of the initial outbreak, Pyongyang wasted no time swiftly shutting its border with China, halting tourism and cancelling its annual marathon.
The 1,500 kilometre border with chief ally China is porous in many parts, allowing for the smuggling of people and goods.
Some observers noted shutting the border was a necessary step to contain the virus, given North Korea's poor health system and rates of malnutrition in its population that could make it vulnerable to infection.
But others have pointed out the border shutdown cuts off access to one of its few allies and economic lifelines — Foreign Policy highlights more than 90 per cent of North Korea's trade is with China.
State media reported 380 foreigners — mostly diplomats in Pyongyang — were put under quarantine.
One South Korean media outlet reported an official had been executed for breaching quarantine, but such reports can prove unreliable and could not be independently verified.
But for a hermit state wedged between China and South Korea, the sites of the two largest outbreaks, the absence of the novel virus is conspicuous.
Nonetheless, North Korea's propaganda outlets maintain the country has zero cases of the virus.
South Korean cult at heart of recent spike
Less than a week ago, South Korea had only registered two-dozen cases. But that number skyrocketed in the past few days to over 1,140 infections and at least 11 deaths.

Workers wearing protective suits spray disinfectant at a market in Bupyeong, South Korea.(AP: Lee Jong-Chul/Newsis)
Most of the fatalities occurred at a hospital in the southern county of Cheongdo near Daegu where a slew of infections were detected in a mental health ward.
A religious group in Daegu, cast as a secretive doomsday cult, has been at the heart of South Korea's recent boost in coronavirus cases.
Shincheonji sect, which is also known as Church of Jesus, the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony, is headed by Lee Man-hee, who claims to be a prophet.

A worker stacks plastic buckets containing medical waste from coronavirus patients at a medical centre in Daegu.(AP: Lee Moo-Ryul/Newsis)
Observers of the faith huddle in close quarters to pray at a proximity that could help incubate the disease.
He urged his members to "follow the Government's instructions" and avoid public gatherings.
President Moon Jae-in has said the situation is "very grave" and has raised the highest alert level for infectious diseases, but has not ordered a lockdown of the city of Daegu.
Italy is Europe's hardest-hit nation amid hunt for 'patient zero'

A woman wearing a sanitary mask looks at her phone in Milan, Italy.(AP: Claudio Furlan/Lapresse)
The number of cases in Italy, the country in Europe worst affected, rose to more than 374 this week with the death toll climbing to 12.
The streets in northern Italy are eerily empty in a declared "red zone", with more than 50,000 people in lockdown.

Inside an empty British Airways flight from London to Milan.(ABC News: Andrew Greaves)
The virus has also spread to the south of Italy, with several countries reporting their first cases of the deadly COVID-19 apparently stemming from Italy, including Austria, Croatia, Switzerland, Algeria and Greece.
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was forced to admit a local hospital had mishandled the region's first coronavirus case, contributing to the spread, and health authorities were yet to identify "patient zero" — the person who first brought the virus into the country.
The final days of the world-famous Venice Carnival were cancelled as authorities scrambled to contain the outbreak, with football matches in the region also called off.
South America on Wednesday (local time) also recorded its first case after Brazil's Government confirmed a 61-year-old Brazilian who returned from Italy this month tested positive.
This means the virus has now spread to every continent except Antarctica.

Masks mix with sanitary masks in the last day of carnival in Venice, Italy.(AP: Luigi Costantini)Cambodia 'too hot' for the virus as Myanmar fights infection with pepper
As the New York Times noted earlier this month, the coronavirus outbreak has received a notably subdued response "in countries where China holds sway".
In Myanmar, Buddhist monks broadcast over loudspeakers that placing "exactly seven" ground peppercorns on the tongue will ward off the virus.

Passengers celebrate after they disembark from the MS Westerdam in Sihanoukville, Cambodia.(AP Photo: Heng Sinith)
While other countries are imposing travel bans, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has made a move in the opposite direction, declaring his intention to travel to Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus.
He was told "no" — Wuhan was in lockdown — but he boasted of being the first world leader to visit China since the outbreak, in a gesture of solidarity.

Hun Sen shakes hands with Xi Jinping in China in early February 2020.(Facebook)
He has repeatedly said fear of the new coronavirus is worse than the virus itself, and the country also welcomed the cruise ship MS Westerdam, to praise from the WHO director-general and US President Donald Trump.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) said that was not the case.
"At this stage, the virus is too new for us to be sure how warmer weather could affect transmissibility," a spokesperson told the ABC.
The WHO has recommended "a range of infection-prevention measures including careful hand and respiratory hygiene, and keeping at least 1 metre distance from others to help stop transmission" and has also "issued guidance to assist all countries to prepare for possible international exportation of COVID-2019 cases".

 

[Xisiqomelir]

I hate to burst yr bubble,,,short of the total destruction of ah tiong land or an invasion and being conquered by another country,,,the Chicoms will not fall,,,,because the whole world wants the Chicom gahmen to be in power,,even yankeeland and russkieland,....the so called nations which think ah tiong land is a threat like the USA just wants the chicom gahmen to be friendly and give yankeeland benfits.

Bro Commie regimes just collapse on their own. Every week there's a village or hamlet in China rising up in armed revolt, and we only hear about a smidgen of them. Eventually Xinnie won't be able to keep the lid on the overboiling pot.

Totally agree that the so-called "Western Democracies" will be caught flat-footed when this happens. They were when the Berlin Wall fell too.

 

[nightsafari]

It's a satire website like the Onion.

darn. you got my hopes up only to dash them.

 

[nightsafari]

misread and posted a mistake.

 

[nightsafari]

Bro Commie regimes just collapse on their own. Every week there's a village or hamlet in China rising up in armed revolt, and we only hear about a smidgen of them. Eventually Xinnie won't be able to keep the lid on the overboiling pot.

Totally agree that the so-called "Western Democracies" will be caught flat-footed when this happens. They were when the Berlin Wall fell too.

almost everyone so far except NK and china. Confucianist ideology may make communism more entrenched. but we can hope.

 

[worcer]

Just hope nobody cares and let the virus spread lah...

Wait till ur close ones kena... dies... then kpkb...

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Careers could end without Olympic highlight if Tokyo cancelled
27 Feb 2020 07:31AM
Bookmark
WELLINGTON: The potential cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics due to the coronavirus outbreak could end the careers of several athletes like twice shot put champion Valerie Adams, according to Athletics New Zealand's high performance director Scott Goodman.
The Tokyo Olympics are still scheduled to take place from July 24-Aug. 9 and the Japanese government has quelled fears the outbreak could cause their cancellation, but global and national sports organisations are on alert about the impact of the virus.
It has already forced the cancellation, postponement or shift of several sporting events in Asia, including the world indoor athletics championships that were scheduled for Nanjing from March 13-15.
Goodman said he had yet to discuss with Adams her plans beyond Tokyo but he recognised that older athletes like the 2008 and 2012 champion, who is 35, might not choose to go through another 12 months let alone another Olympic cycle.
"For some individual athletes like ... Valerie and I haven't sat down with her about it yet, but for her to go another 12 months ... ... it could have a big impact on what they do," Goodman told Radio New Zealand on Thursday.
"Other athletes will just have to take it in their stride. It is a sporting event at the end of the day.
"You have to just abide by what's going on in the world and ... what the advisors are telling us."
The 35-year-old Adams has qualified for her fifth Games after returning to competition this year following the birth of her second child.
She indicated previously that Tokyo was likely to be her last Olympics.
Goodman added that 1500 metres runner Nick Willis, who won silver at Beijing in 2008 and bronze at Rio four years ago, would be 37 in Tokyo and was also probably in the twilight of his career.
Athletes and coaches, however, were still preparing for the Games, Goodman said.
"We're still all going to training today and tomorrow," he said. "For athletes and coaches, we just keep on preparing.
"If an outbreak like this makes it impossible to run the Games then we just have to respect that.
"But for the time being that's not on our mind. We're just getting ready for it."
(Reporting by Greg Stutchbury; Editing by Ed Osmond)
Source: Reuters

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Coronavirus update: Latest news on COVID-19 after Australia activates emergency plan
By Tegan Taylor, Dannielle Maguire, wires
Updated 15 minutes ago

PHOTO: Japan's entire school system will close from Monday to help contain the coronavirus outbreak. (Reuters: Athit Perawongmetha)
The COVID-19 outbreak is dominating the news — the disease has been confirmed in 12 new countries, the stock market is reacting and an emergency plan has been activated in Australia.

Let's break down what all that means.

This story is being regularly updated. Follow along for the latest throughout the day.

Key moments from today

• Australia's health ministers have updated us on preparations for pandemic
• Australia activates its emergency plan and is now operating on the basis the virus is a pandemic
• A Japanese woman tests positive a second time, raising questions around immunity
• Italy case numbers climb sharply and Saudi Arabia suspends arrivals ahead of Ramadan
• The World Health Organisation (WHO) confirms cases in nine new countries
• ASX slumps as Wall Street falls dramatically

Where has the virus spread?
Reuters has reported at least 10 countries had confirmed first cases of the virus in the past day.

This includes New Zealand, Lithuania, Nigeria and the Netherlands.

The Dutch public health institute said its first coronavirus patient had recently visited the Lombardy region in Italy and was in isolation.

The virus has caused nearly 80,000 infections and almost 2,800 deaths in China, according official Chinese figures.

It has spread to another 46 countries, where about 3,700 cases and 57 deaths have been reported, according to the WHO.

New Zealand confirms first case
The outbreak has reached New Zealand, with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern confirming the country's first positive diagnosis today.

The coronavirus emergency plan has been activated

The Australian Government has pulled the trigger on its emergency response plan and is now operating on the basis the virus is a pandemic. Here's what that means.


Health authorities said the patient, a person in their 60s, had returned from Iran on an Emirates flight that landed in Auckland on Wednesday.

The patient is being treated in an Auckland hospital and other members of their household have been isolated.

WA cruise ship passenger tests positive
A second case of the virus has been confirmed in WA.

The female patient was a passenger on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined in Japan.

She was evacuated to Darwin with her husband, who had earlier tested positive to the disease.

The woman was quarantined while her husband was isolated in a Perth hospital.

She did not have symptoms of the disease at the time of her husband's hospitalisation, but she has since tested positive.

Getting workplaces ready
The World Health Organisation has published advice on how to get your workplace ready for COVID-19.

It includes tips like:

• Making sure workplaces are clean and hygienic
• Promoting regular, thorough hand-washing by employees, contractors and customers
• Promoting good respiratory hygiene in the workplace
• Advising people to consult travel advisories before business trips
• For places where COVID-19 is spreading in the community, asking people to stay home from work if they have symptoms, even if they're just a mild cough, low-grade fever (37.3 degrees Celsius or more) or if they have taken medicines like paracetamol, ibuprofen or aspirin, because these can mask symptoms

"Employers should start doing these things now, even if COVID-19 has not arrived in the communities where they operate," the document says.

Why aren't there more COVID-19 cases in India yet?
From our India correspondent James Oaten:

Sitting right next to China is the world's second-most-populous country, India.

But despite being home to 1.3 billion people, it has so far defied expectations and kept the rate of coronavirus infection low.

What happens when a pandemic is declared

Coronavirus is now hitting Europe and the Middle East. Experts say we all need to start preparing for things to get worse.


Only three people have been confirmed as having contracted COVID-19, but all have since made a recovery and been discharged from hospital.

While it has puzzled some, there are actually a few reasons that can explain the low number of cases.

Firstly, compared with other Asian countries, India does not have strong connections to China — either in tourism or manufacturing.

It was also quick to suspend online tourist visas for Chinese passport holders after the outbreak and the Government ramped up security at its already heavily fortified and mountainous border with China.

In fact, India was able to start evacuating Indian nationals from Wuhan before Australia did.

But while it has so far fared well, health experts have warned the country is susceptible to an outbreak due to its dense population, high rate of internal migration, and a patchy health care system.

ITBP

✔@ITBP_official
https://twitter.com/ITBP_official/status/1232976701736402944

112 people including 36 foreign nationals arrived from Wuhan, China today have been taken to ITBP Chhawla Facility, New Delhi. The group includes 8 families and 5 children. They are being looked after by the team of ITBP Doctors.@drharshvardhan#Himveers


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Rudd calls for economic response to coronavirus
Former prime minister Kevin Rudd has criticised the Government's economic response to COVID-19.

He warned of economic impacts cascading to Australia from countries hit hard by the virus, like China, and said economic stimulus was needed to support the Government's pandemic plan.

"There was a strong case for targeted economic stimulus even before the coronavirus outbreak late last year," Mr Rudd said in a statement.

"It's good that we have a public health plan, but what's missing is an economic plan."

Containing the spread
A lot of the messages in today's media conference with Australian health authorities focused on slowing the spread of disease if it does start transmitting in Australia, and helping people manage at home if they do get sick — and with good reason.

Protecting the hospital system from overload will make for a more sustainable response to an outbreak in Australia, chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said.

"What we are going to try and do when we get our first cases, if we get our first cases, is to try and contain as much as possible by isolating people in their homes, most people would not need hospital treatment," he said.

"One scenario would be over two to three months you had a slow spread of infection amongst part of the community but with a small number of people needing hospital treatment for severe pneumonia. If that is a bigger number, that could have significant impacts on the hospital system."

How to protect yourself against COVID-19: A reminder
Firstly, there's no evidence of COVID-19 spreading in the community in Australia so far. Common sense applies here.

But if you are worried, here is how to minimise your risk:

• Wash your hands properly: Soap and water are two of our most powerful allies against infectious disease. Hand washing should take at least 20 seconds (hum "Happy Birthday" to yourself twice as you wash to keep track)
• Be careful what you touch: We don't know how long the virus can survive on surfaces. Keep surfaces that are touched regularly clean, and avoid touching your nose, mouth or eyes, especially if you haven't washed your hands for a while
• If you're at risk of COVID-19 (for example, if you've been in contact with someone with the illness or you've travelled somewhere there's an outbreak) and you've got flu-like symptoms, phone your GP. But don't show up to a GP practice or hospital without telling them first, as they will need to arrange to protect others before you arrive
• Get a flu shot when the time comes: There's no vaccine against COVID-19 (yet — and there won't be for some months), but using the vaccines we do have will help ease the burden on the health system and make it easier to identify COVID-19.

New Zealand strengthens travel restrictions
From Friday, New Zealand will introduce temporary travel restrictions on travellers from Iran.

The NZ Health Minister also says they will not allow any exemptions for overseas students from China, and they are going to increase the health staff presence at international airports.

Put down the masks
Don't waste face masks by wearing them out of fear of the coronavirus, Professor Murphy says.

Even though the Federal Government has activated its emergency response plan in anticipation of the virus being declared a pandemic, there's actually no evidence of community transmission in Australia so far.

"Whilst we are preparing and we are realistic about what might come in future weeks, we are not in a situation where anyone needs to be concerned. No-one should go around wearing and wasting face masks, please," Professor Murphy says.

Federal minister Greg Hunt says there are around 20 million masks in the national medical stockpile.

Australians are turning to Google for answers
Online searches can reveal a lot about what's on our minds — and Australians are flocking to the internet for information on preparing for a pandemic, according to Google Trends.

Search terms like "what to stock up on for pandemic" have shot up by more than 7,000 per cent, tweets Anna Vreeland, a data journalism fellow at Google News Lab.

Stockpiling as a topic is also trending, Ms Freeland notes.

Anna Freeland@annamareefree
https://twitter.com/annamareefree/status/1233205439954710528

The questions Australians are searching around #pandemic this week are pretty revealing. Lots of interest in stockpiling and preparedness. For e.g. "what to stock up on for pandemic" has shot up +7,600%.#COVID19 #coronavirus #GoogleTrends #auspol https://twitter.com/GoogleTrends/status/1233198186719670274 …
GoogleTrends

✔@GoogleTrends
Replying to @GoogleTrends
"How to prepare for pandemic flu?" is the top trending question for #pandemic in Australia this week.#COVID19 #GoogleTrends


3
9:41 AM - Feb 28, 2020
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The surge in interest around the term "pandemic" is echoed worldwide.

Search interest is up 780 per cent in the past week globally, with the most searches coming from Paraguay, Guatemala and Colombia.

Health ministers in planning mode
Mr Hunt has been in a meeting with his state and territory counterparts. He says:

• Elderly people and people with immune problems have been identified as most at risk
• Supply chains are strong for basic protective supplies such as face masks and hand sanitisers
• Soap and water are as good for hand hygiene as anything else
• In general, the risk to Australians remains low

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.











VIDEO: Mr Hunt said state and territory health ministers were "better prepared" than last week. (ABC News)


Now in Nigeria
Nigeria has confirmed its first case of COVID-19, the first in sub-Saharan Africa.

The patient is an Italian citizen who flew into Lagos from Milan.

The commissioner for health for Lagos said the patient was clinically stable with no serious symptoms and was being managed at a Lagos hospital.

Getting COVID-19 once might not make you immune
What you need to know

Here's a rundown of all the facts about coronavirus, and how you can make sure you're protected.


In Japan, a woman who had the virus and recovered has tested positive for a second time — and second positive tests have also been reported in China.

This could mean that just because you've had the disease once, doesn't make you immune from getting it again.

It could also mean that recovered patients may still carry the virus — it's unclear what that means for efforts to control the outbreak.

Scientists are warning there's still a lot that we don't know about this new virus.

Australia activates emergency plan
The outbreak hasn't officially been declared a pandemic by the WHO yet, but that didn't stop the Federal Government pulling the trigger on its emergency plan yesterday.

It's now operating on the basis the virus is a pandemic.

"We moved 10 days ahead of the WHO last time and we were right," Prime Minister Scott Morrison told Channel 9's Today Show.

"We are getting the same advice from [Professor Murphy] that is: we have got ahead, stay ahead in getting these other plans in place should there be a transmission of the disease in Australia."

No travel ban changes for now
As for extending the travel ban to other countries than China, Mr Morrison said that wasn't on the table for the time being.

"That's not the medical advice either. The medical advice is that is not proportional to the risk, and once it gets to sort of the stage where it's affecting so many countries, the advice is that you have to prepare for it going into pandemic phase," he told ABC News Breakfast.

What does our emergency response look like?
It's the Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (the COVID-19 Plan), which guides the health sector's response.

The point of the plan is to ensure there are enough medical staff, supplies and personal protective equipment across the country.

The idea is that if the disease does start spreading in Australia, we're equipped to slow the spread and contain it as much as possible.

The scope of the emergency response will be escalated according to the spread of the disease. In the worst case, that would include:

• Cancelling large gatherings
• People having to work from home
• Elective surgeries being suspended
• Intensive care bed numbers increased
• Mortuary services prioritised
• Aged care homes locked down
• Childcare centres closed

But Mr Morrison says that level of response is not yet needed.

Doctors are preparing for the worst
Doctors are warning that Australia's emergency medicine services are already stretched, and a pandemic could overwhelm them.

The plan is robust and rightly focused on prevention and preparation, but a bad flu season can already stretch our healthcare systems to the limit, points out Simon Judkins, the former president of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine.

More on the coronavirus outbreak:

• Coronavirus has ruined thousands of holidays. Should you cancel your travel plans?
• As a coronavirus pandemic looms, experts say now's the time to get ready
• The coronavirus emergency plan has been activated. Here's what that means for you
• The WHO has declared a global emergency for just the sixth time
• What exactly is coronavirus, and should you be concerned?

Deputy chief medical officer Paul Kelly rejected reports the illness could infect everyone in Australia, but said authorities were preparing for a range of scenarios.

"That's one of them, that the virus will indeed become like the common cold or a flu virus in terms of continuing to come perhaps in the winter months," he said.

"So that may happen, it may be a one-off wave that comes through and infects a certain wave of the population, it won't be everybody I can absolutely guarantee that, or it won't come at all."

Professor Kelly said he was surprised the World Health Organisation had not yet declared a pandemic.

"When you look at their own definition of what a pandemic is, it doesn't actually bring in an issue of severity but rather spread," he said.

"And so their own definition says if it's spreading … in more than one country, in more than one region of the world, then that's when they start to move towards that definition."

What's the latest from the WHO?
Nine new countries reported cases of COVID-19 yesterday (the 24 hours leading up to about 10:00pm AEDT): Brazil, Denmark, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Norway, Pakistan, Romania, and North Macedonia, according to the WHO's latest situation report.

These contribute to the 1,185 new confirmed cases over the day, bringing the global total to 82,294.

But WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus still had an optimistic tone in a speech on Wednesday, saying the key message of a report from a WHO-China joint mission was "hope, courage and confidence … that this virus can be contained".

"We are in a fight that can be won if we do the right things," Dr Tedros said.

"For the moment, we are not witnessing sustained and intensive community transmission of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death."

Markets are suffering
COVID-19 is also affecting the health of global markets.

In the space of just a week, the ASX 200 has gone from a record closing high of 7,162 last Thursday to 6,441 this morning.

US markets suffered their worst fall this week, with Wall Street now in a correction after losses of more than 10 per cent.

It's the steepest weekly pullback since the 2008 global financial crisis.

But although Australia's dollar fell to an 11-year low this week, hitting 65.43 US cents on Thursday, the coronavirus isn't the only factor that's contributed to this.

Our dollar has been slowly losing value since February last year, partly because of Reserve Bank forecasts in 2018 that rate cuts would be needed in 2019, trade tensions between the world's two largest economies (the US and China), and the bushfires.

China's regaining confidence
Now that there are more cases being reported outside China than inside, Chinese authorities are eager to shed the virus stigma and questions about its early handling of the epidemic.

President Xi Jinping said on Thursday: "We have the confidence, the ability and the certainty to win this war against the epidemic."

And Chinese respiratory disease specialist Zhong Nanshan predicted China's outbreak should be "basically under control" by the end of April.

He credited strong measures taken by the Government and the work of medical workers for helping curb the spread.

What's happening elsewhere in the world?
PHOTO: A paramedic leaves a tent set up by the Italian Civil Protection outside the emergency ward of the Piacenza hospital in northern Italy. (AP: Claudio Furlan)

• Italy's number of confirmed coronaviruses has grown to 650, up from 400 on Wednesday evening. (A week ago, the number was three.) They've had three more deaths, bringing the country's toll to 15. Officials have said all of the patients were elderly, had other illnesses or both.
• Saudi Arabia has suspended arrivals from some two dozen countries where COVID-19 has spread. The decision comes ahead of the holy fast of Ramadan, which begins in late April, when visits by Muslims to the kingdom accelerate.
• Japan's entire school system, from primary to high schools, will be asked to close from March 2 until their upcoming spring break late in the month — when the school year would usually end — to help contain the coronavirus outbreak, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday.
• In the United States, California is monitoring 8,400 people for virus symptoms — these are people who arrived in the state from domestic commercial flights. The state's health authorities have confirmed what may be the first case of coronavirus in the US that has no known connection to overseas travel.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

COVID-19, more commonly known as coronavirus, continues to spread across the world. As the virus spreads investors and businesses are getting nervous. So in this video, we're going to explore the economic effect of COVID-19 and how the global economy is reacting to the virus.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Coronavirus miracle? Vietnam says all its infected patients cured

World Health Organization officials and health experts say swift response crucial in containing virus in the country.
10 hours ago
Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam - Amid the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak around the world, Vietnam has announced that all 16 infected patients in the country were discharged from hospital and declared cured.
As of Wednesday, all 16 patients, including the oldest who is 73, had been cured and discharged from the hospital.

• Coronavirus: All you need to know about symptoms and risks

For the past 15 days, including on Friday, the government also detected no new cases of infections, the last one having been reported on February 13, even as a village north of Hanoi remains under a 20-day lockdown.
"If fighting COVID-19 has been a war, then we have won the first round but not the entire war because the situation can be very unpredictable," Vietnam's Ministry of Health quoted Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam as saying, referring to the illness caused by the coronavirus, during an online conference with city and provincial officials on Tuesday.
Worldwide, the outbreak has already killed almost 3,000 and infected more than 83,000 as of Saturday.
It is a different story, however, in Vietnam. World Health Organization (WHO) officials and health experts said the government's swift response to the emergency was crucial in containing the crisis at the early stage.
By Wednesday, the Vietnamese government declared that the 16th and final patient infected with the virus had been discharged from the hospital.
The 50-year-old man, identified as NVV, had earlier caught the infection from his 23-year-old daughter, identified only as NTD. Both are natives of Son Loi district in the northern province of Vinh Phuc, where 11 cases were found.
The daughter was one of eight employees of a Japanese company who returned from the Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus, on January 17. In all, six people among the group were found to have tested positive for the virus later.
Some of their relatives and friends were also infected, including a three-month-old baby, the youngest coronavirus patient to date.
Proactive, consistent response
Dr Kidong Park, WHO representative in Vietnam, attributed the success to the government's "proactiveness and consistency throughout the response".
Vietnam's novel coronavirus nightmare began when two Chinese nationals were found to be the first cases the country on January 23 [File: Kham/Reuters]
Vietnam's novel coronavirus nightmare began when two Chinese nationals were found to be the first cases in Ho Chi Minh City on January 23, the first day of the Lunar New Year celebration holiday, casting a gloomy air over the festive season.
Vietnam officially declared the coronavirus an epidemic on February 1, when the number of cases in the country rose to six.
On February 13, the health ministry ordered all 10,600 residents of Son Loi to remain under lockdown for 20 days, after more cases were confirmed.
"The country has activated its response system at the early stage of the outbreak, by intensifying surveillance, enhancing laboratory testing, ensuring infection prevention and control and case management in healthcare facilities, clear risk communication message, and multi-sectoral collaboration," Park, the WHO official, told Al Jazeera.
No treatment yet
"There's no medication for this virus yet. We rely on fundamental principles," Nguyen Thanh Long, deputy minister of health, said at a news conference in Hanoi in early February, after 10 cases were reported.
Healthcare workers have been instructed to follow some protocols to assess the infection and the level of severity.
First, the doctors are required to treat the symptoms, like fever. Second, the patients are placed on a strict, nutritious diet.
The third step, according to Nguyen, is to closely monitor the oxygen saturation level in the blood of the patients.
While efforts were made to eliminate infections behind hospital doors, Vietnam has also suspended classes, extending school breaks to protect students. Millions of students in 63 cities and provinces in Vietnam have not been back to school since the beginning of the Lunar New Year celebration.
'Safety first'
Deputy Minister of Education and Training Nguyen Huu Do said during a meeting on Tuesday that, "the safety of students must be placed above all", according to the education ministry's website.
The ministry has instructed schools to disinfect classrooms before students resume their classes.
Teachers and staff have been asked to remind students about proper hygiene like hand-washing, and carry out temperature checks on students upon their arrival. Schools are also required to prepare health forms used to monitor students.
On February 13, the Health Ministry ordered all 10,600 residents of Son Loi to remain under lockdown for 20 days in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus [File: Nhac Nguyen/AFP]
A document from the education ministry, issued on Thursday and seen by Al Jazeera, instructed authorities to allow students to return to school on March 2 "if the COVID-19 situation is well-controlled and there are no further complicated developments".
Students up to the secondary education level were given another week or two off school.
"I'm very nervous about going back to work. Hopefully, it's going to be OK considering this hot weather," said Le Hanh, a psychology consultant at a public high school with nearly 2,000 students in Ho Chi Minh City said.
Ho Chi Minh, the country's largest city, has nearly two million students, from kindergarten to continuing education and vocational training schools.
'Ban on wildlife export'
While Vietnam has contained the virus well to this point, some believe that more needs to be done, especially with wildlife trade.
Wild animals have been identified as the link allowing the deadly disease to jump to humans, similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002 and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012.
On January 28, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc ordered a ban on imports of wild animals into Vietnam [File: Kham/Reuters]
Vietnam, a hotspot for wildlife trafficking and consumption, has also ramped up measures in this regard.
On January 28, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc ordered a ban on imports of wild animals into Vietnam.
The Forest Protection Department also temporarily prohibited the transport of wild animals out of Vietnam until further notice, according to an official document released two weeks ago.
How these directives are being implemented and how much action has been taken to address the root causes remains unclear, however, said Dr Ben Rawson of World Wildlife Fund in Vietnam.
"There is currently no direct ban on consumption of wildlife, which is the driver for illegal transport and illegal trade within the provinces," Rawson told Al Jazeera.
Illegal markets, restaurants and farms, where animals are caged, slaughtered, stored and served to buyers with no proper hygiene, may be largely unaffected by actions so far, as "it may not involve movement of wildlife across provincial borders which is restricted," he noted.
'It's not over yet'
While Vietnam has managed to contain the virus, for now, the country should not lower its guard, given the spread of the infection elsewhere, like South Korea, authorities said.
Since South Korea became the biggest coronavirus centre outside China, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has ordered a ban on travellers from there.
On Friday, Vietnam announced a temporary suspension of visas for South Korean nationals starting on Saturday.
Tourists wear protective masks as they travel around the historic city of Hanoi on Friday [Manan Vatsyayana/AFP]
At the same time, Vietnam announced that Iranian and Italian travellers will be subjected to a 14-day quarantine upon arriving in the country.
WHO has declared a global health emergency over the virus, and on Friday, the UN health agency said it is is "getting bigger" by the day.
Park of the WHO in Vietnam said the fight against the virus in the country is "far from over", sounding the alarm on the increasing global transmissions.
"We are at a critical juncture in the outbreak. Countries, including Vietnam, should use this time to prepare for the possibility of wider transmission."
SOURCE: Al Jazeera News

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Who is vulnerable to coronavirus? So far children appear safe from COVID-19 - ABC News
Posted 6h

So far, no children have been reported as having serious complications.(Reuters: Tyrone Siu)
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As Australian authorities prepare for the coronavirus outbreak to be declared a global pandemic, health experts say there is already good evidence about who is most at risk from COVID-19.
Key points:

• Doctors have been quick to analyse who has been suffering serious complications of coronavirus
• Children who contracted the virus overseas have only had mild symptoms
• In China, those most at risk of dying were aged over 70

The good news is that children seem to be safe from severe symptoms.
Chief medical officer Dr Brendan Murphy said one of the surprising features about the virus was how few children seemed to have been identified as infected.
"It's very unusual compared to influenza," he said.
"We don't know whether children might be getting the disease but [their symptoms] are so mild they are not being picked up, or they're not becoming sick, or whether they are somehow less susceptible."
Professor Robert Booy from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance said for some reason children appeared to be getting a mild dose of COVID-19.
"Those children who did contract the virus overseas have only had mild symptoms such as fever and upper respiratory symptoms," he said.
So far, no children have been reported as having serious complications, but that is not the case for adults, particularly older ones.
"In adults, they are reacting quite violently because perhaps they have seen a previous coronavirus infection and that's set up the immune system to react inappropriately and excessively," Professor Booy said.
Who is most likely to get COVID-19?
Unlike previous disease outbreaks, doctors across the world have been quick to analyse just who has been suffering serious complications of coronavirus.
One of the largest studies looked at more than 72,000 patients with COVID-19 from China.
Researchers found most people only developed mild symptoms, and those with mild symptoms did not die.
The fatalities occurred in people who already had serious health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, high blood pressure or cancer.

The most common symptoms are fever, fatigue, a dry cough and feeling unwell.(AP: Claudio Furlan/Lapresse)
No deaths occurred in children, and those most at risk of dying were aged over 70, with an even greater death rate in people aged over 80.
Another paper in the Journal of the American Medical Association analysed who was ending up in hospital in China with pneumonia from COVID-19.
Of the 138 patients, more than half were men with a median age of 56.
The most common symptoms they suffered were fever, fatigue, a dry cough and feeling unwell.
Less common symptoms were headache, dizziness, abdominal pain and diarrhoea.
To treat COVID-19, patients were given a cocktail of antibiotics treatments.
While one third of the patients were healthy enough to be discharged from hospital, six of them died from the illness.
The findings point Australian experts to where resources need to be deployed.
Professor Booy said Australia needed to focus on older people living in aged care and the elderly still living at home, as they were most at risk.
"People with chronic medical conditions of the lung or the heart also need to be closely monitored," he said.
How many Australians are likely to get COVID-19?
While some health experts have suggested the majority of Australians could become infected, Professor Booy said that was unlikely.
"I think with our containment approach, we can keep it down to well under 50 per cent of the population getting sick," he said.
"That's still a lot and I would like to see it down to 10 to 20 per cent of people."
He said authorities needed to act promptly to prevent it spreading.
"This is a highly transmissible virus. It's surprising how transmissible it is. It is really quite worrying," Professor Booy said.
Professor Booy said countries with strong border controls like Australia now had the virus spreading in the community.
While several cases have been reported in Australia, he said COVID-19 would eventually affect a significant percentage of the population.
"It could be within a few weeks. it could be one to two months, [but] it's going to come here," he said.
"I don't think we can stop this."
Advice for everyone: keep your distance

How coronavirus sparked a global emergency
Even though research has shown that COVID-19 is more likely to be a severe illness in older people, experts say it is wise to treat everyone with "caution and respect".
"Anyone could transmit the infection to you," Professor Booy said.
"So smile, don't shake hands, keep a good distance away from other people."
Practice good hand hygiene with frequent hand washing, disposing of tissues and sneezing into the crook of your arm.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Many of us may well catch Covid-19, and we must learn to live with it

• Covid-19 could be a once-in-a-century pandemic disease like Spanish flu. Indeed, social-distancing measures being adopted now are not unlike those taken a century ago. But shouldn’t we find new ways to get on with life?

Published: 9:30am, 4 Mar, 2020
Updated: 9:30am, 4 Mar, 2020
In 2007, four disease experts at the University of Hong Kong published a paper on Sars, in which they concluded: “The presence of a large reservoir of Sars-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb.” Now, that time bomb is going off – and we might be witnessing the onset of a pandemic of a kind not seen for 100 years.
Compared to regular bombs, this may seem slow, even a non-event. Yet consider this: about six weeks have passed since January 22, when the disease caused by the Sars-CoV-2 virus and known as Covid-19 hit the global headlines as the Chinese government was about to impose a lockdown on Wuhan, the city at the centre of the outbreak.
At the time, there were 17 reported deaths; that figure has since surged past 3,000 – over 170 times higher – and the coronavirus has spread to 64 countries and territories worldwide.
Although the World Health Organisation seems wary of declaring a pandemic, the P-word is being increasingly used. And not simply as a media scare, or political hoax.

Guan Yi, director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at HKU, has extensive experience of researching viruses including bird flu and severe acute respiratory syndrome. Yet after a visit to Wuhan in January, he told Caixin magazine, “I've never felt scared. This time I'm scared.”
Not long afterwards, Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told The Sunday Times of London that the new coronavirus was likely to become a pandemic.
Interviewed by The Atlantic, Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch forecast that within the coming year, about 40 to 70 per cent of people around the world will be infected with the coronavirus. Similarly, Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at HKU, told The Guardian that the virus is so transmissible, it could infect 60 per cent of the world’s population.
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Of course, this doesn’t mean that 60 per cent of the world’s population will die from the coronavirus. But nor will they all get well soon, after little more than a slight cough. Based on current knowledge, about 15 per cent of people may need hospital treatment, with a third of these requiring intensive care, and some of them will die. Estimates of the death rate vary, but it seems to be from 1 to 3 per cent of cases.
That puts the death rate well below those for diseases like Ebola, Sars and Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers). But it is similar to the two per cent mortality rate estimated for Spanish flu, which sparked a major pandemic in 1918, infecting around a third of the world’s population and killing perhaps 50 million people.
This flu was mentioned in two New England Journal of Medicine articles on the coronavirus last week, including one by Bill Gates who noted that “Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about”.
While Covid-19 is a respiratory disease like Spanish flu, and it primarily causes lung damage, it is more deadly for older adults than for healthy young men – unlike Spanish flu. But the parallels Gates and others have noted make it worthwhile to look back at the history of Spanish flu.
Perusing photos taken during the Spanish flu pandemic, it is striking how familiar some scenes look, especially those with ordinary people, doctors and nurses wearing face masks, or patients lying on camp beds in makeshift hospitals – not unlike the images emerging from Hubei province, and its capital Wuhan.
There are also scenes of various events being held outdoors, where it was hopefully safer, during the pandemic of 1918: a court hearing, a university class, a church service.
Back then, the United States took measures like limiting large gatherings and closing saloons, dance halls and cinemas, according to an article on a Stanford University website. Britain shortened music hall performances. Switzerland suspended theatres, cinemas, concerts and shooting events.
The social-distancing measures taken during the Spanish flu outbreak are related to the community-wide containment measures being adopted on an unprecedented scale in Hubei. Today in Hong Kong, travel is restricted, schools are closed, various events are cancelled, and many people are working from home: measures which seem effective, as the city has recorded only about 100 cases of Covid-19 so far.
But the cost of the most extreme, or draconian, quarantine measures is immense, whether in economic or social terms (think of the stifling of everyday life). The coronavirus looks set to outlast the measures, and we may have to find ways to live with this disease, at least until a vaccine becomes available – if it does.
Trust in the public authorities should be crucial, yet panic buying and widespread mask-wearing in Hong Kong are proof that such trust is lacking. China suppressed early warnings about the coronavirus, and is now fighting to control the narrative – it is even planning a book about the country’s epic war on the “demon” virus.
Spanish Flu did not emerge from Spain; it was reported in the Spanish media that was not censored during the first world war. In contrast, US officials at the time lied about the severity of the epidemic, with the surgeon general claiming there was “no cause for alarm”.
Yet, with the disease proving contagious and often lethal, Americans knew it was no ordinary flu. The Smithsonian Magazine quoted a survivor as recalling: “We were actually almost afraid to breathe … You were afraid even to go out …”
Today in Hong Kong, too many people are afraid to breathe in unfiltered air, even in country parks. But such fears might be largely misplaced, as they were during Sars. Instead, more care is needed with regard to touching surfaces, and then food, the mouth, nose and eyes: hence the advice on washing hands.
Writing for ORMS Today, Richard C. Larson at MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems and Society has suggested that the coronavirus could be spread via not just respiratory but also intestinal routes: something I already believed, given how the Sars outbreak at Amoy Gardens in 2003 was linked to sewage pipes, and a recent coronavirus case in a Tsing Yi block of flats may be connected to bathroom pipes.
Whatever the transmission routes, the coronavirus may infect regions in waves, just as the Spanish flu did, including in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, it seems best to eat well, exercise and get enough sleep; remember that, right now, most are not infected, but be wary of people who are coughing. Get on with life, go outside too. And, whenever possible, take off that mask!
Martin Williams is a Hong Kong-based writer specialising in conservation and the environment, with a PhD in physical chemistry from Cambridge University

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